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Anti AI people are seemingly increasingly deluded
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:21 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.:..:. By that I mean people in the Bluesky/Ed Zitron sphere. The central point of their claims isn’t that AI is bad, but that it’s basically fake and the AI house of cards will collapse any day now. They have been saying for several years now that AI won’t get much better than it is now, the benchmarks don’t mean anything and AI companies will soon give up and admit defeat. This was amusing for a while even when it was obvious the scaling hypothesis was true, but it’s seemingly increasingly insane now that we are over 6 months past the release of Opus 4.5. Revenues are exploding, people are increasingly recognizing that agentic models actually work and model releases are still showing regular improvements. Mythos is going to be released in a few weeks (the model that found thousands of cyber vulnerabilities), and surely these people will find a way to dismiss its capabilities like everything before. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49908982) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:50 PM Author: ..,.,.,,,,.,.,..,.,,,.,..,,.,.,,, Counterpoint
If the LLMs really represented an imminent , disruptive force that will displace all white collar work, where are the killer apps?
They’ve been at these things for years, and it’s been nearly 4 years since chat gpt, nearly 2 years since performance gains from pre training have fallen off a cliff. We have yet to see any of this translate to functional, let alone vital, applications outside the area of computer code.
If AI is coming for white collar work, it’s a long, difficult, and uncertain road. That said, it won’t stop dumb companies from fooling themselves into “replacing” workers with AI slop. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:53 PM Author: icanseemyneurons you dont get to see them. they're implementing them at the enterprise level and you will get floored by the giant wave when they decide its your time. hth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909045) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:54 PM Author: ..,.,.,,,,.,.,..,.,,,.,..,,.,.,,, Right. It makes sense they would keep them a secret, what with the imminent IPOs. Don’t want to show your hand (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909047) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:54 PM Author: icanseemyneurons its all being privately financed. don't worry about it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909050) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:56 PM Author: ..,.,.,,,,.,.,..,.,,,.,..,,.,.,,, I will just take the good word of honest guys like Sam Altman and Dario amodei (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909059) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:04 PM Author: Mo Bamba (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909072) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:15 PM Author: Pope Leo XXX (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909080) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:49 PM Author: Mo Bamba (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909149) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:11 PM Author: 67 mythos actually is revolutionary but it is definitely not a turn key product, it still hallucinates, gets things wrong, needs heavy amount of prompting to get good outputs
all this stuff is just a (very effective) tool in the hands of the right people. but that’s really it |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:12 PM Author: icanseemyneurons That's it tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909078) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:17 PM Author: The Penis How much time do you think its actually saving though? Even modest amounts of time saved can quickly scale to decades or centuries across all human research teams. And the "wasted time exploring things" or whatever that I hear sometimes I think isn't an argument for not-saved time it's the opposite direction when you consider that someone can traverse god knows how much ground in like a week that would have taken years before eliminating bad options that would have been a stalled research program. It doesn't have to be effective in everyone when all of the smartest people have access it still is going to result in advancements. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909082) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:25 PM Author: 67 oh absolutely, but the notion that you can just replace everyone with AI is retarded. there are very few skilled jobs (data entry, sending emails, and administrative tasks are not a skilled jobs) where it could actually replace people rather than just making competent people more effective
every time paul graham mentions “AGI” i roll my eyes. it is being massively oversold but that’s doesn’t mean it isn’t a revolutionary tool for certain tasks |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:25 PM Author: The Penis Oh yeah I agree with that for sure (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909094) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:29 PM Author: Mo Bamba ???? but if it makes competent people more effective, then some of the competent people lose their jobs as companies realize they don't need as many. so that's replacing people, no? maybe "displacing" is more accurate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909100) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:43 PM Author: 67 maybe, but in my admittedly narrow experience every job i’ve had we have been constantly hiring even when the company is laying off thousands of fake job people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909134) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:46 PM Author: Mo Bamba probably depends how the company is doing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909138) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:26 PM Author: cowgod You clearly know nothing about the State of Gaming. “Killer apps” require Huge Teams, immense budgets. And a 6-12 year Runway. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909095) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:30 PM Author: ,.,....,..,.,.,,,,..,..,.,..,.,.,.,... labs are still hardware constrained and there are easier gains from post-training. post-training gains tend to be narrower and more domain specific, but they are large and especially important for the tasks that matter the most currently for enterprise customers (agentic tasks, especially coding). Mythos and Spud are apparently larger models (especially Mythos), so pre-training gains are happening. by 2030, they'll likely be able to afford training runs in the quadrillions of parameters (although I have to wonder whether that will be justified - recurrent/looped transformers are probably the most logical way to exploit greater compute). there are many ideas out there that could be exploited if labs had orders of magnitude more compute. the compute ceiling will be lifted substantially over the coming years, so large performance improvements even with no new ideas are inevitable.
for agentic coding tasks, the performance increases over the last year have been very large. guess what task matters the most for recursive self-improvement loops? |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:11 PM Author: ..,.,.,,,,.,.,..,.,,,.,..,,.,.,,, Ok that sounds great but it is still dogshit at basic legal reasoning. (Not bad at research though). It can’t generate consistent work product outputs (yet). It hallucinates like a mother fucker still. “It” here being the frontier models available to use either directly or with a wrapper like Harvey.
So what am I supposed to believe? That in a year’s time, all these problems (known for many years now) will be fixed and there will be an agentic wrapper that truly integrates with the systems humans use like PACER without a high error rate, and that professional licensing orgs/malpractice insurers will modify standards to allow true delegation to AI agents?
We aren’t even close to any of this shit being possible. It’s going to take years, if it can ever happen at all. Anyone who says otherwise is just extrapolating based on what has happened (maybe) in the coding world, an area where iteration / true state quality checking happens over seconds, not years (like in law or accounting or medicine ). |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:24 PM Author: everything is biology (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909290) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:49 PM Author: ,.,....,..,.,.,,,,..,..,.,..,.,.,.,... i agree there are plenty of problems like that. model unreliability in domains that aren't strongly trained for with RL, problems with context rot, only weak forms of continual learning are possible within the context window, problems with out of distribution generalization, problems created by the encoding schemes they use with tokens.
the people that are worried about the near-term implications generally know all this but see the exponential trend in the METR time horizon graph and other similar data points and worry about the implications of this for AI research. optimizing for generalization error of an architecture or training scheme, factual accuracy with respect to a dataset and ability to continual learn have clear evaluation outcomes and are perfectly suited to agentic coding. you can fire up Opus right now and it could design and run all sorts of experiments to run to evaluate alternate forms of AI. plenty of the ideas will be dogshit, but it knows all the human AI literature and will increasingly have its own generated AI data to be retrained on. meanwhile training compute resources are going to continue to grow exponentially at least for several more years, which will allow the models to get better if just they continue to do more of the same, which further helps with the agentic AI research. there's a feedback loop here now, and in all likelihood it's going to become stronger. |
Date: May 31st, 2026 6:22 PM Author: icanseemyneurons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49908985) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:34 PM Author: everything is biology the inherent technical limitations of LLMs are not ever going to magically disappear
they can't think, they can't plan, they don't do anything but predict text. they are going to continue to get better and better at computer stuff, because computer stuff is all based on text. and computers can do a lot of stuff, so they will be increasingly useful as long as energy costs stay below whatever threshold is needed
the problem with Computer People - among many problems with Computer People - is that they think that computers are the real world. when a Computer Person says that "LLMs are going to do everything," they're not lying, because for Computer People, "everything" is computers. it's kind of like how women don't even perceive unattractive men as existing, so whenever they are commenting on or thinking about "men," they are only thinking of attractive chad men
this leads to a lot of tedious semantic confusion surrounding LLMs and AI because Computer People are unable to perceive that there is a world outside of Computers, and that LLMs will never be capable of navigating this world, so they are constantly saying bizarre and ridiculous things about LLM future capabilities and trajectories that confuse and frighten non-Computer People |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:35 PM Author: Mo Bamba 180 and cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909015) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:55 PM Author: The Penis Can't think, can't plan is factually false. and "computer people" doesn't mean much when computers are used in most 2026 jobs either directly or indirectly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909054) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:03 PM Author: Mo Bamba I didn't read "Computer People" as people with jobs that use computers
but I disagree with his assumption that LLMs will never be able to navigate the world, as embodied AI is and will presumably continue to be built on LLMs. I just agree about where it is now and why people talk past each other. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:07 PM Author: The Penis But llms apply to everything people use a computer for. Researchers in chemistry or biology aren't computer engineers, but alpha fold still compressed decades or more research into like 3 years. Protein folding had been an open problem for what like 50 years? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909074) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:12 PM Author: Mo Bamba yeah it's possible he's underestimating how widely applicable LLMs are, I just like his point about people talking past each other because some people overvalue Computer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909077) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:15 PM Author: everything is biology LLMs can approximate "thinking" and "planning" when the environment is text-only. it's what a contemporary LLM is doing when it is producing conversational or coding output
but the real world is not text-based. there is no way to create an "irl LLM." the real world is essentially infinite compared to the very narrow environment of text and cannot be "tokenized" the way that text can be
every time this is pointed out to LLM maximalists they avoid addressing it, handwave it away, or just make up ridiculous lies claiming that "it will just Happen, okay?!??!" real-world AI is definitely possible, and imo even inevitable on a long enough time scale with a stable human society that can maintain an environment that can support research into it. but it won't look anything like LLMs and we are not even *remotely close* to it |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:19 PM Author: The Penis Well yeah I agree with this if you are talking "real world" as in like sentient superhuman robots walking around everywhere. But I think you are underestimating how powerful "text based" AI is and the degree to which it is coupled to the real world when humans are constantly interacting with it, even if it isn't a primary coupling. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909084) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:28 PM Author: everything is biology the danger here is that Computer People and their capitalist enablers will attempt to warp IRL into an environment that is maximally divorced from physical reality and maximally matches digital/text-based LLM reality - because that is what would be convenient and self-serving for them
that is: if you cannot create an AI that can dominate the real world, you instead change the real world into something that AI can dominate
this has, of course, already been happening for some time. historically, pre-AI technology and capitalism have already caused society to follow this pattern and AI will only accelerate it |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:31 PM Author: The Penis Yeah I can see this happening. I mean it already has to an enormous extent just with pre-ai information tech. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909104) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:33 PM Author: Mo Bamba I think you're right. should we destroy all the data centers with an electromagnetic weapon? |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:41 PM Author: everything is biology unironically, yes, but we are going to have to do so much more than that too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909130) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:43 PM Author: Mo Bamba cr, what else (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909133) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:53 PM Author: everything is biology have you seen the mission impossible movie with the villain who wants to trigger Ragnarok by engineering a worldwide nuclear holocaust (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909159) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:56 PM Author: Mo Bamba I have not. is that your suggested course of action? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909165) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:58 PM Author: everything is biology just Starting A Conversation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909169) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:00 PM Author: Mo Bamba (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909174) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:24 PM Author: Kenneth Play (emotional girth) i hear you on this argument, but all it takes for "real world" stuff to also be done by computer, is better sensors (i.e. devices who translate the real world into computers) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909203) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:28 PM Author: Mo Bamba agreed, people are building robots around LLMs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909207) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:28 PM Author: everything is biology this falls about halfway between the "handwaving it away" and "it will just Happen, okay??!?" categories described above (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909210) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 10:49 PM Author: Kenneth Play (emotional girth) *shrug* we're not there now, but it's trivial that we'll get there. i'd be interested to hear what jobs are the toughest to replace with AI in your view (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909468) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:16 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (oppose bitchbois) THIS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909276) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:42 PM Author: Juan Eighty Anti AI chad here
can any bort AI bros explain to me how creating a hyperintelligent, all-powerful being ends well for humanity? |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:49 PM Author: Book1.xlsx It's helping computer people jobs be easy for a couple years until everything collapses (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909041) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 6:53 PM Author: icanseemyneurons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909046) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:19 PM Author: Juan Eighty oh nice (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909196) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:18 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I use the shit constantly and it’s still a long way from replacing anyone. Definitely not yet an invention on the order of the internet. I used the thing to ‘help’ me do like 4 home improvement projects this weekend and it was wrong 2/3rds of the time. Took a snapshot of my hot tub innards and asked where the UV bulb goes, and it confidently identified every other goddamn thing first before the actual UV unit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909083) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:20 PM Author: Mo Bamba "a long way from replacing anyone" is crazy. even if it can't FULLY replace a given PROFESSION, that doesn't mean it isn't actively replacing people in that field as companies realize they can downsize their teams now that people are increasing productivity with AI. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909085) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:32 PM Author: cowgod And yet as we speak, AAA Studios still have Huge Teams… (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909105) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:47 PM Author: The Penis Games aren't just "engineering" though, they are a Lifestyle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909140) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:48 PM Author: Mo Bamba (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909142) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:55 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Yeah sure; I always tell the story on here that I quit hiring SAs after I realized that AI got me similar research quality in a couple seconds to what an SA would put out in a couple days.
But for legal research--and I say this as a financially successful lawyer whose main limiting reagent to making even more $$$ is the lack of smart attorneys for me to hire--this shit has really not gotten much better in the last 2 years. I don't know or care or have any way of knowing about its improvements in other fiends, let alone on some gay af benchmark mmlu/GSM8K test or whatever (which literally no one gives a fuck about *except* the ppl hawking AI to investors).
But if this thing goes to the moon like the SV hucksters tell us it will, then it *WILL* make me a lot of money for a period of time before it replaces me too. And we're just not there yet, and things feel stalled as fuck. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 7:23 PM Author: The Penis I'm sure it has already displaced like a million jobs maybe several million worldwide in the past 5 years. Who the hell needs a research assistant or a junior engineer or a paralegal if they have current frontier AI? Replacing full humans in the sense of having "fully autonomous systems" in full place of a human I agree with you is further out. I think more likely will be semi-autonomous human-in-the-loop systems displacing massive amounts of jobs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909090) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:19 PM Author: cowgod This sounds right but it's marginal af and like 0.03% worldwide
far more jobs were displaced just by Forcing Gen X To Work Harder tbh |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 10:00 PM Author: .,.....,.,.;,.,,,:,.,.,::,...,:,..;,.., me being perpetually shitfaced and eyeballing it for stuff that is constantly broken in my house is still better than “ai” in its current state. All it does is write emails for esl fobs and allow big tech to layoff a bunch of them while still saving face. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909356) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:28 PM Author: Kenneth Play (emotional girth) if it is replacing jobs (or does replace jobs) that means that productivity is going way up. historically when stuff like the steam engine or the railroads came in, there were some workers who lost, but overall the cost of living got way lower for humanity as a whole. i saw bezos on this say AI could be a force to decrease the cost of food for example, as everyone has more capability (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909208) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:20 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (oppose bitchbois) “decrease the cost of food” Because AI tractors will plan more efficient planting strategies and AI illegal immigrants will pick strawberries faster. This is the biggest fucking flame I’ve ever heard. Bro just said decrease the cost of food bc he knows that proles are upset about food prices, and he (wrongly) thinks they’re so fucking stupid they’ll stop protesting data centers if some bald dork tells them it’s going to make food cheaper. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:30 PM Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,, I asked ChatGTP yesterday where I could stream the basketball game because all the last ones were on Peacock which I don't have - it popped up 600 lines of text telling me all about the Spurs matchup and told me I could stream it on ESPN and YoutubeTV.
I fire up ESPN and it's not there. I ask ChatGTP and it's like "You're right - it's not on ESPN, its on Peacock, the media rights deal has changed".
I used to think that AI would replace paralegals in hte next few years, but I don't even think that's the case anymore. 70% of their job is meeting with humans and figuring out wtf they're actually trying to do legally - AI will probably never be able to do that. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 8:56 PM Author: cannon Its training materials are outdated you have to tell it explicitly sometimes to research. Otherwise it can be lazy af (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909250) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:33 PM Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,, I guess I don't understand - if it was as simple as saying "take your time and get this right" - then why wouldn't the programmers (or the AI) build that into the proesses by default? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909309) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:37 PM Author: Mo Bamba it's more expensive (requires more computational power) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909315) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:15 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (oppose bitchbois) I used to take Zitron as gospel, but then I tried the new AI interfaces on hotels.com, DoorDash, Word, and Acrobat, so now I believe Sam and Dario. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909275) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:20 PM Author: icanseemyneurons thanks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909280) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:21 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (oppose bitchbois) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909284) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:35 PM Author: Richard Ames I enjoy Ed Zitron in that he's something of a throwback and he has a great sense of humor. He strikes me a bit like old school Milo Yiannopoulos in terms of his mannerisms. Very amusing.
But he will claim that AI isn't in the early innings and he's just wrong. All of the job "replacement" stuff is coming down the pike in the form of industry-specific agentic workflow solutions. Every industry has an insane amount of highly repeatable, lower skill white collar "work" centered around things like compliance or any other "middle office" type of work that amounts to taking information from one place, organizing it in some fashion, and then dropping it into another place.
Tons of AI companies are emerging that are built around industry-specific needs to handle these tasks. And all of them will use the inference layer that is provided by the LLM companies to make it work.
Zitron will say things like "Claude's true cost is $5,000 or $10,000 a month! Who will pay for that?!?" And it's like, uhh, if $60k - $120k per year can automate tons of highly repeatable "middle office" process work, almost every company on Earth will pay for this and then hire fewer people to do these "jobs."
We've all seen those email girl "day in the life at LinkedIn" videos where they don't do any work and just basically send some emails...countless millions (billions?) are being spent on these sorts of "jobs" today. They might not all get nuked overnight, but over time fewer and fewer new people will be hired into these "jobs." And productivity of people who actually do real and value creating work will increase dramatically.
Bill Gates is a faggot, but I think he said "people overestimate what can happen in two years, but underestimate what can happen in 10." This quote describes Zitron and many, many of the "it's all a big bubble and it's going to go away!" detractors. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:46 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,. They keep promising industry specific agents but I haven't seen any great ones. The ones I've used all suck and end up needing more correction than competent human employees would. Do you have examples of companies doing this well? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909328) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:49 PM Author: Richard Ames We are basically in the actual first inning of this. Yes there is a ton of crap out there now, I totally agree on that point. But this will take some time. I believe this is also what is driving the absurd data center buildout (which is not without its own bumps in the road.) The sheer amount of computing power is enormous. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909333) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 9:49 PM Author: everything is biology this line of reasoning is mistaken imo. the majority of these jobs that you're describing are make-work jobs that exist because of "non-economic" factors: affirmative action, government largesse, unnecessary regulation, political pressure, internal politics within large orgs, etc
i see this same sentiment being eagerly expressed by other pro-AI people on "the right": "Heh, all the email girls will lose their jobs now! This is awesome! AI is awesome!" but this is not what's going to happen. the email girls will mostly keep their jobs. those "jobs" have never existed for economic reasons. they exist for the other reasons i listed above
if anything, i think that these kind of make-work jobs will actually INCREASE. there will be additional regulation created to "manage" AI. there will be additional government jobs and affirmative action mandates enacted. as companies become increasingly profitable by firing their workers who do actual work (like coders), they will have more capacity to hire sinecured "employees" to leech off the teat and serve as allies in internal corporate political struggles
whenever i talk to people about AI i always tell them the same thing: AI is just going to accelerate and intensify trends in our society that already exist, because it's just another piece of advanced technology in a society that is already ruled by advanced technology. our society has already been trending toward more and more fake jobs and more and more redistribution toward the unproductive for decades now. AI is going to intensify this, as it will intensify other existing social trends (alienation, deracination, political conflict, etc) |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 10:03 PM Author: Richard Ames I hear what you are saying and actually regret the "email girl job" reference because it is easy to react to and ignore the broader implications of AI workflow automation. Forget about Mega Corp Big Tech for a moment. Think more broadly about the vast middle market that drives the non-tech economy.
The example I use frequently is in the trucking space. There is an enormous amount of compliance paperwork associated with transporting loads (:-D) that is currently handled by low skill white collar workers with enormous turnover. The kind of $18 an hour job that no one wants, but is essential to moving goods. Thousands of people are in these jobs (most of them don't want to be) and far fewer people will be needed for this sort of work going forward.
There are many, many industries with jobs that amount to niche data processing where there may be some nuance involved. How does AI not transform these industries completely and eliminate a ton of these kinds of jobs?
Finally, to circle back to the email girl example. Do you really think the same number of email girls will enter each new class of employees at these companies? It won't happen overnight, but over time it will be phased out.
I think the same thing will happen to law. It's not that law firms will suddenly collapse and be replaced by AI. But a confluence of factors, all related to AI, will massively change it as an industry:
--Fewer people will go to law school because of (justified) concerns about what AI will do to the legal field --Law firms will have a smaller pool of talent to choose from and said talent will be different (from a quality standpoint) than it was a decade ago --As the tools get better and better, clients will start to do more work in house
Look at what's become of medicine even before LLMs. You rarely see a doctor. And in many cases, Nurse Practitioners (who require far less schooling) can now do much of what a normal GP can do. |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 10:12 PM Author: everything is biology the number of lawyers will actually increase imo. lawyers own the legal system, so they will simply make it illegal to use AI in law in order to protect their already-existing labor monopoly
for the trucking example: i agree that it *seems like* AI *should* be an enabling tool to eliminate all of these jobs. how i look at it in general is: it was already possible to "automate" all of these kind of jobs with industry-specific tailored software. a lot of industries have in fact done this over the years. so if an industry hasn't done this already, there is almost certainly another reason(s) why those jobs still exist as human jobs and haven't been automated away by non-AI software technology. it can be a lot of reasons: flexibility, plausible deniability/capability to skirt or break laws, or any of the other possible reasons i listed above
i think that what you're saying will definitely be right for some cases. but overall, i think things will trend in the other direction, like i said. i just don't see any reason to believe that for some reason, this technology will be Different and will somehow reverse the seemingly inexorable trends that have already been happening for the entire post-ww2 modern era |
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Date: May 31st, 2026 10:38 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; People who argue that energy and compute have already emerged as limiting factors are correct. But per above that basically means there will be a longer process of price pressure to innovate more efficient options and to have the AI foundational model companies rationalize their costs and stop pretending that everyone who works for them is a genius who deserves to make 800k a year while they wait for their 10:1 $50M lottery ticket pre-IPO stock to vest. You are behind but not yet totally screwed if you haven’t found an angle to position yourself as the AI-knowledgeable version of your role that can point to improvements and efficiencies that AI lets you unlock. And if you’re a lawyer the bar is stupidly low and there will still be a role for detractors and naysayers who can channel their negative sentiment into what effectively becomes QA for agentic AI replacements of tasks currently performed by humans. But if you want to be gainfully employed in 2030, let alone 2035 and beyond you have to lean into gleefully helping to build out the tech that will take yer jerb and find ways to describe your knowledge of how that tech replaces you as an asset that companies need to retain to make the AI trains run on time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5870287&forum_id=2)#49909441) |