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What is honestly going on with IRAN right now?
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:01 PM Author: ""'"''"" Media feels heavily controlled right now. Feels like even critical voices are not saying something that they all know. Meanwhile "conservatives" have descended into jingoistic groupthink. Knowledgeable people, please summarize in clear language where we are. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870006) |
Date: May 6th, 2026 3:08 PM Author: oomox What media do you watch? All legacy media lies ESPECIALLY at wartime. I recommend the YT channel Breaking Points to keep up. The hosts are a combo of right-wing populists and left-wing populists. They have great coverage.
Idk what info you're seeing so I don't know what to go into but basically Iran carries nearly all the cards. Actually I haven't kept up this week so that might be outdated info |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:09 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., Lol no they don't (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870054) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:23 PM Author: ""'"''"" Tbh with you I have suspected as much, but it feels hard to understand how such a horrible strategic blunder could have happened. Despite the president being an idiot, it's hard to believe there are no checks and balances behind the scenes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870096) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:31 PM Author: oomox His advisors are neocons and Zionists. They told him it would be quick and ez like Venezuela. But Iran has been preparing for this for 20 years and their leaders are actually smart. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870108) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:36 PM Author: ""'"''"" Is there any way for Trump to just withdraw and pretend the US won? Seems hard given that they aren't going to surrender any nuclear materials. If they reopen the strait of hormuz, isn't it possible that the US population is so dumb they won't realize it was open before? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870114) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:37 PM Author: oomox That's what most of us are hoping for. Seems like the only way out. Give up but get some crumb of something he can exaggerate to his remaining base to sound like a win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870118) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:40 PM Author: ""'"''"" So did the US actually escort any ships through the Strait of Hormuz or was that all completely made up? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870131) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:42 PM Author: oomox Not sure actually. I don't see how they could've but I've been slacking on following everything the past week or so (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870139) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:58 PM Author: ""'"''"" I don't really get how having an "escort" would protect a ship and allow it to pass. Also, lol at that Russian oligarch who just rolled his yacht through there like nothing had happened. Nice blockade the US has going on there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870208) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 4:00 PM Author: gibberish (?) A blockade doesn't mean all traffic. It can only target ships porting in Iran and it has to be nation neutral. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870215) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 4:00 PM Author: Medieval Pilgrimage Architecture #BrianJacques, tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870218) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:13 PM Author: SickoMode Glenn Diesen and Dropsite News has good coverage too. This war has been a disaster for USA from day 1. Not surprised Trump waved the white flag today. Basically deep state neocons and Israel convinced Trump decapitating Iranian leadership would lead to regime change and that Iran wouldn’t dare retaliate against Israel and GCC states. After Israel and GCC states got a few rounds of retaliatory ass whoopings and Iran asserted control of Strait of Hormuz it was checkmate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870073) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:14 PM Author: oomox (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870075) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:25 PM Author: ""'"''"" There really is no way out of this, is there? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870099) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:42 PM Author: gibberish (?) Yeah it's in late summer when the US crashes oil prices and lifts the embargo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870136) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:31 PM Author: Giant Naked Hitler (hitler did nothing wrong) We won. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870107) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:41 PM Author: gibberish (?) Iran is fractured internally. Units are terrified to use a phone or radio coms so there is a lot of autonomy for their forward units which has caused some further inconsistency. Iran probably only used half of their munitions during the active phase of the military campaign. Most of what they'd attack a ship in the Persian Gulf is stored miles away from shore. The little speed boats they send out are basically to go collect tolls. They could hit a ship anywhere in the Gulf. As long as they can fire off a shitty drone they will have some leverage.
It appears as though they are at storage capacity for oil. The US seems to have allowed empty tankers through the strait which Oran is using as spare capacity. I think this shows the US really does not want to leave a long term impact. However, Iran could be facing irreversible geological collapse of some of its wells if they have to stop pumping. There were reports of an oil slick around Kharg Island recently. I bet they star dumping oil rather than risk their wells long term.
Nothing we're hearing in the press or even from the administration is on the up and up. The US has run every scenario through AI models. They knew the strait would be closed. I suspect the US always wanted to exploit the ability to blockade. It's good for American oil and harms China. It's also forced a realignment in SE Asia. There was a recent wave of security agreements signed in the region. The timing was too perfect if you wanted to kick start investment in say Venezuela or break up OPEC. The petrodollar comes out king. Keep in mind this entire operation is aimed at China.
https://x.com/teomoneyeast/status/2044886693472526552 |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 3:46 PM Author: gibberish (?) https://id.usembassy.gov/hegseth-indonesian-counterpart-announce-defense-partnership/
This was for the other strait nobody is talking about. But control of both makes Chinese plans to hit Taiwan in the next year or two very difficult. I think part of the war aim was also to draw down Chinese reserves. They need a shit ton of oil on hand before they can even contemplate an attack on Taiwan. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:10 PM Author: SickoMode They dont call you gibberish for nothing huh? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870379) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:30 PM Author: gibberish (?) Yeah it all looks like gibberish until you step back. My favorite op was the Nikki Minaj bit at the UN. I don't know who got to her but that was hilarious. Nigeria is an excellent example of what's going on. They have the second largest oil reserves on the continent and the population will surpass the US in the next 20 years (fucking nuts). China has invested billions in infrastructure to move oil and goods. China really needs sources of energy that don't pass through choke points like Singapore or SoH. However, China is just there to extract.
The US sidestepped all of that investment. The US moved past extraction and invested billions in a domestic Nigerian refinery, positioning us as partners instead of pure exploitation. However, along with the refinery comes access to US oil extraction experts and logistics. Nigerian firms are tied to US oil companies. Next was the security arrangement with the Nigerian government, which put the nail in the Chinese coffin. The pretext was Christian persecution, but that was way up north and the target of the eventual US strikes just so happened to be the prime enemy of the current regime (note that the oil areas are dominated by Christian populations). Once oil was under US influence and guaranteed through US military protection, in come the data centers to lock it all up. Lol Nikki Minaj was the face of the soft power influence and provided cover for the US military actions back in December.
This little tidbit from a Bloomberg article captures it just about perfectly and it's what you would read on the surface as a norm.
+4 Nigeria is experiencing a $1 billion+ investment surge in AI-ready data centers, with major players like Microsoft, Equinix, and Open Access Data Centres building capacity in Lagos to support AI workloads and a tech-savvy population. While Nigeria leads in AI adoption (88%), it faces severe power constraints, forcing reliance on private gas/diesel power, with the first dedicated AI data center expected in 2026. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:31 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; What’s darkly funny about this war and its coverage is that none of the Breaking Points hosts nor anyone who works at Drop Site would be able to follow what you’re saying well enough to respond to it intelligently, but neither could Trump or Hegseth. We have reached a level of retards scuffling heretofore unseen and the result will be hundreds of thousands of dead Iranian civilians.
The most important lesson of the coverage of the war (and all Iran coverage since the January massacre) is that the IRGC pulls a string and their tankie supporters in the west bleat out whatever they’re fed, and the Tucker/Vance rightoid faction are trying to follow along closely enough to box out Rubio, but they all sound pathetic and idiotic to anyone who bothers to read about the war for more than 5 minutes and has a triple digit IQ. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:36 PM Author: fag attorney what he posted was gibberish. and your "I'm so above it all and the tankies and tuckers are wrong" make me suspect you hvae no idea what's going on either (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870458) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:52 PM Author: ""'"''"" Tbf, I don't understand what he said and would appreciate a clarification. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870519) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 6:39 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; He said a lot of things but I can draw out a few key points that you won’t be likely to hear on Breaking Points or read on Dropsite let alone on CNN, Fox or CBS. The brunt of the closure of the SoH is being felt by countries east of Iran. The significance of the blockade is that it’s ensured the Iranians are feeling the pain as buyers and their original plan to profit from the war while the rest of the world felt pain is now understood to be bullshit as long as the U.S. keeps the military capacity it currently has in the Gulf.
Asian countries feeling the pain are now coming to the U.S. for relief and signing security agreements and searching out all alternatives (including via China and Russia) to try to protect supply. Between that and (he didn’t say this part but I’m filling in some gaps) the resolve shown so far by GCC countries to punish the IRGC both by enduring the blockade and by cutting off banks/financing that Iran has been using to avoid sanctions pain, the economic cost of the war is now hitting hard within Iran and their currency is further collapsed (just shy of 2M rial per $ ie 20% worse than during the protests in December/January). Unemployment has shot up and there are widespread reports of salaries of extended portions of the security forces (eg cops and army) not being paid.
He did refer to the storage problems the blockade are causing ie Iran is pumping oil it can’t sell so it has to hold onto it (or dump it) and reports differ but estimates are they will exhaust all their storage failsafes by the start of the summer. If that happens and they truly run out of capacity they could be forced to cap mature wells, which means they permanently lose production capacity due to the pressure required being cut off (though a fracktastic U.S. company could still get to it). On top of all that, if you believe that Iran currently has an upper hand to get a better deal in a negotiation than it would’ve gotten prior to the war, it appears that the hardline faction of the IRGC insists that no deal should occur and has increasingly limited access to Mojtaba Khamenei (assuming he’s alive and not a vegetable) to undermine the moderates who have been pushing to get a deal now/soon. Assuming the IRGC hardliners are acting like a second supreme leader veto the odds of a deal are low and the odds that they will fight until a massive internal security problem develops are much higher.
Bottom line is that it’s shifted from 6 weeks ago when Trump was tweeting desperately and retardedly to much more of a “who blinks first” scenario and Trump’s vanity and stubbornness combined with the IRGC hardliners’ zealotry could mean that the blockade goes on for a while. This could allow more time for the U.S. and Israel to figure out a way to get more weapons and logistics to insurgents in Iran and help the massive internal security problem along. The Israelis are desperate to prevent a deal now, which has been the best indicator of any as to where Trump’s headed wrt Iran since last summer. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:07 PM Author: gibberish (?) Yes. As for Israel, our aims have now diverged. They want Iran to break apart and to divorce the Arab areas where the oil is over by the iraqi border and coastline from the Persians in the North and east.
Also I don't think the US really wants to permanently fuck the Iranian wells. We would love a happy Iran without sanctions selling oil to whoever at market rates. No more discounts for China. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 8:30 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870916) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:59 PM Author: Devious Kike hand rubbing "January massacre"
Before we go any further, do you think 30-40,000 Iranians were killed by the Iranian regime in those 2 days? |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 6:08 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Regime media sources admitted to 5k before they scrambled and put out their official 3k number, which means 20k is a reasonable guess factoring in that they have consistently reported numbers that were 20-25% of the real death toll in 99, 09, 17, 19 and 22. But more importantly it’s ghoulish that the IRGC has puppeteered this well enough that they have retarded asshole leftists in the west debating this as if every number discussed isn’t an unacceptable atrocity and as if this same regime hasn’t murdered thousands of unarmed protesters repeatedly for decades. It’s not even atrocity denial it’s poorly executed atrocity minimization that only an utter retard would engage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870572) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:16 PM Author: gibberish (?) I read a report from a guy that broke down the figures based on multiple inputs like body bag orders and other logistical needs to manage all the death. He came up with 20k. I don't know why people here think that's impossible but they'll believe Minneapolis was under attack from ICE. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870753) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:22 PM Author: which is what makes time travel possible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870762) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:23 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., Posters are desperate to believe anything positive about Iran (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870766) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:43 PM Author: a rich inner world (luis) The only comprehensive report I’ve seen so far comes from HRANA and they claimed about 7k confirmed deaths.
Monarchists have been using the 30-40k number to say the Iran war casualties are nothing in comparison. But that’s higher than most of the deadliest battles of any wars so it should be questioned when there’s no data to support it.
Also, Iranians have a history of exaggerating death counts when they’re caught up in revolutionary fervor. Khomeini used to say the shah killed 100k people before the revolution….the number was more like a few thousand |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:54 PM Author: gibberish (?) I'd believe that. However, the purge was a good opportunity to clear out the most vocal opposition. Now what's left is broken and poorer. This along with some renewed patriotism or something like we don't like the regime but we REALLY hate Israel makes it seem like a popular uprising is pretty far fetched. One source of regime change I don't hear about is the regular Iranian army. They've never sat well with the IRGC and have some greater allegiance to the country over the Ayatollah if push came to shove. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870832) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 8:41 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; The HRANA was 20k+ if you added together that 7k number (which was just where they stopped counting and issued a report 50 days out from the first day of the protests) to the “under investigation” number. 30-40k number was something these hardcore Monarchist doctors in Europe came up with aggregating from reported body counts that were actually sourced from hospitals in Iran plus a fair bit of conjecture. The reality is that the regime was documented actively covering up, moving bodies and using mass graves, and they have succeeded in obscuring the scale of the atrocities with the help of retarded tankies in the west. But I don’t think it’s remotely implausible that the regime killed less than half of 1% of the total protesters at protests that happened in all 31 provinces and 100+ cities. It would just be a shoot to kill order that went out and they kept at it for 48 hours, then went to the hospitals and house to house looking for survivors. HRANA also said they arrested 50k, which sounds harder to imagine logistically.
My point is that autistically questioning the precise bodycount is a strategy the IRGC employed to avoid focus on the fact that they committed atrocities that have justified foreign intervention in many other contexts. Srebrenica was 8k. And even more crucially it distracts from what should have been the most obvious takeaway from January: the IRGC are in complete control and totally unrestrained by “Reformists” (lol) or Khamenei. Fucking Larijiani directed the massacre. So above all the NIAC/Trita Parsi/Obama/JCPOA view that all we need to do is empower the Reformists and democracy will flourish was thoroughly and permanently disproven. And yet these NIAC assholes are still on every cable show every night and meeting with Dems in Congress like nothing ever happened. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 8:51 PM Author: a rich inner world (luis) That HRANA “deaths Under investigation” number hasn’t changed for months, so i don’t feel too comfortable adding that figure into the total without any additional info (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870954) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 8:57 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; I mean sure, it’s not confirmed, but 1) they appear to have just stopped bothering on Feb 15 when they had to pivot to covering the lead up to the war and the internet blackout made it impossible anyway 2 weeks later, and 2) the regime is documented covering up at a mass scale so we know for sure that 7k is an undercount. Again we’re already at Srebrenica numbers and likely nowhere close to the correct number. Seems appropriate to move past this specific autistic hang up and worry instead about how to make the lives of the assholes who did this as short as possible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870977) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 9:08 PM Author: Devious Kike hand rubbing If CIA/mossad hadn’t armed some of the so called peaceful protestors maybe it wouldn’t be so deadly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49871001) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 9:56 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; If the CIA/Mossad could put 5M people in the streets in all 31 provinces and 100+ cities the regime would have been gone years ago. If you believe the IRGC lies (or Mike Pompeo’s stupid ass) that the CIA/Mossad had a meaningful role in creating that level of mass protest you are a retarded tankie dipshit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49871176) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:00 PM Author: gibberish (?) Yeah I don't even mention Trump. He probably influences some tactical decisions in terms of time-frames and approaches to a situation but he's given something like jury instructions. Basic aims and goals are set based on a much larger scale. As for the media nobody with a real audience is going to connect Venezuela to Mexican cartels to Nikki Minaj to Iran to Myanmar and access to helium. But all of it is part of the same project.
I don't do well with domestic political shit. I assume the 2028 nom is between Vance and Rubio factions. Overall, the basic premise of our foreign policy has broad nonpartisan support though. China is a necessary enemy but their power has fallen. Chinese GDP as a percentage of US GDP peaked around 2022 and the gap has grown dramatically since then. They are looking at a demographic nightmare.
The US has one policy aim that is shared; global population will peak soon and decline by the end of the century and AI is the chosen solution. We're already seeing big gains in productivity. Thats why nobody cares about the national debt because it's all worth it if the US establishes the AI infrastructure the world will run on. The new power will be computation. China has 800 data centers, the US has over 4,000 and it's pedal to the metal. I don't know if we'll see data centers in space like Elon wants, but that's like Reagan's star wars system that fucked the USSR without ever even getting built. |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 4:03 PM Author: ,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,...,:,.,..:.,:.::,. they need to start carrying out retaliatory assassinations/decapitations. that was beyond the pale. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870224) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:12 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., Who Iran? Good luck with that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870386) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 5:31 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface What is going on with Iran? I tell you! They fuck you! They fuck you, motherfucker! They fuck you, they fuck your wife, they fuck your kids, they fuck your politics, they fuck your big war boats, and they fuck your decadent lululemon yoga pants and landscaped lawns and your fucking Gogurt! Motherfucker!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870439) |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:01 PM Author: Hello, World! This is the biggest news if give it a thought
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864134&mc=5&forum_id=2 |
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Date: May 6th, 2026 7:11 PM Author: JuanTwenty The most 180 take was Trump explaining calling them up and each time a different Mohamed picks up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2,#49870733) |