The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/10/15 |
| Maroon state | 12/12/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/02/17 |
| cowardly henna corner | 01/06/16 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 01/06/16 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 06/05/16 |
| honey-headed legend stead | 03/26/16 |
| cerise space potus | 01/02/17 |
| salmon exciting business firm death wish | 10/25/18 |
| charismatic personal credit line pit | 12/10/15 |
| Mildly autistic den pervert | 12/10/15 |
| Dead faggotry sanctuary | 12/10/15 |
| Pontificating theater stage | 12/10/15 |
| Jet Wonderful Step-uncle's House Sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| spectacular school partner | 12/10/15 |
| bateful sinister abode | 12/10/15 |
| snowy brunch liquid oxygen | 12/10/15 |
| garnet cuckoldry | 12/11/15 |
| Fantasy-prone milk tattoo | 12/12/15 |
| Vengeful new version depressive | 12/16/15 |
| olive theater party of the first part | 01/04/16 |
| racy dull address | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/11/15 |
| khaki stimulating incel | 12/11/15 |
| Hairraiser stage | 12/11/15 |
| garnet cuckoldry | 12/11/15 |
| Nofapping doctorate son of senegal | 12/12/15 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 01/25/16 |
| Brindle organic girlfriend | 11/10/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/12/15 |
| Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor | 12/12/15 |
| Multi-colored principal's office sex offender | 12/12/15 |
| fishy keepsake machete | 12/12/15 |
| Light gunner twinkling uncleanness | 12/15/15 |
| Aqua tanning salon half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| sexy rusted persian church | 12/12/15 |
| Drab macaca box office | 12/12/15 |
| black double fault parlour | 12/12/15 |
| Vivacious lilac locus foreskin | 12/12/15 |
| Umber supple whorehouse rigor | 12/12/15 |
| Zombie-like Location Degenerate | 12/12/15 |
| bateful sinister abode | 12/15/15 |
| bateful sinister abode | 12/16/15 |
| Soul-stirring Blathering Gas Station | 12/15/15 |
| Irradiated Preventive Strike | 12/15/15 |
| Transparent Disgusting Trump Supporter Scourge Upon The Earth | 12/15/15 |
| Translucent Forum Roast Beef | 12/15/15 |
| Big french chef | 12/15/15 |
| Curious Rebellious Ladyboy Filthpig | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 12/15/15 |
| indecent windowlicker internal respiration | 01/05/16 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 01/25/16 |
| coral associate | 12/17/16 |
| electric yellow dopamine | 05/18/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 08/12/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/09/16 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 11/09/16 |
| Lascivious dilemma chad | 11/09/16 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Menage | 10/22/20 |
| unhinged cruise ship hominid | 12/15/15 |
| Mustard Insecure Senate Pocket Flask | 12/16/15 |
| emerald therapy | 12/16/15 |
| motley telephone | 12/16/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/16/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/17/15 |
| buck-toothed startling range community account | 12/18/15 |
| cowardly henna corner | 01/06/16 |
| Massive Kitchen | 12/18/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/21/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/21/15 |
| Aqua tanning salon half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/30/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 12/30/15 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/04/16 |
| olive theater party of the first part | 01/04/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/05/16 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 01/25/16 |
| buck-toothed startling range community account | 01/05/16 |
| Heady psychic | 01/05/16 |
| Cruel-hearted Autistic Hall Factory Reset Button | 01/05/16 |
| Mind-boggling public bath | 01/05/16 |
| hyperventilating trailer park | 01/05/16 |
| Mind-boggling public bath | 01/05/16 |
| cowardly henna corner | 01/06/16 |
| Mind-boggling public bath | 01/06/16 |
| hyperventilating trailer park | 01/05/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 01/06/16 |
| Aqua tanning salon half-breed | 01/07/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/08/16 |
| violet karate main people | 01/08/16 |
| Aqua tanning salon half-breed | 01/08/16 |
| buck-toothed startling range community account | 01/09/16 |
| Aqua tanning salon half-breed | 01/10/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/18/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/19/16 |
| buck-toothed startling range community account | 01/21/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/25/16 |
| Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire | 01/25/16 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 01/25/16 |
| Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire | 02/09/16 |
| violet karate main people | 09/06/16 |
| cowardly henna corner | 11/05/18 |
| Canary school cafeteria | 01/29/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 02/01/16 |
| house-broken yarmulke | 02/01/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 02/01/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 02/07/16 |
| Heady psychic | 02/09/16 |
| chrome sweet tailpipe indian lodge | 02/09/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 02/20/16 |
| Twinkling Office | 02/20/16 |
| electric yellow dopamine | 02/24/16 |
| indigo vigorous fanboi hairy legs | 02/24/16 |
| saffron odious lodge | 02/27/16 |
| Soul-stirring Blathering Gas Station | 03/09/16 |
| zippy striped hyena | 03/15/16 |
| Dead faggotry sanctuary | 03/15/16 |
| Irradiated Preventive Strike | 03/16/16 |
| Adventurous Cocky Church Building Deer Antler | 02/24/16 |
| Onyx ticket booth halford | 02/24/16 |
| Irradiated Preventive Strike | 07/21/16 |
| Rough-skinned Aquamarine Meetinghouse Philosopher-king | 02/24/16 |
| Dead faggotry sanctuary | 02/27/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/02/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/04/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/09/16 |
| Heady psychic | 03/09/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/15/16 |
| electric yellow dopamine | 03/15/16 |
| 180 disrespectful ape spot | 03/15/16 |
| Sooty Provocative Kitty National Security Agency | 03/15/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/16/16 |
| bateful sinister abode | 03/16/16 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 03/23/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/23/16 |
| black double fault parlour | 03/26/16 |
| rambunctious ultramarine temple | 03/26/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/26/16 |
| indecent windowlicker internal respiration | 03/28/16 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 03/28/16 |
| Mildly autistic den pervert | 03/28/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 08/12/16 |
| cowardly henna corner | 11/05/18 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/28/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/29/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 03/29/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 03/29/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/29/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/29/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/01/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/04/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 04/15/16 |
| Awkward Histrionic Sound Barrier | 04/15/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/19/16 |
| bearded slippery friendly grandma | 04/20/16 |
| azure blood rage piazza | 04/20/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/24/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/25/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/26/16 |
| Mahogany heaven crotch | 04/26/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone turdskin | 04/30/16 |
| hyperactive bright alpha skinny woman | 05/01/16 |
| hyperactive bright alpha skinny woman | 11/07/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/02/16 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 05/02/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/03/16 |
| Impressive Appetizing Weed Whacker Masturbator | 05/03/16 |
| cyan out-of-control ceo hospital | 05/03/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/04/16 |
| violet karate main people | 05/04/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/05/16 |
| Vivacious lilac locus foreskin | 05/05/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 05/05/16 |
| Onyx ticket booth halford | 05/05/16 |
| Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor | 05/18/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/18/16 |
| electric yellow dopamine | 05/18/16 |
| Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor | 05/18/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 05/29/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 06/20/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 06/29/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/14/16 |
| big-titted station toilet seat | 07/15/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 07/15/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/17/16 |
| violet karate main people | 07/17/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/21/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/22/16 |
| Lavender Maniacal Legal Warrant | 07/22/16 |
| Smoky Gaming Laptop | 07/23/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/24/16 |
| Citrine round eye coldplay fan | 07/25/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 07/25/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 07/27/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 08/05/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 08/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 08/12/16 |
| violet karate main people | 08/12/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 08/12/16 |
| Unholy Primrose Home Selfie | 08/12/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 08/30/16 |
| violet karate main people | 08/30/16 |
| violet karate main people | 09/06/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 09/13/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 09/14/16 |
| sexy rusted persian church | 09/14/16 |
| fighting theatre | 09/15/16 |
| misunderstood lay | 09/15/16 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 09/15/16 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 09/15/16 |
| Contagious library faggot firefighter | 09/15/16 |
| Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim | 09/19/16 |
| Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim | 09/19/16 |
| violet karate main people | 09/27/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 09/24/16 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 09/27/16 |
| violet karate main people | 09/27/16 |
| bateful sinister abode | 09/27/16 |
| ebony comical place of business | 10/08/16 |
| mint adulterous fat ankles casino | 07/29/24 |
| Insane field nowag | 09/28/16 |
| sexy rusted persian church | 09/28/16 |
| violet karate main people | 09/28/16 |
| azure blood rage piazza | 09/28/16 |
| Awkward Histrionic Sound Barrier | 09/28/16 |
| offensive rose university | 10/08/16 |
| violet karate main people | 10/09/16 |
| bossy institution people who are hurt | 10/09/16 |
| violet karate main people | 10/09/16 |
| chocolate boyish roommate bawdyhouse | 10/09/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 10/10/16 |
| Citrine round eye coldplay fan | 10/30/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 11/01/16 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 11/01/16 |
| talented amethyst market | 11/02/16 |
| Translucent Forum Roast Beef | 11/02/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 11/07/16 |
| Pale flickering lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 11/08/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/08/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 11/08/16 |
| Arousing Fortuitous Meteor Hell | 11/08/16 |
| bronze locale | 11/08/16 |
| house-broken yarmulke | 11/08/16 |
| Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim | 11/08/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/08/16 |
| cream balding mother | 11/09/16 |
| fighting theatre | 11/09/16 |
| passionate chapel | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/09/16 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 11/09/16 |
| cream balding mother | 11/09/16 |
| Citrine round eye coldplay fan | 11/09/16 |
| Vivacious lilac locus foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| excitant jade native | 12/03/16 |
| Brindle organic girlfriend | 12/07/16 |
| coral associate | 12/17/16 |
| ocher thriller queen of the night reading party | 10/11/24 |
| galvanic indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| internet-worthy obsidian travel guidebook black woman | 11/09/16 |
| brass house electric furnace | 11/09/16 |
| pearl fear-inspiring nursing home marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| excitant jade native | 11/09/16 |
| laughsome pistol | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/09/16 |
| Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor | 11/09/16 |
| violet karate main people | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid rigpig | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/09/16 |
| magenta national volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| up-to-no-good stage azn | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/09/16 |
| Pontificating theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| Massive Kitchen | 11/10/16 |
| Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire | 11/10/16 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 11/10/16 |
| exhilarant circlehead stag film | 11/10/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/10/16 |
| Insane field nowag | 11/10/16 |
| Twinkling Office | 11/10/16 |
| Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim | 11/14/16 |
| Talking Kink-friendly Rehab Police Squad | 11/14/16 |
| very tactful pink point | 12/04/16 |
| coral associate | 12/17/16 |
| ocher thriller queen of the night reading party | 10/11/24 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/25/16 |
| sticky base | 12/03/16 |
| chocolate boyish roommate bawdyhouse | 12/04/16 |
| Chestnut violent gaping boltzmann | 12/07/16 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 12/07/16 |
| sticky base | 12/07/16 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/02/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/02/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/02/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/02/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 03/03/20 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 01/02/17 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 01/16/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/20/17 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/20/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/23/17 |
| offensive rose university | 01/23/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/23/17 |
| Navy resort | 01/23/17 |
| offensive rose university | 01/23/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/23/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/25/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 01/26/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 02/06/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 02/13/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 02/27/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 05/03/17 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/03/17 |
| judgmental mexican | 09/21/17 |
| Dead faggotry sanctuary | 01/23/17 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 02/27/17 |
| cowardly henna corner | 03/22/17 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 04/17/17 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/08/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 06/20/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 08/10/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 10/15/17 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 10/15/17 |
| Fragrant chartreuse dog poop | 10/15/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/06/17 |
| Cerebral Orchestra Pit | 11/06/17 |
| Sapphire sickened idiot | 11/08/17 |
| charcoal hot cumskin athletic conference | 11/08/17 |
| Crimson tank garrison | 11/13/17 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 12/18/17 |
| violet karate main people | 12/18/17 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 12/18/17 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 01/30/18 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 06/01/18 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/18/18 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 07/19/18 |
| Contagious library faggot firefighter | 09/20/18 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 09/25/18 |
| Mildly autistic den pervert | 10/06/18 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 10/06/18 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 10/25/18 |
| misunderstood lay | 10/25/18 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 11/05/18 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 11/05/18 |
| cowardly henna corner | 11/05/18 |
| nighttime vibrant set boiling water | 11/05/18 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 01/08/19 |
| dashing white stock car | 02/23/19 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 03/13/19 |
| Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza | 06/24/19 |
| stirring filthy feces | 06/24/19 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 11/18/19 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 02/12/20 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 02/12/20 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 03/24/20 |
| trip mad cow disease kitty cat | 03/24/20 |
| big-titted station toilet seat | 04/04/20 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 04/26/20 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 05/13/20 |
| big-titted station toilet seat | 06/05/20 |
| Tripping haunted graveyard water buffalo | 06/05/20 |
| big-titted station toilet seat | 09/09/20 |
| Marvelous opaque private investor | 09/09/20 |
| charismatic personal credit line pit | 09/09/20 |
| cracking property | 09/12/20 |
| Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area | 09/24/20 |
| stirring filthy feces | 10/09/20 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 10/10/20 |
| glittery fuchsia site | 10/22/20 |
| excitant jade native | 10/22/20 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Menage | 10/22/20 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Menage | 10/22/20 |
| gaped avocado jewess becky | 03/23/22 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 10/27/20 |
| cowardly henna corner | 10/27/20 |
| stirring filthy feces | 10/30/20 |
| concupiscible crackhouse | 11/03/20 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/22/22 |
| Titillating Shrine Hissy Fit | 03/23/22 |
| self-absorbed aphrodisiac | 03/23/22 |
| jet-lagged | 03/23/22 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 07/25/22 |
| charismatic personal credit line pit | 07/25/22 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 10/23/22 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 11/16/22 |
| Learning disabled center codepig | 04/25/23 |
| Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor | 04/25/23 |
| Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area | 04/29/23 |
| mint adulterous fat ankles casino | 05/28/23 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 02/22/24 |
| Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area | 02/23/24 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 05/23/24 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 08/26/24 |
| Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area | 09/13/24 |
| charismatic personal credit line pit | 09/13/24 |
| Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area | 10/18/24 |
| ocher thriller queen of the night reading party | 10/11/24 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 11/06/24 |
| Vivacious lilac locus foreskin | 03/04/25 |
| Vivacious lilac locus foreskin | 03/04/25 |
| Contagious library faggot firefighter | 03/04/25 |
| ocher thriller queen of the night reading party | 03/04/25 |
| Chest-beating Blue Gay Wizard | 03/04/25 |
| bonkers floppy | 03/05/25 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/07/25 |
| Razzle Mental Disorder Dragon | 03/07/25 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/08/25 |
| Impertinent quadroon | 03/08/25 |
| Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole | 03/08/25 |
| Dead faggotry sanctuary | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
| ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Maroon state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: honey-headed legend stead 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: cerise space potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: salmon exciting business firm death wish "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: charismatic personal credit line pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Mildly autistic den pervert 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Dead faggotry sanctuary 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Pontificating theater stage Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Jet Wonderful Step-uncle's House Sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: spectacular school partner FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: bateful sinister abode Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: snowy brunch liquid oxygen Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: garnet cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Fantasy-prone milk tattoo Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Vengeful new version depressive Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: olive theater party of the first part Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: racy dull address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: khaki stimulating incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Hairraiser stage 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: garnet cuckoldry November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Nofapping doctorate son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Brindle organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Multi-colored principal's office sex offender lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: fishy keepsake machete March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Light gunner twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Aqua tanning salon half-breed 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: sexy rusted persian church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Drab macaca box office lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: black double fault parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Vivacious lilac locus foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Umber supple whorehouse rigor Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Zombie-like Location Degenerate Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: bateful sinister abode OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: bateful sinister abode And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Soul-stirring Blathering Gas Station 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Irradiated Preventive Strike fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Transparent Disgusting Trump Supporter Scourge Upon The Earth I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Translucent Forum Roast Beef 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Big french chef February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Curious Rebellious Ladyboy Filthpig You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: indecent windowlicker internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: coral associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: electric yellow dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: laughsome pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Lascivious dilemma chad Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bat Shit Crazy Menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: unhinged cruise ship hominid This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Mustard Insecure Senate Pocket Flask 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: emerald therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: motley telephone Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: buck-toothed startling range community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Massive Kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Aqua tanning salon half-breed 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: olive theater party of the first part flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: buck-toothed startling range community account From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Heady psychic 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Cruel-hearted Autistic Hall Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Mind-boggling public bath An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: hyperventilating trailer park 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Mind-boggling public bath I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Mind-boggling public bath Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: hyperventilating trailer park No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: laughsome pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Aqua tanning salon half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: violet karate main people 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Aqua tanning salon half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: buck-toothed startling range community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Aqua tanning salon half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: buck-toothed startling range community account looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: violet karate main people (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Canary school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: house-broken yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Heady psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: chrome sweet tailpipe indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Twinkling Office OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: electric yellow dopamine PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: indigo vigorous fanboi hairy legs The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: saffron odious lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Soul-stirring Blathering Gas Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: zippy striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Dead faggotry sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Irradiated Preventive Strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Adventurous Cocky Church Building Deer Antler hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Onyx ticket booth halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Irradiated Preventive Strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Rough-skinned Aquamarine Meetinghouse Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Dead faggotry sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Heady psychic yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: electric yellow dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: 180 disrespectful ape spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Sooty Provocative Kitty National Security Agency truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: bateful sinister abode March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: black double fault parlour http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: rambunctious ultramarine temple Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: indecent windowlicker internal respiration jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Mildly autistic den pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: laughsome pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Insane field nowag lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Insane field nowag "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Insane field nowag interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Awkward Histrionic Sound Barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: bearded slippery friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: azure blood rage piazza I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Mahogany heaven crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: hyperactive bright alpha skinny woman Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: hyperactive bright alpha skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Impressive Appetizing Weed Whacker Masturbator holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: cyan out-of-control ceo hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: violet karate main people 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Vivacious lilac locus foreskin Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Onyx ticket booth halford Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: electric yellow dopamine In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: big-titted station toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: laughsome pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: violet karate main people 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Lavender Maniacal Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Smoky Gaming Laptop Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Citrine round eye coldplay fan Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Insane field nowag amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: violet karate main people holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Unholy Primrose Home Selfie LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: violet karate main people 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: violet karate main people lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Insane field nowag ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: sexy rusted persian church Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: fighting theatre September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: misunderstood lay September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Contagious library faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: violet karate main people let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: violet karate main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bateful sinister abode This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: ebony comical place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: mint adulterous fat ankles casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Insane field nowag http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: sexy rusted persian church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: violet karate main people 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: azure blood rage piazza This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Awkward Histrionic Sound Barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: offensive rose university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: violet karate main people hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: bossy institution people who are hurt Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: violet karate main people doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: chocolate boyish roommate bawdyhouse half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Insane field nowag nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Citrine round eye coldplay fan close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: laughsome pistol Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: talented amethyst market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Translucent Forum Roast Beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Insane field nowag prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Pale flickering lettuce You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Insane field nowag true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Insane field nowag ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Arousing Fortuitous Meteor Hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: bronze locale Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: house-broken yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: cream balding mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: fighting theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: passionate chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: cream balding mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Citrine round eye coldplay fan it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Vivacious lilac locus foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: excitant jade native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Brindle organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: coral associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: ocher thriller queen of the night reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: galvanic indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: internet-worthy obsidian travel guidebook black woman Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: brass house electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: pearl fear-inspiring nursing home marketing idea 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: excitant jade native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: laughsome pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: violet karate main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: magenta national volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: up-to-no-good stage azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Pontificating theater stage you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Massive Kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Effete old irish cottage multi-billionaire Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: exhilarant circlehead stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Insane field nowag ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Twinkling Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Narrow-minded Haunting Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Talking Kink-friendly Rehab Police Squad They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: very tactful pink point Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: coral associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: ocher thriller queen of the night reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: sticky base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: chocolate boyish roommate bawdyhouse GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Chestnut violent gaping boltzmann https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: sticky base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: judgmental mexican October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: judgmental mexican ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: judgmental mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: offensive rose university TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: judgmental mexican It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Navy resort I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: offensive rose university it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: judgmental mexican The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: judgmental mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Dead faggotry sanctuary this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Fragrant chartreuse dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Cerebral Orchestra Pit credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Sapphire sickened idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: charcoal hot cumskin athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Crimson tank garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: violet karate main people Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Contagious library faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Mildly autistic den pervert It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: misunderstood lay Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: nighttime vibrant set boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: dashing white stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Aromatic Apoplectic Plaza There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: stirring filthy feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: trip mad cow disease kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: big-titted station toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: big-titted station toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Tripping haunted graveyard water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: big-titted station toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Marvelous opaque private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: charismatic personal credit line pit Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: cracking property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: stirring filthy feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: glittery fuchsia site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: excitant jade native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bat Shit Crazy Menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Bat Shit Crazy Menage https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: gaped avocado jewess becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: cowardly henna corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: stirring filthy feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: concupiscible crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Titillating Shrine Hissy Fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: self-absorbed aphrodisiac (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: jet-lagged 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: charismatic personal credit line pit A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Learning disabled center codepig Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Learning disabled center codepig https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Slate Beady-eyed Jew Parlor why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: mint adulterous fat ankles casino FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: charismatic personal credit line pit One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Hateful Carnelian Shitlib Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: ocher thriller queen of the night reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Vivacious lilac locus foreskin 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Vivacious lilac locus foreskin https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Contagious library faggot firefighter Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: ocher thriller queen of the night reading party The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Chest-beating Blue Gay Wizard He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: bonkers floppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Razzle Mental Disorder Dragon 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Impertinent quadroon Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Brilliant Swashbuckling Prole Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Dead faggotry sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
|
Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |