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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
flirting field
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
unholy contagious depressive sanctuary
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
flirting field
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
unholy contagious depressive sanctuary
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
flirting field
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
unholy contagious depressive sanctuary
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
stimulating nursing home mad cow disease
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Shaky institution gaping
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
aquamarine menage codepig
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
flirting field
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
hideous forum
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
Self-centered Library
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
flirting field
  01/06/26
...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
cr
Saffron soul-stirring crotch
  01/06/26
...
Galvanic associate mexican
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
amethyst passionate lodge
  01/06/26
...
infuriating poppy state
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
Sexy comical masturbator gas station
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
Sexy comical masturbator gas station
  01/06/26
...
aquamarine menage codepig
  01/06/26
...
offensive gaming laptop brunch
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
olive boyish office
  01/06/26
...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
aquamarine menage codepig
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
flirting field
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
chocolate exciting regret feces
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
stimulating nursing home mad cow disease
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Ultramarine Bull Headed Turdskin
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
flirting field
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Chartreuse Doobsian Meetinghouse
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
Federal Dilemma
  01/06/26
...
Federal Dilemma
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
topaz thriller location
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
Federal Dilemma
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
flirting field
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
aquamarine menage codepig
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
Lascivious insecure milk church
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
infuriating poppy state
  01/07/26
?
Federal Dilemma
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
stimulating nursing home mad cow disease
  01/07/26
...
Federal Dilemma
  01/10/26
...
Federal Dilemma
  03/05/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: flirting field

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: unholy contagious depressive sanctuary

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: flirting field

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: unholy contagious depressive sanctuary

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: flirting field

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: unholy contagious depressive sanctuary

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: stimulating nursing home mad cow disease

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Shaky institution gaping

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: aquamarine menage codepig

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: flirting field

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: hideous forum

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: Self-centered Library

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: flirting field

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: Saffron soul-stirring crotch

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: Galvanic associate mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: amethyst passionate lodge

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: infuriating poppy state



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Sexy comical masturbator gas station

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: Sexy comical masturbator gas station

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: aquamarine menage codepig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: offensive gaming laptop brunch



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: olive boyish office

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: aquamarine menage codepig

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: flirting field

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: chocolate exciting regret feces

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: marvelous jet-lagged hospital sweet tailpipe

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: stimulating nursing home mad cow disease

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Ultramarine Bull Headed Turdskin

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: flirting field

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Chartreuse Doobsian Meetinghouse

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: Federal Dilemma

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: Federal Dilemma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: topaz thriller location

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: Federal Dilemma

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: flirting field

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: aquamarine menage codepig

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: Lascivious insecure milk church

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: infuriating poppy state

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: Federal Dilemma

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: stimulating nursing home mad cow disease

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: Federal Dilemma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49579920)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 5th, 2026 1:46 PM
Author: Federal Dilemma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2/#49718047)