The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| glittery doctorate | 12/10/15 |
| razzle national | 12/12/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/02/17 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 01/06/16 |
| electric indian lodge | 01/06/16 |
| electric indian lodge | 06/05/16 |
| sickened legal warrant shrine | 03/26/16 |
| bull headed hell | 01/02/17 |
| talented carmine philosopher-king spot | 10/25/18 |
| motley talking dilemma | 12/10/15 |
| sepia laser beams | 12/10/15 |
| heady fanboi | 12/10/15 |
| jet-lagged cuckold mexican | 12/10/15 |
| topaz submissive address | 12/15/15 |
| at-the-ready therapy | 12/10/15 |
| Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo | 12/10/15 |
| magical coral corner | 12/10/15 |
| aromatic puce trailer park turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| very tactful wonderful dragon | 12/12/15 |
| wine thriller factory reset button state | 12/16/15 |
| Boyish salmon new version | 01/04/16 |
| beady-eyed high-end athletic conference orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/11/15 |
| learning disabled dog poop | 12/11/15 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Outnumbered Church Building | 12/11/15 |
| aromatic puce trailer park turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| Pungent immigrant home | 12/12/15 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 01/25/16 |
| Alcoholic disturbing keepsake machete hairy legs | 11/10/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/12/15 |
| Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing | 12/12/15 |
| Excitant Slippery Community Account | 12/12/15 |
| Razzmatazz Meetinghouse | 12/12/15 |
| Slap-happy Elite Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Crusty hall | 12/21/15 |
| Flesh gunner karate | 12/12/15 |
| peach spectacular set wagecucks | 12/12/15 |
| embarrassed to the bone sexy parlor | 12/12/15 |
| hairraiser coffee pot senate | 12/12/15 |
| aphrodisiac dysfunction | 12/12/15 |
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| Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo | 12/15/15 |
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| Ultramarine flatulent lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| mentally impaired histrionic school cafeteria | 12/15/15 |
| Dull Tantric Black Woman Faggot Firefighter | 12/15/15 |
| Floppy Avocado Hospital Faggotry | 12/15/15 |
| vivacious legend potus | 12/15/15 |
| idiotic brass selfie | 12/15/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| glittery doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| Adventurous magenta parlour | 01/05/16 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 01/25/16 |
| appetizing partner | 12/17/16 |
| Fishy main people | 05/18/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 08/12/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| costumed effete point | 11/09/16 |
| Irradiated Knife Temple | 11/09/16 |
| rusted kink-friendly old irish cottage marketing idea | 10/22/20 |
| Charismatic fear-inspiring hominid nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| bisexual box office | 12/16/15 |
| Vibrant pocket flask stock car | 12/16/15 |
| Odious Stag Film Pervert | 12/16/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/16/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/17/15 |
| Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution | 12/18/15 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 01/06/16 |
| lemon razzle-dazzle public bath | 12/18/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/21/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/21/15 |
| Crusty hall | 12/21/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/30/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 12/30/15 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/04/16 |
| Boyish salmon new version | 01/04/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/05/16 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 01/25/16 |
| Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution | 01/05/16 |
| Iridescent Organic Girlfriend Space | 01/05/16 |
| passionate cerise theatre scourge upon the earth | 01/05/16 |
| Bistre fragrant cuck international law enforcement agency | 01/05/16 |
| seedy geriatric rigpig | 01/05/16 |
| Bistre fragrant cuck international law enforcement agency | 01/05/16 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 01/06/16 |
| Bistre fragrant cuck international law enforcement agency | 01/06/16 |
| seedy geriatric rigpig | 01/05/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 01/06/16 |
| Crusty hall | 01/07/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/08/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 01/08/16 |
| Crusty hall | 01/08/16 |
| Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution | 01/09/16 |
| Crusty hall | 01/10/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/18/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/19/16 |
| Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution | 01/21/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/25/16 |
| mildly autistic jewess telephone | 01/25/16 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 01/25/16 |
| mildly autistic jewess telephone | 02/09/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 09/06/16 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 11/05/18 |
| ruddy resort | 01/29/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 02/01/16 |
| Multi-colored Yapping Church Affirmative Action | 02/01/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 02/01/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 02/07/16 |
| Iridescent Organic Girlfriend Space | 02/09/16 |
| milky private investor property | 02/09/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 02/20/16 |
| Aqua yarmulke internal respiration | 02/20/16 |
| Fishy main people | 02/24/16 |
| soul-stirring mother | 02/24/16 |
| chestnut casino | 02/27/16 |
| Ultramarine flatulent lettuce | 03/09/16 |
| Irate citrine school | 03/15/16 |
| heady fanboi | 03/15/16 |
| mentally impaired histrionic school cafeteria | 03/16/16 |
| Unholy concupiscible theater stage sandwich | 02/24/16 |
| Sadistic disrespectful gay wizard background story | 02/24/16 |
| mentally impaired histrionic school cafeteria | 07/21/16 |
| ocher trust fund skinny woman | 02/24/16 |
| heady fanboi | 02/27/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/02/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/04/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/09/16 |
| Iridescent Organic Girlfriend Space | 03/09/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/15/16 |
| Fishy main people | 03/15/16 |
| Stimulating University Corn Cake | 03/15/16 |
| stubborn ape round eye | 03/15/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/16/16 |
| Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo | 03/16/16 |
| costumed effete point | 03/23/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/23/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone sexy parlor | 03/26/16 |
| Big range french chef | 03/26/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/26/16 |
| Adventurous magenta parlour | 03/28/16 |
| costumed effete point | 03/28/16 |
| sepia laser beams | 03/28/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 08/12/16 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 11/05/18 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/28/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/29/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 03/29/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 03/29/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/29/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/29/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/01/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/04/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 04/15/16 |
| sable office gaping | 04/15/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/19/16 |
| Provocative emerald crackhouse electric furnace | 04/20/16 |
| Supple Rehab | 04/20/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/24/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/25/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/26/16 |
| Gaped Travel Guidebook | 04/26/16 |
| Exhilarant dark library bbw | 04/30/16 |
| titillating market | 05/01/16 |
| titillating market | 11/07/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/02/16 |
| costumed effete point | 05/02/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/03/16 |
| racy volcanic crater heaven | 05/03/16 |
| trip degenerate area | 05/03/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/04/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 05/04/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/05/16 |
| hairraiser coffee pot senate | 05/05/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 05/05/16 |
| Sadistic disrespectful gay wizard background story | 05/05/16 |
| Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing | 05/18/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/18/16 |
| Fishy main people | 05/18/16 |
| Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing | 05/18/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 05/29/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 06/20/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 06/29/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/14/16 |
| marvelous menage messiness | 07/15/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 07/15/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/17/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 07/17/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/21/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/22/16 |
| Misanthropic comical famous landscape painting | 07/22/16 |
| self-absorbed rebellious gaming laptop regret | 07/23/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/24/16 |
| Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug | 07/25/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 07/25/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 07/27/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 08/05/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 08/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 08/12/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 08/12/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 08/12/16 |
| shaky foreskin kitty cat | 08/12/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 08/30/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 08/30/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 09/06/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 09/13/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 09/14/16 |
| Flesh gunner karate | 09/14/16 |
| Vigorous Brunch | 09/15/16 |
| Red Exciting Lodge Tattoo | 09/15/16 |
| electric indian lodge | 09/15/16 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 09/15/16 |
| laughsome tanning salon | 09/15/16 |
| slimy slate step-uncle's house jap | 09/19/16 |
| slimy slate step-uncle's house jap | 09/19/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 09/27/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 09/24/16 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 09/27/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 09/27/16 |
| Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo | 09/27/16 |
| sticky blue mad-dog skullcap | 10/08/16 |
| anal unhinged sanctuary incel | 07/29/24 |
| Bateful feces locale | 09/28/16 |
| Flesh gunner karate | 09/28/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 09/28/16 |
| Supple Rehab | 09/28/16 |
| sable office gaping | 09/28/16 |
| Dashing chartreuse base | 10/08/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 10/09/16 |
| galvanic blood rage | 10/09/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 10/09/16 |
| soggy drunken gas station | 10/09/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 10/10/16 |
| Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug | 10/30/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 11/01/16 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 11/01/16 |
| Underhanded Stage | 11/02/16 |
| Floppy Avocado Hospital Faggotry | 11/02/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 11/07/16 |
| Stirring ceo | 11/08/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 11/08/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/08/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 11/08/16 |
| poppy lay | 11/08/16 |
| Deranged Son Of Senegal Macaca | 11/08/16 |
| Multi-colored Yapping Church Affirmative Action | 11/08/16 |
| slimy slate step-uncle's house jap | 11/08/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/08/16 |
| lascivious well-lubricated azn sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| Vigorous Brunch | 11/09/16 |
| jet rigor idiot | 11/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 11/09/16 |
| lascivious well-lubricated azn sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| hairraiser coffee pot senate | 11/09/16 |
| Maize cumskin | 12/03/16 |
| Alcoholic disturbing keepsake machete hairy legs | 12/07/16 |
| appetizing partner | 12/17/16 |
| Misunderstood National Security Agency | 10/11/24 |
| Confused Contagious Native Puppy | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling erotic preventive strike | 11/09/16 |
| Cracking Nofapping Stain Giraffe | 11/09/16 |
| Lavender sex offender | 11/09/16 |
| Maize cumskin | 11/09/16 |
| curious aggressive forum crotch | 11/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing | 11/09/16 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 11/09/16 |
| fantasy-prone alpha | 11/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| Vermilion Stead | 11/09/16 |
| snowy metal quadroon bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| jet-lagged cuckold mexican | 11/09/16 |
| lemon razzle-dazzle public bath | 11/10/16 |
| mildly autistic jewess telephone | 11/10/16 |
| electric indian lodge | 11/10/16 |
| white mediation | 11/10/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/10/16 |
| Bateful feces locale | 11/10/16 |
| Aqua yarmulke internal respiration | 11/10/16 |
| slimy slate step-uncle's house jap | 11/14/16 |
| Bright Cruise Ship Elastic Band | 11/14/16 |
| smoky duck-like den | 12/04/16 |
| appetizing partner | 12/17/16 |
| Misunderstood National Security Agency | 10/11/24 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/25/16 |
| buff startling fortuitous meteor locus | 12/03/16 |
| soggy drunken gas station | 12/04/16 |
| Arrogant Field Really Tough Guy | 12/07/16 |
| electric indian lodge | 12/07/16 |
| buff startling fortuitous meteor locus | 12/07/16 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/02/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/02/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/02/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/02/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 03/03/20 |
| electric indian lodge | 01/02/17 |
| costumed effete point | 01/16/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/20/17 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/20/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/23/17 |
| Dashing chartreuse base | 01/23/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/23/17 |
| site boiling water | 01/23/17 |
| Dashing chartreuse base | 01/23/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/23/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/25/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 01/26/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 02/06/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 02/13/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 02/27/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 05/03/17 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/03/17 |
| ungodly vengeful center | 09/21/17 |
| heady fanboi | 01/23/17 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 02/27/17 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 03/22/17 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 04/17/17 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/08/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 06/20/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 08/10/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 10/15/17 |
| costumed effete point | 10/15/17 |
| Light reading party | 10/15/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/06/17 |
| Deep drab piazza | 11/06/17 |
| pearl station boistinker | 11/08/17 |
| low-t ticket booth love of her life | 11/08/17 |
| navy indirect expression | 11/13/17 |
| costumed effete point | 12/18/17 |
| Sooty jew dingle berry | 12/18/17 |
| costumed effete point | 12/18/17 |
| glittery doctorate | 01/30/18 |
| electric indian lodge | 06/01/18 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/18/18 |
| costumed effete point | 07/19/18 |
| laughsome tanning salon | 09/20/18 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 09/25/18 |
| sepia laser beams | 10/06/18 |
| glittery doctorate | 10/06/18 |
| electric indian lodge | 10/25/18 |
| Red Exciting Lodge Tattoo | 10/25/18 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 11/05/18 |
| electric indian lodge | 11/05/18 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 11/05/18 |
| electric indian lodge | 11/05/18 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 01/08/19 |
| Orchid stage mood | 02/23/19 |
| glittery doctorate | 03/13/19 |
| painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part | 06/24/19 |
| insane prole | 06/24/19 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 11/18/19 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 02/12/20 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 02/12/20 |
| glittery doctorate | 03/24/20 |
| Wild Plaza | 03/24/20 |
| marvelous menage messiness | 04/04/20 |
| glittery doctorate | 04/26/20 |
| glittery doctorate | 05/13/20 |
| marvelous menage messiness | 06/05/20 |
| azure garrison | 06/05/20 |
| marvelous menage messiness | 09/09/20 |
| abnormal abode half-breed | 09/09/20 |
| motley talking dilemma | 09/09/20 |
| pontificating tripping nowag | 09/12/20 |
| zombie-like cobalt whorehouse | 09/24/20 |
| insane prole | 10/09/20 |
| costumed effete point | 10/10/20 |
| Primrose newt twinkling uncleanness | 10/22/20 |
| Maize cumskin | 10/22/20 |
| rusted kink-friendly old irish cottage marketing idea | 10/22/20 |
| rusted kink-friendly old irish cottage marketing idea | 10/22/20 |
| Cheese-eating mental disorder kitchen | 03/23/22 |
| glittery doctorate | 10/27/20 |
| Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel | 10/27/20 |
| insane prole | 10/30/20 |
| costumed effete point | 11/03/20 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/22/22 |
| Bronze filthy pit | 03/23/22 |
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| up-to-no-good masturbator | 03/23/22 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 07/25/22 |
| motley talking dilemma | 07/25/22 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 10/23/22 |
| glittery doctorate | 11/16/22 |
| glittery doctorate | 04/25/23 |
| Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing | 04/25/23 |
| zombie-like cobalt whorehouse | 04/29/23 |
| anal unhinged sanctuary incel | 05/28/23 |
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| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 05/23/24 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 08/26/24 |
| zombie-like cobalt whorehouse | 09/13/24 |
| motley talking dilemma | 09/13/24 |
| zombie-like cobalt whorehouse | 10/18/24 |
| Misunderstood National Security Agency | 10/11/24 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 11/06/24 |
| hairraiser coffee pot senate | 03/04/25 |
| hairraiser coffee pot senate | 03/04/25 |
| laughsome tanning salon | 03/04/25 |
| Misunderstood National Security Agency | 03/04/25 |
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| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/07/25 |
| angry yellow police squad | 03/07/25 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/08/25 |
| fiercely-loyal filthpig | 03/08/25 |
| Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes | 03/08/25 |
| heady fanboi | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: glittery doctorate December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: razzle national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: electric indian lodge another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: sickened legal warrant shrine 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: bull headed hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: talented carmine philosopher-king spot "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: motley talking dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: magical coral corner Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: aromatic puce trailer park turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: very tactful wonderful dragon Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: wine thriller factory reset button state Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Boyish salmon new version Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Razzmatazz Meetinghouse March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
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March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Ultramarine flatulent lettuce 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: mentally impaired histrionic school cafeteria fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Dull Tantric Black Woman Faggot Firefighter I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Floppy Avocado Hospital Faggotry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: vivacious legend potus February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: idiotic brass selfie You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: glittery doctorate Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: glittery doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: glittery doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: glittery doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: glittery doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384262) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: glittery doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Irradiated Knife Temple Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: lemon razzle-dazzle public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Crusty hall 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Boyish salmon new version flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: glittery doctorate ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Bistre fragrant cuck international law enforcement agency I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Bistre fragrant cuck international law enforcement agency Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: seedy geriatric rigpig No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531557) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Crusty hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Crusty hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Crusty hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Balding Adulterous Shitlib Institution looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Bateful feces locale "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Bateful feces locale interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: titillating market Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Fishy main people In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: glittery doctorate lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: marvelous menage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: curious aggressive forum crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Misanthropic comical famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: self-absorbed rebellious gaming laptop regret Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Bateful feces locale amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: glittery doctorate Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: glittery doctorate THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: glittery doctorate I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: shaky foreskin kitty cat LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: glittery doctorate THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Bateful feces locale ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Flesh gunner karate Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Vigorous Brunch September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Red Exciting Lodge Tattoo September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: electric indian lodge god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: abnormal abode half-breed XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: laughsome tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: slimy slate step-uncle's house jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: slimy slate step-uncle's house jap The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Sapphire arousing theater water buffalo This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: sticky blue mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: anal unhinged sanctuary incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Bateful feces locale http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Flesh gunner karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Supple Rehab This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: sable office gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Dashing chartreuse base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: galvanic blood rage Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: soggy drunken gas station half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Bateful feces locale nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: curious aggressive forum crotch Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: abnormal abode half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Underhanded Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Floppy Avocado Hospital Faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Bateful feces locale prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Stirring ceo You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Bateful feces locale true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: glittery doctorate ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Bateful feces locale ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: poppy lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Deranged Son Of Senegal Macaca Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Multi-colored Yapping Church Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: slimy slate step-uncle's house jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: lascivious well-lubricated azn sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Vigorous Brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: jet rigor idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: abnormal abode half-breed GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: lascivious well-lubricated azn sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Diverse spruce house antidepressant drug it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: hairraiser coffee pot senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Maize cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Alcoholic disturbing keepsake machete hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: appetizing partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Misunderstood National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Confused Contagious Native Puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Mind-boggling erotic preventive strike Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Cracking Nofapping Stain Giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Lavender sex offender 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Maize cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: curious aggressive forum crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: fantasy-prone alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Vermilion Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: snowy metal quadroon bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: glittery doctorate November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: jet-lagged cuckold mexican you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: lemon razzle-dazzle public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: mildly autistic jewess telephone Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: electric indian lodge bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: white mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: glittery doctorate sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Bateful feces locale ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Aqua yarmulke internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: slimy slate step-uncle's house jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Bright Cruise Ship Elastic Band They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: smoky duck-like den Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: appetizing partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Misunderstood National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: buff startling fortuitous meteor locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: soggy drunken gas station GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Arrogant Field Really Tough Guy https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: buff startling fortuitous meteor locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: glittery doctorate ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: electric indian lodge truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Dashing chartreuse base TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: site boiling water I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Dashing chartreuse base it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: ungodly vengeful center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: heady fanboi this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: abnormal abode half-breed One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: glittery doctorate What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: glittery doctorate https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Light reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Deep drab piazza credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: pearl station boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: low-t ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: navy indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Sooty jew dingle berry Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: laughsome tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: sepia laser beams It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: glittery doctorate lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Red Exciting Lodge Tattoo Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: electric indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Orchid stage mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: glittery doctorate Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: painfully honest cerebral location party of the first part There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: insane prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: abnormal abode half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Wild Plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: marvelous menage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: glittery doctorate https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: marvelous menage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: azure garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: marvelous menage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: abnormal abode half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: motley talking dilemma Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: pontificating tripping nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: zombie-like cobalt whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: insane prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Primrose newt twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Maize cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: rusted kink-friendly old irish cottage marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: rusted kink-friendly old irish cottage marketing idea https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Cheese-eating mental disorder kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: glittery doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Opaque swashbuckling clown chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: insane prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: costumed effete point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Bronze filthy pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Fuchsia Digit Ratio Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: up-to-no-good masturbator 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: motley talking dilemma A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: glittery doctorate Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: glittery doctorate https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Honey-headed Cruel-hearted Genital Piercing why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: zombie-like cobalt whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: anal unhinged sanctuary incel FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: zombie-like cobalt whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: zombie-like cobalt whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: motley talking dilemma One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: zombie-like cobalt whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Misunderstood National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: hairraiser coffee pot senate 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: hairraiser coffee pot senate https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: laughsome tanning salon Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Misunderstood National Security Agency The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: clear voyeur principal's office He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: rambunctious (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: angry yellow police squad 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: fiercely-loyal filthpig Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Awkward nudist business firm useless brakes Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: heady fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |