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Horse racing expert taking questions.

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Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/19/24
...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Are there any analytics nerds trying to take this over? I...
Canary sex offender
  05/20/24
This of it sort of like tennis where certain players perform...
floppy kitty cat ratface
  05/20/24
That's just basic handicapping though.
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Seems like something you could have figured out in 1860. ...
Canary sex offender
  05/20/24
It has already been taken over by Computer Assisted Wagering...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
are they just trying to arbitrage the lines? what are the...
Canary sex offender
  05/20/24
It's only arbitrage to the extent that the CAW teams get reb...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Are CAWs active even in small dollar races, like harness rac...
Chocolate garrison pistol
  05/20/24
Yes and yes. Although there is less dumb money to take at sm...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Due to complaints, some circuits have barred CAWs from makin...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
has anyone studied the statistical performances based on how...
comical chrome love of her life
  05/20/24
lol, yeah, or figure out how much the horse has eaten/slept ...
Canary sex offender
  05/20/24
Candy, pls address this
comical chrome love of her life
  05/20/24
Some people say a horse shitting during a post parade is goo...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
isn't that stuff banned / tested for?
Copper misanthropic preventive strike piazza
  05/20/24
Its banned in 2 year old races and in graded stakes, but it ...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
what about for the 3yr olds at the various 3xcrown events? i...
Copper misanthropic preventive strike piazza
  05/20/24
Lasix isn't permitted in any of the Triple Crown races. They...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Do horses ever get boners right before or after they race?
Slate Dopamine Bawdyhouse
  05/20/24
Yes it happens.
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
Got any pics?
Slate Dopamine Bawdyhouse
  05/20/24
Given the CAWs what bets do you recommend for the casual be...
Chocolate garrison pistol
  05/20/24
When I started, I always played pick 5s because of the allur...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  05/20/24
you still poast? i bet on horse racing for a living. im l...
costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace
  10/02/25
not that poaster but I have family with a season box at Chur...
galvanic boiling water famous landscape painting
  10/02/25
no i didnt until very recently. Forever Young (JPN) SMOTH...
costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace
  10/02/25
Fierceness loves Del Mar. Kind of thinking about him at the ...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  10/08/25
the breeders cup was amazing, i won $25k on Ethical Diamond
costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace
  11/21/25
Really? 180. This Tinky guy I follow on Twitter touted hi...
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  11/24/25
its just one of those judgment calls you have to make when a...
costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace
  11/25/25
Are you a workout watcher? I never have been.
Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster
  11/25/25
I'm a computer dork, but the once-in-a-lifetime angles are s...
costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace
  11/25/25
...
Razzle Skinny Woman
  11/25/25
...
topaz angry dilemma hunting ground
  11/25/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2024 5:00 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47674587)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 10:53 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676405)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:07 AM
Author: Canary sex offender

Are there any analytics nerds trying to take this over?

If so, what do they try to figure out about this? What's their angle?

If not, why not?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676444)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:11 AM
Author: floppy kitty cat ratface

This of it sort of like tennis where certain players perform better on certain surfaces.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676453)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

That's just basic handicapping though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676478)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM
Author: Canary sex offender

Seems like something you could have figured out in 1860.

How about something like analyzing the horses' gaits with high speed cameras and computer programs?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676480)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

It has already been taken over by Computer Assisted Wagering teams or CAWs. It may end up killing the sport, because CAWs make up an enormous amount of the handle bet in ordinary races. It is very similar to computers betting against computers now, and unless there are sucker actual people involved there is no sucker to beat.

All the normal people hate it, particularly because the CAW teams get special rebates on their wagers and special access to information and ways to bet. It is crooked as hell. Many of the CAWs are affiliated with race tracks. I tried to get EPAH to sue them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676476)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:17 AM
Author: Canary sex offender

are they just trying to arbitrage the lines?

what are the inputs the actually use?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676488)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:24 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

It's only arbitrage to the extent that the CAW teams get rebates from the tracks. To profit, the CAWs still need to be profitable bettors.

At a normal track, the takeout or take that goes to the track as a percentage of the handle might be 18 percent. If the CAWs get a 10 percent rebate for each dollar bet, they are have an advantage versus normal human players.

They use algorithms and have computers to make wagers. I don't know all the details for their inputs. Some people say they are allowed to bet after the gate has opened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676505)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM
Author: Chocolate garrison pistol

Are CAWs active even in small dollar races, like harness racing? Do their bets typically come in at the last second before the race starts?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676511)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Yes and yes. Although there is less dumb money to take at smaller tracks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676514)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:28 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Due to complaints, some circuits have barred CAWs from making last minute wagers in some pools but it is common to see a winner's odds drop dramatically during the race due to last minute wagers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676523)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:16 AM
Author: comical chrome love of her life

has anyone studied the statistical performances based on how much the horse shits pre-race?

Seems like a good amount of shitting would lighten the carrying weight to some degree.

can betters access this information?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676485)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:19 AM
Author: Canary sex offender

lol, yeah, or figure out how much the horse has eaten/slept in the past 48 hours or whatever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676491)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:22 AM
Author: comical chrome love of her life

Candy, pls address this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676500)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:26 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Some people say a horse shitting during a post parade is good luck, but I am unaware of any statistical analysis.

In am ordinary race, the horses are pumped up with lasix which is a diuretic with a goal to make them lighter.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676512)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:32 AM
Author: Copper misanthropic preventive strike piazza

isn't that stuff banned / tested for?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676535)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 11:33 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Its banned in 2 year old races and in graded stakes, but it is almost always used when it can be.

The therapeutic purpose is the prevent horses from having their lungs bleed while their are exerting themselves. Some horses are bleeders and need it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676541)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 12:26 PM
Author: Copper misanthropic preventive strike piazza

what about for the 3yr olds at the various 3xcrown events? is that a 'graded stake'? not familiar with the industry terms

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676724)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 12:39 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Lasix isn't permitted in any of the Triple Crown races. They are graded stakes. They are grade 1 races which are the most prestigious class.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47676758)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 3:27 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677263)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 4:01 PM
Author: Slate Dopamine Bawdyhouse

Do horses ever get boners right before or after they race?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677364)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 4:12 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Yes it happens.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677403)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 4:20 PM
Author: Slate Dopamine Bawdyhouse

Got any pics?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677445)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 4:20 PM
Author: Chocolate garrison pistol

Given the CAWs what bets do you recommend for the casual better? What are some interesting facts the casual better doesn’t know so I can impress my friends?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677441)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 4:31 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

When I started, I always played pick 5s because of the allure of big hits. I very rarely play pick 5s anymore. Just on big days.

Now I almost exclusively make straight win bets.

I have never been into vertical exotics like exactas, trifectas, and supers. Very rarely I might play an exacta.

The CAWs are in all the pools so there is probably no reason to change what wager you would make in response to them. People can beat the CAWs, so that is the long-term goal.

If you just know how all the different wagers work and basic strategy, that should impress people. Horse Racing for Dummies is a great book.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47677489)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 20th, 2024 7:46 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#47678031)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 2nd, 2025 4:23 AM
Author: costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace

you still poast?

i bet on horse racing for a living. im looking forward to Sovereignty laying down the pipe on Forever Young (JPN)

mark patterson left his post at mountaineer racecourse and it felt like a sign of the times but doug salvatore has done a good enough job filling the airwaves so fuck libs, and may this sport last another thousand years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49318922)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 2nd, 2025 5:13 AM
Author: galvanic boiling water famous landscape painting

not that poaster but I have family with a season box at Churchill and go a couple times a year, planning for something early in the fall meet rn

did you know Forever Young is owned by the president of the JP megacorp behind this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umamusume:_Pretty_Derby

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49318935)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 2nd, 2025 5:44 AM
Author: costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace

no i didnt until very recently.

Forever Young (JPN) SMOTHERCRUSHED his race yesterday

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49318944)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 8th, 2025 2:28 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Fierceness loves Del Mar. Kind of thinking about him at the moment although I have been on Sovereignty all the way until the Pacific Classic. Fuck Jap horses.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49334649)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2025 1:53 PM
Author: costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace

the breeders cup was amazing, i won $25k on Ethical Diamond

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49450005)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2025 3:40 PM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Really? 180.

This Tinky guy I follow on Twitter touted him before the race.

What was your angle? Are you mad his odds dropped in half?

That was one of the coolest races I have ever seen. Watched the replay over and over.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49456968)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2025 8:34 AM
Author: costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace

its just one of those judgment calls you have to make when a unique never seen before situation presents itself. i can't share this particular reason though.

another example is city of troy in the BCC in 2024. horse never looked comfortable in its practice gallops and i thought it had next to no chance. i laid it on betfair.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbcCDBypICE

listen to these mugs tell you the horse is going good. they are clueless. city of troy is at a full gallop while every other horse is cantering. hes also see-sawing and unbalanced in his action and never looked relaxed.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49458726)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2025 9:51 AM
Author: Exciting Iridescent Stock Car Toaster

Are you a workout watcher? I never have been.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49458898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2025 9:40 PM
Author: costumed out-of-control whorehouse electric furnace

I'm a computer dork, but the once-in-a-lifetime angles are stuff that computer models struggle with is an angle I've used for the big international races.

Equibase offers a complimentary sample data pack for 1 year worth of results if you want to be a dork. When you have confidence that what you have works, then you can start buying their fresh data products (I think it will cost less than $1000 a year), and of course bet somewhere where you can get rebates.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49461210)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2025 9:44 PM
Author: Razzle Skinny Woman



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49461217)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2025 9:47 PM
Author: topaz angry dilemma hunting ground



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5530234&forum_id=2:#49461220)