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The Economist analysis of Russian summer offensive - link

Regardless of whether and when America decides to supply Ukr...
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
I feel like the UA numbers are ridiculously undercounted but...
Adventurous pea-brained home
  10/18/25
The Ukrainian soldiers are in bunkers protected by drone net...
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
I agree with all of that; I'm just more skeptical of UA numb...
Adventurous pea-brained home
  10/18/25
...
Razzle-dazzle flirting mental disorder address
  10/18/25
Trenches and bunkers are not survivable. Mobility is the onl...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
You've been spouting this bs for years, and, if it were true...
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
It’s has run out of men which is why they are putting ...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
To be fair, “Ackkkkshually, if that were true, Ukra...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
...
Cowardly double fault
  10/21/25
...
razzle office
  10/19/25
If they recruited the way Russia does (relying on volunteers...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/20/25
Since the fall of Avdeevka the fight is increasingly happeni...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
I've noticed the absence of any trenches in Ukraine but wher...
180 ocher coldplay fan space
  10/24/25
Can’t a bomb destroy a drone net and then the drone fl...
Garnet Excitant Stead Regret
  10/18/25
Sure, but the russian task is harder. They need to identify ...
Razzle-dazzle flirting mental disorder address
  10/18/25
If they sit there they will be killed by mass fires correcte...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
The ongoing effect of Ukrain wrecking Russia's oil and gas i...
Thriller Filthy Plaza Mexican
  10/18/25
6 MILLION Russian troops are DET to Death and 6 BILLION moar...
Jet philosopher-king
  10/18/25
Stay mad turdboi
Thriller Filthy Plaza Mexican
  10/18/25
Russia is so fucking good at getting all its soldiers killed...
histrionic jade persian half-breed
  10/18/25
To be fair, “ sneered Adolf Hitler, smugly, c. late...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
...
Twinkling diverse corner goal in life
  10/18/25
...
razzle office
  10/19/25
I asked this question about our Navy - it seems historically...
Impressive Gold Lay
  10/18/25
If hundreds of one way drones are sent at a carrier, it is l...
honey-headed toaster dilemma
  10/19/25
I’ve asked the same question before you did. You Stole...
Supple coral masturbator stage
  10/20/25
We won't know for sure until someone launches a drone swarm ...
Primrose windowlicker
  10/21/25
hypersonics are not much harder to hit for top of the line A...
razzle office
  10/21/25
China claims that their hypersonics are super fast and also ...
Primrose windowlicker
  10/21/25
loling at the idea of a missile flying 1000+ miles pulling 1...
razzle office
  10/21/25
It is notable that Ukrainians massively overstate their AD s...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/21/25
It is notable that Russiacucks are gullible idiots who belie...
Primrose windowlicker
  10/21/25
Russian missiles overwhelmingly hit their targets, the hyper...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
lol, russian hit rates are up because they basically gave up...
razzle office
  10/24/25
...
Cowardly double fault
  10/24/25
LJL at this absolute flame. Ukraine only has 80k dead which ...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
Ukraine has somehow only lost 80k soldiers, but also on thei...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/18/25
To be fair, Yeah it’s a bit of an “odd case&r...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
Im really shocked that a third world shithole country with a...
Jet philosopher-king
  10/18/25
You're misrepresenting the Mediazona report. 219k estimate i...
bright boyish area
  10/18/25
The same methodology can’t be used on the Ukrainian si...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
To be fair, lol remember when the NYT was keeping a runni...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
Believe this to your hearts content. Russia will win this on...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
To be fair, Oh wow well I mean if the notorious midwit re...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
Visual confirmation of 32,121 Russian deaths over the past 2...
bright boyish area
  10/20/25
LMAO, at least you didn't cite to some ridiculously biased ....
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/20/25
...
razzle office
  10/20/25
I actually think his number of FPV strikes is 100% on point ...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/20/25
...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/20/25
...
Odious metal prole
  10/20/25
did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes ...
razzle office
  10/21/25
LJL at this flame. FPV cameras stop working at the hit. The...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/21/25
the video is from other drones…
razzle office
  10/21/25
...
bright boyish area
  10/21/25
"did you read their methodology? it does not include st...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/24/25
This has not been a good war for you, son. But stay mad. We ...
Sooty Headpube Genital Piercing
  10/18/25
It’s actually been a great war for Russia. Without mob...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/20/25
The art of war: get yourself trapped in a cauldron again and...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/18/25
I've seen no one reliable posting this.
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
you only post Ukraine propaganda that gets disproven in 24 h...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/18/25
...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
Russian forces are back in Krasny Lyman. All Ukrainian gains...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
To be fair, Yeah but a very smart and honest Jewish man o...
Odious metal prole
  10/18/25
Have a ton of pro-Ukraine twitter accounts on my list and wh...
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
Ok, bro. Whatever you say. Russia is still going to kill eve...
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/18/25
"I only read Ukraine propaganda" yeah we know. g...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/18/25
Are you Russian? Why the hard-on for them?
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/18/25
...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/20/25
everything is fine guys, nothing to see here https://x.com/...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/19/25
All Hahols will die.
Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration
  10/19/25
I’m sure Putler will succumb to his terminal ass cance...
bat shit crazy bateful messiness menage
  10/21/25
we don’t know when of course, but it is funny to watch...
razzle office
  10/21/25
Huh? Overwhelmingly similar. What do you imagine changes w...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
Medvedev??? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
razzle office
  10/22/25
He's probably the default guy at this point and has been for...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
you must be the dumbest russiacuck on the board. congrats
razzle office
  10/22/25
LMAO, or maybe they'll be inspired by Zelensky and ask him t...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
i don't think anything changes in their approach to Ukraine.
bat shit crazy bateful messiness menage
  10/22/25
...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/22/25
I can't remember a single rational person ever saying that P...
Primrose windowlicker
  10/22/25
...
razzle office
  10/22/25
...
Swollen tattoo french chef
  10/22/25
To be fair, LMAO yeah good point... except for the solid ...
Odious metal prole
  10/24/25
...
Cowardly double fault
  10/24/25
...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/24/25
...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/24/25
Did you even read the fucking NYT article about Putin's supp...
Primrose windowlicker
  10/24/25
Six Ukrainians die for every Russian. https://x.com/DD_Ge...
180 ocher coldplay fan space
  10/24/25
It increased to about 40:1 recently. It is 6:1 if you inclu...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/24/25
lol Russiacucks. Ukraine is advancing https://x.com/cream...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/24/25
Russian elite units are refusing to enter battle and disobey...
cerise insane tanning salon rigpig
  10/24/25
Seems likely Povrovsk will fall, but if that's Russia's only...
pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap
  10/24/25
the prize is hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians
Cowardly double fault
  10/24/25
I think everyone agrees with that. Even Ukrainians are sayin...
180 ocher coldplay fan space
  10/24/25
Kupiyansk is also in the final stages of collapse. Several ...
House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend
  10/26/25
Demoralization
180 ocher coldplay fan space
  10/24/25
Do we have any proof of Russian casualties in October 2025? ...
180 ocher coldplay fan space
  10/24/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 8:47 AM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

Regardless of whether and when America decides to supply Ukraine with the powerful missiles, Mr Putin has deeper reasons to worry. According to an analysis by The Economist, it is paying a huge cost in return for minimal gains on the battlefield.

Russia’s summer offensive is winding down. Many in the West focus on the grinding progress its troops have made, and the shortage of Ukrainian manpower it has exposed. But that is to look down the telescope from the wrong end. More striking is how little territory Russia has taken in its third and largest offensive; and the terrible cost it has paid in men and materiel. Unless something dramatic changes, Vladimir Putin will be unable to win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he nevertheless continues to try regardless suggests that he is out of ideas.

Exactly how poorly Russian forces have fared is impossible to tell. But data from satellites and shifts in areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying, and that permits a rough guess. This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers. Combining these data allows The Economist to estimate Russian losses and track them over time.

Our meta-estimate suggests that, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January of this year, Russian casualties amounted to 640,000–877,000 soldiers, of whom 137,000–228,000 have died. By October 13th, those totals had risen by almost 60%, to 984,000–1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000–480,000 dead.

Russia’s losses have not won a commensurate gain in territory. Since the battle lines stabilised after Ukraine’s first counteroffensive ended in October 2022, they have barely moved. No large city has changed hands. At the pace of the past 30 days, seizing what remains of the four regions Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until June 2030. (For Russia to occupy all of Ukraine would require a further 103 years.)

Moreover, a sudden collapse in Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely given how the two armies are fighting the war. Constant drone surveillance, coupled with long-range precision weaponry, has made massing forces near the front suicidal. Incremental gains remain possible—though only at enormous cost—by sending small groups of men into the “kill zone” to stake out forward positions. It is hard to breach Ukrainian lines. Should a breach happen, the advance of massed forces and equipment needed to exploit it is extremely difficult.

Perhaps that is why this summer’s fighting appears to have been much less deadly for Ukraine than for Russia. There is too little data for us to generate a meta-estimate of the cost to Ukraine. However, UALosses, a website, has catalogued 77,403 deaths among Ukrainian soldiers since the full-scale invasion began (it reckons a further 77,842 are missing in action). By date of death, there has been a marked downward trend since last autumn, with 8,668 fatalities recorded this year. Crucially, that is a lower bound, and although independent investigations have confirmed the fate of soldiers in the list, no one knows how many are missing from that count. Moreover, recent deaths are less likely to be in the database, as recording them takes time (some will never be included). But even if the true number is twice the tally, the figures would imply a ratio this year of roughly five Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian.

At such rates, manpower may soon become a more serious constraint for Russia than for Ukraine. When the offensive began, Russians were lured with generous sign-on bonuses, and Mr Putin’s recruitment drive outpaced Ukraine’s by 10,000-15,000 per month. But Russia’s heavy casualties this summer probably nullified that advantage.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/europe/2025/10/17/russia-latest-big-ukraine-offensive-gains-next-to-nothing-again

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357428)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 8:55 AM
Author: Adventurous pea-brained home

I feel like the UA numbers are ridiculously undercounted but otherwise I agree



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357435)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:12 AM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

The Ukrainian soldiers are in bunkers protected by drone nets and the like. To advance, the Russian soldiers have to expose themselves in the open. Plus, the Russian soldiers need courage to advance against drones. Drone operators can treat the whole thing like a video game.

Bottom line: war has always favored the defender, but that's far more true in the drone age.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357470)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:17 AM
Author: Adventurous pea-brained home

I agree with all of that; I'm just more skeptical of UA numbers since they've been much cagier with them

Also since most of the OSINT people and intelligence sources looking at this conflict that are talking about it are sympathetic to Ukraine it doesn't feel like there are the same incentives for third party analysts to be digging too deep into UA casualty figures.

I'm not saying the reality is some sort of AREReptile crap, trust me.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357477)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:15 AM
Author: Razzle-dazzle flirting mental disorder address



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357639)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:33 AM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

Trenches and bunkers are not survivable. Mobility is the only chance at survival at all. Both sides use small 2-4 man teams. It’s literally a giant game of tag. The Russians retain a mass fires advantage that is overwhelming. The kill ratio is something like 12:1 in Russia’s favor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357663)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 1:24 PM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

You've been spouting this bs for years, and, if it were true, Ukraine would have run out of men to fight a long time ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357916)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:22 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

It’s has run out of men which is why they are putting 70 year olds on the line and women.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358108)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 7:07 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

“Ackkkkshually, if that were true, Ukraine would be facing a serious shortage of manpower by now!”

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358465)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 4:33 AM
Author: Cowardly double fault



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363386)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 3:30 AM
Author: razzle office



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49359062)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 11:48 AM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

If they recruited the way Russia does (relying on volunteers) then they would have run out of men. But unlike Russia they conscript anything that moves.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361632)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:35 AM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

Since the fall of Avdeevka the fight is increasingly happening in tree lines with almost ZERO use of fortifications by either side.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357667)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:47 PM
Author: 180 ocher coldplay fan space

I've noticed the absence of any trenches in Ukraine but where's the footage showing where Russians are living these days? It seems like they stay 100 miles away and use drones until it's safe to enter the area. Every time Ukraine bombs something it's a civilian structure, like they don't know where the military targets are located

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373140)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 12:29 PM
Author: Garnet Excitant Stead Regret

Can’t a bomb destroy a drone net and then the drone fly through

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357792)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 1:07 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle flirting mental disorder address

Sure, but the russian task is harder. They need to identify where these fortifications are and then find a way to breach them. The ukrainians can litter the landscape with mines and drones and wait for russian assault teams to come out in the open and get chewed up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357885)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:43 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

If they sit there they will be killed by mass fires corrected by drones. Drones make a static defense suicide. Trenches on the line are not manned full time. The gray zone is 50km deep. The only thing even more obsolete than armored thrusts is static defense.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358134)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:02 AM
Author: Thriller Filthy Plaza Mexican

The ongoing effect of Ukrain wrecking Russia's oil and gas is going to be interesting. Russia is starting to see real protest on the streets already.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357446)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:03 AM
Author: Jet philosopher-king

6 MILLION Russian troops are DET to Death and 6 BILLION moar are injured according to my sources at the Jewish Information Agency

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357450)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:04 AM
Author: Thriller Filthy Plaza Mexican

Stay mad turdboi

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357454)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:50 AM
Author: histrionic jade persian half-breed

Russia is so fucking good at getting all its soldiers killed, truly the best

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357518)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 7:10 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

“ sneered Adolf Hitler, smugly, c. late 1942.

How did that one ultimately work out again? I know it was an absolutely catastrophic bloodbath for Russia, but I can’t actually remember which country ultimately “won” the war at the end of the fighting. Can you remind me?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358471)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 10:41 PM
Author: Twinkling diverse corner goal in life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358835)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 3:33 AM
Author: razzle office



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49359065)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 10:00 AM
Author: Impressive Gold Lay

I asked this question about our Navy - it seems historically that carrier units are sitting ducks once their location is known.

What use are they in the age of cheap drones and smart missiles?

Seems like that's almost even true on land now? Good luck getting past an enemy with long range weapons and drones watching your every move.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357532)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 3:22 AM
Author: honey-headed toaster dilemma

If hundreds of one way drones are sent at a carrier, it is likely the carrier deck gets hit multiple times. If planes can't take off from the carrier because of deck damage then the carrier is no use and will have to go back to port for repairs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49359060)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 12:46 PM
Author: Supple coral masturbator stage

I’ve asked the same question before you did. You Stole this from me. Military meatheads think a Carrier Battle Group is invincible.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361725)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 4:34 AM
Author: Primrose windowlicker

We won't know for sure until someone launches a drone swarm against a carrier group. You're not the first person to wonder if carriers are obsolete in the drone age. But it's far from clear that is the case.

First, it is very fucking difficult to hit a carrier with a long range missile. Modern carriers are fast, and if they detect a missile heading their direction, they can simply move out of the way. That's why China and Russia have spent so much money on hypersonic missiles. The theory is that they are so fast that they will hit a carrier before it can move. And carrier groups also have all kinds of missile interceptor weapons. We won't know if that will work until someone tries it. But we can say that smart missiles will definitely not make carriers obsolete quite yet.

As for drones, I'm sure the Pentagon is watching what is happening in Ukraine and trying to design countermeasures. Furthermore, most drones have relatively short range. You might be able to keep your carrier group safe by keeping it far enough out at sea so that drones can't reach it. But like I said, nobody will know for sure until someone tries it. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363387)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 4:45 AM
Author: razzle office

hypersonics are not much harder to hit for top of the line AD defense missiles unless they can also maneuver, which they can’t

even Ukraine has knocked down multiple Kindzhals, and they don’t have the top of the line stuff that carrier groups do

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363391)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:16 PM
Author: Primrose windowlicker

China claims that their hypersonics are super fast and also super maneuverable. Of course, Russia said the same thing, and their hypersonics were so maneuverable that they got completely turfed by Cold War-era Patriot systems. So we won't know until this war happens, but, at the bare minimum, I wouldn't assume that hypersonic smart missiles make carriers obsolete quite yet.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363847)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:18 PM
Author: razzle office

loling at the idea of a missile flying 1000+ miles pulling 10-15Gs and hitting a moving target

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363853)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:25 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

It is notable that Ukrainians massively overstate their AD successes and their real AD is banning showing the impacts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363874)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 7:22 PM
Author: Primrose windowlicker

It is notable that Russiacucks are gullible idiots who believe whatever stupid Russian propaganda they hear. Sorry that your fancy "hypersonic missiles" can't beat a U.S. system that was used in the first Gulf War.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49364902)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:39 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

Russian missiles overwhelmingly hit their targets, the hypersonics hit almost always. The argument is that the system may have gotten a hit, which wouldn't be shocking because they operate based on shockwaves damaging the missile, rather than the "arrow hitting an arrow" concept.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366488)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:38 PM
Author: razzle office

lol, russian hit rates are up because they basically gave up on going after areas that the Patriots protect and go for softer targets

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373117)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:58 PM
Author: Cowardly double fault



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373164)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:29 AM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

LJL at this absolute flame. Ukraine only has 80k dead which explains why Hahol men are hiding in basements from draft officers and dressing like women to avoid conscription. By conservative measures the Russians have killed 1.7 million Ukrainians and put an equal number into wheel chairs for life. The Russians are ripping 20sq km out of Ukraine daily and have been doing so for 2 years running. The advance is slow but inexorable and they are quite literally genociding Ukraine.

Mediazone/BBC has the most accurate Russian loss estimates — 135-219k dead. That’s 50k per year. Russia can sustain this forever.

https://en.zona.media/article/2025/10/10/casualties_eng-trl



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357659)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:39 AM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

Ukraine has somehow only lost 80k soldiers, but also on their 20th mobilization, having to kidnap people off the streets, and hundreds of thousands of desertions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357678)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 7:11 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

Yeah it’s a bit of an “odd case” (hehe)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358473)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:42 AM
Author: Jet philosopher-king

Im really shocked that a third world shithole country with a Jewish POTUS wld have their JEW overlords in the west putting fake causality numbers in the JEW owned western media so that JEW defense contracts cld continue enriching themselves

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357685)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 12:49 PM
Author: bright boyish area

You're misrepresenting the Mediazona report. 219k estimate is from probate court reports and 135k is a confirmed number from obituaries, tombstones, and online social media posts from family. The 219k estimate is also only through the end of August. Reports from telegram accounts note there are at least tens of thousands (maybe more) of additional MIA's on each side. And there are probably a lot of indigents and degenerates who died (they recruited from prisons) and don't have family to report the death online or file for probate.

Mediazona makes clear that the 219k is a low estimate that captures maybe 50-75% of the deaths through the end of August. 2x that is absolutely possible.

The same methodology is used on the Ukraine side as well. The Economist is correct to conclude that this is a stalemated conflict.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357853)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:21 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

The same methodology can’t be used on the Ukrainian side because they made it illegal to print obituaries and there are no functional probate courts in Ukraine so good luck getting any data at all. There is no good data. The Russian 1.7 million figure is basically from sat images of cemeteries. Mediazone numbers are actually BS overstatements for reasons Armchair Warlord has discussed at length on Twitter — Russians print obits and handle probate for guys that fought in Chechnya in 99, never stepped foot in Ukraine, died in 2023 and now magically are in the Mediazone math because their estates qualify for the same veterans benefits as the guy in Ukraine last month. Mediazone is assuming they signed new contracts with the MoD and didn’t just die from old age. This is nonsense math.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358106)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:15 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

lol remember when the NYT was keeping a running tally of “Covid deaths” (only during Trump though they immediately stopped that as soon as Biden took office odd case) and it was revealed that they were literally counting people who died in car accidents but had tested positive for Covid a week before they got struck in that count?

Yeah. Same vibes, very interesting! ;)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358479)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:24 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

Believe this to your hearts content. Russia will win this on the field. Ukraine will collapse. Nothing Yankee animals can do will change this. All Hahols will die. Every single last one.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358111)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:13 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

Oh wow well I mean if the notorious midwit retard who infamously has shitty and extremely partisan takes on just about every issue imaginable declares so…

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358476)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 11:28 AM
Author: bright boyish area

Visual confirmation of 32,121 Russian deaths over the past 260 days. These are only deaths by drones where footage was recorded. So we’re not seeing the many other ways soldiers die in this conflict. It also excludes wounded men in the footage, many of whom probably died shortly after. And it’s only from footage that’s actually posted on telegram channels. The deaths are easily 2x this. US intelligence isn’t exaggerating when they say Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties and likely at least 250k deaths.

https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1979774111191818546?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361612)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 11:52 AM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

LMAO, at least you didn't cite to some ridiculously biased ... oh, wait, you did.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361640)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 12:55 PM
Author: razzle office



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361744)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 4:07 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

I actually think his number of FPV strikes is 100% on point and the Hahols did hit that many Russians. I just don’t think an FPV strike is a guaranteed kill. It takes something like 20 FPV hits to actually kill a tank. Most IFVs are hit and abandoned to zero losses. For 32000 FPV hits a plausible kill count is maybe 10000 on the high end.

The Russians have more FPVs than Ukraine. Roughly 6 to 1. They also drop about 200 UMPK glide bombs per day. The glide bombs are what are killing entire Ukrainian company formations and why the real kill count is 12 or 13 to 1 in Russia’s favor. The new UMPKs are rocket assisted and have been flying out to 165km ranges. The Ukrainians are doing maybe 25 JDAM sorties a day to 200 on the Russian side. It’s not even close.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49362276)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 5:14 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49362444)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 8:46 PM
Author: Odious metal prole



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49362938)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 3:23 AM
Author: razzle office

did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes where the vatnik was still alive during the video recording, so the number of KIA is higher

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363371)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 6:35 AM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

LJL at this flame. FPV cameras stop working at the hit.

They dont provide post strike anything in these gore vids.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363445)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 6:58 AM
Author: razzle office

the video is from other drones…

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363465)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 8:05 AM
Author: bright boyish area



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363517)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:10 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

"did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes where the vatnik was still alive during the video recording, so the number of KIA is higher"

Link?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371989)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:44 PM
Author: Sooty Headpube Genital Piercing

This has not been a good war for you, son. But stay mad. We want you to.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358135)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 8:21 AM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

It’s actually been a great war for Russia. Without mobilizing and spending only 7% of GDP on defense it broke my the back of NATO and emptied every warehouse in the alliance.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361290)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 11:49 AM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

The art of war: get yourself trapped in a cauldron again and again.

https://x.com/squatsons/status/1979510263553614153

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357700)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 1:33 PM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

I've seen no one reliable posting this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49357931)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:45 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

you only post Ukraine propaganda that gets disproven in 24 hours. Go back to reddit, tranny

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358136)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:46 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366509)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:04 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

Russian forces are back in Krasny Lyman. All Ukrainian gains since 2022 are undone.

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979654934917419412

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358463)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:17 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

Yeah but a very smart and honest Jewish man on the internet assured me that 10 million Russians had to die to achieve this and only 20k Ukrainians have stubbed their toes on the battlefield so far. Russia is cooked!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358481)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:21 PM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

Have a ton of pro-Ukraine twitter accounts on my list and when something bad is going down, a lot of them are dooming. Am seeing nothing like that now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358486)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:38 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

Ok, bro. Whatever you say. Russia is still going to kill every last Hahol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358512)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 10:20 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

"I only read Ukraine propaganda"

yeah we know. go back to reddit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358806)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 10:29 PM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

Are you Russian? Why the hard-on for them?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49358818)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 11:49 AM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49361634)



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Date: October 19th, 2025 2:10 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

everything is fine guys, nothing to see here

https://x.com/ThorntonWa47373/status/1979591336962699724

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49360002)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 2:13 PM
Author: Lake Kink-friendly Internal Respiration

All Hahols will die.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49360009)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:33 PM
Author: bat shit crazy bateful messiness menage

I’m sure Putler will succumb to his terminal ass cancer any day now!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49363899)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 2:57 PM
Author: razzle office

we don’t know when of course, but it is funny to watch russiacucks squirm when you ask them to describe a post-Putin russia

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49364347)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:40 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

Huh? Overwhelmingly similar. What do you imagine changes with Medvedev in charge? If anything, he'll just say bomb every major Ukrainian city to the ground.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366491)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:41 PM
Author: razzle office

Medvedev???

🤣🤣🤣🤣

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366494)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:45 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

He's probably the default guy at this point and has been for years. Or do you imagine that Navalny's wife will be flown into Moscow to waiting protestors to be inaugurated to a Russian population yearning for FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY as they bend the knee to Brussels and DC, denuclearizing and surrendering as they BEG for McDonalds to return? Brussels, you do this schtick better, feel free to jump in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366503)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:59 PM
Author: razzle office

you must be the dumbest russiacuck on the board. congrats

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366553)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 3:10 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

LMAO, or maybe they'll be inspired by Zelensky and ask him to be their president. What do you think?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366578)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 4:47 PM
Author: bat shit crazy bateful messiness menage

i don't think anything changes in their approach to Ukraine.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366855)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 10:59 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49367578)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 5:44 PM
Author: Primrose windowlicker

I can't remember a single rational person ever saying that Putin had cancer or would die any time soon. Meanwhile, I think we all remember the thread where TBF boldly predicted that Kyiv would fall with 48 hours. Yet Russiacucks are the ones who want to pound their chests about incorrect predictions about the war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366978)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 5:50 PM
Author: razzle office



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49366987)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 10:18 PM
Author: Swollen tattoo french chef



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49367500)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 3:52 PM
Author: Odious metal prole

To be fair,

LMAO yeah good point... except for the solid ~6 months that the MSM spent actively pushing that retarded conspiracy theory which turned out to be total bullshit, a period which we all remember very well and still laugh about. Feel free to Google that btw, don't take my word for it -- here are two quick links to returns from the first page which I just pulled up in under 10 seconds:

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/leaked-documents-putin-health.html

NY POST: https://nypost.com/web-stories/putin-battling-cancer-and-parkinsons-disease-leaked-emails-claim/

BTW, speaking of "links," do you actually have a link to me ever predicting at any point that "Kyiv would fall in 48 hours"? I'll email you my XO username / password and you can permanently retire me forever if you produce that link. FWIW, I've never seen it myself.

Thanks in advance, champ!

LJL at kikes jfc

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371932)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 3:53 PM
Author: Cowardly double fault



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371936)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 4:07 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371982)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 4:10 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371988)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 5:52 PM
Author: Primrose windowlicker

Did you even read the fucking NYT article about Putin's supposed cancer? I thought this quote summed it up nicely: "No evidence has emerged to substantiate the claim, or many earlier ones, and the leaked document gives no indication that the United States finds it credible."

Meanwhile, I can't find the original thread, and search stopped working for me while I was looking for it. But I did find a couple threads referring to your prediction that were created shortly after the war started. Weird that everyone seems to be hallucinating the same prediction. It's sort of like how you also don't remember telling us that all of our money in ftx.us was safe.

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5083984&mc=6&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5054105&mc=3&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5075967&mc=4&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5138800&mc=2&forum_id=2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49372373)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:09 PM
Author: 180 ocher coldplay fan space

Six Ukrainians die for every Russian.

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1981330480977907896

For that matter I haven't seen footage of a single Russian being killed in months. I don't think they even have 100 KIA this year.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371987)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:11 PM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

It increased to about 40:1 recently. It is 6:1 if you include the early period which had a roughly 1:1 exchange rate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49371993)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 4:39 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

lol Russiacucks. Ukraine is advancing

https://x.com/creamy_caprice/status/1981794660218720640

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49372115)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 7:29 PM
Author: cerise insane tanning salon rigpig

Russian elite units are refusing to enter battle and disobeying orders

https://x.com/H4nsSprungfeld/status/1981849901106643045

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49372681)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 7:32 PM
Author: pink hairraiser brunch mad-dog skullcap

Seems likely Povrovsk will fall, but if that's Russia's only prize for this year's offensives then it's seriously underperforming.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49372688)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:34 PM
Author: Cowardly double fault

the prize is hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373040)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:40 PM
Author: 180 ocher coldplay fan space

I think everyone agrees with that. Even Ukrainians are saying it's "suicidal" to defend it. That's why they're disobeying orders, I guess?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373046)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 26th, 2025 1:12 AM
Author: House-broken amethyst whorehouse organic girlfriend

Kupiyansk is also in the final stages of collapse. Several other key cities are also likely to fall by EOY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49375277)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:38 PM
Author: 180 ocher coldplay fan space

Demoralization

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373045)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:41 PM
Author: 180 ocher coldplay fan space

Do we have any proof of Russian casualties in October 2025? I figured there'd be at least a dozen new snuff videos by now but I can't find 'em

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2Ã#49373122)