Favorite example of Spaceporn's stupidity and stubbornness: Blackjack Odds
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 8th, 2023 11:46 AM Author: Onyx deer antler
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4782366&mc=260&forum_id=2#42066943
this was the day i finally realized spaceporn was so stupid and stubborn that he would never concede an argument even when faced with incontrovertible mathematical evidence that someone playing blackjack "wrong" does not affect other people at the table. on this fateful day spaceporn got gakked out and spent the entire day arguing with multiple poasters in multiple subthread wastelands that a person playing blackjack sub-optimally would fuck up a card counters strategy. behold the majesty, the stupidity, and the stubbornness, of our favorite 20th year shitlaw associate.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284687) |
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Date: May 8th, 2023 12:03 PM Author: dull beady-eyed legal warrant mother
Earl almost had it right ultimately. But I was and am correct.
If you are using 5 decks to play blackjack, and someone next to you is card counting, and you *irrationally* make a play that doesn’t make sense, you are using cards that the counter would have reason to count out and expect elsewhere, at least until the decks were exhausted and reshuffled.
Earls point was that I am correct only insofar as a player plays a small number of hands before retiring. He argued that it all comes out in the wash on longer games. but my point remains.
It is literally reality testing that I’m telling you. I don’t know what else I can say.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284780) |
Date: May 8th, 2023 12:00 PM Author: Erotic home ceo
Amazing thread
Also demonstrates a total misunderstanding of card counting; it’s not like you’re actively predicting what the next card is, it’s knowing where you are in the deck and adjusting strategy and betting accordingly based on the OVERALL situation
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284763) |
Date: May 8th, 2023 12:24 PM Author: Chartreuse marvelous property
Lmao
What an absolute fucking moron
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284875) |
Date: May 8th, 2023 12:24 PM Author: Godawful Menage
So SP's argument is literally that if somebody hits when they should have stood, then they receive a jack, it screws up the card counter's operation because that person should not have received a jack. Similarly, if someone should have hit and doesn't receive a queen, it screws up the count because now they didn't receive the queen that should have been theirs.
Folks, they're not sending their best.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284879) |
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Date: May 8th, 2023 12:44 PM Author: Erotic home ceo
Okay--can you run your argument by me one more time?
For avoidance of doubt, my claim is that, while it may be psychologically understandable to be annoyed with the guy before you for 'wasting' a card that would have helped you on your turn, it's no more rational than being annoyed with the guy before you for hitting a good card when it made sense for him to hit.
(It may be more psychologically understandable because a guy who shows 11 and hits into a face card and a guy who shows 19 and hits into a face card have both 'robbed' you of your face card, but it's understandable why one of them would and not why the other would).
I'd further argue that the card counting thing is a non sequiter since card counting is about a generalized sense of when conditions are more favorable to the player than otherwise, but not about a given hand. The thing to remember is that while card counters can be quite successful, it's still a strategy with a lot of abstraction and room for error. It's not like card counters don't lose hands of blackjack when they're not trying to.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284957) |
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Date: May 8th, 2023 12:37 PM Author: Onyx deer antler
yeah.
but as the thread clearly says and as is oft repeated to him, the whole point is whether the frustration is rational or not. and it wouldn't be.
also, as was often explained to him, the bad player is just as likely to have taken a bad card. the bad player is just as likely to hurt you or help you.
since the maths are beyond spaceporn's understanding i tried to poast examples of card counters saying that that other people's play has no effect on the card counter's play. if spaceporn can't understand the math on why this is the case, surely experts unanimously agreeing about it would convince him, right? but no, of course not. the entire world, including the experts he's talking about, are wrong, and he's right.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284935) |
Date: May 8th, 2023 12:35 PM Author: Orchid stage
Holy shit LOL
Incredible find. Wow hahahahahahahahhahaha
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46284927) |
Date: May 8th, 2023 12:55 PM Author: Brass sadistic roommate kitchen
spaceporn is theoretically and marginally correct in one specific subset of this scenario, which is that in a hot deck to a counter, every future card that comes out of the deck is more likely than normal to return the deck to a neutral count because it's more likely than normal to be a ten/ace card.
under this theory, the counter is inconvenienced by previous players simply for seeing additional cards, although not for incorrect play - the counter should be just as pissed at someone with a <11 hand hitting correctly against a dealer 7-10 as someone with a 16 hitting against a dealer 6. in fact, the mere presence of any other player in this scenario is a negative to the counter, who would prefer to come in to a hot deck and play multiple hands across the entire felt.
this specific subset analysis ignores that the other players may yet drive the deck more positive and that positive and negative decks should occur with equal frequency, driven by the other players.
also, high-deck games and the cut card mean any change driven by other players hitting is so marginal as to be noise. these are all distinctions spaceporn did not seem to catch.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46285011) |
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Date: May 8th, 2023 1:17 PM Author: Onyx deer antler
but the argument isn't whether other players actions affect how hot the deck is, but whether it would be rational for a card counter to be frustrated by someone playing sub-optimally. it's obvious that cards being played affect what cards remain in the deck, and if a player is playing additional cards the deck is being thinned faster.
but there is no reason for someone to be rationally frustrated at someone "wasting" cards in a hot deck. after all, a card counter could choose to play every hand on the table if he wanted to avoid playing with other people. but this is exactly the opposite of what card counters do. they want to play with other people, because the more people are playing the faster the deck is used, and the quicker for a counter to reach a point where it's hot without having to bet on neutral or cold decks. this is why wonging (only joining a game when the deck is hot) is so popular and would be employed by every card counter if it didn't make it so obvious that a player was counting. if a card counter could, they would sit back and just observe games and only sit down to play when the deck was hot. thus, any marginal rational frustration that would come from an irrational player "wasting" cards in a hot deck is more than mitigated by the fact that additional players, regardless of how they are playing, benefit the card counter.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5336839&forum_id=2Ã#46285133) |
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