The Economist analysis of Russian summer offensive - link
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Date: October 18th, 2025 8:47 AM Author: lilac corner
Regardless of whether and when America decides to supply Ukraine with the powerful missiles, Mr Putin has deeper reasons to worry. According to an analysis by The Economist, it is paying a huge cost in return for minimal gains on the battlefield.
Russia’s summer offensive is winding down. Many in the West focus on the grinding progress its troops have made, and the shortage of Ukrainian manpower it has exposed. But that is to look down the telescope from the wrong end. More striking is how little territory Russia has taken in its third and largest offensive; and the terrible cost it has paid in men and materiel. Unless something dramatic changes, Vladimir Putin will be unable to win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he nevertheless continues to try regardless suggests that he is out of ideas.
Exactly how poorly Russian forces have fared is impossible to tell. But data from satellites and shifts in areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying, and that permits a rough guess. This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers. Combining these data allows The Economist to estimate Russian losses and track them over time.
Our meta-estimate suggests that, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January of this year, Russian casualties amounted to 640,000–877,000 soldiers, of whom 137,000–228,000 have died. By October 13th, those totals had risen by almost 60%, to 984,000–1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000–480,000 dead.
Russia’s losses have not won a commensurate gain in territory. Since the battle lines stabilised after Ukraine’s first counteroffensive ended in October 2022, they have barely moved. No large city has changed hands. At the pace of the past 30 days, seizing what remains of the four regions Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until June 2030. (For Russia to occupy all of Ukraine would require a further 103 years.)
Moreover, a sudden collapse in Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely given how the two armies are fighting the war. Constant drone surveillance, coupled with long-range precision weaponry, has made massing forces near the front suicidal. Incremental gains remain possible—though only at enormous cost—by sending small groups of men into the “kill zone” to stake out forward positions. It is hard to breach Ukrainian lines. Should a breach happen, the advance of massed forces and equipment needed to exploit it is extremely difficult.
Perhaps that is why this summer’s fighting appears to have been much less deadly for Ukraine than for Russia. There is too little data for us to generate a meta-estimate of the cost to Ukraine. However, UALosses, a website, has catalogued 77,403 deaths among Ukrainian soldiers since the full-scale invasion began (it reckons a further 77,842 are missing in action). By date of death, there has been a marked downward trend since last autumn, with 8,668 fatalities recorded this year. Crucially, that is a lower bound, and although independent investigations have confirmed the fate of soldiers in the list, no one knows how many are missing from that count. Moreover, recent deaths are less likely to be in the database, as recording them takes time (some will never be included). But even if the true number is twice the tally, the figures would imply a ratio this year of roughly five Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian.
At such rates, manpower may soon become a more serious constraint for Russia than for Ukraine. When the offensive began, Russians were lured with generous sign-on bonuses, and Mr Putin’s recruitment drive outpaced Ukraine’s by 10,000-15,000 per month. But Russia’s heavy casualties this summer probably nullified that advantage.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/europe/2025/10/17/russia-latest-big-ukraine-offensive-gains-next-to-nothing-again
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357428) |
Date: October 18th, 2025 8:55 AM Author: exciting chestnut ceo
I feel like the UA numbers are ridiculously undercounted but otherwise I agree
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357435)
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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:17 AM Author: exciting chestnut ceo
I agree with all of that; I'm just more skeptical of UA numbers since they've been much cagier with them
Also since most of the OSINT people and intelligence sources looking at this conflict that are talking about it are sympathetic to Ukraine it doesn't feel like there are the same incentives for third party analysts to be digging too deep into UA casualty figures.
I'm not saying the reality is some sort of AREReptile crap, trust me.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357477)
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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:07 PM Author: territorial hospital
To be fair,
“Ackkkkshually, if that were true, Ukraine would be facing a serious shortage of manpower by now!”
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49358465) |
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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:10 PM Author: territorial hospital
To be fair,
“ sneered Adolf Hitler, smugly, c. late 1942.
How did that one ultimately work out again? I know it was an absolutely catastrophic bloodbath for Russia, but I can’t actually remember which country ultimately “won” the war at the end of the fighting. Can you remind me?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49358471) |
Date: October 18th, 2025 10:00 AM Author: Garnet Sneaky Criminal Indirect Expression
I asked this question about our Navy - it seems historically that carrier units are sitting ducks once their location is known.
What use are they in the age of cheap drones and smart missiles?
Seems like that's almost even true on land now? Good luck getting past an enemy with long range weapons and drones watching your every move.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357532) |
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Date: October 21st, 2025 4:34 AM Author: Poppy Persian Messiness
We won't know for sure until someone launches a drone swarm against a carrier group. You're not the first person to wonder if carriers are obsolete in the drone age. But it's far from clear that is the case.
First, it is very fucking difficult to hit a carrier with a long range missile. Modern carriers are fast, and if they detect a missile heading their direction, they can simply move out of the way. That's why China and Russia have spent so much money on hypersonic missiles. The theory is that they are so fast that they will hit a carrier before it can move. And carrier groups also have all kinds of missile interceptor weapons. We won't know if that will work until someone tries it. But we can say that smart missiles will definitely not make carriers obsolete quite yet.
As for drones, I'm sure the Pentagon is watching what is happening in Ukraine and trying to design countermeasures. Furthermore, most drones have relatively short range. You might be able to keep your carrier group safe by keeping it far enough out at sea so that drones can't reach it. But like I said, nobody will know for sure until someone tries it. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49363387) |
Date: October 18th, 2025 11:29 AM Author: Diverse Henna Dog Poop Set
LJL at this absolute flame. Ukraine only has 80k dead which explains why Hahol men are hiding in basements from draft officers and dressing like women to avoid conscription. By conservative measures the Russians have killed 1.7 million Ukrainians and put an equal number into wheel chairs for life. The Russians are ripping 20sq km out of Ukraine daily and have been doing so for 2 years running. The advance is slow but inexorable and they are quite literally genociding Ukraine.
Mediazone/BBC has the most accurate Russian loss estimates — 135-219k dead. That’s 50k per year. Russia can sustain this forever.
https://en.zona.media/article/2025/10/10/casualties_eng-trl
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357659)
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Date: October 18th, 2025 12:49 PM Author: wonderful philosopher-king haunted graveyard
You're misrepresenting the Mediazona report. 219k estimate is from probate court reports and 135k is a confirmed number from obituaries, tombstones, and online social media posts from family. The 219k estimate is also only through the end of August. Reports from telegram accounts note there are at least tens of thousands (maybe more) of additional MIA's on each side. And there are probably a lot of indigents and degenerates who died (they recruited from prisons) and don't have family to report the death online or file for probate.
Mediazona makes clear that the 219k is a low estimate that captures maybe 50-75% of the deaths through the end of August. 2x that is absolutely possible.
The same methodology is used on the Ukraine side as well. The Economist is correct to conclude that this is a stalemated conflict.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357853) |
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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:15 PM Author: territorial hospital
To be fair,
lol remember when the NYT was keeping a running tally of “Covid deaths” (only during Trump though they immediately stopped that as soon as Biden took office odd case) and it was revealed that they were literally counting people who died in car accidents but had tested positive for Covid a week before they got struck in that count?
Yeah. Same vibes, very interesting! ;)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49358479) |
Date: October 18th, 2025 11:49 AM Author: erotic toilet seat gaming laptop
The art of war: get yourself trapped in a cauldron again and again.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1979510263553614153
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49357700) |
Date: October 18th, 2025 7:04 PM Author: Diverse Henna Dog Poop Set
Russian forces are back in Krasny Lyman. All Ukrainian gains since 2022 are undone.
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979654934917419412
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49358463) |
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Date: October 24th, 2025 3:52 PM Author: territorial hospital
To be fair,
LMAO yeah good point... except for the solid ~6 months that the MSM spent actively pushing that retarded conspiracy theory which turned out to be total bullshit, a period which we all remember very well and still laugh about. Feel free to Google that btw, don't take my word for it -- here are two quick links to returns from the first page which I just pulled up in under 10 seconds:
NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/leaked-documents-putin-health.html
NY POST: https://nypost.com/web-stories/putin-battling-cancer-and-parkinsons-disease-leaked-emails-claim/
BTW, speaking of "links," do you actually have a link to me ever predicting at any point that "Kyiv would fall in 48 hours"? I'll email you my XO username / password and you can permanently retire me forever if you produce that link. FWIW, I've never seen it myself.
Thanks in advance, champ!
LJL at kikes jfc
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49371932) |
Date: October 24th, 2025 4:09 PM Author: Umber depressive
Six Ukrainians die for every Russian.
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1981330480977907896
For that matter I haven't seen footage of a single Russian being killed in months. I don't think they even have 100 KIA this year.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49371987) |
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Date: October 26th, 2025 1:12 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,...,:,...:..:.,:.::,.
Kupiyansk is also in the final stages of collapse. Several other key cities are also likely to fall by EOY.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2в#49375277) |
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