For instance - there are millions and millions of homes right now in default that banks have not yet foreclosed on. They are trying to modify these loans - but at some point, a lot of these people are going to lose their houses. And banks are going to take huge hits to their bottom lines.

We're a long long way from out of the woods.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14354352)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35780328

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14355029)

oil is getting more and more expensive. hard to come back from a recession without cheap oil.

second of all, unemployment is still high.

how can banks make loans if people can't pay it back? more loans = larger economy. that's how we expanded so fast (also the reason we crashed too - expanded too fast for real growth to catch up).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14357845)

I didn't really start following until the shit hit the fan in Aug/Sept '08. So, I really don't have much experience with that is 'normal' growth. I think I was pretty used to the fast upward trend that was really happening since March '08. Maybe what is happening since the holidays is pretty normal. I just don't have much with which to compare it on a personal level.

I really wish I knew more about it back then. I had some extra cash, and I was really considering putting it into the auto industry, when it was crashing. I could have made some good bank on that, at the time. I wasn't doing anything else with the money. Oh, well.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358199)

everyone is a winner when the market is uptrending. it's over the long term - can you beat the market? the answer is pretty much a resounding no.

you can't just think of market %gain but also you beta or risk involved. Of course you'll gain a bigger % on small caps than large caps. and growing companies over cash cows. BUT you'll also lose more in a downward market.

second of all - you have no idea what's really going on with the auto industry other than what you read from 3rd, 4th, and 5th generation knowledge. even the workers don't have all that knowledge. nor the managers. it's the true insiders (government agencies, presidents, vps) that really have a huge advantage here. when they sell you sell but then it's too late.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358410)

But, like I said, I have no real knowledge; I just like to follow it, and I regret I didn't invest when I had a chance. Then again, it was just a hunch, and like you said, I would have probably lost in the long-term, since it is easy to make money when there has been a pretty strong upward trend since last March. That doesn't take expertise.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358494)

this means nothing. when things go bad they go bad quickly. not a slow downward trend. it just snaps.

we all have our picks. and you'll probably pick more right than wrong (that's just the nature of it all). but that doesn't mean you did well. you have to look at RISK to REWARD. and many people do not take that into account. they just look at how much they would have gained if they made that pick.

i wish you the best of luck but it looks like you are gambling not investing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358543)

i read about this 15 year old kid. fucking brilliant move back in the day. he basically created a ton of fake accounts on yahoo finance. would buy some shares in some stocks. then pump the shit out of them on the boards. then sell his shares. did this several times. kid ended up being a millionaire at 15.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358652)

also really depends on your country too. you can get away with a lot in certain countries and fuck over people in other countries (where laws are more stringent)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358693)

The country just thought it elected a peacenik. It didn't and it never will. Congress just passed a massive defense budget without a scintilla of debate during a massive economic crisis.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358292)

The reason OIL is so special is that it's practically pure CHEAP energy. when energy becomes expensive so does everything around you. life will drastically change if this is the case.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358330)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358596)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom_Box

60 Minutes featured it a few weeks ago. I wonder how effective it will be.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358605)

it doesn't have that high power that is required for those. for a few lights and your laptop. it'll work for that but the cost still doesn't outweigh cheap electricity.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358682)

like you said, it's not cheap to extract and refine (like the sand tar fields). but we've already hit our "peak" and when it goes bad. it's going to hit hard. think 1970s but worse.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358565)

The reason they aren't increasing is because American business is as healthy as 1971 right now.. and worth about as much

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1246689&forum_id=2#14358851)