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ITT: help me figure out how to profit from student loan bubble
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
| Hateful swollen french chef famous landscape painting | 09/06/10 |
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
| Cerise gay wizard | 09/06/10 |
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
| Twisted Tattoo Range | 09/06/10 |
| Carnelian deranged area codepig | 09/06/10 |
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
| heady spot potus | 09/06/10 |
| brass godawful lettuce hominid | 09/06/10 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 6th, 2010 12:21 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid i'm 100% convinced that there is a student loan bubble. almost $1 trillion in debt, more than the amount of consumer credit debt, 60% of which is either in default, deferment or forbarance (a little less than 10% is in default). tuition rates are ridiculously high and have almost doubled since the mid-90's.
thing is, the gov't guaranteed most of it. so i can't just, say, short Sallie Mae. is there a way to make money off of this? |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 12:23 PM Author: Hateful swollen french chef famous landscape painting It is gonna be fun when the student loan system collapses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15977782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 12:28 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid thing is, as far as i can tell, it's just the gov't who is going to be left holding the bag. and i'd short Treasuries or something, but the amount of debt compared to the overall gov't debt isn't enough to really move them.
the guarantors are gov't sponsored private entities though like Fannie and Freddie. maybe they're public? haven't looked into it.
also, i'm not sure how much of the outstanding debt is private loans. i should look in to how much that is on say Sallie Mae's books, then what % is in deferment/forbearance. maybe there's something there. |
Date: September 6th, 2010 6:55 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15980877) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:00 PM Author: Cerise gay wizard If you figure out a way let me know (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15980945) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:02 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid do you know the names of the main guarantor companies? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15980958) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:02 PM Author: Twisted Tattoo Range short private school companies like apollo group. the vast majority of their money comes from government subsidized loans. if the bubble pops, the government will restrict credit to less-able students, which will destroy or squeeze the profitability of these companies. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15980965) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:05 PM Author: Carnelian deranged area codepig yep.
short Sallie Mae too |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:07 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid i wonder what % of their loans are private though compared to their entire portfolio. they just took a huge hit when the gov't switched to direct lending (ending the majority of their student loan business). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15981014) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:06 PM Author: heady spot potus LULZ at thinking the Obama administration will give up the ghost on the "Schoolz is teh makes you richer" scam (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15981005) |
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Date: September 6th, 2010 7:09 PM Author: brass godawful lettuce hominid what i need is some type of bet that is not time specific. it's absolutely a bubble, but look how long the housing thing went on. those that won big on it started placing adverse bets as early as 2002 and 2003. so, shorting specific companies probably won't work. if i could buy a really long term option, that might work. but i don't think you can go more than 1 or 2 years, right? for an individual investor. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1415837&forum_id=2#15981032) |