Boomers final trick will be a 20 year bear market
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 7th, 2014 11:24 AM Author: scarlet rehab ratface
Boomers are looking at the longest retirement period of any generation ever, some 20-30 years on average. This means that stocks are actually an increasing and important part of their retirement strategy. 10 year t-notes won't get it done. So working boomers are currently on a massive equity buying binge. But once the youngest boomer finally hits 65, they will institute a perpetual selling of equities. Because they hold the majority of the wealth, they will drown out millennials attempting to buy in. The stock market will be flat until all their assets have been spent or converted to bonds.
This will suck ass and the day your parents die the Dow will be down, their last shares of GE sold to pay for the funeral. Buzzfeed's lead story will be that the Social Security Trust Fund is officially insolvent.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#25147110) |
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Date: December 24th, 2018 1:47 PM Author: carnelian dashing brethren brunch
there isn't one
boomer teachers taught gen x and gen y to leave the world a better place than they found it
gen x and gen y bought it and boomers laughing all the way to long retirements, sex club nursing homes, and pensions pensions pensions
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#37463996)
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Date: March 7th, 2014 12:18 PM Author: Ocher Corner
definitely
senior housing properties
companies that make stuff like knee and hip replacements
companies that sell clothing to increasingly insecure and vain boomer women
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#25147382)
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Date: March 7th, 2014 12:21 PM Author: Ocher Corner
A good one I have found is
LTC - they invest in senior housing and autistim care housing, 5.5% dividend, payments monthly
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#25147417)
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Date: September 4th, 2017 8:53 AM Author: opaque provocative dilemma
Date: August 15th, 2015 3:21 PM
Author: colt, rode off into sunset 12/22/2015
General market exposure is not the place to find value atm
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=#)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#34134012) |
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Date: September 4th, 2017 9:08 AM Author: opaque provocative dilemma
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:23 PM
Author: Refunkulus (Some guys prefer syrup - but I prefer the jelly.)
index funds are already becoming dangerous in my mind
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#25147439)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#34134025) |
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:22 PM Author: concupiscible site
Yesterday at my gym I overheard 3 disgusting shitboomers talk about y heir recent trip to Aspen. Guys were probably 60-65, and looked likerich douchebags. One guy is like "Hey Bob, any hanky panky going on in those hot tubs after skiing?"
Another shitboomers was like "not in my cabin, but I hear Bill's cabin was rocking."
Then one of the boomers was left and one of his friends said "Be well Jim. Remember, lots of sex and alcohol!"
They were having this conversation loudly in front of several familes witg children. Do these fucks have zero shame?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#25147421) |
Date: February 9th, 2015 12:02 AM Author: carnelian dashing brethren brunch
protracted bear market is extremely unlikely.
stocks are valued in order to make money that justifies the risks
therefore, if the market overall is seen as likely shitty for a long time, what is more likely to happen is that it takes a hard hit over a short period of time in order to reset.
a slow descent over a long period of time would take some uber skills by the fed and a hell of a lot of luck.
I know japan had a flat market for a long time, but that's not a bear market
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#27277852) |
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Date: June 16th, 2015 2:20 PM Author: scarlet rehab ratface
Withdrawals from 401(k) plans are now exceeding new contributions as baby boomers age, a shift that could have profound implications for the U.S. retirement industry.
Investors pulled a net $11.4 billion from tax-deferred savings plans in 2013, according to an analysis of government data provided to The Wall Street Journal by BrightScope Inc., ending decades of expansion. Complete industry information for 2014 isn’t yet available.
The movement out of 401(k)s is expected to accelerate in the coming decade as more baby boomers retire, squeezing large money-management firms that rely on fees charged to employers and investors as a chief profit engine, some analysts said.
Asset managers hope they can replace the outflows with a new surge from millennials or other products, such as individual retirement accounts. One industry data provider said most funds leaving 401(k)-style plans are migrating to IRAs.
It is “an inflection point” for the U.S. retirement industry, said J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. analyst Ken Worthington in a research note in April.
Large money managers will be forced to cut fees, offer different products or consolidate operations, Mr. Worthington added in an interview. “It changes the dynamic of the business itself.”
Tax-deferred 401(k) retirement accounts came into wide use in the 1980s as big companies embraced them as a replacement for costly pension funds. Baby boomers were the first generation to rely heavily on the savings plans and helped create a multitrillion-dollar industry that supported hundreds of investment firms and financial planners.
Assets held by 401(k) plans ballooned to $4.6 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 171% from $1.7 trillion in 2000, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade organization for mutual funds.
Now the 401(k) generation is ready to take its money out as the number of Americans reaching retirement age this year is expected to hit 3.5 million, up from 2.7 million in 2010, according to J.P. Morgan Chase and Census Bureau data.
One investor preparing to begin his exit is Dave Bernard, 56 years old, who retired three years ago as a consultant to startups in Cupertino, Calif. He and his wife, an office manager, both have a sizable amount invested in their 401(k)s, but in the coming months, when his wife retires, Mr. Bernard will start pulling money out of his plan for living expenses.
He expects to make withdrawals for about 10 years until he can access the full amount of Social Security benefits.
“We’re going to end up using a good portion of our 401(k) to subsidize us,” Mr. Bernard says.
The biggest 401(k) operators in the U.S. noticed the shift first since they generally serve older workers, according to BrightScope. In the past four years, investors pulled a net $12.8 billion from the top 25 plans by assets, according to BrightScope.
Estimates vary on how long the 401(k) net outflows will last and how severe they will become. Financial-services research firm Cerulli Associates projects outflows will persist at least until 2019 when investors will pull an estimated $51.6 billion, according to a December report. J.P. Morgan predicted in its April note the trend will last through 2030, with outflows peaking at $40 billion in 2019.
That money could stay with the retirement industry if baby boomers move 401(k) funds to IRAs. Contributions into IRAs are expected to reach $546 billion by 2019, up from $205 billion in 2003, according to Cerulli.
Some money managers are banking on another demographic group to reverse this shift: millennials. But they acknowledge that will require some convincing.
“Millennials haven’t moved into a higher savings rate yet,” said Douglas Fisher, Fidelity Investment’s head of policy development on workplace retirement. Fidelity is one of the largest providers of 401(k)s, managing accounts for 13 million people across 20,000 companies.
“We need to start getting them to the right level,” he said.
But even if millennials boost their savings, it will take some time for asset managers to see the benefits, said Mr. Worthington of J.P. Morgan.
“Redemptions in the industry are actually going to get worse for the next four to five years,” he said.
Scott David, the head of U.S. investment services for fund firm T. Rowe Price Group Inc., says the key to offsetting outflows from retirement plans is to move older workers into different products at the firm. T. Rowe also is among the largest 401(k) providers.
“Their distribution from a 401(k) plan just means they’re entering a different part of their life,” he says. “They still have investment needs, but their investment needs will change a bit.”
Some money-management firms are expected to lower fees in an attempt to keep market share.
Vanguard Group and Fidelity recently made moves to cut fees in retirement products, and 401(k) participants invested in stock mutual funds paid an average expense ratio of 0.58% in 2013 as compared with 0.63% a year earlier, according to the Investment Company Institute and Lipper Analytics, a mutual-fund research firm. Other fee rates in mutual funds also dropped that year.
One investor who is ready to pull money even though she doesn’t need it is Denise Dobkowski Hammond, 68, who retired about seven ago from her post as treasurer of West Bloomfield, Mich. Ms. Hammond says she saved as much as she could her entire life, putting the maximum amount into her retirement accounts and paying off her house.
Ms. Hammond said she doesn’t need her savings to live on, but a federal law requires her to start withdrawing money from her 401(k) at age 70½.
“I’ll pull out the minimum unless the kids need something,” she said.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#28133145) |
Date: February 13th, 2019 3:31 PM Author: curious yellow box office boltzmann
boomers are like that parasite that lives inside bugs, sucking away until finally shit breaks and u see a 20 inch wet worm scurvying away from a dry empty husk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ap8Ts6lv_k0
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#37776884) |
Date: February 13th, 2019 3:52 PM Author: Metal red theatre
Things aren’t as bad as this thread makes them seem. The reality is that babyboomers are idiots, and their prime earning years were the period where the top 1% got insanely wealthy while the bottom half lived paycheck to paycheck. This means that over half of them have *zero retirement savings* and only a quarter of them have an actual pension. Another quarter of them plan to work until 70, so the effects of this sell off will be blunted by their generation’s religious devotion to income inequality. The superrich boomers will sell off, but on a much longer timeline and with a significant portion maintained as an estate/bequest. The bottom half of boomers will have to survive off of social security and the second quartile won’t fully leave the work force until after 2025 and they will be mostly dead by 2035.
https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/02/28/10-statistics-that-prove-baby-boomers-are-in-big-t.aspx
But more hilarious than all that is Gen X, who are totally fucked on retirement savings:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/won-apos-t-believe-many-190000514.html
The bottom half of Gen X has saved nothing and will have to take on more risk to build up any kind of retirement savings by their 60s. Probably 50+% of Gen X will work until they are 70.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&forum_id=2#37777007)
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