this is nuts. interest rates will rise, and you're gonna be fucked. just make sure you're diversified among equities (small/mid/large, significant international exposure, etc.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#25243769)

dont play games like this. what if it keeps appreciating? you might lose 5-10% more gains. and then you're going to buy back at even higher? you're not going to time the market.

"the only cheap (expense ratio less than a half-percent) stock fund in the 401k plan is an sp500 index, which i dont think i want to be into right now. "

well, it's better than anything else in your 401k. get back in that and let it do what it do.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#25243821)

But market timing is insane for a non-professional. You may be incurring fees too for moving around like that. You should set up automatic balancing and be in the S&P index fund at least 50 percent.

If you're worried about a market drop just accumulate cash. Churning like this is a bad idea.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#25243908)

You could put your money into a basket of short term bonds if you knew what you were doing (even though its a difficult task and is risky for unlearned investors)and gotten the principal back in one or two years after they mature and hopefully you would have been able to ride out a period of extreme volitility.

but with the bond funds its a little more risky.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#25243806)

BLV +8.58%

VTI -1.37%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#26517674)

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-13/u-dot-s-dot-oil-prices-are-dropping-but-drilling-is-more-expensive

I especially love the idea that oil is off because of Libyan production. That country is imploding they will hit 300k barrels before they ever hit a million.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#26518131)

If you want low risk/moderate returns, buy high dividend ETFs. Going into bonds when prime is 0.XX% is suicide.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#26986930)

my 401k is now about 50k in a bond fund and 30k in the S&P500 index fund. i churned back into the S&P on dips.

yes i would have been better off just putting it all in the S&P earlier this year.

i still think there was some reasonable basis to treat the bond fund in the 401k as a place to store dry powder in the event of a major decline in the equities markets. i concede that if interest rates go up that may trigger declines in stocks and bonds, but there could be scenarios where equities decline and bonds are steady or increase in value, aren't there?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2525167&forum_id=2#27012358)