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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:

December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan&quo...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/10/15
...
Turquoise glittery bawdyhouse
  12/12/15
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  01/02/17
...
razzmatazz site rigpig
  01/06/16
...
180 stubborn church boistinker
  01/06/16
another bump
180 stubborn church boistinker
  06/05/16
180
costumed patrolman whorehouse
  03/26/16
...
Chrome base
  01/02/17
"October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trum...
slate forum
  10/25/18
...
Overrated coldplay fan
  12/10/15
1800000000
infuriating razzle-dazzle casino candlestick maker
  12/10/15
180
translucent milk factory reset button
  12/10/15
Fantastic work ITT
beady-eyed house selfie
  12/10/15
...
Talented macaca
  12/15/15
FUCK | THIS | KIKE
swashbuckling mahogany voyeur
  12/10/15
Poasting in a historic thread.
Peach roommate
  12/10/15
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too. Not sayi...
Canary misanthropic background story abode
  12/10/15
...
Out-of-control heaven boltzmann
  12/11/15
Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based ...
ruddy turdskin
  12/12/15
Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to im...
bespoke office organic girlfriend
  12/16/15
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle Ye...
big impressive area doctorate
  01/04/16
...
seedy telephone tank
  11/09/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/11/15
...
lake fluffy theater
  12/11/15
180 million
Supple school kitty
  12/11/15
November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority f...
Out-of-control heaven boltzmann
  12/11/15
...
mind-boggling carnelian address
  12/12/15
Don't edit loser
Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park
  01/25/16
...
aphrodisiac party of the first part
  11/10/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/12/15
...
Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter
  12/12/15
lol
Arrogant cream hell cuckoldry
  12/12/15
March 9 THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN March 1...
provocative cocky reading party home
  12/12/15
...
bright locus masturbator
  12/15/15
1 fuckin' 80
Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth
  12/21/15
...
Lilac effete fortuitous meteor
  12/12/15
lol, 180
Amber elastic band
  12/12/15
...
titillating smoky depressive stage
  12/12/15
...
charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency
  12/12/15
Well done.
Histrionic brunch new version
  12/12/15
Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke mys...
Gaped multi-colored business firm
  12/12/15
OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trum...
Peach roommate
  12/15/15
And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a n...
Peach roommate
  12/16/15
190
Heady Rehab
  12/15/15
fuck u for making me laugh
Dark Domesticated Round Eye
  12/15/15
I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first p...
White Filthy Dysfunction
  12/15/15
180
disrespectful athletic conference
  12/15/15
February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hamps...
gay feces
  12/15/15
You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice b...
Coral partner
  12/15/15
Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-to...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentucky...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  12/15/15
...
Mildly Autistic Disturbing Sanctuary Potus
  01/05/16
Can't wait to bump this
Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park
  01/25/16
...
Brindle nudist puppy
  12/17/16
...
Vivacious associate
  05/18/16
...
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  08/12/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-c...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/09/16
...
Vibrant balding goyim
  11/09/16
Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And...
Comical Orchestra Pit Trump Supporter
  11/09/16
...
Soul-stirring Bbw Piazza
  10/22/20
This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing.
internet-worthy racy principal's office
  12/15/15
180
Jet passionate shrine
  12/16/15
...
bat shit crazy big-titted ratface
  12/16/15
Incredible
mint sadistic codepig
  12/16/15
Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/fe...
Puce Hall
  12/16/15
Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeig...
Puce Hall
  12/17/15
...
Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home
  12/18/15
...
razzmatazz site rigpig
  01/06/16
...
Fear-inspiring idiot friendly grandma
  12/18/15
Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By ...
Puce Hall
  12/21/15
"Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http:/...
Puce Hall
  12/21/15
1 fuckin' 80
Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth
  12/21/15
"micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief ...
Puce Hall
  12/30/15
One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concent...
Puce Hall
  12/30/15
This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in...
Puce Hall
  01/04/16
flawless OP. uninflated 180.
big impressive area doctorate
  01/04/16
ty for all the updates itt
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  01/05/16
Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread
Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park
  01/25/16
From Silver's Twitter: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?...
Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home
  01/05/16
1800000000000
Vigorous goal in life
  01/05/16
...
awkward step-uncle's house
  01/05/16
An historic poast
Appetizing native juggernaut
  01/05/16
180 trillion
Sickened fiercely-loyal karate
  01/05/16
I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys http:...
Appetizing native juggernaut
  01/05/16
...
razzmatazz site rigpig
  01/06/16
Bump to make sure my friends saw this
Appetizing native juggernaut
  01/06/16
No bias there right? What a shitbird.
Sickened fiercely-loyal karate
  01/05/16
...
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  01/06/16
...
Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth
  01/07/16
“HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time maga...
Puce Hall
  01/08/16
180 if not copy paste
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  01/08/16
...
Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth
  01/08/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald...
Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home
  01/09/16
...
Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth
  01/10/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-u...
Puce Hall
  01/18/16
Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/...
Puce Hall
  01/19/16
looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nom...
Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home
  01/21/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  01/25/16
180000000000000000000000000000000000000
transparent exciting garrison
  01/25/16
You're a democratic, remember?
Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park
  01/25/16
No way! 100% TRUMPMO
transparent exciting garrison
  02/09/16
(2-time shitbama voter)
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  09/06/16
...
razzmatazz site rigpig
  11/05/18
...
flesh harsh church building
  01/29/16
...
Puce Hall
  02/01/16
...
odious indian lodge
  02/01/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  02/01/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  02/07/16
...
Vigorous goal in life
  02/09/16
...
crusty claret resort
  02/09/16
...
Puce Hall
  02/20/16
OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predi...
cracking cyan cruise ship travel guidebook
  02/20/16
PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE
Vivacious associate
  02/24/16
The OP is XO at its peak brilliance.
sexy institution pocket flask
  02/24/16
...
learning disabled clear jew dilemma
  02/27/16
...
Heady Rehab
  03/09/16
...
motley cuck
  03/15/16
...
translucent milk factory reset button
  03/15/16
...
Dark Domesticated Round Eye
  03/16/16
hosting error... LOL this is better than any snl sketch i...
Chartreuse roast beef
  02/24/16
...
Sepia Hospital
  02/24/16
...
Dark Domesticated Round Eye
  07/21/16
...
Ebony station
  02/24/16
...
translucent milk factory reset button
  02/27/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/02/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/04/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/09/16
yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets shou...
Vigorous goal in life
  03/09/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/15/16
...
Vivacious associate
  03/15/16
...
Concupiscible tanning salon
  03/15/16
truly 180 thread
citrine impertinent national
  03/15/16
It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Del...
Puce Hall
  03/16/16
March is very accurate.
Peach roommate
  03/16/16
...
Vibrant balding goyim
  03/23/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/23/16
http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh
titillating smoky depressive stage
  03/26/16
Lol,holy Fuck
aqua irate philosopher-king
  03/26/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/26/16
jesus. . .
Mildly Autistic Disturbing Sanctuary Potus
  03/28/16
...
Vibrant balding goyim
  03/28/16
...
infuriating razzle-dazzle casino candlestick maker
  03/28/16
...
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  08/12/16
...
razzmatazz site rigpig
  11/05/18
"What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Coul...
Puce Hall
  03/28/16
"Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethi...
Puce Hall
  03/29/16
lol
Marvelous parlour therapy
  03/29/16
"One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Wo...
Marvelous parlour therapy
  03/29/16
...
Puce Hall
  03/29/16
http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016
Puce Hall
  03/29/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballo...
Puce Hall
  04/01/16
"Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fiv...
Puce Hall
  04/04/16
interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost...
Marvelous parlour therapy
  04/15/16
...
irradiated chapel
  04/15/16
...
Puce Hall
  04/19/16
...
splenetic locale
  04/20/16
I love this thread.
Trip yapping hissy fit den
  04/20/16
...
Puce Hall
  04/24/16
...
Puce Hall
  04/25/16
...
Puce Hall
  04/26/16
...
Wonderful deep senate halford
  04/26/16
...
Blathering psychic
  04/30/16
A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines
electric dull marketing idea
  05/01/16
...
electric dull marketing idea
  11/07/16
...
Puce Hall
  05/02/16
...
Vibrant balding goyim
  05/02/16
The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fi...
Puce Hall
  05/03/16
holy shit
Dashing Amethyst Space Electric Furnace
  05/03/16
...
Curious Ocher Stead
  05/03/16
...
Puce Hall
  05/04/16
180
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  05/04/16
Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries h...
Puce Hall
  05/05/16
Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a h...
charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency
  05/05/16
LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opu...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  05/05/16
Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away.
Sepia Hospital
  05/05/16
This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewher...
Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter
  05/18/16
...
Puce Hall
  05/18/16
In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is...
Vivacious associate
  05/18/16
cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process...
Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter
  05/18/16
lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  05/29/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  06/20/16
Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning th...
Puce Hall
  06/29/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-...
Puce Hall
  07/14/16
...
Topaz genital piercing
  07/15/16
...
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  07/15/16
...
Puce Hall
  07/17/16
180
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  07/17/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-fli...
Puce Hall
  07/21/16
...
Puce Hall
  07/22/16
...
Pea-brained Crackhouse
  07/22/16
Wow jesua
galvanic federal set
  07/23/16
...
Puce Hall
  07/24/16
Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too.
Diverse fishy corn cake
  07/25/16
amazing how accurate this is
Marvelous parlour therapy
  07/25/16
Wish I could profit off this gift.
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  07/27/16
...
Puce Hall
  08/05/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-sh...
Puce Hall
  08/09/16
THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up ...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  08/12/16
holy shit did u edit
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  08/12/16
I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts.
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  08/12/16
LOL if true. I believe you, bro.
aromatic state
  08/12/16
THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is Fa...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  08/30/16
180 i want 2 believe
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  08/30/16
lol
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  09/06/16
Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyei...
Puce Hall
  09/13/16
ho lee fuk this is getting good
Marvelous parlour therapy
  09/14/16
Wow. Nailed July, August and early September
Lilac effete fortuitous meteor
  09/14/16
September 15, 2016 "How Trump Could Win The White Ho...
vermilion pervert stage
  09/15/16
September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don...
Silver exhilarant becky university
  09/15/16
god this is good
180 stubborn church boistinker
  09/15/16
XO never not on point
Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location
  09/15/16
...
chest-beating quadroon
  09/15/16
...
Wild Razzle Generalized Bond
  09/19/16
The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver.
Wild Razzle Generalized Bond
  09/19/16
let's not cross the swords
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  09/27/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  09/24/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-w...
Puce Hall
  09/27/16
...
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  09/27/16
This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO hi...
Peach roommate
  09/27/16
...
offensive cuckold ceo
  10/08/16
...
alcoholic beta center
  07/29/24
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-...
Marvelous parlour therapy
  09/28/16
...
Lilac effete fortuitous meteor
  09/28/16
180
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  09/28/16
This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting...
Trip yapping hissy fit den
  09/28/16
...
irradiated chapel
  09/28/16
...
twisted lodge place of business
  10/08/16
hey, this weekend wasnt in the script
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  10/09/16
Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere
cerebral tantric twinkling uncleanness theatre
  10/09/16
doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago i...
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  10/09/16
half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday
brass adventurous parlor idea he suggested
  10/09/16
nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta p...
Marvelous parlour therapy
  10/10/16
close enough.
Diverse fishy corn cake
  10/30/16
Almost there
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  11/01/16
...
Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location
  11/01/16
...
tan laughsome queen of the night
  11/02/16
...
disrespectful athletic conference
  11/02/16
prob the last time we can bump this
Marvelous parlour therapy
  11/07/16
You say that but.....
Sooty Floppy Market Immigrant
  11/08/16
true, the shitlibs can bump all they like
Marvelous parlour therapy
  11/08/16
ty for your sympathy bump.
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/08/16
ho lee fuk
Marvelous parlour therapy
  11/08/16
...
spruce contagious dragon field
  11/08/16
Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump LJ...
Chestnut unhinged nowag
  11/08/16
...
odious indian lodge
  11/08/16
...
Wild Razzle Generalized Bond
  11/08/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/08/16
...
magical box office affirmative action
  11/09/16
...
vermilion pervert stage
  11/09/16
...
plum boyish library hominid
  11/09/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/09/16
GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME
Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location
  11/09/16
...
magical box office affirmative action
  11/09/16
it really deserves national attention
Diverse fishy corn cake
  11/09/16
...
charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency
  11/09/16
...
Shimmering stimulating corner old irish cottage
  12/03/16
...
aphrodisiac party of the first part
  12/07/16
...
Brindle nudist puppy
  12/17/16
...
buff hunting ground azn
  10/11/24
...
At-the-ready school cafeteria
  11/09/16
Historic.
Arousing Vengeful Pisswyrm Pit
  11/09/16
...
Lavender really tough guy legal warrant
  11/09/16
180 The anti-Rudolph.
thriller temple
  11/09/16
...
Shimmering stimulating corner old irish cottage
  11/09/16
...
Scarlet excitant pozpig lay
  11/09/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/09/16
this cannot be bumped enough.
Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter
  11/09/16
...
Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess
  11/09/16
...
stirring startled scourge upon the earth kitchen
  11/09/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/09/16
...
lime personal credit line property
  11/09/16
...
Bistre french chef mediation
  11/09/16
November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the pol...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/09/16
you're fucking nostradamus
beady-eyed house selfie
  11/09/16
...
Fear-inspiring idiot friendly grandma
  11/10/16
Here we go...
transparent exciting garrison
  11/10/16
bumped
180 stubborn church boistinker
  11/10/16
...
Buck-toothed purple range
  11/10/16
sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/10/16
ROFL
Marvelous parlour therapy
  11/10/16
...
cracking cyan cruise ship travel guidebook
  11/10/16
...
Wild Razzle Generalized Bond
  11/14/16
They're all heads attached to the same (((monster)))
hairraiser cerise death wish
  11/14/16
Extraordinary prescience itt
Navy degenerate people who are hurt
  12/04/16
...
Brindle nudist puppy
  12/17/16
...
buff hunting ground azn
  10/11/24
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/25/16
...
bateful useless brakes plaza
  12/03/16
GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK!
brass adventurous parlor idea he suggested
  12/04/16
https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg
pontificating spot alpha
  12/07/16
...
180 stubborn church boistinker
  12/07/16
...
bateful useless brakes plaza
  12/07/16
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  01/02/17
October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predicto...
crawly fuchsia menage
  01/02/17
ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO.
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  01/02/17
ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump also a classic
crawly fuchsia menage
  01/02/17
...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  03/03/20
truly magnificent
180 stubborn church boistinker
  01/02/17
...
Vibrant balding goyim
  01/16/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
crawly fuchsia menage
  01/20/17
...
Puce Hall
  01/20/17
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-bl...
crawly fuchsia menage
  01/23/17
TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of t...
twisted lodge place of business
  01/23/17
It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the ...
crawly fuchsia menage
  01/23/17
I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that...
embarrassed to the bone regret
  01/23/17
it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it ...
twisted lodge place of business
  01/23/17
The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was c...
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  01/23/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-a...
crawly fuchsia menage
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misl...
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-supe...
crawly fuchsia menage
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-di...
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always...
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probab...
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...
Puce Hall
  05/03/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probabi...
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this seriously needs mainstream coverage
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One of the greatest things made on this great bort
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...
razzmatazz site rigpig
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...
Puce Hall
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868
Puce Hall
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...
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What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? http...
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump...
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180 stubborn church boistinker
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Puce Hall
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...
Vibrant balding goyim
  07/19/18
...
chest-beating quadroon
  09/20/18
The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And...
Puce Hall
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It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true
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  10/06/18
lol 180
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  11/03/20
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Puce Hall
  03/22/22
...
  03/23/22
...
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  03/23/22
180 and prescient
  03/23/22
...
Puce Hall
  07/25/22
A classic
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  07/25/22
...
Puce Hall
  10/23/22
Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection htt...
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  11/16/22
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168
crystalline medicated public bath mexican
  04/25/23
why was disney employing this guy anyways
Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter
  04/25/23
...
shitlib
  04/29/23
FOCK! This still hurts to read
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  05/28/23
...
Puce Hall
  02/22/24
...
shitlib
  02/23/24
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign...
Puce Hall
  05/23/24
...
Puce Hall
  08/26/24
...
shitlib
  09/13/24
One of the GOAT threads of all time
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  09/13/24
...
shitlib
  10/18/24
...
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  10/11/24
...
Puce Hall
  11/06/24
538 is being shut down. This post is now complete.
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  03/04/25
https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46
charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency
  03/04/25
Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn *fa...
chest-beating quadroon
  03/04/25
The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peace...
buff hunting ground azn
  03/04/25
He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare...
avocado high-end
  03/04/25
...
Geriatric sweet tailpipe
  03/05/25
...
Puce Hall
  03/07/25
538 is now 404
disgusting bronze jap
  03/07/25
"How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost...
Puce Hall
  03/08/25
Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how muc...
chocolate weed whacker private investor
  03/08/25
Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything.
Puce Hall
  03/08/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan"

December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?"

December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem"

January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most"

January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out"

January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One"

January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem"

February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory"

February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire"

February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."

February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"

February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow"

February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination"

February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma"

February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast"

March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever"

March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump"

April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party"

April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?"

May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade"

May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like"

June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention"

July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan"

August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting"

August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984"

August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why."

September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"

September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton"

September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom"

October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"

October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think"

October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority"

November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won"

November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey

January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351701)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: Turquoise glittery bawdyhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker

another bump

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30631018)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM
Author: costumed patrolman whorehouse

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144195)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM
Author: Chrome base



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284612)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM
Author: slate forum

"October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090197)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM
Author: Overrated coldplay fan



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351706)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM
Author: infuriating razzle-dazzle casino candlestick maker

1800000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351728)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM
Author: translucent milk factory reset button

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351742)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM
Author: beady-eyed house selfie

Fantastic work ITT

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351744)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM
Author: Talented macaca



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384172)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM
Author: swashbuckling mahogany voyeur

FUCK | THIS | KIKE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351749)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM
Author: Peach roommate

Poasting in a historic thread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM
Author: Canary misanthropic background story abode

Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.

Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM
Author: Out-of-control heaven boltzmann



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM
Author: ruddy turdskin

Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM
Author: bespoke office organic girlfriend

Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM
Author: big impressive area doctorate

Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM

Author: TannerBoyle

Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.

Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519054)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM
Author: seedy telephone tank



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854764)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359811)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM
Author: lake fluffy theater



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359818)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM
Author: Supple school kitty

180 million

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359849)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM
Author: Out-of-control heaven boltzmann

November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359926)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM
Author: mind-boggling carnelian address



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364617)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park

Don't edit loser

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677834)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM
Author: aphrodisiac party of the first part



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866880)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364607)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM
Author: Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364621)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM
Author: Arrogant cream hell cuckoldry

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364630)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM
Author: provocative cocky reading party home

March 9

THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN

March 10

THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN

March 11

THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP

March 12

THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE

March 13

THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS

March 14

THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON

March 18

BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL

He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers

March 19

BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS

March 20

NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS

March 21

THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU

March 22

HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364829)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM
Author: bright locus masturbator



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384155)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM
Author: Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth

1 fuckin' 80

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429271)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM
Author: Lilac effete fortuitous meteor



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364847)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM
Author: Amber elastic band

lol, 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364873)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM
Author: titillating smoky depressive stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364887)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM
Author: charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364890)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM
Author: Histrionic brunch new version

Well done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364896)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM
Author: Gaped multi-colored business firm

Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM
Author: Peach roommate

OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM
Author: Peach roommate

And today's:

"The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29391511)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM
Author: Heady Rehab

190

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM
Author: Dark Domesticated Round Eye

fuck u for making me laugh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383961)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM
Author: White Filthy Dysfunction

I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM
Author: disrespectful athletic conference

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM
Author: gay feces

February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."

February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384191)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM
Author: Coral partner

You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

Trump odds, August 2015:

Silver: 2%

Miller: 0%

Enten: -10%

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384225)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM
Author: Mildly Autistic Disturbing Sanctuary Potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525662)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park

Can't wait to bump this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677869)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM
Author: Brindle nudist puppy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165246)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM
Author: Vivacious associate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504262)



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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172544)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846325)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM
Author: Comical Orchestra Pit Trump Supporter

Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851781)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Bbw Piazza



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167037)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: internet-worthy racy principal's office

This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384232)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM
Author: Jet passionate shrine

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392396)



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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM
Author: bat shit crazy big-titted ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392414)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM
Author: mint sadistic codepig

Incredible

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392427)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Trump Boom or Trump Bubble?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29396453)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM
Author: Puce Hall

Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29398191)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM
Author: Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM
Author: Fear-inspiring idiot friendly grandma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29428691)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM
Author: Puce Hall

"Trump has some weird chinks in his armor"

http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429040)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM
Author: Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth

1 fuckin' 80

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM
Author: Puce Hall

"micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29485187)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM
Author: Puce Hall

One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.

But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29485191)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM
Author: Puce Hall

This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29518987)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM
Author: big impressive area doctorate

flawless OP. uninflated 180.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

ty for all the updates itt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park

Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM
Author: Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home

From Silver's Twitter:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531428)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM
Author: Vigorous goal in life

1800000000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531444)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM
Author: awkward step-uncle's house



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531475)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM
Author: Appetizing native juggernaut

An historic poast

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM
Author: Sickened fiercely-loyal karate

180 trillion

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM
Author: Appetizing native juggernaut

I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys

http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532843)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM
Author: Appetizing native juggernaut

Bump to make sure my friends saw this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29535993)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM
Author: Sickened fiercely-loyal karate

No bias there right? What a shitbird.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532829)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM
Author: Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29546163)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM
Author: Puce Hall

“HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.

Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.

These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551251)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

180 if not copy paste

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM
Author: Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM
Author: Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM
Author: Maize Spectacular Ticket Booth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29632610)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM
Author: Zippy Haunted Graveyard Nursing Home

looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/

In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:

His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there.

There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states.

Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1

But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.

I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.

Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.

Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.

An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?

I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.

Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.

Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.

But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:

Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand.

Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race.

If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire.

Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3

So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.

These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.

Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29649247)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677719)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM
Author: transparent exciting garrison

180000000000000000000000000000000000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677863)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park

You're a democratic, remember?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677913)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM
Author: transparent exciting garrison

No way! 100% TRUMPMO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791782)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

(2-time shitbama voter)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345881)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162047)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM
Author: flesh harsh church building



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29708433)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727124)



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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM
Author: odious indian lodge



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727197)



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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29732588)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29771453)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM
Author: Vigorous goal in life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791735)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM
Author: crusty claret resort



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791763)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877406)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM
Author: cracking cyan cruise ship travel guidebook

OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877434)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM
Author: Vivacious associate

PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903568)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM
Author: sexy institution pocket flask

The OP is XO at its peak brilliance.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903615)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM
Author: learning disabled clear jew dilemma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931652)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM
Author: Heady Rehab



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015868)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM
Author: motley cuck



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066562)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM
Author: translucent milk factory reset button



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066681)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM
Author: Dark Domesticated Round Eye



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070592)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM
Author: Chartreuse roast beef

hosting error... LOL

this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903628)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM
Author: Sepia Hospital



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904083)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM
Author: Dark Domesticated Round Eye



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987707)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM
Author: Ebony station



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904074)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM
Author: translucent milk factory reset button



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931637)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29960115)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29976826)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015799)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM
Author: Vigorous goal in life

yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015891)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065629)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM
Author: Vivacious associate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065970)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM
Author: Concupiscible tanning salon



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066291)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM
Author: citrine impertinent national

truly 180 thread

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066549)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM
Author: Puce Hall

It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070566)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM
Author: Peach roommate

March is very accurate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070601)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119676)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119337)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM
Author: titillating smoky depressive stage

http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140474)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM
Author: aqua irate philosopher-king

Lol,holy Fuck

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140513)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144174)



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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: Mildly Autistic Disturbing Sanctuary Potus

jesus. . .

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151942)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151965)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM
Author: infuriating razzle-dazzle casino candlestick maker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151975)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172540)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162050)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM
Author: Puce Hall

"What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-two-front-war-to-deny-trump-the-nomination-could-look-like/

"Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151872)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM
Author: Puce Hall

"Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160651)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160689)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

"One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161569)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161654)



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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: Puce Hall

http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086)



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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235)



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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM
Author: Puce Hall

"Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30201806)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:

http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686

Articles by Karl Rove

Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing

April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.

Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.

The Not-Trump GOP Rises

April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.

The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.

An Ugly General Election Takes Shape

March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.

Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.

Don’t Coddle Donald Trump

March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.

A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.

How Trump Can Raise His Game

March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.

A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.

The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won

March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.

He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.

A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners

March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.

Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’

The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet

February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.

There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate.

James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’

Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War

February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.

There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims

GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump

February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.

The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.

How Trump Blew an Easy Win

February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.

He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.

Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity

January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.

The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?

Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk

January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.

Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.

The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans

January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.

At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.

My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions

January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.

Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach

December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.

Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.

Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee

December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.

He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.

The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails

December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.

A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279040)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM
Author: irradiated chapel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279158)



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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30307876)



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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM
Author: splenetic locale



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310760)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM
Author: Trip yapping hissy fit den

I love this thread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310807)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30335375)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30346848)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353572)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM
Author: Wonderful deep senate halford



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353587)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM
Author: Blathering psychic



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30378951)



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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM
Author: electric dull marketing idea
Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines

JUN 16, 2015

Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart

JUL 16, 2015

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

JUL 29, 2015

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

AUG 7, 2015

Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News

AUG 7, 2015

Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.

AUG 11, 2015

Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination

AUG 14, 2015

Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record

AUG 31, 2015

A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump

SEP 2, 2015

Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’

SEP 8, 2015

If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too

SEP 17, 2015

We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate

SEP 24, 2015

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

OCT 20, 2015

Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible

OCT 26, 2015

Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?

NOV 4, 2015

The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump

NOV 23, 2015

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

DEC 1, 2015

The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate

DEC 2, 2015

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!

DEC 4, 2015

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

DEC 15, 2015

Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?

DEC 17, 2015

Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing

JAN 18, 2016

Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters

JAN 19, 2016

Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz

JAN 19, 2016

Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0

JAN 21, 2016

One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump

JAN 26, 2016

Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?

JAN 27, 2016

Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate

JAN 31, 2016

Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep

FEB 2, 2016

Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

FEB 3, 2016

Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much

FEB 4, 2016

Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild

FEB 5, 2016

Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google

FEB 9, 2016

Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire

FEB 10, 2016

John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump

FEB 17, 2016

Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?

FEB 18, 2016

The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump

FEB 21, 2016

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

FEB 22, 2016

Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith

FEB 23, 2016

Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout

FEB 24, 2016

Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz

FEB 24, 2016

Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump

FEB 26, 2016

Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump

MAR 1, 2016

Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump

MAR 2, 2016

Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?

MAR 2, 2016

Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination

MAR 3, 2016

Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices

MAR 4, 2016

Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination

MAR 7, 2016

Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules

MAR 7, 2016

Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump

MAR 8, 2016

Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?

MAR 10, 2016

Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump

MAR 11, 2016

Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable

MAR 15, 2016

Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late

MAR 16, 2016

It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates

MAR 16, 2016

Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates

MAR 21, 2016

Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?

MAR 22, 2016

The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates

MAR 23, 2016

Why Donald Trump?

MAR 23, 2016

How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump

MAR 25, 2016

Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November

MAR 25, 2016

What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like

MAR 29, 2016

Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan

MAR 29, 2016

One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women

MAR 30, 2016

How Trump Hacked The Media

MAR 31, 2016

Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump

APR 1, 2016

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

APR 5, 2016

The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump

APR 7, 2016

Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote

APR 8, 2016

Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling

APR 11, 2016

Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era

APR 11, 2016

Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado

APR 11, 2016

Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?

APR 14, 2016

Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him

APR 18, 2016

New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates

APR 23, 2016

Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working

APR 25, 2016

Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast

APR 25, 2016

Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?

APR 27, 2016

It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30385550)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM
Author: electric dull marketing idea



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30392947)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30393360)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM
Author: Puce Hall

The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398673)



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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM
Author: Dashing Amethyst Space Electric Furnace

holy shit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398720)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM
Author: Curious Ocher Stead



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30402170)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405223)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405346)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM
Author: Puce Hall

Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412509)



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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM
Author: charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency

Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412976)



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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412844)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM
Author: Sepia Hospital

Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412994)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter

This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223)



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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Vivacious associate

In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268)



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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM
Author: Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter

cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085)



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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.

“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.

Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.

“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”

“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.

Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.

“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30817368)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM
Author: Topaz genital piercing



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM
Author: Pea-brained Crackhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM
Author: galvanic federal set

Wow jesua

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM
Author: Diverse fishy corn cake

Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

amazing how accurate this is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

Wish I could profit off this gift.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/

Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31146587)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984"

NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like"

"That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172533)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

holy shit did u edit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM
Author: aromatic state

LOL if true. I believe you, bro.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why."

NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31298094)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

180

i want 2 believe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31298330)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31399652)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

ho lee fuk this is getting good

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM
Author: Lilac effete fortuitous meteor

Wow. Nailed July, August and early September

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM
Author: vermilion pervert stage

September 15, 2016

"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/

RUH ROH LIBS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31412268)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM
Author: Silver exhilarant becky university

September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"

Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:

Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless

http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413892)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker

god this is good

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location

XO never not on point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM
Author: chest-beating quadroon



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM
Author: Wild Razzle Generalized Bond



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM
Author: Wild Razzle Generalized Bond

The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

let's not cross the swords

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM
Author: Puce Hall

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: Peach roommate

This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM
Author: offensive cuckold ceo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM
Author: alcoholic beta center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47906632)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/

vs

September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511634)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM
Author: Lilac effete fortuitous meteor



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM
Author: Trip yapping hissy fit den

This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM
Author: irradiated chapel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM
Author: twisted lodge place of business



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

hey, this weekend wasnt in the script

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM
Author: cerebral tantric twinkling uncleanness theatre

Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM
Author: brass adventurous parlor idea he suggested

half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:

It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.

These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/

meanwhile:

Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate

As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31606849)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM
Author: Diverse fishy corn cake

close enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay

Almost there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM
Author: tan laughsome queen of the night



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM
Author: disrespectful athletic conference



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

prob the last time we can bump this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM
Author: Sooty Floppy Market Immigrant

You say that but.....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

true, the shitlibs can bump all they like

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

ty for your sympathy bump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

ho lee fuk

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM
Author: spruce contagious dragon field



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842891)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM
Author: Chestnut unhinged nowag

Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump

LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842921)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM
Author: odious indian lodge



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31843660)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM
Author: Wild Razzle Generalized Bond



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844292)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM
Author: magical box office affirmative action



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846281)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM
Author: vermilion pervert stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM
Author: plum boyish library hominid



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846448)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848552)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location

GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM
Author: magical box office affirmative action



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848693)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM
Author: Diverse fishy corn cake

it really deserves national attention

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848755)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM
Author: charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848775)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM
Author: Shimmering stimulating corner old irish cottage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044462)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM
Author: aphrodisiac party of the first part



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM
Author: Brindle nudist puppy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM
Author: buff hunting ground azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187313)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM
Author: At-the-ready school cafeteria



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848725)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM
Author: Arousing Vengeful Pisswyrm Pit

Historic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849301)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM
Author: Lavender really tough guy legal warrant



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM
Author: thriller temple

180

The anti-Rudolph.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849573)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM
Author: Shimmering stimulating corner old irish cottage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM
Author: Scarlet excitant pozpig lay



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM
Author: Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter

this cannot be bumped enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM
Author: stirring startled scourge upon the earth kitchen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM
Author: lime personal credit line property



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863082)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM
Author: Bistre french chef mediation



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863273)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM
Author: beady-eyed house selfie

you're fucking nostradamus

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM
Author: Fear-inspiring idiot friendly grandma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866924)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM
Author: transparent exciting garrison

Here we go...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker

bumped

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM
Author: Buck-toothed purple range



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31867005)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months"

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868225)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM
Author: Marvelous parlour therapy

ROFL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM
Author: cracking cyan cruise ship travel guidebook



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM
Author: Wild Razzle Generalized Bond



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM
Author: hairraiser cerise death wish

They're all heads attached to the same (((monster)))

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM
Author: Navy degenerate people who are hurt

Extraordinary prescience itt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM
Author: Brindle nudist puppy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM
Author: buff hunting ground azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187317)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM
Author: bateful useless brakes plaza



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM
Author: brass adventurous parlor idea he suggested

GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM
Author: pontificating spot alpha

https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM
Author: bateful useless brakes plaza



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM

Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284625)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump

also a classic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284647)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39686962)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker

truly magnificent

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441205)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM
Author: twisted lodge place of business

TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM
Author: embarrassed to the bone regret

I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).

What are those assholes at Princeton up to?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441255)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM
Author: twisted lodge place of business

it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping

it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)

it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441302)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776)



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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310)



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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883)



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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM
Author: crawly fuchsia menage

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM
Author: translucent milk factory reset button

this seriously needs mainstream coverage

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location

One of the greatest things made on this great bort

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887)



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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM
Author: Puce Hall

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991)



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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191)



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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33958232)



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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102)



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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM
Author:  headpube pistol



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138)



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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930)



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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM
Author: Garnet stag film

credit where it's massively due

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM
Author:  Olive Newt Gas Station



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123)



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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM
Author: Bull headed theater stage knife



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM
Author: Brilliant Fanboi Point



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM
Author: Charcoal Toilet Seat Jewess

Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM
Author: Puce Hall

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM
Author: chest-beating quadroon



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM
Author: Puce Hall

The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/

SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" "

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36889953)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: infuriating razzle-dazzle casino candlestick maker

It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

lol 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM
Author: Silver exhilarant becky university

Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM
Author: 180 stubborn church boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM
Author: Puce Hall

What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM
Author: 



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345)



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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170

Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37923789)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM
Author: Mustard lascivious fat ankles trailer park

There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM
Author: 



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39135638)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583415)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583624)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849854)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM
Author:  twinkling



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849877)



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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM
Author: Topaz genital piercing



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39938878)



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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40097972)



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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/

In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40199746)



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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM
Author: Topaz genital piercing



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40354730)



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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM
Author: iridescent



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40355911)



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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM
Author: Topaz genital piercing



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896459)



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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM
Author: Cruel-hearted azure national security agency location



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896523)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM
Author: Overrated coldplay fan

Lmao never forget

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896526)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM
Author: Flickering Preventive Strike Community Account



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40908695)



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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM
Author:  shitlib



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40977795)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM
Author: 



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41079968)



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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41088157)



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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM
Author:  sapphire coffee pot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166967)



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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM
Author: Shimmering stimulating corner old irish cottage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166990)



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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Bbw Piazza



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167039)



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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Bbw Piazza

https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167053)



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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM
Author: drab rigor



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203011)



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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41200021)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM
Author: razzmatazz site rigpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41202581)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM
Author: 



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41222868)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM
Author: Vibrant balding goyim



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41261120)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44196611)



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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM
Author: 



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202968)



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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM
Author:  black water buffalo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202984)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM
Author: 

180 and prescient

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203017)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911871)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM
Author: Overrated coldplay fan

A classic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911874)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45378008)



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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45500653)



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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM
Author: crystalline medicated public bath mexican

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237455)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM
Author: Orchid fragrant brethren faggot firefighter

why was disney employing this guy anyways

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237460)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM
Author:  shitlib



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46252623)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM
Author: alcoholic beta center

FOCK!

This still hurts to read

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46365046)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47428670)



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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM
Author:  shitlib



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47430198)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM
Author: Puce Hall

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope

As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”

I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.

Wait, wait—why?

Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47686778)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48010724)



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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM
Author:  shitlib



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087201)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM
Author: Overrated coldplay fan

One of the GOAT threads of all time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087224)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM
Author:  shitlib



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48211967)



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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM
Author: buff hunting ground azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187302)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48296972)



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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM
Author: charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency

538 is being shut down. This post is now complete.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715841)



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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM
Author: charismatic adulterous meetinghouse international law enforcement agency

https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715847)



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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM
Author: chest-beating quadroon

Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn

*facts cum*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715850)



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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM
Author: buff hunting ground azn

The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715863)



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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM
Author: avocado high-end

He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715869)



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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM
Author: Geriatric sweet tailpipe



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48716330)



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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM
Author: Puce Hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724299)



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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM
Author: disgusting bronze jap

538 is now 404

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724306)



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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM
Author: Puce Hall

"How Trump Killed 538"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727160)



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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM
Author: chocolate weed whacker private investor

Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727216)



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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM
Author: Puce Hall

Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727802)