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DDC's "Conviction Buy" stock thread
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Date: May 18th, 2017 8:35 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit CBL - trading at $7.50ish. I promise you this will be mid 8's, low 9's by the next ex dividend date when the shorts get out to avoid the dividend. Majorly oversold. I've never seen a hard asset REIT paying 14%+ with this high of dividend coverage. Right now it's probably priced below liquidation value. I added 2000 shares at $7.19 yesterday but the stock likely capitulated and bottomed.
SKT - if you want a bit less risk on a long term hold, this is a good bargain right now |
Date: May 18th, 2017 8:36 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook Just buy bitcoin dummy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33339719) |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 8:42 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces what's going on with the electricity lawsuit vs CBL? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33339765) |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 8:52 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit It's not a big deal. Even assuming the absolute worst case scenario, it's not enough to hurt them much.
Year over year revenue is down primarily because they're selling some of their shittier malls, not because same mall metrics are getting worse. The market saw them guide upcoming revenue down at the same time as the media rhetoric over dying malls, resulting in a bloodbath that isn't really based in reality.
The main risk is cotenant clauses - when an anchor store goes down smaller tenants can leave. But they have time to cure and replace them, which they've had success doing. Usually the new store is better than a shitstore like Sears that left.
They are uniquely positioned in that they often have the sole mall in shit-towns that can't support another one so it's like a competitive moat. I live near one of these (CBL owned) and it's packed with proles.
CBL has probably the best valuation compared to its financial metrics of any mall REIT. If you want a mediocre company at a fantastic price get CBL, if you want a good company at a good price get SKT. |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 8:57 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces I just bought small stakes in CBL and also WPG, which has similar dividend returns and tenants (although WPG is more exposed to SPS anchors like sears and penney).
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Date: May 18th, 2017 9:25 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Yeah WPG is the most similar to CBL. I have heard anecdotally that its malls are slightly nicer, but CBL is more discounted if you look at the financial metrics. The comments on seekingalpha are the best place to keep tabs and learn. There is a good article that just went up looking at all the mall REITs from someone who has been bearish on them . . . even he thinks they are approaching oversold territory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33340118) |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 9:30 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces I read a bunch of SA articles after reading this thread, led me to WPG (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33340161) |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 10:05 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit If you're thinking short term I would target the run-up to ex dividend as a trading date. There was a pop in short interest and I can't imagine these new hands staying in and paying the dividend. Potential short squeeze.
I am in it for the mid-range. I believe the stock is worth $11-$12 based on the fundamentals. I have 3300 shares total right now that I'll start disposing of when it gets into the upper 9s. Between the high dividend and high premiums it's a good covered call candidate. . . only problem is that the strikes are too far apart (7.50 and 10.00) so you can't always do it. But I'll be disposing of my shares by letting them get called away in blocks. If the price is flat or down then the call premium+dividend is a good annualized return, and if the price goes up then you dispose of the stock at a price you were happy to get, plus your call premium.
The best time to sell is around 60 days from expiration, with the ex dividend right in the middle of that period. That way if some faggot wants to early-exercise his options to steal the dividend, he's going to have to throw away his time premium. |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 10:14 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces Interesting strategy. I bought based on the prolonged dividend returns each has had - if the companies keep holding the line the ROI is 13%+ annually - and the general feeling of being oversold. I'm looking at Petrobras for the same reason, although it's hard to know how deep the corruption probes are going there and I don't like their leverage.
You're convinced it will remain in a fairly narrow price band? |
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Date: May 18th, 2017 8:42 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook Nvda
Veev
Momo
Nktr
Ttd |
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Date: May 25th, 2017 5:57 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook Momo had blowout results yet my asshole is getting gaped. FUCK WALL STREET (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33395260) |
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Date: June 12th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33537215) |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 3:06 PM Author: exciting self-absorbed tanning salon i'm a Momomo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33860466) |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 3:06 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook hell yah mfer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33860468) |
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Date: May 19th, 2017 12:28 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Up 6% today.
Glad to give all of my XO friends free money |
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Date: May 19th, 2017 1:14 PM Author: Milky domesticated set Thank you, friend. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33344570) |
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Date: May 24th, 2017 4:31 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Steady uptrend so far since this pick. I think if this goes above $8.20 or so, it could see a good bounce further as that would signal the end of the short term downtrend. Could happen when the dividend is confirmed in the next week or two. The overall trend combined with shorts covering to avoid the dividend could give it a nice pop within the next 6 weeks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33386116) |
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Date: May 24th, 2017 4:33 PM Author: Bipolar public bath death wish no one is buying that peasant stock. far better GAINS to be made in crypto rn, lil breh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33386136) |
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Date: May 24th, 2017 4:35 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Hard to put 401k in crypto. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33386155) |
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Date: May 25th, 2017 5:54 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Up again today, faggots. Lots of new comments on the seekingalpha articles talking about the stock "going to zero." The shorts are really starting to feel the pressure. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33395229) |
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Date: May 31st, 2017 11:42 AM Author: Milky domesticated set DDC, you still on the CBL train? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33436687) |
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Date: May 31st, 2017 11:43 AM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces i'm buying more today, more WPG as well
i also bought NNA the other day, which has been shitting the bed but pumps out dividends if it stays the course |
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Date: June 12th, 2017 2:34 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Today would not be a terrible day to take profits on part of your positions if you went in heavily at the bottom (7.20-ish). Still bullish overall but nothing wrong with reducing exposure and taking some risk off the table. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33536632) |
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Date: June 12th, 2017 2:40 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces Not as convinced of the $11-12 level you called last month? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33536687) |
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Date: June 12th, 2017 2:57 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit I think the overall thesis is being confirmed. Stock is still very cheap, but when I take a big position in something (I'm honestly WAY overexposed), I sell off some if it has a good gain in a short time period. I am still seeing a strong short squeeze possibility approaching ex dividend. I am still hodling because I am not going to be upset if a negative Sears announcement temporarily dips the price, but someone buying for a "trade" rather than an investment needs to stay on top of that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33536841) |
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Date: June 12th, 2017 3:47 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook nice call on CBL. how do you know the dividend is safe? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33537235) |
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Date: June 26th, 2017 1:01 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Welp, right on cue, CBL is having a nice little breakout right before the ex dividend (3/28/2017). Mall reits mostly all up today but CBL outperforming them. Shorts getting murdered. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33644535) |
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Date: June 27th, 2017 7:31 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook werent you lolling at us eth holdcucks predicting a long, 2013-2015 btc like cavern of misery just yday tho? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33656097) |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 3:41 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit You mean that cavern of misery that happened exactly when I called it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33774493) |
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Date: June 27th, 2017 12:58 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit lmao, you fucks could have earned what works out to a 220% annualized return by owning a HARD ASSET REIT, in addition to collecting a 15% dividend yield on cost. Instead you bought fake internet money.
Every call made in this thread was 100% correct. You could have even madea bit of extra money selling when I suggested and buying back in at a lower price. Ex dividend tomorrow, shorts are getting RAPED AGAIN today. |
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Date: June 27th, 2017 1:49 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces still worth holding? what's your current price target? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33653451) |
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Date: June 27th, 2017 7:29 PM Author: Milky domesticated set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33656072) |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 3:31 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Another big day for CBL. You could have bought in for around $7.20. Price is now passing $9.00 if you add in the dividend payout coming in a few days.
I should probably sell some off because I have about 30% of my portfolio in it and it's no doubt a risky stock, but I want to ride this horse a bit longer. I *need* it to get into the mid 9's so I can start selling 10-strike covered calls. I'm diamond dallas hard thinking about that. |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 3:34 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook u and exeunt should go into biz together (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33774446) |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 3:43 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces still holding CBL and WPG. market chatter seems to be turning bearish on CBL and bullish on WPG.
also holding AMD, which will bounce either way after earnings call |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 3:56 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Takes balls to hold amd going into earnings (depending on your basis I guess). If I were going in, it would be a contrarian post earnings trade due to all the dumb money in the stock (like Robin Hood shitlennials). Whatever the reaction to earnings is, it will be more extreme than warranted. Had my finger on the button at $10 last time but thought it it would keep going down for a couple more days and missed out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33774588) |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 4:03 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/amd
hows the zcash mining going |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 4:20 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces i bought one chunk in the low 10s and then got greedy and bought another in the 12s. average cost basis is 11.75. i think the major revenue drivers should land in Q3/Q4 and am willing to hold it through there. will probably buy more if it shits real hard after Q2 earnings or sell if it pops up and rebuy on the deflation afterwards. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33774752) |
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Date: July 14th, 2017 4:35 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit The "priced for perfection" narrative is what makes me gun-shy. Hate to buy it, have revenue drivers hit, then have it go down anyway because the market had something speculative priced in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33774851) |
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Date: July 20th, 2017 1:17 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit OPTION ALERT: there is MASSIVE open interest on September $10 calls and an equal amount on the put side (split between 7.50 and $10 strikes). Not sure what to make of this.
I hope to be able to start selling options soon. The best day to sell is one where CBL is up 3% or more on minimal news (IE not earnings). It's a volatile stock so this happens. Those bounces often pull back later in the day or in the following days.
Right now September $10 calls are getting .20. October will be the better month to sell when it starts trading because of the ex dividend in late September. If I had to do something right now, it would be December at .35-.40. Not a bad premium for something that is effectively $1.35 out of the money after dividends, meaning that unless the stock goes up $1.70+ in six months it will be a winning trade.
I am hoping to ride this up to $9.50+ before I start selling calls. Will poast another update if premiums look especially juicy. WPG earnings are out in a week, will watch that closely.
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Date: July 25th, 2017 4:33 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces AMD: YNY (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33853157) |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 3:01 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit Wish I had kicked in $5k when it was at $10 in the bloodbath after last earnings. Also wish I had bought that $2k ETH at $130. Those were the two trades I was closest to making, but didnt because it would have been the last of my dry powder and I thought they might go just a little lower.
CBL is crushing it again today. Not sure what I'm going to do going into earnings. |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 3:03 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook tbqf yuge dump today but i imagine its just profit taking
my growth shitfolio is doing 180. have, inter alia, sq, nvda, edu (china stock), momo (china stock), anet, oled, veev. probably gonna D/C/A into dat BABA or buy on the next market correction. |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 4:16 PM Author: carnelian dashing lettuce feces yeah, profit taking.
i'm planning on holding AMD through Q3 or Q4 earnings; the GPU sales and Ryzen news will hopefully drive profits higher |
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Date: July 26th, 2017 3:05 PM Author: exciting self-absorbed tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33860461) |
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Date: July 27th, 2017 12:53 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit JFC, this stock is up another 5.6% today. Counting the dividend, annualized return between when I told you all to buy in and now is over 200%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33866999) |
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Date: July 27th, 2017 1:07 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook What nao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33867107) |
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Date: July 27th, 2017 1:23 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit I sold a little bit. I have about 4000 shares, which is a lot given the size of my accounts. I sold the 700 that were in my secondary account to rebalance a bit and so they wouldn't be stretched across two accounts when I sell covered calls. On the other 3300 I'm going to be looking for good premiums to sell on 10 strike covered calls for maybe half the position and leave the other half uncovered. Covered calls are my preferred way to rebalance a portfolio.
The stock is still cheap with more room to run, but it's not an "all in" call at this price. Just something good to have a decent position in as part of your balanced portfolio. |
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Date: July 27th, 2017 1:24 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook ljl. "balanthed porthfolio" he lisped. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33867248) |
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Date: August 4th, 2017 3:39 PM Author: Free-loading voyeur orchestra pit To be fair, the stock took a major hit literally THE DAY after I recommended a rebalance, and made that move myself. My calls have been pretty accurate.
Nice to see it make up a lot of lost ground today. I was worried about it getting hit for mediocre earnings but the report had no effect . . . moving in lockstep with WPG. Depending on valuations, I may start bouncing back and forth between them based on the trading thesis that whichever stock is closer to ex dividend is going to be the better short term performer. |
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Date: August 4th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: beady-eyed school cafeteria travel guidebook i made bank on ANET's earnings so i sold out of the market. want to take the weekend to where i am $$ wise in my IB acct and may start scaling back into positions next week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#33918902) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2017 11:33 AM Author: Milky domesticated set WTF happened?! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#34595625) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2017 11:37 AM Author: thriller boiling water It's a tough market, Retail REITs. One of those "feast or famine" kind of situations, that plus market sentiment and high debt loads can pressure the equity price (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3619020&forum_id=2#34595653) |