The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Trump probably will win
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:12 PM Author: lemon psychic base Reason: the outrage from the Floyd riots is gone and now we are at the negotiation and purging stage.
The Left will be increasingly strident all this summer and fall. Bari Weiss and Andrew Sullivan were purged. You will see more Democrats doing the defund police thing.
Democrats have seen themselves targeted like Amy Cooper was. Libs have been buying guns because of crime concerns.
If Biden weren't a corpse and we're 20 years younger he might have the energy to do it right. But his VP will run the show.
Look at the media and they are pushing Kamala Harris hard.
She sucks and is a horrendous human being. She is worse than Hillary Clinton in every single manner.
Biden picks Kamala and he loses. |
 |
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:13 PM Author: avocado bawdyhouse yarmulke Date: July 17th, 2020 9:12 PM Author: .,,....,,,,,,,,................
Reason: the outrage from the Floyd riots is gone and now we are at the negotiation and purging stage. The Left will be increasingly strident all this summer and fall. Bari Weiss and Andrew Sullivan were purged. You will see more Democrats doing the defund police thing.
Democrats have seen themselves targeted like Amy Cooper was. Libs have been buying guns because of crime concerns.
If Biden weren't a corpse and we're 20 years younger he might have the energy to do it right. But his VP will run the show.
Look at the media and they are pushing Kamala Harris hard.
She sucks and is a horrendous human being. She is worse than Hillary Clinton in every single manner.
Biden picks Kamala and he loses.
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:13 PM Author: avocado bawdyhouse yarmulke (moron) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624698) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:19 PM Author: vivacious fanboi abode Date: July 17th, 2020 9:13 PM Author: ""'""'''''""
(moron)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=#) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:20 PM Author: snowy sickened lodge Pencil dick, are you a virgin? Would you ever consider telling us more about your struggles with the pencil? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624726) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:30 PM Author: frum autistic corn cake personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624778) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:17 PM Author: excitant rehab The wild card is the lockdown. It is hurting Trump by slowing down the economy and by preventing him from doing mass rallies regularly. Due to the media bias and big tech censorship, Trump needs rallies to get his message out and to pump up his base. Biden doesn't need that since the media, corporations, big tech, are his de facto campaign surrogates. In fact Biden is better off hiding in his basement. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624716) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:26 PM Author: lemon psychic base It will be a high and low turnout election.
High in blue bastions.
Low everywhere else.
If Trump wins it will be an even more extreme electoral college victory |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:50 PM Author: excitant rehab This is a weird election. I can think of strong reasons for both why Trump will win and why he will lose. I go back and forth each day.
The polling is indeed nasty. Biden's RCP average lead is higher and more durable than Hillary's. And the lockdown and riots have been devastating to Trump's central argument on the economy. However, there are several data points that are underreported. First, the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden is even higher than it was in 2016. Second, Trump had crazy primary numbers for an incumbent while Biden failed to crack 70% in a number of key states even after everyone else dropped out. Third, Trump's favorables-unfavorables are better now than on election day 2016. Fourth, voters still trust Trump more than Biden on the economy.
I think the election may well hinge upon how voters feel about the progress relative to when the virus began. Usually incumbents are judged by whether the country is better off now than it was when they were first elected, but this is not a normal election.
In terms of specific states, I feel pretty good about Trump winning TX, GA, FL, NC, OH, IA, ME 02, and to a lesser extent WI. The 3 states that most worry me are PA, AZ, MI. If his Latino numbers hold up, NV will be in play. |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 6:57 AM Author: blue vigorous tanning salon Good state by state analysis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626261) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:29 AM Author: Light submissive travel guidebook FL is a problem in the polls (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626284) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:29 PM Author: rusted chapel mad-dog skullcap i dunno. kamala is not as bad as you think imho. if anything, she's biden's best option as he has painted himself in a corner. it has to be a woman. and now it has to be a woman of color. that leaves kamala standing. she's not a retard and will be able to present well in public and in a debate with pence will not be rattled.
for many people, the vp is really where its at since no one thinks much of biden. to biden's credit, he's not hated. so...there's that? |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:43 PM Author: snowy sickened lodge She’s really retarded, dude. They were going to hand her the nomination and she was so bad they had to drop that plan real quick (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624837) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:47 PM Author: avocado bawdyhouse yarmulke (homosexual male nurse) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624862) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:49 PM Author: snowy sickened lodge You’re a virgin with a really thin wiener (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624870) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:44 PM Author: razzle-dazzle gaping lol she's bad and Biden isn't a real candidate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624843) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:46 PM Author: lemon psychic base She's a total shrew. Does not have *any* biological children, all videos of her are her being snide with conservative white men. When she actually talks it is not smart at all. It is just a bunch of callouts to identity groups, just like HRC.
She doesn't come across as black even though she is technically black. Blacks won't care for her. Their turnout will be low. |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:48 PM Author: Supple brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624864) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:50 PM Author: rusted chapel mad-dog skullcap no children is a big red flag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624881) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:30 AM Author: Light submissive travel guidebook she has white step-children (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626287) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:53 PM Author: honey-headed hunting ground She’s not black to black people She’s annoying and black to white people |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 10:06 PM Author: lemon psychic base She's Hillary Clinton all over again but worse. To certain whites she is black, but to other whites...she is Mitt Romney from the HR department who fires you for saying "all lives matter". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624935) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:08 AM Author: shimmering institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626266) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:55 PM Author: Marvelous location toaster There’s always Susan Rice. Who concluded that Mike Flynn MUST be a Russian agent because he told her he thought China was a bigger problem for the United States than Russia. I’m praying it won’t be Rice. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624906) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:16 AM Author: odious shrine he should pick tulsi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626276) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2020 9:29 PM Author: Provocative international law enforcement agency mental disorder The biggest fag contest (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40624774) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:28 AM Author: Light submissive travel guidebook He might. The last two months of this campaign may be surreal in the craziness of it all.
One thing to remember is that even now, Trump is within a small margin of error in *every* state he needs except two - Florida and Wisconsin. Florida is more puzzling and more worrying. It was supposed to be mostly in the bag for Trump. Covid may have fucked him for good there.
In Wisco, the polls showed Trump down 6-10 pts in 2016 so I'm not as worried.
But we better see some FL tightening soon or it may be over.
I think there is also a significant, maybe 35% chance of a relative Biden landslide, with him winning GA, AZ and TX.
|
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 7:55 AM Author: Bat-shit-crazy corner fortuitous meteor Biden's current polling advantage is not within the margin of error. Trump needs something to change in order to win. He would not win if the election were held today. Potential catalysts include a really divisive VP pick and obvious senility from Biden at the debate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40626318) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 8:07 AM Author: Light submissive travel guidebook Trump needs to hope for
(1) Covid getting better, basically praying for it (2) stemming from 1, FOOTBALL being played this fall, hopefully on both weekend days, but at least on Sunday (3) bad hurricane hitting Florida to change the subject and allow him to show leadership (4) news hinting at an imminent vaccine
None of that guarantees him anything but all together give him a decent shot |
|
Date: July 21st, 2020 8:49 PM Author: blue vigorous tanning salon Lol, ok Chang. 3 is especially lolzy. But no one gaf about covid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40641946) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2020 8:02 AM Author: Arousing Sick Pit Pisswyrm lol at thinking that "BAri Weiss" or "Andrew Sullivan" are going to have any affect on this election whatsoever
not flame CharlesXII getting fired will have more effect on the election - by an order of magnitude - than Bari Weiss getting fired |
|
Date: July 21st, 2020 8:49 PM Author: blue vigorous tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4587158&forum_id=2#40641952) |