there is no fucking way russia attacks a nato country after this. it's unlikely they will be able to take and hold ukraine, let alone have the military might to go against the entire west. the best case scenario is that they take and hold ukraine and lick their wounds. MAYBE they're thinking about moldova or belarus in 2030. ljl at russia proceeding beyond ukraine within the next decade.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183336)

Where are your kids right now, Karen?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185129)

Wow "a lot of unrest", that sounds like it could get ugly and dangerous and spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Belarusian government! So when will Lukashenko be deposed?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185108)

You've been injecting yourself into box drama. Lol @ u.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184573)

Putin said, "I'll have steak."

The server said, "What about the vegetable?"

Putin replied, "He'll have steak, too."

(I have a friend from Belarus. She said that this is a popular joke there.)

You're a great poaster, but yeah, the idea that Russia will ever invade Belarus is laughable. Lukashenko/Belarus have been Russia's bitch ever since the USSR collapsed, and everyone knows that. Basically the entire Belarusian economy is based on buying Russian oil at below-market rates and then refining it. Russia is willing to subsidize the Belarusian economy as long as they remain a loyal client state. If Russia stops giving them cheap oil, their entire economy will collapse, and everyone knows that. There is no need to launch a military invasion when you already hold a country by their economic balls.

The only possible way that Russia invades Belarus is if Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by a pro-Western leader. That seems extremely unlikely. Lukashenko has generally been an effective dictator. Even though he isn't well-liked by the populace, there isn't much enthusiasm to overthrow him because everyone knows that any leader who isn't a Russian puppet will cause the oil spigots to be turned off, which will result in an economic collapse. Plus people see what happened to Ukraine when they stood up to Russia. So most likely Lukashenko stays in power. And there is no reason to invade Belarus as long as Lukashenko's mouth is attached to Putin's dick.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44186735)

you need to stop uncritically consuming media

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184536)

Putin has little interest in expansion beyond Ukraine. Ukraine is a unique case. Ukraine is substantially greater than all of the other countries in question, both in size and economy. Poland, a significant NATO member which routinely hosts US troops, is on the other side of Ukraine. Putin considers a geographical buffer between NATO and Russia to be critical, particularly given that Latvia and Estonia are already members (and Russia wasn't able to challenge that effectively at the time). Ukrainian ascension would be a significant step to encirclement, something that Russia has been wary of since WW1.

A 1994 agreement between Russia, Great Britain, and the US assured Ukrainian political and military independence. Ukraine nonetheless wanted membership, to the point of applying for a membership plan in 2008. Russia tried to torpedo this by emplacing Yanukovych (who was uninterested in NATO); the US responded by instigating the Euromaidan unrest which resulted in the installation of Poroshenko and then Zelensky, a puppet. Promptly thereafter, Russia annexed Crimea in an effort to both retain control of an important port, and solidify their buffer -- view this as an insurance measure in response to Western intervention in Ukraine. This didn't have the effect Putin was hoping for; instead of the West backing off and Ukraine realizing it was caught between two great powers and trying to remain neutral, things escalated. The Ukrainian government began aggressively pursuing NATO membership, and NATO increased exercises in Ukraine, set up funds for the Ukrainian military, and put them on aspirant status. This all culminated in the Ukrainian government amending their constitution in 2019 to enshrine progression towards NATO and EU membership as central objectives. That's when tensions began to really escalate, and when Russia likely began planning the invasion.

The development and ramifications of this situation haven't been obscured; Mearsheimer has been saying for years (in a now-very-popular video clip from 2015) that precisely this would happen, because the situation in Ukraine is unique.*

Those factors are all largely unique to Ukraine. Russia lacks these same motivations to just roll through the Baltics -- what's there for them? They're further unable to occupy and pacify these other countries simultaneously. Ukraine, by itself, is a very large country to subdue (even with a horrific "military"). Furthermore, continued aggression would be more than enough to bring the rest of the world into the fight; the only thing restraining NATO right now is the consideration that Russia is not going on an irrational rampage, but is doing this for very precise reasons that are limited in scope. Putin is well aware of these limitations.

Incidentally, this same behavior is why Putin curbstomped Georgia in 2008 -- Russia wants its buffer, and Georgia was asking for NATO membership.

You need to stop uncritically consuming the hysteria and theater** from the globohomo propaganda machine, and read more about neorealism.

As an aside, Russia is winning quite badly; most Ukrainian forces are or will soon be encircled, Russia has taken Kherson and will soon take Kharkiv, and once they do, Kiev is dun here.

* https://twitter.com/wimgrommen/status/1505575314323353605 is the clip that went viral, but you should view his entire lecture to understand this situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

** https://twitter.com/LezLuthor/status/1500175827161554946

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185000)

That's incorrect, Ukraine never talked about NATO membership before 2014, the Crimean annexation. The talk was about EU, and the whole NATO line is a sham alongside denazification.

They had the right to do whatever they wanted with their economy.

The idiocy of "encirclement" of Russia becomes obvious as soon as you look at the map.

You just picked an alternative propaganda line in leu of looking critically at the media.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185037)

Lmao you're wrong about NATO but let's put that to the side for the second -- oh so Ukraine *only* wanted EU membership (again this is wrong but ignoring that) which is of course totally not a form of encroachment on Russia by the West and therefore Russia has absolutely no right to be alarmed by that also the world is just filled to the brim with shades of grey where do we draaaaaw the liiiiiiine *pushes up glasses and wheezes excitedly* it's all just soooooo complicated and highly nuanced and why would you even SUGGEST that I am Jewish you filthy fucking antisemitic piece of shit?!?!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185059)

You are living in an imaginary caricature world of some sorts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185109)

(Guy wondering if Russia will invade Germany or Austria next)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185115)

http://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&mc=49&forum_id=2#44183282

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185133)

"That's, like TOTALLY different, maaaaan! One is retarded, the other is really smart! Do you even, like, law?"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185185)

"Jupiter is a totally different plant from Uranus! I wasn't retarded when I said we might go to *Jupiter* soon, it's not the same thing as Uranus you retard!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185304)

"Why do people keep accusing me of being Jewish?!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185322)

Yeah I haven't "had any position" on this whole Russia invading Ukraine thing up until the last few hours, you got me pumo goddamn why am I so gay and retarded haha yeah?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185142)

You've had some time to figure out what the alt right position is, so now you can parrot it in your formulaic style.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185266)

There's no hedging "prob" included in an accurate statement of my position, and also that's literally still my position nothing has changed and that's the point you fucking faggot quotemo.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185314)

you have no fucking idea what you're talking about

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=bucharest+summit+2008+ukraine

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185066)

I reiterate: you have no fucking idea what you're talking about, your knowledge gaps of both history and IR are glaring, and you possess a 15 year old's understanding of geopolitics: "He's just gonna take it all over cause he wants to! We've gotta stop him!"

You should shut the fuck up, take your gaping, and read more.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185181)

The bottom line here is that pro-Russia arguments boil down to Russians thinking that these lands belong to them, and my argument is that they can decide for themselves, as with the individual rights, "conservatives and true liberals (not to be confused with libs)" who scream "Go Russia!" here are supposed to support.

One look at the "liberators" vs civilians in Ukraine tells you all you need to know here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185279)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185324)

Bottom line is that Russia is a grim nightmarish shithole, and no one wants to have anything to do with it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185390)

Wow this really *does* sound fair and balanced, hard to argue with any of this analysis I think this covers it all you're probably 100% right PS fuck Russia forever just bomb it into dust they're totally in the wrong I guess they're just stupid and evil or something haha yeah

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185450)

You continue to demonstrate that you have no fucking clue about any of this. Read more, poast less.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185517)

It's amazing how fiercely people like you will defend the Ukrainian "right" to "self-determination" in a post-Soviet world order, but will SCREAM about TREASON if anyone starts suggesting that oh I don't know maybe Idaho should have a right to secede from the United States of America if they decide they want to do that and it would be wrong for the American federal government to use military power to attempt to stop that secession.

I don't know your personal position on that, but I guarantee that 90% of the people on "your" side of this debate would immediately respond with "THAT'S TOTALLY DIFFERENT!" I guess it's sort of like how preserving national sovereignty and securing its borders is critically important for Ukraine, but doesn't really matter when it comes to America for uh reasons.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185604)

- great powers have interests in countries other than their own

- only fucking children think that those powers are bound by some sort of emotionally generated "moral norm" about "self-determination" -- it's normal and rational for them to be concerned about goings on that affect them, and it's reasonable for them to act to influence those outcomes

- you need to read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_realism

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185616)

CR

"But muh words on muh paper! If you simply read the AGREEMENTS WE HAVE ALL AGREED TO LIVE BY, you'll see that..."

Lmao might makes right. That's the whole analysis. Always has been, always will be. And the moment that those who hold powerful today reveal themselves to be too morally weak or lazy or degenerate or stupid or foolish or arrogant etc. to actually exercise it in a sufficiently ruthless manner against those who would challenge them, they have doomed themselves to a future position of weakness tomorrow.

"America" is now gay, which means that it's already over. The only question is when and how the fall happens, and how rough the crash landing becomes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185632)

Does it or does it not?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185646)

But your original fucking argument wasn't a normative argument, it was a predictive one. I blew that the fuck out and now you're trying to pivot. You're fucking wrong there too though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185652)

this is literally incoherent, you seem like a rage addled boomer

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185701)

Second, it has everything to do with self-determination, as long as you realize that the rights are God-given.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185859)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185865)

claiming that something isn't a real right is making a distinction between abstracts

you can go further and divide rights into legal and natural ones; self-determination isn't a natural one, which are the only ones I consider meaningful.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185894)

If you're talking about "rights" with a straight face in 2022, you've already proven that you're on the wrong side of the only debate that actually matters at the end of the day (reality vs. delusion).

Here's the only "right" that exists in this world: Might makes right. That's it. That's the end, that's literally the full analysis. Everything else is gloss and make believe.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185655)

Jesus Christ just close this fucking thread.

/end

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185039)

Author: To be fair

To be fair,

Jesus Christ just close this fucking thread.

/end

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185039)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44240003)

Author: HEGEMON(Hegemon)

As an aside, Russia is winning quite badly; most Ukrainian forces are or will soon be encircled, Russia has taken Kherson and will soon take Kharkiv, and once they do, Kiev is dun here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185382)

2) I'm gonna guess within four months for it all to be wrapped up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185540)

lmmaooo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44239990)

There is absolutely zero enthusiasm in the West for risking nuclear war to defend Latvia or Estonia. There is a good chance that NATO simply stands down. If that happens, NATO collapses, for starters. There is a good chance that Eastern Europe decides that the West is not going to protect them, so they realign with Russia. With the collapse of NATO and the realignment of Eastern Europe, the U.S. loses more international credibility/soft power than at any other point in its history.

The only other option is to fight Russia to defend Latvia and Estonia and hope that Putin was bluffing when he threatened to drop the bomb. Neither option is very appealing to me.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44186778)

WW2 was convenient for them in retrospect, just bait the other side into attacking and then take over for 50 years “while you figure out what’s going on.”

If they weren’t poor they could control Ukrainian politics/economy from behind the scenes and just annex at some point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184564)

Russia has two "claims" to Georgia territory. It doesn't even border Armenia.

The only other one is moldova which is worthless except as a buffer against Europe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185137)

Because OP is a fucking unironic retard.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185144)

still dont see how anyone with any take on this other than a HOT TAKE thinks Russia is invading Armenia let alone doing it before the others

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189876)

They can try to split NATO but they will fail, if Russians will go for Baltics. WWIII I guess.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185345)

They also clearly dream about taking the Baltics after that, and would if they could, but I doubt they will now.

I don’t see them going further than now in the Caucuses.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44186503)