left media is quoting Trump saying Republicans are gonna "cheat like hell like [Democrats] do" at the midterm convention and urging people to vote in person
i'm on unemployment ($450/wk), still trying to find a job, have a few prospects in the works rn. probably gonna take a pay cut compared to my last job; i'm applying to anything over $150k whereas i was in the 180s before. but now that i'm cooking 90% of my meals instead of ordering 90% on the delivery apps, i'm pretty confident $150k will be fine.
ty. i have almost half a million in retirement accounts that i can withdraw from at massive penalty if i don't find anything in the next few months and run out of money. my 12yo mattress just got fucked and i just had an unexpected $900 expense buying a new one so that day may come sooner than i thought
Date: October 6th, 2026 4:53 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface
The "Democrats = Communism" and "Republicans = Freedom's Last Stand" shit makes me think you're a caricature. I know it's a faux pas to ask, but is this IRL or just schtick?
Date: October 6th, 2026 5:14 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface
You're either deep into method acting or it's the former, and since you don't strike me in any way as talented or insightful, it looks like we've got an answer
Date: October 6th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: Galvanic Step-uncle's House
the israel obsession out of nowhere is even gayer and more forced than the Ukraine shit. At least with Ukraine they’re fucking up Russia even if it is a retarded waste of money and human life that we should never gotten involved with.
Iran stuff you see libs openly rooting against America and for our enemies.
Date: October 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface
You're right. One has nearly bankrupted us, corrupted our democracy, destroyed our social cohesion, and made us into global villains. The other was dumb enough to give up their nukes and rely on promises of protection
Date: October 6th, 2026 5:13 PM Author: Disturbing Space Gunner
cr
This board is a remote little island of angry midwit weirdos now, very little correspondence to IRL. Big difference from say 2016 when we were plugged tf in to what was coming.
Date: October 6th, 2026 11:10 PM Author: Electric Doctorate
Cr my bros and I (all 6'4+) were just talking about how 180 Israel is but also how it's nbd and pales in comparison to the real issues facing everyday hardworking folks
Is the early midterms voting data more favorable to Democrats or Republicans?
So far, the early-voting data show higher Democratic participation relative to recent baselines, although the data are still sparse and heavily weighted toward mail voting. The clearest evidence is Virginia: as of the latest detailed analysis, voters with a Democratic-primary history were outnumbering those with a Republican-primary history by about 18 points statewide, versus only about an 8-point Democratic advantage at the same stage in 2024. In two competitive Republican-held House districts, the change was especially large: VA-1 went from roughly R+3 at this point in 2024 to D+15 now, and VA-2 from about D+2 to D+18.
There are similar patterns in mail-ballot requests. Registered Democrats account for 67% of requests in Iowa (54% at the comparable point in 2024), 66% in Pennsylvania (62% in 2024), 57% in Maine (53%), and 42% in North Carolina (36%). One important qualification is that, except for Iowa, those Democratic shares are actually lower than they were at the comparable point in the 2022 midterm.
The reason I would not translate those figures directly into an election forecast is that mail voting is structurally much more Democratic than Election Day voting, and Republicans have tended to cast a larger portion of their votes later. VoteHub specifically warns that the meaningful comparison is not simply D versus R ballots today, but whether each party is turning out voters faster than its historical pattern—and whether it is reaching lower-propensity voters rather than merely banking votes from people who would certainly vote anyway.
That said, the relative-to-baseline numbers are the interesting part, particularly Virginia. The difference between D+18 now and D+8 at the comparable point in 2024 is harder to dismiss merely as Democrats preferring early voting, because that preference existed in 2024 too. The same is true of the sizable shifts in VA-1 and VA-2. That is evidence of a Democratic turnout/enthusiasm advantage at this stage of voting, rather than evidence about how the ballots themselves were cast.
It's also consistent with the broader environment: recent national polling has shown Democrats ahead on congressional preference, while contemporary election analysis has identified Democratic enthusiasm as one of the important features of the 2026 electorate.
Bottom line as of October 6: the early-vote evidence currently shows stronger Democratic participation relative to recent comparable periods, with Virginia providing the strongest signal. But we're still roughly four weeks from Election Day, many states have barely begun in-person voting, and Republican turnout historically arrives later. So these numbers are considerably more useful as an enthusiasm indicator than as a proxy for the eventual vote.
The next thing I'd watch is whether that Virginia D-overperformance persists once several hundred thousand more in-person votes come in, and whether the same pattern emerges in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and the competitive House districts. That will tell us substantially more than today's national aggregate.
I can keep an eye on the early-vote data and let you know when the picture materially changes.
Also, 2022 is a horrible comparator, because the pandemic was still going on then, which Democrats took much more seriously than Republicans and so voted by mail much more.
Well, let's ask MAGA Grok then (not gonna waste my mental energy on this, plus we are both biased)
Is the early midterms voting data more favorable to Democrats or Republicans?
Thought for 10s
Early voting data for the 2026 midterms currently looks more favorable to Democrats, mainly as a sign of higher Democratic participation so far—not as a count of actual votes.
As of October 6, the University of Florida Election Lab reports about 1.6 million early votes nationwide (roughly 1.3 million returned mail ballots and 304,000 in-person). In the states that report party registration, the split among those who have already voted is about 58% Democratic, 26% Republican, and 16% unaffiliated or minor-party. That is a large Democratic edge, but it covers only part of the country and a small share of the expected total vote.
CNN’s October 1 analysis of ballot requests and early returns (compiled with the AP and Catalist) found the same pattern in several competitive states, and a larger Democratic share than at the same point in 2024:
Iowa: Democrats about 67% of ballot requests, up from 54%
Pennsylvania: 66%, up from 62%
Maine: 57%, up from 53%
North Carolina: 42%, up from 36%
In Virginia, which does not register by party, localities that backed Harris by more than 20 points in 2024 were at 78% of their early-voting pace from the same point in 2024, versus 61% in localities Trump won by more than 20. Using primary participation as a proxy, Democratic primary voters were also leading among early voters in competitive House districts (roughly 15–18 points in VA-1 and VA-2). North Carolina data posted the same day showed early/absentee ballots so far about 45% Democratic, 17% Republican, and 38% unaffiliated, with voters 65 and older making up about 61%.
These numbers line up with stronger Democratic primary turnout this year and with polling that has generally shown Democrats more motivated. An NBC poll in September also found Democrats shifting somewhat toward early in-person voting and away from mail relative to 2024, while Republican plans (mostly Election Day) were little changed.
Important limits:
Party registration is not the same as how someone votes. Ballots are not counted until Election Day.
Early and especially mail voters have skewed Democratic in recent cycles; Republicans have tended to vote later, often on Election Day. CNN notes that, except in Iowa, Democratic shares of requests in those states were higher at this point in 2022 than they are now.
Volume is still small relative to the roughly 57 million pre-Election Day votes in 2022. Most in-person early voting ramps up later in October.
The early electorate is heavily older (about 65% age 65+ in states reporting age).
So the early data favor Democrats on turnout and enthusiasm relative to 2024, but they do not yet show who will win, and the gap can narrow as in-person early voting and Election Day voting increase. Election Day is November 3.
in 2024 i started reading the methodology sections and they admit to manipulating the numbers sooo much. really easy to under- or over-count groups to get the results close to what they want. especially if it's a "Likely Voters" total - they have the most absurd formulas that they present as corresponding to voter likelihood.
Date: October 11th, 2026 5:54 PM Author: Carnelian dashing black woman hissy fit
Dem party whose highest priority is appeasing the Jewish supremacist billionaire donor are letting him rot. They’d rather loose than support a candidate who dares to criticize beautiful innocent sweet little Israel.
Date: October 7th, 2026 3:01 PM Author: Disturbing Space Gunner
Really though this is because of the 3MM+ deportations Trump has accomplished so far plus his mail fraud crackdown. (Both of which are still heavily ongoing as we speak.)
Trend is going to stay like this and all the key races will be Joever by Halloween. Election Day in-person voting will just be GOP kicking libs while they’re down.
Date: October 9th, 2026 5:46 PM Author: Disturbing Space Gunner
I concede dems will probably overperform in Virginia from all the seething unemployed feds, plus I assume CIA Abby’s voter fraud machine runs pretty tight.
GOP blue-to-red House flips elsewhere will balance it out.