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Serious Q: Safe to put $8,800 on Obama on Intrade?
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:24 PM Author: primrose internet-worthy field generalized bond Sure, it's just for $1,200. But I mean, he's winning for sure, right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299770) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:25 PM Author: Aggressive fiercely-loyal rehab legend Do you not know about intrade?
It's not "for sure." The market is predicting, what, 88%. Sure it's good shot, but you still have greater than 1/10 chance of losing.
It can happen dood. Go from there. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:28 PM Author: chartreuse aphrodisiac toaster It would foolish to bet on Obama. The polls are probably overstating Obama's lead. He's definitely up, but not by 8 points. Haven't you been paying attention in every election where the Dem gets fewer votes than the polls predict. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299782) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:34 PM Author: swollen gaming laptop A bigger risk, but with a high chance of return is Obama getting at least 350 EV's.
Currently trading at something like a 66. Put 7000 into the Obama win and the other bit into him getting in at 360 EVs.
Also, my personal opinion, based on early voting stats and Obama largely outperforming polls on primary day is North Carolina. Also trading at like a 66. I think its a mortal fucking lock. 1 million people have already voted early there, and to Obama by wide wide margins.
Note: I put 5K on obama to win when he was trading between 50 and 60. Now i've diversified into states and EV's etc. There's still money to be made on this thing if you can stand risk. and not just 10%.
Put a couple of shares on Georgia also. Seriously. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:59 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage serious q, is this legal? and, how do you plan on reporting your income (which is gonna be sweeet btw) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300228) |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:01 AM Author: swollen gaming laptop Probably depends on state law. Also, this is a prediction market--government might want to actually keep it legal. (The government was thinking about opening a prediction market on timing and location of the next terrorist attack--loose lips, etc)
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:26 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker You're a stupid fucking moron if you think there's much growth potential starting at 88 points (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299778) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:31 PM Author: exciting deer antler OP acknowledged that, asshole. he asked if it is safe. hth! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299789) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:35 PM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman in the vast scope of things, 10% is pretty good return for 7 days (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299797) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:36 PM Author: Razzle sanctuary Do you understand how intrade works? If Obama wins the election, each contract closes at 100. OP obviously is trying to hold the contracts until the election is over. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299804) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:34 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker The contract can't be bought or sold after it expires. It's presumably a share exchange and not a betting parlor where the house bears the losses. Are you telling me that if you spent 13 dollars on McCain right now and he wins the election, Intrade would have to pay to pony up an additional 87 dollars to close out just that one share? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299918) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:10 PM Author: Razzle sanctuary Look, you obviously don't understand what the OP is talking about so I'll be nice.
There are 1.1 million contracts out there for Obama, and 1.1 million for McCain. All the contracts have already been paid for.
After the election is over, the money that went to the loser contracts will be transferred to those holding winner contracts (minus a cut for the house).
So, on intrade right now, some people holding Obama contracts are selling them for about 88. http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=409933
OP can buy about 900 contracts at, on average, 88 - 88.1. These contracts are all spoken for, meaning there are people out there holding (and having paid for) corresponding McCain contracts. OP is not buying new contracts. He is buying them from existing holders.
If OP buys these 900 contracts at 88, and holds them until the election is over, and Obama wins, he will get an additional 12 for each contract.
Is that clear? |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:17 PM Author: haunting elastic band lol faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300008) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:25 PM Author: Slippery Sweet Tailpipe Voyeur You should seriously stay away from this topic to avoid further pwning the fuck out of yourself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300025) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:31 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker There is absolutely no intuitive reason something would work that way. It's not really like a stock exchange. That's why I was asking for more information. You could learn a thing or two if you weren't so ignorant. Only a faggot would think that it would naturally make sense for a contract to close out at 100 or 0. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300041) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:34 PM Author: Saffron aromatic police squad address but that is actually the way it works, it doesnt matter if it is intuitive or not. you came in this thread acting like a fucking smarmy know it all faggot when you actually had no idea of what was going on. lol @ you calling the people who knew what happens ignorant. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300050) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:37 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker In that case, it's a horrible fucking investment. He loses 9000 or he gains 900. At least if you held some decent stocks (especially starting now, near the bottom), you aren't guaranteed to either have slightly more money or lose everything 7 days from now. He might as well go to Vegas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300061) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:31 PM Author: Saffron aromatic police squad address lol you got pwn3d in this exchange. dont worry it happens to everybody. best for you to quit blustering and forget you posted itt. its not clear its a horrible investment based on his tolerance for risk and his view of the probability of either outcome. if he thinks there is a 95% chance of an obama win the expected value versus loss is $855 versus $450. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300169) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:39 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker So in other words, I was completely right, but for slightly different reasons. You think he should bet rent money on this? In the real world, not everything is calculated in pure probabilities. There's a thing called risk aversion. Like being averse to losing 9,000 dollars. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300189) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:44 PM Author: Saffron aromatic police squad address no in other words you weren't right at all. you weren't right in your original smarmy and totally factually incorrect post, and you also weren't right in your back track post hoc explanation. i don't think you understand risk aversion or how people price risk/expected values. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300199) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:47 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker LOL, let's blow our money on everything! Everything is a pure numerical calculation! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300202) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:50 PM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman the next president is going to be a democrat dude...
why not pocket a grand free? |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:56 PM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker I have a good feeling he will be, but I also don't discount the stupidity of the american people. I also wouldn't want to risk losing a $90,000 car with no options just to win a $90,000 car with $9,000 worth of options, even if the chances were fairly good. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300223) |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:03 AM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman i understand your skepticism, even though i don't think that's a good parallel.
he can buy the contracts and then sell them in the next week, so if he's risk averse, he's unlikely to lose his principal. if the polls tighten or if something unanticipated happens, he can just unload his position at an appropriately discounted rate and breath in relief. alternatively, he can hold them until election night, and if all things go as projected, sell them very close to expiration (ie, 98.5, 99). it's actually a lot like buying a stock, only the mechanisms that drive it's value are a lot more transparent to someone without a technical background. the max profit/loss is obviously an important difference, but as far as making investments in life, this doesn't seem all that risky to me, considering that he can dump the contracts if he gets uneasy. |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:05 AM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker It's a fair point, but keep in mind that we are working under a series of posts which began with this:
"Do you understand how intrade works? If Obama wins the election, each contract closes at 100. OP obviously is trying to hold the contracts until the election is over."
So it's either a 10% or so gain or a total loss under this assumption. That's the very frightening thing about this scenario. In the real world, you could just sell low and still retain some of the value of your investment. |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:08 AM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman that's a rather dubious and bizzare assumption, because that's simply not how intrade works.
that obviously was the OP's intention -- to hold them until they expire -- but if he buys the contracts, he'll also have the option of selling them before then should he choose. |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:37 AM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker He's obviously hoping to make money off this, so the option is either (assuming he buys the contract)
1) Wait until the contract expires and gain 10% or lose everything OR 2) Wait some period of time and sell before the contract expires if it gets too risky
In the latter case, he can only make money if there is a growth potential between what the price is now and what the price may be. That's what I was skeptical of and the case I was envisioning. In the former case, he has to deal with the probability of Obama winning the election anyway, regardless of how Intrade values that probability, assuming no intervening events which would affect the election (and since we are viewing that probability from buying the contract today, that's probably the perspective from which it should be viewed) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:55 PM Author: Saffron aromatic police squad address actually yes when you are deciding where to invest your money it is a numerical calculation of expected risk versus expected reward. the ops question was if the obama win was a sure thing. if it is in fact a "sure thing" and there was in fact a 100% chance of gaining $900 and a 0% chance of losing money then it would be foolish not to invest.
you are just digging the hole deeper and deeper, really there is no need to win every message board argument. you tried to act like a dick, you failed, move along. |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:01 AM Author: Yapping Crackhouse Windowlicker See above. You're saying that it's all probabilities? You're saying you would risk losing a $600,000 house to gain a $660,000 house even if there were only a 1% chance that you would lose the house and be entirely homeless? Because most rational people wouldn't. That's your view of the world. And you can pretend that $9,000 is nothing compared to that, but this isn't some Econ Phd's new thesis experiment about how 2 subjects decide to apportion 20 bucks between them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300236) |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:06 AM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman yes, and i would easily be able to hedge my potential loss with a long line of rich investors if i was feeling very unlucky. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300251) |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 1:27 AM Author: Saffron aromatic police squad address this has gone enormously far afield from your original factually incorrect argument but you continue to flounder.
"You're saying you would risk losing a $600,000 house to gain a $660,000 house even if there were only a 1% chance that you would lose the house and be entirely homeless?"
no i'm not. this is a very nice straw man that you've constructed as a last ditch chance to seem like you're making an educated point, but you really need to give up. $9,000 in liquid capital is obviously not remotely the same as a $600,000 house. losing $9,000 in liquid capital is not remotely the same as losing $600,000 in home equity and becoming homeless. obviously $9,000 in liquid funds means different things to different people but that's entirely beside the point. all of this is completely irrelevant to the question of whether or not this is a good strategy. your ridiculous straw man argument seems to be suggesting that no amount of risk is ever acceptable for an investment or that it is never acceptable to put $x of capital at risk in an investment, both of which are patently untrue and which anybody who knows the first thing about investment understands. if you think obama has around a 95% chance of winning, which is a completely plausible, you have a $855 expected value on a $9,000 investment with only a one week window. that seems like a pretty good rate of return to me.
now i realize that you probably don't really believe any of the various things you have been advancing and that you probably are not stupid, and that you are probably just trolling to be a jerk. but it's time to move on. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:28 PM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman i'd bet on the DEM.PRES contract instead to be safe, but it seems like a pretty safe bet to me
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:12 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage correct
edit: if it's about the same as BO |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:52 PM Author: swollen gaming laptop note that if Obama dies before the election it pays off at whatever the K was the day before the death occurred. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300208) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 8:52 PM Author: chestnut gaping space It's a good bet. McCain is hovering around 3% now in regressions on 538. In reality, Obama is a lock barring any MAJOR game changing events. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299835) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:10 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage obama will win over 350 EVs. probably, the *only* thing that could change that is a terrorist attack. your arbitrage opporunities here are decent but not that great. 10% chance of serious terrorist attack/turns out obama really is an arab/voter fraud sounds high, but we're talking a few percentage points. the time to get in was when i did, when obama was trading below mcsame 4 weeks ago (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299869) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:13 PM Author: chestnut gaping space i'd say those events are less than 1% chance. we're talking about a 12% return here.
there is risk involved, but if you can tolerate the risk the potential returns look very good. unless you need the money for food and shelter, i'd put it on the line. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:24 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage obviously it's hard to estimate these risks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299900) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:17 PM Author: Exhilarant offensive people who are hurt Definitely a good bet. 538 has McCain's chances of winning at 3.3%, and while I'm sure his methodology is not perfect, its a darn sight better than anyone elses. Given the poll numbers right now, and the fact that a major game changer would have limited effect (as early voting is going 2-1 in Obama's favor and 30% of votes are expected to be registered this way), and McCain's odds are in reality pretty much zero. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299883) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:25 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage his model doesn't account for terrorist attacks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299904) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 9:33 PM Author: Exhilarant offensive people who are hurt One, the odds of a major terrorist attack before election day are extremely low. That fact that this might be the only thing that anyone thinks could save McCain pretty much indicates he's 99.9% doomed.
Even if one happened tomorrow, probably 10-15% of swing state voters have already voted, and because early voters are swinging heavily towards Obama, it probably wouldn't matter. A major terrorist attack isn't going to cause a complete change in votes. Also, considering that Obama is now polling even with McCain in this area, I doubt it would cause as big a shift as you're assuming. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:35 PM Author: Hyperventilating blood rage i like your analysis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300176) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 10:06 PM Author: gold diverse box office personal credit line Isn't there also a spread to be taken into account? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10299983) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:37 PM Author: Light motley alpha No. I do not think it is a "for sure" thing just yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300183) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:53 PM Author: Wonderful fuchsia pisswyrm skinny woman you're also a deluded hack who lives in lala land (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300211) |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:54 PM Author: swollen gaming laptop No, it's not "for sure" until the Diebold machines have told us who the next president is.
But I'd say it's waaaaay less than a 12% chance mccain wins.
Only put in what you can afford to totally lose. Note that I'm talking both about the Intrade market and the Dow right now. |
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Date: October 26th, 2008 11:59 PM Author: chest-beating hilarious ape Sportsbook,com has it Obama -700 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300229) |
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Date: October 27th, 2008 12:26 AM Author: Spectacular Station Coffee Pot No, it's not safe at all.
Polls right now say McCain has like a 5 percent chance of winning. You have to take into account that the polls may be flawed, that probably means McCain has a 10% chance of winning.
Also, theres still a week left and things can change fast. There might be a huge surprise or a big gaffe--"whitey" or Obama being a Kenyan citizen type.
Also, remember that all McCain has to do is win the state Bush did. He had a about a 5% chance of winning the nominee and look how that worked out. There are no sure things. Obama will probably win, but if you can't afford to lose 8k don't bet on it. Think Patriots superbowl or rays world series odds. |
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Date: November 4th, 2008 9:09 PM Author: Supple persian (I'm the OP, forgot which deanrobbins I used)
"Date: October 26th, 2008 10:37 PM Author: trendy asian girl with Louis Vuitton bag and acne
In that case, it's a horrible fucking investment. He loses 9000 or he gains 900. At least if you held some decent stocks (especially starting now, near the bottom), you aren't guaranteed to either have slightly more money or lose everything 7 days from now. He might as well go to Vegas.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10300061)"
Hey faggot, thanks for the advice. I just won $1,600 (bought Obama at 84) in 7 days for doing jackshit. What did you do in the past 7 days? Jerked off to nigger pics? |
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Date: November 4th, 2008 9:18 PM Author: metal boltzmann lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=873227&forum_id=2#10328020) |