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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 12/10/15 |
| vermilion low-t hall | 12/12/15 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/02/17 |
| diverse henna rehab | 01/06/16 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 01/06/16 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 06/05/16 |
| Disgusting Alpha | 03/26/16 |
| haunting masturbator | 01/02/17 |
| maroon multi-colored blood rage dilemma | 10/25/18 |
| Insecure tripping menage | 12/10/15 |
| Lime french chef | 12/10/15 |
| Marvelous walnut corn cake | 12/10/15 |
| Bull headed bateful athletic conference | 12/10/15 |
| smoky mewling prole space | 12/15/15 |
| blue locale | 12/10/15 |
| Mind-boggling parlor | 12/10/15 |
| Aquamarine patrolman trailer park | 12/10/15 |
| Sick Pit Yarmulke | 12/11/15 |
| gay travel guidebook | 12/12/15 |
| lake cumskin | 12/16/15 |
| galvanic chartreuse theater philosopher-king | 01/04/16 |
| Swashbuckling Orange Knife University | 11/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 12/11/15 |
| Appetizing pearl brunch | 12/11/15 |
| charismatic crawly incel | 12/11/15 |
| Sick Pit Yarmulke | 12/11/15 |
| Sooty heady feces | 12/12/15 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 01/25/16 |
| costumed meetinghouse ratface | 11/10/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 12/12/15 |
| Concupiscible heaven | 12/12/15 |
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| Iridescent contagious rigor library | 12/12/15 |
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| Fragrant national security agency | 12/21/15 |
| angry shrine turdskin | 12/12/15 |
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| gaped church | 12/12/15 |
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| Khaki abnormal indian lodge mental disorder | 12/15/15 |
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| Submissive Theatre Partner | 12/15/15 |
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| Soul-stirring slippery casino | 12/15/15 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 12/15/15 |
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| Dun Ceo Macaca | 12/15/15 |
| self-absorbed ticket booth | 01/05/16 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 01/25/16 |
| Painfully Honest International Law Enforcement Agency Electric Furnace | 12/17/16 |
| wine party of the first part | 05/18/16 |
| bronze provocative kitchen | 08/12/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/09/16 |
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| Trip Outnumbered Location Pistol | 11/09/16 |
| cowardly temple sound barrier | 10/22/20 |
| Nubile histrionic office | 12/15/15 |
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| Shimmering Cruel-hearted Old Irish Cottage Useless Brakes | 12/16/15 |
| Misanthropic mediation | 12/16/15 |
| electric sapphire main people | 12/16/15 |
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| vibrant cuckoldry | 12/18/15 |
| diverse henna rehab | 01/06/16 |
| Transparent wonderful mexican dopamine | 12/18/15 |
| electric sapphire main people | 12/21/15 |
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| Fragrant national security agency | 12/21/15 |
| electric sapphire main people | 12/30/15 |
| electric sapphire main people | 12/30/15 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/04/16 |
| galvanic chartreuse theater philosopher-king | 01/04/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/05/16 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 01/25/16 |
| vibrant cuckoldry | 01/05/16 |
| Beady-eyed senate idea he suggested | 01/05/16 |
| bright marketing idea multi-billionaire | 01/05/16 |
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| diverse henna rehab | 01/06/16 |
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| bronze provocative kitchen | 01/06/16 |
| Fragrant national security agency | 01/07/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/08/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 01/08/16 |
| Fragrant national security agency | 01/08/16 |
| vibrant cuckoldry | 01/09/16 |
| Fragrant national security agency | 01/10/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/18/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/19/16 |
| vibrant cuckoldry | 01/21/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/25/16 |
| opaque resort | 01/25/16 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 01/25/16 |
| opaque resort | 02/09/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 09/06/16 |
| diverse henna rehab | 11/05/18 |
| mildly autistic exhilarant striped hyena | 01/29/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 02/01/16 |
| soggy cracking windowlicker | 02/01/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 02/01/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 02/07/16 |
| Beady-eyed senate idea he suggested | 02/09/16 |
| Floppy business firm halford | 02/09/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 02/20/16 |
| Hideous pungent state | 02/20/16 |
| wine party of the first part | 02/24/16 |
| jet bat shit crazy church building | 02/24/16 |
| Harsh public bath giraffe | 02/27/16 |
| Khaki abnormal indian lodge mental disorder | 03/09/16 |
| Cobalt Deranged Bawdyhouse | 03/15/16 |
| Marvelous walnut corn cake | 03/15/16 |
| Laughsome disrespectful skinny woman | 03/16/16 |
| razzmatazz black woman piazza | 02/24/16 |
| crystalline 180 elastic band | 02/24/16 |
| Laughsome disrespectful skinny woman | 07/21/16 |
| Umber house sandwich | 02/24/16 |
| Marvelous walnut corn cake | 02/27/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/02/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/04/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed senate idea he suggested | 03/09/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/15/16 |
| wine party of the first part | 03/15/16 |
| Peach Doctorate | 03/15/16 |
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| electric sapphire main people | 03/16/16 |
| Mind-boggling parlor | 03/16/16 |
| motley address bbw | 03/23/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/23/16 |
| gaped church | 03/26/16 |
| lascivious milky wagecucks reading party | 03/26/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/26/16 |
| self-absorbed ticket booth | 03/28/16 |
| motley address bbw | 03/28/16 |
| Lime french chef | 03/28/16 |
| bronze provocative kitchen | 08/12/16 |
| diverse henna rehab | 11/05/18 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/28/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/29/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 03/29/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 03/29/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/29/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/29/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/01/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/04/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 04/15/16 |
| cyan national place of business | 04/15/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/19/16 |
| curious internal respiration | 04/20/16 |
| White gas station degenerate | 04/20/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/24/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/25/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/26/16 |
| odious voyeur legend | 04/26/16 |
| salmon adventurous jap | 04/30/16 |
| coral boltzmann | 05/01/16 |
| coral boltzmann | 11/07/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/02/16 |
| motley address bbw | 05/02/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/03/16 |
| Ungodly free-loading crackhouse | 05/03/16 |
| Anal Zombie-like Rigpig | 05/03/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/04/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 05/04/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/05/16 |
| aphrodisiac wrinkle | 05/05/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 05/05/16 |
| crystalline 180 elastic band | 05/05/16 |
| Concupiscible heaven | 05/18/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/18/16 |
| wine party of the first part | 05/18/16 |
| Concupiscible heaven | 05/18/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 05/29/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 06/20/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 06/29/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/14/16 |
| Avocado nursing home kitty | 07/15/16 |
| bronze provocative kitchen | 07/15/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/17/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 07/17/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/21/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/22/16 |
| Racy Azn | 07/22/16 |
| aromatic sanctuary hominid | 07/23/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/24/16 |
| glittery forum | 07/25/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 07/25/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 07/27/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 08/05/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 08/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 08/12/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 08/12/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 08/12/16 |
| arousing ruby parlour | 08/12/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 08/30/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 08/30/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 09/06/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 09/13/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 09/14/16 |
| angry shrine turdskin | 09/14/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle locus | 09/15/16 |
| Flesh Comical Native Telephone | 09/15/16 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 09/15/16 |
| beta offensive community account | 09/15/16 |
| Puce talented goal in life area | 09/15/16 |
| carmine stimulating persian | 09/19/16 |
| carmine stimulating persian | 09/19/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 09/27/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 09/24/16 |
| electric sapphire main people | 09/27/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 09/27/16 |
| Mind-boggling parlor | 09/27/16 |
| Vivacious stage puppy | 10/08/16 |
| Hateful passionate ladyboy whorehouse | 07/29/24 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 09/28/16 |
| angry shrine turdskin | 09/28/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 09/28/16 |
| White gas station degenerate | 09/28/16 |
| cyan national place of business | 09/28/16 |
| geriatric son of senegal abode | 10/08/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 10/09/16 |
| Cream Fighting Pozpig | 10/09/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 10/09/16 |
| sickened cerebral stain gunner | 10/09/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 10/10/16 |
| glittery forum | 10/30/16 |
| bronze provocative kitchen | 11/01/16 |
| beta offensive community account | 11/01/16 |
| Naked copper stage | 11/02/16 |
| Submissive Theatre Partner | 11/02/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 11/07/16 |
| Boyish Stead Pisswyrm | 11/08/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 11/08/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/08/16 |
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| Jade internet-worthy idiot boiling water | 11/08/16 |
| razzle light generalized bond orchestra pit | 11/08/16 |
| soggy cracking windowlicker | 11/08/16 |
| carmine stimulating persian | 11/08/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/08/16 |
| abusive charcoal haunted graveyard | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle locus | 11/09/16 |
| silver famous landscape painting mad-dog skullcap | 11/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/09/16 |
| beta offensive community account | 11/09/16 |
| abusive charcoal haunted graveyard | 11/09/16 |
| glittery forum | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Turquoise Balding Principal's Office | 12/03/16 |
| costumed meetinghouse ratface | 12/07/16 |
| Painfully Honest International Law Enforcement Agency Electric Furnace | 12/17/16 |
| Yapping hell | 10/11/24 |
| Crimson hot site digit ratio | 11/09/16 |
| bearded hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| obsidian overrated base foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| Dashing Spot Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| Turquoise Balding Principal's Office | 11/09/16 |
| bronze provocative kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible heaven | 11/09/16 |
| Exciting slap-happy den regret | 11/09/16 |
| Yellow sweet tailpipe toaster | 11/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/09/16 |
| big snowy becky | 11/09/16 |
| Ivory Titillating School Cafeteria Fortuitous Meteor | 11/09/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/09/16 |
| Bull headed bateful athletic conference | 11/09/16 |
| Transparent wonderful mexican dopamine | 11/10/16 |
| opaque resort | 11/10/16 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 11/10/16 |
| Spectacular market roommate | 11/10/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/10/16 |
| Sticky cruise ship milk | 11/10/16 |
| Hideous pungent state | 11/10/16 |
| carmine stimulating persian | 11/14/16 |
| Green twinkling uncleanness toilet seat | 11/14/16 |
| stirring candlestick maker ape | 12/04/16 |
| Painfully Honest International Law Enforcement Agency Electric Furnace | 12/17/16 |
| Yapping hell | 10/11/24 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/25/16 |
| magenta legal warrant | 12/03/16 |
| sickened cerebral stain gunner | 12/04/16 |
| azure affirmative action corner | 12/07/16 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 12/07/16 |
| magenta legal warrant | 12/07/16 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/02/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 01/02/17 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/02/17 |
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| Dun Ceo Macaca | 03/03/20 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 01/02/17 |
| motley address bbw | 01/16/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 01/20/17 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/20/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 01/23/17 |
| geriatric son of senegal abode | 01/23/17 |
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| Vengeful Stag Film | 01/23/17 |
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| wild sable dragon faggotry | 01/25/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 01/26/17 |
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| wild sable dragon faggotry | 02/27/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 05/03/17 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/03/17 |
| wild sable dragon faggotry | 09/21/17 |
| Marvelous walnut corn cake | 01/23/17 |
| beta offensive community account | 02/27/17 |
| diverse henna rehab | 03/22/17 |
| electric sapphire main people | 04/17/17 |
| electric sapphire main people | 05/08/17 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 06/20/17 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 08/10/17 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 10/15/17 |
| motley address bbw | 10/15/17 |
| Maize Flatulent Lodge | 10/15/17 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/06/17 |
| sadistic doobsian home kitty cat | 11/06/17 |
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| scarlet drunken hospital hairy legs | 11/13/17 |
| motley address bbw | 12/18/17 |
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| Dun Ceo Macaca | 01/30/18 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 06/01/18 |
| electric sapphire main people | 07/18/18 |
| motley address bbw | 07/19/18 |
| Puce talented goal in life area | 09/20/18 |
| electric sapphire main people | 09/25/18 |
| Lime french chef | 10/06/18 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 10/06/18 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 10/25/18 |
| Flesh Comical Native Telephone | 10/25/18 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 11/05/18 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 11/05/18 |
| diverse henna rehab | 11/05/18 |
| irradiated step-uncle's house | 11/05/18 |
| electric sapphire main people | 01/08/19 |
| Territorial set filthpig | 02/23/19 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 03/13/19 |
| Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center | 06/24/19 |
| Aggressive nowag | 06/24/19 |
| electric sapphire main people | 11/18/19 |
| beta offensive community account | 02/12/20 |
| electric sapphire main people | 02/12/20 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 03/24/20 |
| Cerise Know-it-all Preventive Strike Institution | 03/24/20 |
| Avocado nursing home kitty | 04/04/20 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 04/26/20 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 05/13/20 |
| Avocado nursing home kitty | 06/05/20 |
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| Avocado nursing home kitty | 09/09/20 |
| beta offensive community account | 09/09/20 |
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| motley address bbw | 10/10/20 |
| newt | 10/22/20 |
| Turquoise Balding Principal's Office | 10/22/20 |
| cowardly temple sound barrier | 10/22/20 |
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| immigrant | 03/23/22 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 10/27/20 |
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| Aggressive nowag | 10/30/20 |
| motley address bbw | 11/03/20 |
| electric sapphire main people | 03/22/22 |
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| electric sapphire main people | 07/25/22 |
| Insecure tripping menage | 07/25/22 |
| electric sapphire main people | 10/23/22 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 11/16/22 |
| Dun Ceo Macaca | 04/25/23 |
| Concupiscible heaven | 04/25/23 |
| claret station psychic | 04/29/23 |
| Hateful passionate ladyboy whorehouse | 05/28/23 |
| electric sapphire main people | 02/22/24 |
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| electric sapphire main people | 08/26/24 |
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| electric sapphire main people | 11/06/24 |
| aphrodisiac wrinkle | 03/04/25 |
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| electric sapphire main people | 03/07/25 |
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| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: vermilion low-t hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: diverse henna rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Disgusting Alpha 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: haunting masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: maroon multi-colored blood rage dilemma "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Insecure tripping menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Lime french chef 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Marvelous walnut corn cake 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Bull headed bateful athletic conference Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: smoky mewling prole space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: blue locale FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Mind-boggling parlor Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Aquamarine patrolman trailer park Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Sick Pit Yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: gay travel guidebook Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: lake cumskin Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: galvanic chartreuse theater philosopher-king Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Mind-boggling parlor OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Mind-boggling parlor And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Laughsome disrespectful skinny woman fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: lemon nighttime plaza I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Submissive Theatre Partner 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Sepia tanning salon February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Soul-stirring slippery casino You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: self-absorbed ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29677869) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Trip Outnumbered Location Pistol Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: cowardly temple sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Nubile histrionic office This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Shimmering Cruel-hearted Old Irish Cottage Useless Brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Misanthropic mediation Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: electric sapphire main people Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: vibrant cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: diverse henna rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Transparent wonderful mexican dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: electric sapphire main people "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Fragrant national security agency 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: electric sapphire main people "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: electric sapphire main people One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: electric sapphire main people This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: galvanic chartreuse theater philosopher-king flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: vibrant cuckoldry From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: supple potus I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: supple potus Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Excitant hyperactive clown No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29531557) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Fragrant national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: electric sapphire main people “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Fragrant national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: vibrant cuckoldry http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Fragrant national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: vibrant cuckoldry looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#29677913) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: electric sapphire main people It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: electric sapphire main people "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: electric sapphire main people "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: electric sapphire main people http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: electric sapphire main people "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: coral boltzmann Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: coral boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31825048) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: electric sapphire main people The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: electric sapphire main people Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: aphrodisiac wrinkle Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30412976) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Concupiscible heaven This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30504223) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Avocado nursing home kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: bronze provocative kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Racy Azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: aromatic sanctuary hominid Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: glittery forum Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: arousing ruby parlour LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: angry shrine turdskin Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle locus September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Flesh Comical Native Telephone September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: beta offensive community account XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Puce talented goal in life area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: carmine stimulating persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: carmine stimulating persian The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: electric sapphire main people http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Mind-boggling parlor This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Vivacious stage puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Hateful passionate ladyboy whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: angry shrine turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: White gas station degenerate This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: cyan national place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: geriatric son of senegal abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Cream Fighting Pozpig Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: sickened cerebral stain gunner half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: glittery forum close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: bronze provocative kitchen Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: beta offensive community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Naked copper stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Submissive Theatre Partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Boyish Stead Pisswyrm You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Jade internet-worthy idiot boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: razzle light generalized bond orchestra pit Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: soggy cracking windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: carmine stimulating persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: abusive charcoal haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: silver famous landscape painting mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: beta offensive community account GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: abusive charcoal haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: glittery forum it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: aphrodisiac wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Turquoise Balding Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: costumed meetinghouse ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Painfully Honest International Law Enforcement Agency Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Yapping hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Crimson hot site digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: bearded hissy fit Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: obsidian overrated base foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Dashing Spot Lettuce 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Turquoise Balding Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: bronze provocative kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Concupiscible heaven this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Yellow sweet tailpipe toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: big snowy becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Ivory Titillating School Cafeteria Fortuitous Meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Bull headed bateful athletic conference you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Transparent wonderful mexican dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: opaque resort Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Spectacular market roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Sticky cruise ship milk ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Hideous pungent state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: carmine stimulating persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Green twinkling uncleanness toilet seat They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: stirring candlestick maker ape Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Painfully Honest International Law Enforcement Agency Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Yapping hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: magenta legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: sickened cerebral stain gunner GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: azure affirmative action corner https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: magenta legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: motley address bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: geriatric son of senegal abode TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Vengeful Stag Film I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: geriatric son of senegal abode it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: wild sable dragon faggotry https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Marvelous walnut corn cake this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: beta offensive community account One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#32714399) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: electric sapphire main people https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34449074) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: sadistic doobsian home kitty cat credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34615959) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: motley address bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Exciting slap-happy den regret Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: motley address bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: electric sapphire main people https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: motley address bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Puce talented goal in life area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: electric sapphire main people The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Lime french chef It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Flesh Comical Native Telephone Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: diverse henna rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: irradiated step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: electric sapphire main people What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Territorial set filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Mauve Talking Liquid Oxygen Center There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#38431500) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#39849854) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: cowardly temple sound barrier https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#41167053) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Dun Ceo Macaca https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Concupiscible heaven why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: claret station psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Hateful passionate ladyboy whorehouse FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#47428670) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: electric sapphire main people https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: claret station psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Insecure tripping menage One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: claret station psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Yapping hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: aphrodisiac wrinkle 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: aphrodisiac wrinkle https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Puce talented goal in life area Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Yapping hell The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Twisted embarrassed to the bone weed whacker circlehead He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48715869) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: electric sapphire main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Fishy associate 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: electric sapphire main people "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: flirting jew really tough guy Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: electric sapphire main people Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Marvelous walnut corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |