---

## 📉 Economic Effects & Growth

* **Real GDP growth** is estimated to be **0.5 to 0.9 percentage points lower in 2025**, depending on tariff scenarios.

➤ The U.S. economy is projected to be **0.4–0.6% smaller long‑term**, equivalent to about **\$110–135 billion annually**.

([The Budget Lab at Yale][1])

* **Unemployment** is forecast to rise by **0.3–0.5 percentage points**, with **500K+ jobs lost** by the end of the year.

([The Budget Lab at Yale][2], [The Budget Lab at Yale][3])

* Consumer **purchasing power declines** by \~\$2,000–3,800 per household in 2025 due to price increases.

([The Budget Lab at Yale][1], [The Budget Lab at Yale][4])

---

## 🧾 Inflation & Consumer Prices

* **Overall prices** up \~1.3–1.5% in the short term directly due to tariffs.

➤ Apparel and footwear prices have jumped **15–18% long term**, with shoes up **33% short term**.

([The Budget Lab at Yale][4])

* **Manufacturing input costs** are up **2–4.5%**, squeezing margins and dampening hiring.

➤ This includes steel, electronics, copper (50% tariff effect), auto parts, and appliances.

([apnews.com][5], [cbsnews.com][6])

---

## 🏭 Manufacturing: Winners & Losers

* **Output in non-advanced manufacturing** could rise by **\~2.0–2.6% long term**, especially for steel-intensive sectors.

➤ **Advanced manufacturing** declines by **\~2.8%** due to higher input costs and disrupted supply chains.

([The Budget Lab at Yale][2])

* According to the **San Francisco Fed**, tariffs could:

* Boost factory jobs locally, but

* **Reduce overall employment by \~0.2%, lower real income by \~0.4%** nationally over four years.

([Reuters][7])

---

## 🏛️ Federal Revenue & Fiscal Impact

* Federal tariff revenue for 2025 is projected at **\$150–170 billion**, or \~0.5–0.6% of GDP—**the largest tax hike since 1993**.

([taxfoundation.org][8])

* Long-term estimates suggest **\$3.9 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade**, though economic drag may reduce actual yields.

([piie.com][9])

---

## ⚠️ Business Uncertainty & Investment

* Firms are postponing major investments, delaying hiring, and **front-loading imports** to hedge against future tariff spikes.

([aljazeera.com][10])

* Legal challenges to emergency tariff authority (Section 232) continue, adding further business uncertainty.

([apnews.com][11])

---

## 🧑‍💼 Homeowner & Worker Impact

* Households face an **additional \$2,000–2,400 in costs in 2025**, especially low- to middle-income ones.

([gov.ca.gov][12])

* **Job losses and wage stagnation** in services and agriculture overshadow modest job gains in manufacturing.

([timesofindia.indiatimes.com][13])

---

### ✅ **Quick Summary**

| Metric | Impact Summary |

| ---------------------------- | --------------------------------------------- |

| Real GDP | –0.5% to –0.9% growth; long-run economy –0.4% |

| Unemployment | +0.3–0.5% → \~500K fewer jobs |

| Household Purchasing Power | –\$2K to \$3.8K in lost disposable income |

| Manufacturing Output | Non‑advanced ↑ \~2–2.6%, advanced ↓ \~2.8% |

| Federal Revenue from Tariffs | \~\$150–170B in 2025 (+0.5–0.6% of GDP) |

| Consumer Price Inflation | +1.3% to 1.5%; apparel ↑ 15–18% |

---

### 🚧 Bottom Line:

While manufactured output in some sectors may see a modest boost, the **broader U.S. economy is suffering**: **slower growth, higher inflation, weaker employment**, and **squeezed household budgets**.

* [TIME](https://dev.time.com/7283407/tpe-10716-scrolling-glitch-on-trump-tariffs-tracker-article/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-tariffs-would-lift-us-factory-jobs-cut-overall-income-san-francisco-fed-2025-07-14/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

* [ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-946f-70263adbaeb7?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

[1]: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april?utm_source=chatgpt.com "The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs ..."

[2]: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-july-30-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com "State of U.S. Tariffs: July 30, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale"

[3]: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-july-7-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com "State of U.S. Tariffs: July 7, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale"

[4]: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-june-17-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com "State of U.S. Tariffs: June 17, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale"

[5]: https://apnews.com/article/4c928842b57c7f36db9d5ca26a84108b?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump's tariffs could squeeze US factories and boost costs by up to 4.5%, a new analysis finds"

[6]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-copper-tariff-price/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump's 50% copper tariff could raise the cost of appliances, EVs ..."

[7]: https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-tariffs-would-lift-us-factory-jobs-cut-overall-income-san-francisco-fed-2025-07-14/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump tariffs would lift US factory jobs, cut overall income, San Francisco Fed says"

[8]: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War"

[9]: https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs?utm_source=chatgpt.com "The US revenue implications of President Trump's 2025 tariffs | PIIE"

[10]: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/7/31/what-has-been-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs-so-far?utm_source=chatgpt.com "What has been the impact of Trump’s tariffs so far?"

[11]: https://apnews.com/article/05bc12428163b9f28ef80f952cf9dafd?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump injects new dose of uncertainty in tariffs as he pushes start date back to Aug. 7"

[12]: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/07/30/trump-tariff-policy-continues-to-cause-chaos-in-american-economy/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump tariff policy continues to cause chaos in American economy"

[13]: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-impact-donald-trumps-new-import-duties-could-push-us-factory-costs-up-to-4-5-economists-warn-flag-risks-to-jobs-ai-growth-and-margins/articleshow/122975868.cms?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Tariff impact: Donald Trump's new import duties could push US factory costs up to 4.5%, economists warn; flag risks to jobs, AI growth and margins"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5756992&forum_id=2...id#49148055)