An asteroid discovered last year and briefly thought to be a threat to Earth has a one-in-23 chance of hitting the Moon, according to NASA estimates based on JWST data. A new paper outlines how this could be a spectacular one-in-5,000-year event, potentially ejecting material towards Earth.
“The way that the orbit improved made the position move away from the Earth, but it moved toward the Moon. So there's like almost a 4 percent chance it's going to hit the Moon. That means there's a better than 96 percent chance it's going to miss the Moon, but if it did hit the Moon, it really would be pretty spectacular!”