The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/10/15 |
| Impertinent Demanding Dilemma | 12/12/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/02/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 01/06/16 |
| Arousing abode | 01/06/16 |
| Arousing abode | 06/05/16 |
| Charismatic theater stage mad-dog skullcap | 03/26/16 |
| soul-stirring irate school cafeteria nibblets | 01/02/17 |
| cyan filthpig pocket flask | 10/25/18 |
| histrionic flesh hall | 12/10/15 |
| coiffed kitty cat | 12/10/15 |
| Submissive cumskin hospital | 12/10/15 |
| Self-absorbed home puppy | 12/10/15 |
| learning disabled nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| Pearly Tanning Salon Black Woman | 12/10/15 |
| Contagious flushed church building hunting ground | 12/10/15 |
| diverse house idea he suggested | 12/10/15 |
| irradiated ruby school | 12/11/15 |
| Amethyst sandwich | 12/12/15 |
| Vigorous gold native selfie | 12/16/15 |
| excitant goyim stead | 01/04/16 |
| swashbuckling meetinghouse | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/11/15 |
| Exciting bat-shit-crazy ladyboy kitty | 12/11/15 |
| 180 indian lodge | 12/11/15 |
| irradiated ruby school | 12/11/15 |
| Thriller Violent Sex Offender | 12/12/15 |
| Dull point | 01/25/16 |
| Crimson queen of the night generalized bond | 11/10/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/12/15 |
| federal fantasy-prone goal in life | 12/12/15 |
| comical box office | 12/12/15 |
| Sable fear-inspiring sound barrier | 12/12/15 |
| Walnut appetizing cruise ship dysfunction | 12/15/15 |
| flickering dashing plaza gay wizard | 12/21/15 |
| Disturbing Pale Church | 12/12/15 |
| Topaz fanboi | 12/12/15 |
| Talented Boltzmann | 12/12/15 |
| startled motley pit organic girlfriend | 12/12/15 |
| well-lubricated adventurous piazza karate | 12/12/15 |
| Laughsome bronze masturbator brunch | 12/12/15 |
| Contagious flushed church building hunting ground | 12/15/15 |
| Contagious flushed church building hunting ground | 12/16/15 |
| floppy multi-billionaire hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Sapphire slippery antidepressant drug | 12/15/15 |
| Orchid indirect expression milk | 12/15/15 |
| Maniacal wine keepsake machete parlour | 12/15/15 |
| Zippy Knife Theater | 12/15/15 |
| Fuchsia curious immigrant | 12/15/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| shaky shrine | 01/05/16 |
| Dull point | 01/25/16 |
| Tan resort | 12/17/16 |
| hairraiser chartreuse chapel twinkling uncleanness | 05/18/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 08/12/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 11/09/16 |
| razzle bawdyhouse tank | 11/09/16 |
| unhinged copper people who are hurt | 10/22/20 |
| boyish heaven sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| Outnumbered stage | 12/16/15 |
| ruddy razzmatazz locus | 12/16/15 |
| cowardly dark main people | 12/16/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/16/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/17/15 |
| Misunderstood odious dingle berry | 12/18/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 01/06/16 |
| concupiscible pisswyrm space | 12/18/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/21/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/21/15 |
| flickering dashing plaza gay wizard | 12/21/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/30/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 12/30/15 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/04/16 |
| excitant goyim stead | 01/04/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/05/16 |
| Dull point | 01/25/16 |
| Misunderstood odious dingle berry | 01/05/16 |
| trip opaque quadroon dragon | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Sadistic Library | 01/05/16 |
| mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces | 01/05/16 |
| Azure Bisexual Elastic Band Lay | 01/05/16 |
| mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces | 01/05/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 01/06/16 |
| mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces | 01/06/16 |
| Azure Bisexual Elastic Band Lay | 01/05/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 01/06/16 |
| flickering dashing plaza gay wizard | 01/07/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/08/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 01/08/16 |
| flickering dashing plaza gay wizard | 01/08/16 |
| Misunderstood odious dingle berry | 01/09/16 |
| flickering dashing plaza gay wizard | 01/10/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/18/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/19/16 |
| Misunderstood odious dingle berry | 01/21/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/25/16 |
| Hyperactive Snowy Son Of Senegal Roast Beef | 01/25/16 |
| Dull point | 01/25/16 |
| Hyperactive Snowy Son Of Senegal Roast Beef | 02/09/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 09/06/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 11/05/18 |
| Twinkling university | 01/29/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 02/01/16 |
| Aromatic Menage Ceo | 02/01/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 02/01/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 02/07/16 |
| trip opaque quadroon dragon | 02/09/16 |
| stimulating adulterous bbw | 02/09/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 02/20/16 |
| Bateful Ticket Booth Boistinker | 02/20/16 |
| hairraiser chartreuse chapel twinkling uncleanness | 02/24/16 |
| passionate senate death wish | 02/24/16 |
| Fluffy Telephone | 02/27/16 |
| floppy multi-billionaire hissy fit | 03/09/16 |
| Henna electric furnace sanctuary | 03/15/16 |
| Submissive cumskin hospital | 03/15/16 |
| Sapphire slippery antidepressant drug | 03/16/16 |
| Alcoholic Racy Site Gunner | 02/24/16 |
| Fragrant glassy hairy legs digit ratio | 02/24/16 |
| Sapphire slippery antidepressant drug | 07/21/16 |
| Bistre spot police squad | 02/24/16 |
| Submissive cumskin hospital | 02/27/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/02/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/04/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/09/16 |
| trip opaque quadroon dragon | 03/09/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/15/16 |
| hairraiser chartreuse chapel twinkling uncleanness | 03/15/16 |
| violent trailer park | 03/15/16 |
| cerebral locale | 03/15/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/16/16 |
| Contagious flushed church building hunting ground | 03/16/16 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 03/23/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/23/16 |
| Talented Boltzmann | 03/26/16 |
| Narrow-minded office ratface | 03/26/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/26/16 |
| shaky shrine | 03/28/16 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 03/28/16 |
| coiffed kitty cat | 03/28/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 08/12/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 11/05/18 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/28/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/29/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 03/29/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 03/29/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/29/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/29/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/01/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/04/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 04/15/16 |
| onyx nubile idiot | 04/15/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/19/16 |
| chestnut zombie-like public bath | 04/20/16 |
| Titillating Ebony Circlehead | 04/20/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/24/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/25/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/26/16 |
| Milky Out-of-control Station | 04/26/16 |
| Bat shit crazy nowag | 04/30/16 |
| Turquoise Cocky Garrison | 05/01/16 |
| Turquoise Cocky Garrison | 11/07/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/02/16 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 05/02/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/03/16 |
| Cream cracking market | 05/03/16 |
| brass heady macaca | 05/03/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/04/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 05/04/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/05/16 |
| startled motley pit organic girlfriend | 05/05/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 05/05/16 |
| Fragrant glassy hairy legs digit ratio | 05/05/16 |
| federal fantasy-prone goal in life | 05/18/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/18/16 |
| hairraiser chartreuse chapel twinkling uncleanness | 05/18/16 |
| federal fantasy-prone goal in life | 05/18/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 05/29/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 06/20/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 06/29/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/14/16 |
| Crawly State Persian | 07/15/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 07/15/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/17/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 07/17/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/21/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/22/16 |
| french useless community account potus | 07/22/16 |
| Big buff crackhouse | 07/23/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/24/16 |
| Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area | 07/25/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 07/25/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 07/27/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 08/05/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 08/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 08/12/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 08/12/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 08/12/16 |
| haunting crystalline turdskin dog poop | 08/12/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 08/30/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 08/30/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 09/06/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 09/13/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 09/14/16 |
| Disturbing Pale Church | 09/14/16 |
| Sticky famous landscape painting | 09/15/16 |
| clear orchestra pit | 09/15/16 |
| Arousing abode | 09/15/16 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 09/15/16 |
| lake therapy jap | 09/15/16 |
| jade galvanic half-breed | 09/19/16 |
| jade galvanic half-breed | 09/19/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 09/27/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 09/24/16 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 09/27/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 09/27/16 |
| Contagious flushed church building hunting ground | 09/27/16 |
| Underhanded frisky hell | 10/08/16 |
| wonderful maroon useless brakes | 07/29/24 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 09/28/16 |
| Disturbing Pale Church | 09/28/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 09/28/16 |
| Titillating Ebony Circlehead | 09/28/16 |
| onyx nubile idiot | 09/28/16 |
| Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund | 10/08/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 10/09/16 |
| stirring umber round eye den | 10/09/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 10/09/16 |
| violet vivacious jewess | 10/09/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 10/10/16 |
| Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area | 10/30/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 11/01/16 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 11/01/16 |
| mauve marvelous alpha | 11/02/16 |
| Maniacal wine keepsake machete parlour | 11/02/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 11/07/16 |
| shimmering field | 11/08/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 11/08/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/08/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 11/08/16 |
| spectacular aggressive national faggotry | 11/08/16 |
| Supple Canary Coffee Pot Incel | 11/08/16 |
| Aromatic Menage Ceo | 11/08/16 |
| jade galvanic half-breed | 11/08/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/08/16 |
| Fishy glittery principal's office deer antler | 11/09/16 |
| Sticky famous landscape painting | 11/09/16 |
| Salmon infuriating forum | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 11/09/16 |
| Fishy glittery principal's office deer antler | 11/09/16 |
| Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area | 11/09/16 |
| startled motley pit organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| olive tattoo really tough guy | 12/03/16 |
| Crimson queen of the night generalized bond | 12/07/16 |
| Tan resort | 12/17/16 |
| costumed bright boiling water location | 10/11/24 |
| Multi-colored smoky gas station | 11/09/16 |
| Electric vengeful mental disorder | 11/09/16 |
| twisted mexican | 11/09/16 |
| massive casino | 11/09/16 |
| olive tattoo really tough guy | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling institution | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| federal fantasy-prone goal in life | 11/09/16 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 11/09/16 |
| business firm | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| lime bipolar french chef | 11/09/16 |
| brilliant base blood rage | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| Self-absorbed home puppy | 11/09/16 |
| concupiscible pisswyrm space | 11/10/16 |
| Hyperactive Snowy Son Of Senegal Roast Beef | 11/10/16 |
| Arousing abode | 11/10/16 |
| peach wagecucks | 11/10/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/10/16 |
| Provocative Double Fault | 11/10/16 |
| Bateful Ticket Booth Boistinker | 11/10/16 |
| jade galvanic half-breed | 11/14/16 |
| ocher codepig lodge | 11/14/16 |
| rusted pozpig | 12/04/16 |
| Tan resort | 12/17/16 |
| costumed bright boiling water location | 10/11/24 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/25/16 |
| citrine range volcanic crater | 12/03/16 |
| violet vivacious jewess | 12/04/16 |
| Lavender parlor yarmulke | 12/07/16 |
| Arousing abode | 12/07/16 |
| citrine range volcanic crater | 12/07/16 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/02/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/02/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/02/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/02/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 03/03/20 |
| Arousing abode | 01/02/17 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 01/16/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/20/17 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/20/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/23/17 |
| Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund | 01/23/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/23/17 |
| Burgundy chad | 01/23/17 |
| Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund | 01/23/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/23/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/25/17 |
| cerise azn | 01/26/17 |
| cerise azn | 02/06/17 |
| cerise azn | 02/13/17 |
| cerise azn | 02/27/17 |
| cerise azn | 05/03/17 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/03/17 |
| cerise azn | 09/21/17 |
| Submissive cumskin hospital | 01/23/17 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 02/27/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 03/22/17 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 04/17/17 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/08/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 06/20/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 08/10/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 10/15/17 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 10/15/17 |
| Dun New Version Rehab | 10/15/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/06/17 |
| soggy step-uncle's house place of business | 11/06/17 |
| Kitchen Cuckoldry | 11/08/17 |
| whorehouse haunted graveyard | 11/08/17 |
| Anal Drab Brethren | 11/13/17 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 12/18/17 |
| Transparent Address Gaming Laptop | 12/18/17 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 12/18/17 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 01/30/18 |
| Arousing abode | 06/01/18 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/18/18 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 07/19/18 |
| lake therapy jap | 09/20/18 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 09/25/18 |
| coiffed kitty cat | 10/06/18 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 10/06/18 |
| Arousing abode | 10/25/18 |
| clear orchestra pit | 10/25/18 |
| Dull point | 11/05/18 |
| Arousing abode | 11/05/18 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 11/05/18 |
| Arousing abode | 11/05/18 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 01/08/19 |
| magenta bull headed set corn cake | 02/23/19 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 03/13/19 |
| Dull point | 06/24/19 |
| theatre | 06/24/19 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 11/18/19 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 02/12/20 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 02/12/20 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 03/24/20 |
| Filthy mother property | 03/24/20 |
| Crawly State Persian | 04/04/20 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 04/26/20 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 05/13/20 |
| Crawly State Persian | 06/05/20 |
| up-to-no-good very tactful | 06/05/20 |
| Crawly State Persian | 09/09/20 |
| Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor | 09/09/20 |
| histrionic flesh hall | 09/09/20 |
| international law enforcement agency | 09/12/20 |
| Naked Personal Credit Line | 09/24/20 |
| theatre | 10/09/20 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 10/10/20 |
| legend | 10/22/20 |
| olive tattoo really tough guy | 10/22/20 |
| unhinged copper people who are hurt | 10/22/20 |
| unhinged copper people who are hurt | 10/22/20 |
| black crotch | 03/23/22 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 10/27/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film | 10/27/20 |
| theatre | 10/30/20 |
| Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan | 11/03/20 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/22/22 |
| carnelian apoplectic stock car | 03/23/22 |
| 03/23/22 |
| Sienna Doctorate Clown | 03/23/22 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 07/25/22 |
| histrionic flesh hall | 07/25/22 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 10/23/22 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 11/16/22 |
| Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams | 04/25/23 |
| federal fantasy-prone goal in life | 04/25/23 |
| Naked Personal Credit Line | 04/29/23 |
| wonderful maroon useless brakes | 05/28/23 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 02/22/24 |
| Naked Personal Credit Line | 02/23/24 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 05/23/24 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 08/26/24 |
| Naked Personal Credit Line | 09/13/24 |
| histrionic flesh hall | 09/13/24 |
| Naked Personal Credit Line | 10/18/24 |
| costumed bright boiling water location | 10/11/24 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 11/06/24 |
| startled motley pit organic girlfriend | 03/04/25 |
| startled motley pit organic girlfriend | 03/04/25 |
| lake therapy jap | 03/04/25 |
| costumed bright boiling water location | 03/04/25 |
| claret | 03/04/25 |
| Swollen Partner | 03/05/25 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/07/25 |
| avocado flirting internal respiration | 03/07/25 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/08/25 |
| Grizzly trump supporter | 03/08/25 |
| maize fighting center toaster | 03/08/25 |
| Submissive cumskin hospital | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Impertinent Demanding Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Arousing abode another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Charismatic theater stage mad-dog skullcap 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: soul-stirring irate school cafeteria nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: cyan filthpig pocket flask "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: histrionic flesh hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Pearly Tanning Salon Black Woman FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Contagious flushed church building hunting ground Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: diverse house idea he suggested Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: irradiated ruby school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Amethyst sandwich Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Vigorous gold native selfie Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: excitant goyim stead Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: swashbuckling meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854764) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Sable fear-inspiring sound barrier March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: well-lubricated adventurous piazza karate Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Laughsome bronze masturbator brunch Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Contagious flushed church building hunting ground OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Contagious flushed church building hunting ground And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: floppy multi-billionaire hissy fit 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Sapphire slippery antidepressant drug fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Orchid indirect expression milk I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Maniacal wine keepsake machete parlour 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Zippy Knife Theater February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Fuchsia curious immigrant You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384262) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Dull point Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677869) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: razzle bawdyhouse tank Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: unhinged copper people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: boyish heaven sweet tailpipe This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: cowardly dark main people Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Misunderstood odious dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: concupiscible pisswyrm space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: flickering dashing plaza gay wizard 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: excitant goyim stead flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Dull point Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Misunderstood odious dingle berry From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Sadistic Library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: mentally impaired know-it-all stage feces Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Azure Bisexual Elastic Band Lay No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Mind-boggling institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: flickering dashing plaza gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: flickering dashing plaza gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Misunderstood odious dingle berry http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: flickering dashing plaza gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Misunderstood odious dingle berry looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Provocative Double Fault "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Turquoise Cocky Garrison Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Turquoise Cocky Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: startled motley pit organic girlfriend Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Fragrant glassy hairy legs digit ratio Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: federal fantasy-prone goal in life This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: hairraiser chartreuse chapel twinkling uncleanness In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: federal fantasy-prone goal in life cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Crawly State Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Mind-boggling institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: french useless community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Big buff crackhouse Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Provocative Double Fault amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: haunting crystalline turdskin dog poop LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Disturbing Pale Church Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Sticky famous landscape painting September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: clear orchestra pit September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Arousing abode god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: lake therapy jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: jade galvanic half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: jade galvanic half-breed The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Contagious flushed church building hunting ground This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Underhanded frisky hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: wonderful maroon useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Disturbing Pale Church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Titillating Ebony Circlehead This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: onyx nubile idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: stirring umber round eye den Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: violet vivacious jewess half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Mind-boggling institution Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: mauve marvelous alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Maniacal wine keepsake machete parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Provocative Double Fault prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: shimmering field You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Provocative Double Fault ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: spectacular aggressive national faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Supple Canary Coffee Pot Incel Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Aromatic Menage Ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: jade galvanic half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Fishy glittery principal's office deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Sticky famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Salmon infuriating forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Fishy glittery principal's office deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Vibrant primrose scourge upon the earth area it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: startled motley pit organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: olive tattoo really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Crimson queen of the night generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Tan resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: costumed bright boiling water location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Multi-colored smoky gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Electric vengeful mental disorder Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: twisted mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: massive casino 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: olive tattoo really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Mind-boggling institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: federal fantasy-prone goal in life this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: lime bipolar french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: brilliant base blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Self-absorbed home puppy you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: concupiscible pisswyrm space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Hyperactive Snowy Son Of Senegal Roast Beef Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Arousing abode bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: peach wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Provocative Double Fault ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Bateful Ticket Booth Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: jade galvanic half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: ocher codepig lodge They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: rusted pozpig Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Tan resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: costumed bright boiling water location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: citrine range volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: violet vivacious jewess GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lavender parlor yarmulke https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: citrine range volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: cerise azn October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: cerise azn ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Arousing abode truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: cerise azn http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: cerise azn It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Burgundy chad I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Exhilarant saffron hominid trust fund it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: cerise azn The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: cerise azn https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Submissive cumskin hospital this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Dun New Version Rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: soggy step-uncle's house place of business credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Kitchen Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: whorehouse haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Anal Drab Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Transparent Address Gaming Laptop Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: lake therapy jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: coiffed kitty cat It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: clear orchestra pit Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Dull point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Arousing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: magenta bull headed set corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Dull point There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Filthy mother property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Crawly State Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Crawly State Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: up-to-no-good very tactful (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Crawly State Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Mustard Unholy Fortuitous Meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: histrionic flesh hall Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Naked Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: olive tattoo really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: unhinged copper people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: unhinged copper people who are hurt https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: black crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle stubborn love of her life stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Misanthropic Lascivious Temple Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: carnelian apoplectic stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Sienna Doctorate Clown 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: histrionic flesh hall A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Beady-eyed alcoholic corner laser beams https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: federal fantasy-prone goal in life why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Naked Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: wonderful maroon useless brakes FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Naked Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Naked Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: histrionic flesh hall One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Naked Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: costumed bright boiling water location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: startled motley pit organic girlfriend 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: startled motley pit organic girlfriend https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: lake therapy jap Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: costumed bright boiling water location The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: claret He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Swollen Partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: avocado flirting internal respiration 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: maize fighting center toaster "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Grizzly trump supporter Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: maize fighting center toaster Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Submissive cumskin hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#49679495) |