The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/10/15 |
| Turquoise Sex Offender | 12/12/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/02/17 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 01/06/16 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 06/05/16 |
| copper bespoke lay skinny woman | 03/26/16 |
| purple whorehouse | 01/02/17 |
| frum wagecucks filthpig | 10/25/18 |
| transparent diverse stead stain | 12/10/15 |
| Supple khaki half-breed | 12/10/15 |
| cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film | 12/10/15 |
| Canary generalized bond | 12/10/15 |
| motley claret goyim house | 12/15/15 |
| Learning disabled zombie-like meetinghouse | 12/10/15 |
| elite church | 12/10/15 |
| Abnormal rigpig | 12/10/15 |
| Lime submissive brethren keepsake machete | 12/11/15 |
| Maize know-it-all nibblets | 12/12/15 |
| titillating toilet seat | 12/16/15 |
| salmon comical love of her life | 01/04/16 |
| Mustard painfully honest bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/11/15 |
| Stirring public bath organic girlfriend | 12/11/15 |
| filthy stage puppy | 12/11/15 |
| Lime submissive brethren keepsake machete | 12/11/15 |
| Topaz Bateful Pocket Flask Haunted Graveyard | 12/12/15 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 01/25/16 |
| Trip buck-toothed field sweet tailpipe | 11/10/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/12/15 |
| razzmatazz shimmering university | 12/12/15 |
| Exciting fortuitous meteor | 12/12/15 |
| Bearded Odious Hall | 12/12/15 |
| adventurous hilarious tank home | 12/15/15 |
| Silver vibrant headpube | 12/21/15 |
| Electric tantric national | 12/12/15 |
| galvanic naked brunch | 12/12/15 |
| garnet abode | 12/12/15 |
| Abusive contagious indian lodge | 12/12/15 |
| Wine Talented Kitty | 12/12/15 |
| Chartreuse rehab | 12/12/15 |
| elite church | 12/15/15 |
| elite church | 12/16/15 |
| Deranged Racy Double Fault | 12/15/15 |
| Massive property | 12/15/15 |
| Sable beta immigrant | 12/15/15 |
| Aromatic Site French Chef | 12/15/15 |
| hideous magenta cuckoldry | 12/15/15 |
| black cracking shrine party of the first part | 12/15/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| Ocher hateful garrison | 01/05/16 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 01/25/16 |
| beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band | 12/17/16 |
| Cerebral Church Building Bbw | 05/18/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 08/12/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| light goal in life station | 11/09/16 |
| pink boiling water business firm | 11/09/16 |
| Anal kitchen | 10/22/20 |
| Dark Hospital | 12/15/15 |
| Yapping spruce center travel guidebook | 12/16/15 |
| Razzle corner | 12/16/15 |
| Impertinent parlour dingle berry | 12/16/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/16/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/17/15 |
| umber cruise ship | 12/18/15 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| vermilion nubile lodge boistinker | 12/18/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/21/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/21/15 |
| Silver vibrant headpube | 12/21/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/30/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 12/30/15 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/04/16 |
| salmon comical love of her life | 01/04/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/05/16 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 01/25/16 |
| umber cruise ship | 01/05/16 |
| Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration | 01/05/16 |
| Brindle marvelous menage | 01/05/16 |
| Sickened indigo hissy fit | 01/05/16 |
| heady hell candlestick maker | 01/05/16 |
| Sickened indigo hissy fit | 01/05/16 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| Sickened indigo hissy fit | 01/06/16 |
| heady hell candlestick maker | 01/05/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 01/06/16 |
| Silver vibrant headpube | 01/07/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/08/16 |
| flatulent pit | 01/08/16 |
| Silver vibrant headpube | 01/08/16 |
| umber cruise ship | 01/09/16 |
| Silver vibrant headpube | 01/10/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/18/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/19/16 |
| umber cruise ship | 01/21/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/25/16 |
| Charismatic insane ape locus | 01/25/16 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 01/25/16 |
| Charismatic insane ape locus | 02/09/16 |
| flatulent pit | 09/06/16 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| Multi-colored Lemon Circlehead Step-uncle's House | 01/29/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 02/01/16 |
| 180 clown | 02/01/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 02/01/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 02/07/16 |
| Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration | 02/09/16 |
| Curious Crackhouse | 02/09/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 02/20/16 |
| Effete ticket booth partner | 02/20/16 |
| Cerebral Church Building Bbw | 02/24/16 |
| greedy boyish forum jap | 02/24/16 |
| Concupiscible native mediation | 02/27/16 |
| Deranged Racy Double Fault | 03/09/16 |
| dead laser beams | 03/15/16 |
| cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film | 03/15/16 |
| Massive property | 03/16/16 |
| Nudist Ivory Boltzmann Principal's Office | 02/24/16 |
| Bistre knife | 02/24/16 |
| Massive property | 07/21/16 |
| avocado sick base hunting ground | 02/24/16 |
| cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film | 02/27/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/02/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/04/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/09/16 |
| Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration | 03/09/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/15/16 |
| Cerebral Church Building Bbw | 03/15/16 |
| Vivacious Parlor | 03/15/16 |
| Pearl legal warrant chad | 03/15/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/16/16 |
| elite church | 03/16/16 |
| light goal in life station | 03/23/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/23/16 |
| garnet abode | 03/26/16 |
| stimulating cumskin | 03/26/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/26/16 |
| Ocher hateful garrison | 03/28/16 |
| light goal in life station | 03/28/16 |
| Supple khaki half-breed | 03/28/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 08/12/16 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/28/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/29/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 03/29/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 03/29/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/29/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/29/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/01/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/04/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 04/15/16 |
| bronze house-broken orchestra pit deer antler | 04/15/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/19/16 |
| mahogany harsh dopamine ceo | 04/20/16 |
| medicated razzle-dazzle set personal credit line | 04/20/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/24/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/25/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/26/16 |
| Azure spectacular affirmative action | 04/26/16 |
| cream dog poop | 04/30/16 |
| Cyan Tattoo Sandwich | 05/01/16 |
| Cyan Tattoo Sandwich | 11/07/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/02/16 |
| light goal in life station | 05/02/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/03/16 |
| Obsidian excitant gaming laptop police squad | 05/03/16 |
| floppy famous landscape painting tanning salon | 05/03/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/04/16 |
| flatulent pit | 05/04/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/05/16 |
| Abusive contagious indian lodge | 05/05/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 05/05/16 |
| Bistre knife | 05/05/16 |
| razzmatazz shimmering university | 05/18/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/18/16 |
| Cerebral Church Building Bbw | 05/18/16 |
| razzmatazz shimmering university | 05/18/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 05/29/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 06/20/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 06/29/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/14/16 |
| Mewling space nowag | 07/15/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 07/15/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/17/16 |
| flatulent pit | 07/17/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/21/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/22/16 |
| Fishy wonderful spot selfie | 07/22/16 |
| self-absorbed temple | 07/23/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/24/16 |
| vigorous clear school philosopher-king | 07/25/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 07/25/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 07/27/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 08/05/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 08/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 08/12/16 |
| flatulent pit | 08/12/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 08/12/16 |
| translucent thriller office | 08/12/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 08/30/16 |
| flatulent pit | 08/30/16 |
| flatulent pit | 09/06/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 09/13/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 09/14/16 |
| Electric tantric national | 09/14/16 |
| nighttime rose dilemma persian | 09/15/16 |
| carnelian costumed market | 09/15/16 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 09/15/16 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 09/15/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin | 09/15/16 |
| fragrant shivering resort | 09/19/16 |
| fragrant shivering resort | 09/19/16 |
| flatulent pit | 09/27/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 09/24/16 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 09/27/16 |
| flatulent pit | 09/27/16 |
| elite church | 09/27/16 |
| Frisky digit ratio karate | 10/08/16 |
| glittery jade nursing home | 07/29/24 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 09/28/16 |
| Electric tantric national | 09/28/16 |
| flatulent pit | 09/28/16 |
| medicated razzle-dazzle set personal credit line | 09/28/16 |
| bronze house-broken orchestra pit deer antler | 09/28/16 |
| irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness | 10/08/16 |
| flatulent pit | 10/09/16 |
| Passionate point | 10/09/16 |
| flatulent pit | 10/09/16 |
| Mint metal library | 10/09/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 10/10/16 |
| vigorous clear school philosopher-king | 10/30/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 11/01/16 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 11/01/16 |
| Mentally impaired cordovan institution | 11/02/16 |
| Aromatic Site French Chef | 11/02/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 11/07/16 |
| Appetizing Cerise Den | 11/08/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 11/08/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 11/08/16 |
| Henna theater | 11/08/16 |
| up-to-no-good hairraiser macaca | 11/08/16 |
| 180 clown | 11/08/16 |
| fragrant shivering resort | 11/08/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| onyx antidepressant drug theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| nighttime rose dilemma persian | 11/09/16 |
| Laughsome Crystalline People Who Are Hurt | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| onyx antidepressant drug theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| vigorous clear school philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| Abusive contagious indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression | 12/03/16 |
| Trip buck-toothed field sweet tailpipe | 12/07/16 |
| beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band | 12/17/16 |
| soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area | 10/11/24 |
| Provocative therapy | 11/09/16 |
| Talking Friendly Grandma | 11/09/16 |
| maniacal mind-boggling corn cake black woman | 11/09/16 |
| vengeful sanctuary faggotry | 11/09/16 |
| Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Pungent Piazza Pistol | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| razzmatazz shimmering university | 11/09/16 |
| flatulent pit | 11/09/16 |
| dashing ebony foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| swashbuckling kink-friendly plaza | 11/09/16 |
| arousing disgusting range | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| Canary generalized bond | 11/09/16 |
| vermilion nubile lodge boistinker | 11/10/16 |
| Charismatic insane ape locus | 11/10/16 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 11/10/16 |
| olive big associate heaven | 11/10/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/10/16 |
| Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address | 11/10/16 |
| Effete ticket booth partner | 11/10/16 |
| fragrant shivering resort | 11/14/16 |
| Lascivious Senate Incel | 11/14/16 |
| jet patrolman | 12/04/16 |
| beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band | 12/17/16 |
| soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area | 10/11/24 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/25/16 |
| depressive | 12/03/16 |
| Mint metal library | 12/04/16 |
| State | 12/07/16 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 12/07/16 |
| depressive | 12/07/16 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/02/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/02/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/02/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/02/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 03/03/20 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 01/02/17 |
| light goal in life station | 01/16/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/20/17 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/20/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/23/17 |
| irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness | 01/23/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/23/17 |
| aggressive gas station gaping | 01/23/17 |
| irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness | 01/23/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/23/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/25/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 01/26/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 02/06/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 02/13/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 02/27/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 05/03/17 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/03/17 |
| Tripping Magical Locale | 09/21/17 |
| cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film | 01/23/17 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 02/27/17 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 03/22/17 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 04/17/17 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/08/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 06/20/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 08/10/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 10/15/17 |
| light goal in life station | 10/15/17 |
| hyperactive school cafeteria sneaky criminal | 10/15/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/06/17 |
| Big-titted | 11/06/17 |
| Charcoal | 11/08/17 |
| 11/08/17 |
| splenetic genital piercing | 11/13/17 |
| light goal in life station | 12/18/17 |
| flatulent pit | 12/18/17 |
| light goal in life station | 12/18/17 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 01/30/18 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 06/01/18 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/18/18 |
| light goal in life station | 07/19/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin | 09/20/18 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 09/25/18 |
| Supple khaki half-breed | 10/06/18 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 10/06/18 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 10/25/18 |
| carnelian costumed market | 10/25/18 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 11/05/18 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 11/05/18 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe | 11/05/18 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 01/08/19 |
| mad-dog skullcap | 02/23/19 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 03/13/19 |
| White exhilarant trailer park milk | 06/24/19 |
| stubborn stock car | 06/24/19 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 11/18/19 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 02/12/20 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 02/12/20 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 03/24/20 |
| liquid oxygen | 03/24/20 |
| Mewling space nowag | 04/04/20 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 04/26/20 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 05/13/20 |
| Mewling space nowag | 06/05/20 |
| place of business | 06/05/20 |
| Mewling space nowag | 09/09/20 |
| brilliant water buffalo fanboi | 09/09/20 |
| transparent diverse stead stain | 09/09/20 |
| jew | 09/12/20 |
| blathering | 09/24/20 |
| stubborn stock car | 10/09/20 |
| light goal in life station | 10/10/20 |
| flickering blood rage | 10/22/20 |
| Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression | 10/22/20 |
| Anal kitchen | 10/22/20 |
| Anal kitchen | 10/22/20 |
| fiercely-loyal new version | 03/23/22 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 10/27/20 |
| Histrionic Confused Box Office | 10/27/20 |
| stubborn stock car | 10/30/20 |
| light goal in life station | 11/03/20 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/22/22 |
| fuchsia | 03/23/22 |
| Walnut weed whacker | 03/23/22 |
| electric furnace | 03/23/22 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 07/25/22 |
| transparent diverse stead stain | 07/25/22 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 10/23/22 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 11/16/22 |
| Doobsian Location Lettuce | 04/25/23 |
| razzmatazz shimmering university | 04/25/23 |
| blathering | 04/29/23 |
| glittery jade nursing home | 05/28/23 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 02/22/24 |
| blathering | 02/23/24 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/23/24 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 08/26/24 |
| blathering | 09/13/24 |
| transparent diverse stead stain | 09/13/24 |
| blathering | 10/18/24 |
| soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area | 10/11/24 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 11/06/24 |
| Abusive contagious indian lodge | 03/04/25 |
| Abusive contagious indian lodge | 03/04/25 |
| Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin | 03/04/25 |
| soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area | 03/04/25 |
| faggot firefighter | 03/04/25 |
| free-loading tan halford | 03/05/25 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/07/25 |
| Sadistic | 03/07/25 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/08/25 |
| Embarrassed to the bone | 03/08/25 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 03/08/25 |
| cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film | 02/18/26 |
| Rough-skinned Mood Casino | 05/15/26 |
| Domesticated | 05/17/26 |
| free-loading tan halford | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Turquoise Sex Offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: copper bespoke lay skinny woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: purple whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: frum wagecucks filthpig "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: transparent diverse stead stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Supple khaki half-breed 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Canary generalized bond Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: motley claret goyim house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Learning disabled zombie-like meetinghouse FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: elite church Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Abnormal rigpig Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Lime submissive brethren keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Maize know-it-all nibblets Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: titillating toilet seat Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: salmon comical love of her life Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Mustard painfully honest bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Stirring public bath organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: filthy stage puppy 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Lime submissive brethren keepsake machete November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Topaz Bateful Pocket Flask Haunted Graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Trip buck-toothed field sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: razzmatazz shimmering university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Exciting fortuitous meteor lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Bearded Odious Hall March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: adventurous hilarious tank home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Silver vibrant headpube 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Electric tantric national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: galvanic naked brunch lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: garnet abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Abusive contagious indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Wine Talented Kitty Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Chartreuse rehab Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: elite church OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: elite church And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Deranged Racy Double Fault 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Massive property fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Sable beta immigrant I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Aromatic Site French Chef 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: hideous magenta cuckoldry February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: black cracking shrine party of the first part You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Ocher hateful garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Cerebral Church Building Bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: pink boiling water business firm Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Anal kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Dark Hospital This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Yapping spruce center travel guidebook 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Razzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Impertinent parlour dingle berry Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: umber cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: vermilion nubile lodge boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Silver vibrant headpube 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: salmon comical love of her life flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: umber cruise ship From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Brindle marvelous menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Sickened indigo hissy fit An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: heady hell candlestick maker 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Sickened indigo hissy fit I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Sickened indigo hissy fit Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: heady hell candlestick maker No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Silver vibrant headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: flatulent pit 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Silver vibrant headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: umber cruise ship http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Silver vibrant headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: umber cruise ship looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Charismatic insane ape locus 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Charismatic insane ape locus No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: flatulent pit (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Multi-colored Lemon Circlehead Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: 180 clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Curious Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Effete ticket booth partner OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Cerebral Church Building Bbw PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: greedy boyish forum jap The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Concupiscible native mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Deranged Racy Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: dead laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Massive property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Nudist Ivory Boltzmann Principal's Office hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Bistre knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Massive property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: avocado sick base hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Blue Slippery Sound Barrier Internal Respiration yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Cerebral Church Building Bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Vivacious Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Pearl legal warrant chad truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: elite church March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: garnet abode http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: stimulating cumskin Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Ocher hateful garrison jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Supple khaki half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: bronze house-broken orchestra pit deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: mahogany harsh dopamine ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: medicated razzle-dazzle set personal credit line I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Azure spectacular affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: cream dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Cyan Tattoo Sandwich Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Cyan Tattoo Sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Obsidian excitant gaming laptop police squad holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: floppy famous landscape painting tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: flatulent pit 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Abusive contagious indian lodge Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Bistre knife Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: razzmatazz shimmering university This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Cerebral Church Building Bbw In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: razzmatazz shimmering university cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Mewling space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: flatulent pit 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Fishy wonderful spot selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: self-absorbed temple Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: vigorous clear school philosopher-king Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: flatulent pit holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: translucent thriller office LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: flatulent pit 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: flatulent pit lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Electric tantric national Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: nighttime rose dilemma persian September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: carnelian costumed market September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: fragrant shivering resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: fragrant shivering resort The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: flatulent pit let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: flatulent pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: elite church This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Frisky digit ratio karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: glittery jade nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Electric tantric national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: flatulent pit 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: medicated razzle-dazzle set personal credit line This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: bronze house-broken orchestra pit deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: flatulent pit hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Passionate point Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: flatulent pit doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Mint metal library half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: vigorous clear school philosopher-king close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Mentally impaired cordovan institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Aromatic Site French Chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Appetizing Cerise Den You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Henna theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: up-to-no-good hairraiser macaca Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: 180 clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: fragrant shivering resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: onyx antidepressant drug theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: nighttime rose dilemma persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Laughsome Crystalline People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: onyx antidepressant drug theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: vigorous clear school philosopher-king it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Abusive contagious indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Trip buck-toothed field sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Provocative therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Talking Friendly Grandma Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: maniacal mind-boggling corn cake black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: vengeful sanctuary faggotry 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Pungent Piazza Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: razzmatazz shimmering university this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: flatulent pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: dashing ebony foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: swashbuckling kink-friendly plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: arousing disgusting range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Canary generalized bond you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: vermilion nubile lodge boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Charismatic insane ape locus Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: olive big associate heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Scarlet adulterous son of senegal address ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Effete ticket booth partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: fragrant shivering resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Lascivious Senate Incel They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: jet patrolman Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: beady-eyed cowardly theatre elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Mint metal library GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: State https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: aggressive gas station gaping I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: irradiated snowy twinkling uncleanness it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Tripping Magical Locale https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: hyperactive school cafeteria sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Big-titted credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Charcoal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: splenetic genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: flatulent pit Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Supple khaki half-breed It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: carnelian costumed market Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: twinkling jet-lagged chapel giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: White exhilarant trailer park milk There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: stubborn stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Mewling space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Mewling space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Mewling space nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: brilliant water buffalo fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: transparent diverse stead stain Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: blathering (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: stubborn stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: flickering blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Bull headed orchid stage indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Anal kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Anal kitchen https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: fiercely-loyal new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Histrionic Confused Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: stubborn stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: light goal in life station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: fuchsia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Walnut weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: electric furnace 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: transparent diverse stead stain A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Doobsian Location Lettuce https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: razzmatazz shimmering university why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: blathering (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: glittery jade nursing home FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: blathering (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: blathering (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: transparent diverse stead stain One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: blathering (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Abusive contagious indian lodge 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Abusive contagious indian lodge https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Becky Turdskin Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: soul-stirring international law enforcement agency area The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: faggot firefighter He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: free-loading tan halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Sadistic 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: cruel-hearted cocky voyeur stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Rough-skinned Mood Casino ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
|
Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Domesticated i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
|
Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: free-loading tan halford Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id#50060136) |