Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm’s unusually abrupt escalation.

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.

The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County’s apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred.

In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending.

“Taxpayers won’t pay for it,” Mr. Kelly said. Asked if people might reconsider in light of the catastrophe, he said, “I don’t know.”

The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure.

Some of the openings may predate the current Trump administration. But at both offices, the vacancy rate is roughly double what it was when Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, according to Mr. Fahy.

John Sokich, who until January was director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service, said those unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. “Reduced staffing puts that in jeopardy,” he said.

A spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, Erica Grow Cei, did not answer questions from The New York Times about the Texas vacancies, including how long those positions had been open and whether those vacancies had contributed to the damage caused by the flooding.

“The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life,” she said in a statement, adding that the agency “remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.”

A White House spokeswoman directed a request for comment to the Commerce Department, which includes the Weather Service. The department did not respond to a request for comment.

The tragedy began to unfold in the early hours of July 4, when more than 10 inches of rain fell in some areas northwest of San Antonio, including in Kerr County, where more than 850 people were evacuated by rescuers. As of Saturday evening, 27 girls from a Christian summer camp remained missing.

That night, Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, appeared to fault the Weather Service, noting that forecasters on Wednesday had predicted as much as six to eight inches of rain in the region. “The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” he said at a news conference with Gov. Greg Abbott.

But what makes flash floods so hazardous is their ability to strike quickly, with limited warning. Around midnight on Thursday, the San Angelo and San Antonio weather offices put out their first flash flood warnings, urging people to “move immediately to higher ground.” The office sent out additional flash flood warnings through the night, expanding the area of danger.

It is not clear what steps local officials took to act on those warnings. A spokesman for the Kerr County emergency management department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The amount of rain that fell Friday morning was hard for the Weather Service to anticipate, with reports in some areas of 15 inches over just a few hours, according to Louis W. Uccellini, who was director of the National Weather Service from 2013 until 2022.

“It’s pretty hard to forecast for these kinds of rainfall rates,” Dr. Uccellini said. He said that climate change was making extreme rainfall events more frequent and severe, and that more research was needed so that the Weather Service could better forecast those events.

An equally important question, he added, was how the Weather Service was coordinating with local emergency managers to act on those warnings as they came in.

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“You have to have a response mechanism that involves local officials,” Dr. Uccellini said. “It involves a relationship with the emergency management community, at every level.”

But that requires having staff members in those positions, he said.

Under the Trump administration, the Weather Service, like other federal agencies, has been pushed to reduce its number of employees. By this spring, through layoffs and retirements, the Weather Service had lost nearly 600 people from a work force that until recently was as large as 4,000.

Some forecasting offices began to close down at night, and others launched fewer weather balloons, which send back crucial data to feed forecasts. The Weather Service said it was preparing for “degraded operations,” with fewer meteorologists available to fine-tune forecasts.

Last month, despite a government hiring freeze, the Weather Service announced a plan to hire 126 people in positions around the country, in what Ms. Cei, the agency’s spokeswoman, described as an effort to “stabilize” the department. As of this week, those jobs had not been posted in the federal government’s hiring portal.

Mr. Sokich said that the local Weather Service offices appeared to have sent out the correct warnings. He said the challenge was getting people to receive those warnings, and then take action.

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Typically, Mr. Sokich said, the Weather Service will send an official to meet regularly with local emergency managers for what are called “tabletop operations” — planning ahead of time for what to do in case of a flash flood or other major weather disaster.

But the Trump administration’s pursuit of fewer staff members means remaining employees have less time to spend coordinating with local officials, he said.

The Trump administration has also put strict limits on new hires at the Weather Service, Mr. Sokich said. So unlike during previous administrations, when these vacancies could have quickly been filled, the agency now has fewer options.

The Trump administration also froze spending on travel, he added, making it even harder for Weather Service staff members to meet with their state and local counterparts.

That does not mean there is not room for cuts at the Weather Service, Mr. Sokich said. “But you need to do them deliberately and thoughtfully,” he said.

David Montgomery and Judson Jones contributed reporting.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49076191)

"The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49076490)

Meterologist

·

TEXAS FLOOD: There are many questions about the tragic flash flood on the Guadalupe River late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The death toll is now over 50, including some children who were at Camp Mystic.

Here are some key points about the warning process...

*A flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County at 12:41a CT (just after midnight Thursday night). The watch mentioned isolated rain amounts of 10 inches, and stated "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." This followed a flash flood watch was issued earlier, on Thursday afternoon.

*A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14a CT For Kerr County, which mentioned "life threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers".

*A flash flood "emergency" was issued at 5:34a CT for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.

*NWS Austin/San Antonio had five on staff during the event; normally two would be on duty. Extra staffing was planned before the event started.

*This type of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River is nothing new. Similar events happened in 1998, 1987, 1978, 1935, and 1921. This year's event was related to deep moisture from a tropical system (Barry) that originated in the East Pacific and made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico, on June 29.

Social scientists will do much research on this in coming months and years. In my opinion one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful locally NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.

One takeaway is the importance of having a NOAA Weather Radio at every home, business, and any place where there are large number of people gathered (like a camp on a river). I would imagine cell service is very spotty along the Guadalupe where the camps were located. NWR does not use cell service and will wake you up. The alert is very loud, and can't be missed.

Again, I ask that you keep political rhetoric off the comment section here; left wing and right wing extremists are pushing false information and narratives are not close to the truth. Now is simply the time to support families that are suffering after the tragedy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49076723)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49076729)

Meteorologists Say the National Weather Service Did Its Job in Texas

DOGE cut hundreds of jobs at the NWS, but experts who spoke to WIRED say the agency accurately predicted the state's weekend flood risk.

At least 27 people, including nine children, are dead in central Texas after flash floods struck suddenly on the morning of the Fourth of July holiday. After a storm in which a month’s worth of rain fell in some regions in just a few hours, officials say they rescued more than 850 people from the floods over Friday and Saturday. A number of people were still missing as of Saturday afternoon, including 27 young campers from a Christian girls’ camp on the banks of the Guadalupe River.

Some local and state officials have said that insufficient forecasts from the National Weather Service caught the region off guard. That claim has been amplified by pundits across social media, who say that cuts to the NWS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its parent organization, inevitably led to the failure in Texas.

But meteorologists who spoke to WIRED say that the NWS accurately predicted the risk of flooding in Texas and could not have foreseen the extreme severity of the storm. What’s more, they say that what the NWS did forecast this week underscores the need to sustain funding to the crucial agency.

Meteorologists first had an idea that a storm may be coming for this part of Texas last weekend, after Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Mexico. “When you have a tropical system, it’s just pumping moisture northward,” says Chris Vagasky, an American Meteorological Society-certified digital meteorologist based in Wisconsin. “It starts setting the stage for heavy rainfall events.”

The NWS office in San Antonio on Monday predicted a potential for “downpours”—as well as heavy rain specifically at nighttime—later on in the week as the result of these conditions. By Thursday, it forecast up to 7 inches of rainfall in isolated areas.

The San Antonio and Hill Country regions of Texas are no stranger to floods. But Friday morning’s storm was particularly catastrophic. The Guadalupe River surged more than 20 feet in just a few hours to its second-highest level in recorded history. Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told media Friday morning that the county “didn’t know this flood was coming.”

“We have floods all the time… we deal with floods on a regular basis,” he said. “When it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here.”

W. Nim Kidd, the Chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), echoed Kelly’s comments at a press conference with Governor Greg Abbott on Friday. Kidd said that TDEM worked with its meteorologist to “refine” NWS forecasts. “The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” he said.

Predicting “how much rain is going to fall out of a thunderstorm, that’s the hardest thing that a meteorologist can do,” Vagasky says. A number of unpredictable factors—including some element of chance—go into determining the amount of rainfall in a specific area, he says.

“The signal was out there that this is going to be a heavy, significant rainfall event,” says Vagasky. “But pinpointing exactly where that’s going to fall, you can’t do that.”

Flash floods in this part of Texas are nothing new. Eight inches of rainfall in the state “could be on a day that ends in Y,” says Matt Lanza, also a certified digital meteorologist based in Houston. It’s a challenge, he says, to balance forecasts that often show extreme amounts of rainfall with how to adequately prepare the public for these rare but serious storms.

“It’s so hard to warn on this—to get public officials who don’t know meteorology and aren’t looking at this every day to understand just how quickly this stuff can change,” Lanza says. “Really the biggest takeaway is that whenever there’s a risk for heavy rain in Texas, you have to be on guard.”

And meteorologists say that the NWS did send out adequate warnings as it got updated information. By Thursday afternoon, it had issued a flood watch for the area, and a flash flood warning was in effect by 1am Friday. The agency had issued a flash flood emergency alert by 4:30am.

“The Weather Service was on the ball,” Vagasky says. “They were getting the message out.”

But as local outlet KXAN first reported, it appears that the first flood warnings posted from safety officials to the public were sent out on Facebook at 5am, hours after the NWS issued its warning.

“Clearly there was a breakdown between when the warning was issued and how people got it, and I think that’s really what has to be talked about,” Lanza says.

WIRED has reached out to the city of Kerrville, Kerr County, and the Texas Division of Emergency Management for comment on the KXAN report.

The cuts made to NOAA as part of President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts have made headlines this year, and with good reason: The NWS has lost more than 500 staffers since the beginning of the year, leaving some offices unstaffed overnight. It’s also cut key programs and even satellites that help keep track of extreme weather. Meteorologists have repeatedly said that these cuts will make predicting extreme weather even harder—and could be deadly as climate change supercharges storms and increases rainfall. But both Vagasky and Lanza say that this week’s forecasts were solid.

“I really just want people to understand that the forecast office in San Antonio did a fantastic job,” Vagansky says. “They got the warning out, but this was an extreme event. The rainfall rates over this six-hour period were higher than 1,000-year rainfall rates. That equates to there being less than 0.1 percent of a chance of that happening in any given year.”

Some of the first changes made at NOAA because of DOGE cuts were weather balloon launches across the country being reduced or eliminated altogether. But the balloons that did deploy this week—including one sent up over Texas on Thursday, which showed a saturated atmosphere with slow-moving winds, giving a heads-up on possible extreme rainfall—provided valuable information that helped inform the forecasts.

“This data helps,” Lanza says. “It probably could have been worse, you know? If you don’t have this data, you’re blind.”

Molly Taft is a senior writer for WIRED, covering climate change, energy, and the environment. Previously, they were a reporter and editor at Drilled, an investigative climate multimedia reporting project. Before that, they wrote about climate change and technology for Gizmodo, and served as a contributing editor for the New ... Read More

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49077105)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5746714&forum_id=2...id.#49077108)