Practical effects of Earth pop sinking to 4-5B by 2100?
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Date: May 27th, 2025 8:45 AM Author: Transparent Crawly Foreskin
Less concerned with the question of whether it stabilizes, and ignoring for now the question of which babies are being born.
Just curious about the second and third order effects of fifty-to-eighty years of decrease. Constantly having smaller youth cohorts, smaller cohorts of beginning workers, smaller cohorts of prime-earners, lot of dead weight retirees, etc.
Seems like the bulk of wealth and political power will get jammed up in the olds, and most of the economy will revolve around how to strip them/us of what we have.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48964225)
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Date: May 27th, 2025 9:02 AM Author: Transparent Crawly Foreskin
there are twin, opposing pressures to factor in here
1. no one wants to live in bumfuck and people have been abandoning flyover for generations for sex in the city. Entire swathes of the midwest and plains especially are just depopulating back to wildlife
2. remote work has opened an escape valve from high-priced cities
So while I think we see thousands of towns vanish, and the emergence of ghost-towns and giant abandoned counties in places like Kansas, I think an upper class of moneyed parents cluster in a number of places that are NOT NY/SF/LA etc. There will be like shadow cities in beautiful places like Montana, Idaho, etc. where the remote workers go to live.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48964280)
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Date: May 27th, 2025 8:58 AM Author: Transparent Crawly Foreskin
yeah its highly complicated by race, iq, geography, etc.
but for the purpose of our popdecline 101 seminar, I just want to presume its even and global
from there the grad students can twiddle the variables
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48964265) |
Date: May 27th, 2025 8:55 AM Author: Dull Garrison Boiling Water
straight population numbers mask the change in age cohorts imho. things will be much worse than they appear
humanity has never faced anything even remotely like this, where old people literally outnumber young people. the unknown unknowns will be 18000000000000000
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48964250) |
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Date: May 27th, 2025 11:44 AM Author: Transparent Crawly Foreskin
the wildest story of my entire life was going from how much i agreed with this statement on 9/12/01 to how much I would substitute *another group* by 5/27/25
like, a fucking magic trick. david copperfield shit. "what would you say if I told you in 20 years I can reverse you 180 degrees?"
but jews managed it
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48964742)
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Date: May 27th, 2025 7:29 PM Author: metal insanely creepy brunch international law enforcement agency
it's irrelevant because automation is going to have far more immediate and severe of an impact than the demographic cliff will outside of the most rapidly aging countries (sk, japan, etc). our ponzi scheme pension funding mechanism no longer being sustainable due to the population pyramid shape is a red herring if most of the population isn't working in the first place.
that's to say nothing of genetic engineering, as it's entirely possible within 30-40 years every new chinese child is a crispr chad von neumann even if we don't automate away the majority of labor.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5730277&forum_id=2...id.#48966114) |
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