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AGREE or DISAGREE: The longer Iran stays on its feet, the LESS likely it falls
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Date: June 18th, 2025 2:53 PM Author: slate market turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49028951) |
Date: June 18th, 2025 2:59 PM Author: Chest-beating Athletic Conference Deer Antler Sort of. The problem is that Iran has no real path to badly needed reform to make it viable over the long term. Most of the population aren't really hardline Islamists, even fewer of the elites in that society. Every election they get some Islamified Western shitlib. A lot of the people related to the Islamist ruling council are ancient. Hard to imagine something doesn't give over the next few decades.
The KSA (especially MBS) at least realizes that real reform is needed and is going full steam on that. Iran could improve relations with Russia and China while reforming their society into something sustainable. But they're not.
The other elephant in the room is that Iran, despite being officially Islamist and ruled by Sharia law, actually has a miserable fertility rate. |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:05 PM Author: cerise shaky brunch old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49028996) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:11 PM Author: stimulating wine locus Cr
There are polls that indicate that only about a third of Iranians identify with Islam personally |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:23 PM Author: mint cracking center nibblets What does your gf think about what's happening there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029034) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 5:30 PM Author: stimulating wine locus Mostly just worried about her family
She hates the government and most of the people she knew there did too; she’s getting a kick out of seeing the secret police HQ and the IRGC etc get blown to smithereens but it also really makes her sad to see Tehran bombed and she’s just afraid for whatever is coming next. But also hopeful
She also seems to like the Shah although I think it’s less from anything he stands for personally and more for him being a synecdoche for a prelapsarian Iran (although it’s not like there weren’t secret police and torture chambers under his rule…) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 5:36 PM Author: slate market turdskin Sad and predictable to see a woman rejoice watching her own get blown to shit. I guess it's worth seeing the death of her own people , as long as she doesn't have to wear a hijab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029500) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:15 PM Author: Coral Rebellious Senate Similar to portrayals of life in the west leaking into the USSR, a lot of pressure facing islamic regimes is seeing how much better life is in the civilized world. Very few people are interested in the joyless death cult and islam offers nothing but misery. Cleansing Iran of the islam infestation would go a long way to making it a better place. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029011) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:18 PM Author: slate market turdskin But the offer Israel/US has made is not Get rid of Islam and have freedom. It's Get rid of Islam and have Shlomo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029022) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:55 PM Author: Coral Rebellious Senate If Iran would stop being a catty fag and funding proxy groups, nobody would give a fuck about them. But they can't stop funding terror because terror is fundamental to islam. The problem is islam. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029147) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 5:14 PM Author: Chest-beating Athletic Conference Deer Antler Tcr. Their question is basically how do you evolve the regime without becoming another Western proxy state. But the ruling class are classic Boomers so they have no plans to fix anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029440) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 8:25 PM Author: racy pea-brained crotch hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49030012) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:20 PM Author: mint cracking center nibblets Why does Iran badly need reform? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029027) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:22 PM Author: cerise shaky brunch old irish cottage There are no jobs and the elites have a stranglehold on any that do exist. Housing and goods cost a fortune and inflation outpaces wage gains. It’s probably quite a similar situation to why your parents left Pakistan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029031) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:27 PM Author: mint cracking center nibblets Unemployment rate is similar to Turkey at ~8%.
Gini coefficients are high everywhere in the Middle East. But those are elites chosen by YOU, that's the difference.
Inflation outpaces wage gains largely due to sanctions imposed by you.
Ok, now that we've established that reform is not "badly needed," why does reform have to come from war and bloodshed by either Israel or the United States? |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:35 PM Author: cerise shaky brunch old irish cottage I said in the poast below that the Revolution has lasted ~50 years and will likely only fall through internal anger or rot.
I don’t want any US intervention in the region at all. That includes aid to Israel and sanctions on Iran. The more we get involved over there, the more people like you we seem to end up with over here.
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:59 PM Author: mint cracking center nibblets You mean productive citizens against the loss of American life and involvement in the region? Oh how awful (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029169) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 5:19 PM Author: Chest-beating Athletic Conference Deer Antler Because they're in a situation where they're largely standing alone against Israel and NATO. They recently rejected agreements with Russia and China to move closer. They're basically setting themselves up to get Syria'd. Add to that their economic situation, the demographic situation, and it just doesn't look great for the future. It reminds me of the USSR and China in the 80s. Everyone understood that Communism didn't work but China figured out how to evolve without crumbling and the USSR - didn't. What we see now with Russia and Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan, etc. are all the result of that. That's the situation Iran is in now.
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:37 PM Author: wild bateful gas station knife Like you know (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029083) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:04 PM Author: cerise shaky brunch old irish cottage People have been predicting the fall of the Islamic Republic for almost 50 years. I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s the Establishment with all that entails but it’s also become a gerontocracy where barely anyone even remembers the Shah — hardly a “revolution” anymore unless you’re a Boomer. If/when it falls it’ll be like the Soviet Union, rotted from within. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49028990) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:17 PM Author: mustard diverse address genital piercing Agree, but if Israel can get the US to successfully take out Fordow than that's a clear W in the war for them. They can just declare victory and say they will occasionally bomb some more if they see signs that Iran is rebuilding its nuke facilities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029017) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:22 PM Author: slate market turdskin Okay, then we need to more clearly define Victory. The outcome you depict is a clear Victory. Weekly Israeli bombings will harden Iran's missile production and nuclear development facilities, to say nothing of the will of the people opposing the "West" (Shlomo). Essentially exactly what happened in Gaza- where Israel can drop 1 Vietnam's worth of ordnance daily- and they still can't penetrate an inch of Hamas tunnels; the world increasingly supports them; and the original goals are completely off the table. This scenario is an unmitigated Win for Iran. Aim for the King, etc. |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:36 PM Author: mustard diverse address genital piercing I think you underestimate how much money and time it will take Iran to rebuild the things Israel has destroyed. While under sanctions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029079) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:40 PM Author: titillating gunner and while russia is caught up in their own war. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029096) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:37 PM Author: charcoal gay wizard Obviously the answer is yes, because you worded the question poorly.
I think you're trying to refer to the relationship being non-linear. |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:39 PM Author: slate market turdskin And your thoughts on that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029090) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:40 PM Author: charcoal gay wizard Probably true, but a very 100 IQ observation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029095) |
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Date: June 18th, 2025 3:58 PM Author: Iridescent internal respiration doubtless, with Iran's military command and control severely compromised by the decapitation strikes-- now is the time to go for the kill, so the window of opportunity is fleeting (notwithstanding, the morality and legality of such an action) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49029163) |
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Date: June 19th, 2025 2:10 AM Author: slate market turdskin Where are we on this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5739959&forum_id=2E#49031051) |