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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Beady-eyed Plaza Main People
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
Offensive field
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
spruce garrison
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
arousing toilet seat indian lodge
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
house-broken territorial menage
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
cr
primrose big-titted shrine
  01/06/26
...
Arrogant range
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
Floppy Chad
  01/06/26
...
Passionate weed whacker
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
nudist onyx station
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
nudist onyx station
  01/06/26
...
spruce garrison
  01/06/26
...
Concupiscible Resort Factory Reset Button
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
Citrine stirring sandwich
  01/06/26
...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
spruce garrison
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
Offensive field
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
slap-happy mauve partner kitchen
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
shimmering curious hall
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Indigo codepig
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
Slippery blood rage
  01/06/26
...
Slippery blood rage
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
pontificating twinkling school regret
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
Slippery blood rage
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
shimmering curious hall
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
spruce garrison
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
Offensive field
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Passionate weed whacker
  01/07/26
?
Slippery blood rage
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter
  01/07/26
...
Slippery blood rage
  01/10/26
...
Slippery blood rage
  03/05/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: Supple honey-headed theatre dingle berry

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Beady-eyed Plaza Main People

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Offensive field

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Offensive field

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: spruce garrison

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: arousing toilet seat indian lodge

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: house-broken territorial menage

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: Offensive field

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: primrose big-titted shrine

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: Arrogant range



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: Floppy Chad

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Passionate weed whacker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: nudist onyx station

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: Offensive field

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: nudist onyx station

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: spruce garrison



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: Concupiscible Resort Factory Reset Button



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Citrine stirring sandwich

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: Offensive field

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: spruce garrison

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: lemon aggressive property haunted graveyard

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Mint underhanded orchestra pit liquid oxygen

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Offensive field

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Offensive field

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Offensive field

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: slap-happy mauve partner kitchen

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: shimmering curious hall

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Indigo codepig

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: Slippery blood rage

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: Slippery blood rage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: pontificating twinkling school regret

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: Slippery blood rage

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: shimmering curious hall

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: spruce garrison

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: Offensive field

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Passionate weed whacker

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: Slippery blood rage

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: Galvanic sepia lay trump supporter

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: Slippery blood rage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49579920)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 5th, 2026 1:46 PM
Author: Slippery blood rage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2E#49718047)