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The AI jobs crisis has officially arrived
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:05 AM Author: scholarship The AI jobs crisis is here, now It's not coming, it has already arrived.
Brian Merchant On Monday, April 29th, Luis von Ahn, the billionaire CEO of the popular language learning app Duolingo, made a public announcement that his company is officially "going to be AI-first.” Duolingo, von Ahn wrote in an email to all employees that was also posted to LinkedIn, will “gradually stop using contractors to do work that AI can handle.” The CEO took pains to note that “this isn’t about replacing Duos with AI.”
According to one such Duolingo contractor, this is not accurate. For one thing, it’s not a new initiative. And it absolutely is about replacing workers: Duolingo has already replaced up to 100 of its workers—primarily the writers and translators who create the quirky quizzes and learning materials that have helped stake out the company’s identity—with AI systems. Duolingo isn’t “going to be” an AI-first company; it already is. The translators were laid off in 2023, the writers six months ago, in October 2024.
“It was very sudden when it happened,” the worker, a writer who spent years working at the company, told me on the condition of anonymity. They said it was “shocking” when they got the news. “We had been working with their AI tool for a while, and it was absolutely not at the point of being capable of writing lessons without humans.” They’d been told to stop working new content to help train the system, the writer says.
“If you had asked me a year ago, I would have told you that my job would become more and more editing AI content,” the writer told me. “I did not expect to be replaced so soon.”
This is a glimpse of the AI jobs crisis that is unfolding right now—not in the distant future—and that’s already more pervasive than we might think.
The Duolingo writer is far from alone. Almost every professional artist or illustrator I meet tells me they have lost clients and gigs to firms that have turned to AI instead of paying for human work; some have been pushed out of their fields altogether. I’ve written for WIRED about managers who are using AI to displace artists and designers in the video game industry. Voice actors have been on strike for 9 months now, seeking protections from corporations that would use AI to clone their voices. Just this week, the popular gaming website Polygon was sold off to the content farm Valnet that’s often accused of running AI-generated articles—almost all of Polygon’s human staff was fired.
It’s unclear whether these kinds of layoffs are enough to register in the economic data, though there are signs it is. Writing in the Atlantic this week, business journalist and abundist Derek Thompson points to an alarming phenomenon in the job market: The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is unusually high—and historically high in relation to the general unemployment rate. Why might that be? One theory: Firms are hiring fewer grads into white collar jobs, and using more AI. “When you think from first principles about what generative AI can do, and what jobs it can replace, it’s the kind of things that young college grads have done,” as the Harvard economist David Deming told Thompson.
Young grads are typically among the easiest to employ; they’re skilled, ambitious, and will work for cheap. Yet the recent grad-gap—the “difference between the unemployment of young college graduates and the overall labor force”—is higher than it’s been in four decades. Thompson points to the following graph, made with data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Here’s Thompson:
The strong interpretation of this graph is that it’s exactly what one would expect to see if firms replaced young workers with machines. As law firms leaned on AI for more paralegal work, and consulting firms realized that five 22-year-olds with ChatGPT could do the work of 20 recent grads, and tech firms turned over their software programming to a handful of superstars working with AI co-pilots, the entry level of America’s white-collar economy would contract.
Furthermore, as Thompson and others have noted, the Trump tariffs and trade wars could exacerbate the situation. Recessions hand more power to employers, who at least threaten and sometimes do invest in automation technologies like enterprise AI. “And even if employers aren’t directly substituting AI for human workers,” Thompson notes, “high spending on AI infrastructure may be crowding out spending on new hires.”
One of the biggest questions—perhaps the big question—that has persistently circled the AI boom is how it will impact our working lives and jobs more broadly. Will AI lead to a jobs crisis? Poll after poll has found that it’s the top concern that people have with AI: That AI will take jobs and make our working lives worse. To an extent, the big AI companies encourage this line. OpenAI, Anthropic, and its competitors are selling a brand of automation software whose key value proposition is that it can replace tasks and workers to slash labor costs.
Well, I have bad news. The AI jobs crisis has arrived. It’s here, right now. It just doesn’t look quite like many expected it to.
The AI jobs crisis does not, as I’ve written before, look like sentient programs arising all around us, inexorably replacing human jobs en masse. It’s a series of management decisions being made by executives seeking to cut labor costs and consolidate control in their organizations. The AI jobs crisis is not any sort of SkyNet-esque robot jobs apocalypse—it’s DOGE firing tens of thousands of federal employees while waving the banner of “an AI-first strategy.”
The AI jobs crisis is not the sudden displacement of millions of workers in one fell swoop—instead, it’s evident in the attrition in creative industries, the declining income of freelance artists, writers, and illustrators, and in corporations’ inclination to simply hire fewer human workers.
The AI jobs crisis is, in other words, a crisis in the nature and structure of work, more than it is about trends surfacing in the economic data. The AI boom, driven by OpenAI and Silicon Valley’s relentless talk of AGI and promotion of enterprise AI software and AI influencers enthusing over endless productivity gains, has been a powerful enabler of corporate automation and cost-cutting imperatives. These imperatives have always existed, of course; bosses have historically tried to maximize profits by using cost-cutting technologies. But generative AI has been uniquely powerful in equipping them with a narrative with which to do so—and to thus justify degrading, disempowering, or destroying vulnerable jobs.
DOGE is a good example. Elon Musk and the Trump administration’s project to hollow out the federal workforce is fueled by “AI-first strategies” and obtuse descriptions of algorithms and efficiency; it’s presented as a cost-cutting initiative aimed at generating efficiencies—yet it’s destroying livelihoods en masse and eroding institutional knowledge.
Patrick Kigongo, a former employee of 18F—the widely respected government agency that provided digital services across the federal government before it was dismantled wholesale by DOGE—says that this is essentially what the agency is doing. “They’re pointing at the AI hype machine and trying to apply that to government,” he said at a meeting of federal workers and academics resisting AI and DOGE in Washington DC. “They’re overpromising and doomed to underdeliver. The AI tools they’re promoting do not exist yet.”
DOGE is empowered by the logic of a generative AI enterprise product. It promises efficiency and techno-solutionism, but delivers results that are unreliable at best, and dangerous at worst. Consider DOGE’s laying off of nuclear regulators by mistake before recalling them back to work. Or its winnowing of federal food safety inspectors, soil surveyors, consumer protection advocates. Or its gutting of NASA, of the CDC, of the funding for scientific research everywhere, while Musk installs StarLink in the White House and positions his companies to pick up more state contracts.
This is the AI jobs crisis. It’s DOGE boosting its chatbots, cost-cutting algorithms and hastily installed AI systems designed to replace personnel and the administering of regulations, while eliminating tens of thousands of federal workers, technologists, scientists, and civil servants.
More broadly applied, the AI jobs crisis is billionaires, executives, and managers are using the gen AI logic to take aim at these kinds of jobs with renewed vigor; ie, those jobs that do not exist expressly to help them maximize profits.
I’ve been rereading the late anthropologist David Graeber’s Bullshit Jobs, which persuasively makes the case that the corporate world is happy to nurture inefficient or wasteful jobs if they somehow serve the managerial class or flatter elites—while encouraging the public to harbor animosity at those who do rewarding work or work that clearly benefits society. I think we can expect AI to accelerate this phenomenon, and to help generate echelons of new dubious jobs—prompt engineers, product marketers, etc—as it erodes conditions for artists and public servants.
A common refrain about modern AI is that it was supposed to automate the dull jobs so we could all be more creative, but instead, it’s being used to automate the creative jobs. That’s a pretty good articulation of what lies at the heart of the AI jobs crisis. Take the former Duolingo worker who was laid off as part of the company’s pivot to AI.
“So much will be lost,” the writer told me. “I was a content writer, I wrote the questions that learners see in the lessons. I enjoyed being able be creative. We were encouraged to make the exercises fun.” Now, consider what it’s being replace with, per the worker:
“First, the AI output is very boring. And Duolingo was always known for being fun and quirky. Second, it absolutely makes mistakes. Even on things that you would think it could get right. The AI tools that are available for people who pay for Duolingo Max often get things wrong—they have an ‘explain my mistake’ tool that often will suggest something that’s incorrect, sometimes the robot voices are programmed to speak the wrong language.”
This is just a snapshot, too. This is happening, to varying degrees, to artists, journalists, writers, designers, coders—and soon, perhaps already, as Thompson’s story points out, it could be happening to even more jobs and lines of work.
Now, it needs to be underlined once again that generative AI is not yet the one-size-fits-all agent of job replacement its salesmen would like it to be—far from it. A recent SalesForce survey reported on by the Information show that only one-fifth of enterprise AI buyers are seeing good results, and that 61% of respondents report a disappointing return on investment for AI or even none at all.
Generative AI is still best at select tasks that do not require consistent reliability—hence its purveyors taking aim at art and creative industries. But all that’s secondary. The rise of generative AI, linked as it is with the ascent to power of the American tech oligarchy, has given rise to a jobs crisis nonetheless.
We’re left at a crossroads where we must consider nothing less than what kind of jobs we want people to be able to do, what kind of work and which institutions we think are important as a society, and what we’re willing to do to protect them—before the logic of generative AI and the jobs crisis it has begotten guts them to the bone, or devours them altogether.
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:06 AM Author: """'"'"""'' if you have a retarded job where you don't have to think, just copiously do repetitive shit, then yes, you should be concerned. but whose fault is that? it's been obvious for some time that menial jobs would go by the wayside. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904800) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:08 AM Author: Rodeo Lewis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904806) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:10 AM Author: scholarship This is a law board so basically everyone here who doesn’t do trials (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904809) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:12 AM Author: """'"'"""'' 90% of lawyers are completely useless, yes. corporate/transactional ones in particular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904814) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:14 AM Author: scholarship At least we have bar associations to protect us lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904824) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:35 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface This is true in a pure sense. But, shockingly, our sr. management counterparts are generally dumb, illogical, unable to read or write effectively, and unable to anticipate consequences. Our value in-house is by being the outlier who can reason at least somewhat effectively (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904917) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:20 AM Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,,.,,...., Why can't AI anticipate consequences? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905071) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:39 AM Author: physical computer as of today, there is too much context (industry norms, counterparty temperament, viable potential counterclaims, etc.) to program into an ai to draft an optimal contract. once that becomes possible, you’re still going to need someone to sit down and think through those inputs and feed them to the machine. when that part is no longer necessary, there is no reason to have “managers” (or any other human participation) either. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905129) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:24 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface Agree with this. But it's only a matter of time...less than most think (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905317) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:31 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., lol at "trials". if anything should be done by AI it's fucking trial attorneys. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905107) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:44 PM Author: Fuck XII This poast makes me think you have shit for brains. What's your background? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905380) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:53 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., lol at society being at a point where cars can pretty much drive themselves but you need some in person shithead with 6 figures debt, a TTT degree, and a jos a banks suit to argue a landlord/tenant dispute or minor traffic shit in front of some pedo kike wearing a black robe. you sound like you have shit for brains and you don't have a real ass job. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905422) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:59 PM Author: Fuck XII What's your real ass job? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905453) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:07 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., I am a thought leader and people are not dead currently because of what I do (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905479) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:10 PM Author: neo radek (š§) 1249812471897412647126479401 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905486) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:18 PM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905512) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:16 PM Author: physical computer (innocence project monkey-wrench-thrower) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905882) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:18 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., jfc no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905884) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:49 PM Author: neo radek (š§) (Thought Leader of Men) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905990) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 4:56 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., my team is mostly women actually (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906188) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:26 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
Six months ago, I got into a fight with an XO Jewish Pumo who INSISTED -- vigorously and with a straight face -- that not only are transactional attorneys going to be among the last white collar professionals replaced by AI, but it's entirely possible that it will simply prove practically impossible to get AI up to a point where they can be replaced even down the line because they just bring too much nuance and intangible (but deeply important) value to what they do.
I don't think I've laughed that hard in years. In case that faggot is reading this thread, tyft I still think about it sometimes and guffaw.
(PS: I'm sure the exact same guy has also spent the last decade smugly shitting all over BTC and TSLA as "obvious scams" that are "going to crash to zero any day, trust me I know a thing or two about investments and the business world I have a JD from NYU and I've been practicing transactional biglaw for a few years now, champ") |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:37 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., i know next to nothing about AI or lawyering but I feel like 90%+ of court cases could be handled by simply having some bot spit out all the relevant evidence and bounce it against relevant cases/laws. would eliminate a lot of time, effort and cumfarting. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905934) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:11 AM Author: Ass Sunstein So like 95% of people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904810) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:12 AM Author: """'"'"""'' I'm not disagreeing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904815) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:19 AM Author: Rodeo Lewis Can you supply tasty nougat to women? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904850) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:52 AM Author: scholarship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904983) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:03 AM Author: neo radek (š§) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905020) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:51 AM Author: potluck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905186) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:41 PM Author: height tournament (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905585) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:46 PM Author: ted nougat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905612) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:47 PM Author: turtleback brief all-nighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905618) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:17 PM Author: i gave my cousin head thats 90% of jobs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905693) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:19 AM Author: metaphysics is fallow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904846) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:19 AM Author: UhOh i wonder if AI is also going to sneak in a bunch of queer storylines (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48904847) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 10:57 AM Author: Louis Poasteur "Luis von Ahn" sounds like a made-up name from Nintendo baseball (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905000) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:07 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I know of a small shitllaw firm that is now using AI for most of its practice. they formerly were an excellent first job for ttt grads who would get 3-4 years of motion writing and court hearing experience before moving on.
the zoom arguments have allowed the partners to do most arguments.
it's just got to hurt the bottom of the law market quickly if not already. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:22 AM Author: UhOh was thinking this the other day, biglaw will have midlevels using AI and cut back on new hires big time, students are fuckkkked, PPP to the moon. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905075) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:26 AM Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,,.,,...., Boomers win again (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905087) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:28 AM Author: UhOh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905096) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:31 AM Author: Diaper Diogenes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905103) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:44 AM Author: neo radek (š§) millennials, actually. we the boomers now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905147) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:31 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, what is the economic usefulness of the bottom 125 law schools now? maybe 50% of their usefulness pre-AI? and they were already predatory traps for students. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905104) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:35 AM Author: lsd It opens a lot of doors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905113) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, lol, remember that meme? and "JD-advantage jobs"? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:37 AM Author: UhOh a JD allows you to train AI on how to practice law! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905118) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:30 AM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. the models released over the last 6 months make me think this is going to happen on a large scale soon. o3/o4 mini and Gemini 2.5 pro show progress isn't slowing and might be accelerating. the efficiency gains for coding are already very significant. where will be in a year as larger training centers come on line? 5 years? we are still only looking at models that are about a 10x compute scale up over GPT-4. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905101) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:38 AM Author: Rodeo Lewis My pickup line to women has been “are you ai?” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905122) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:13 PM Author: Mainlining the $ecret Truth of the Univer$e (You = Privy to The Great Becumming™ & Yet You Recognize Nothing) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905493) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:38 AM DuoLingo and the other language learners themselves are about to get AI fucked if it hasn't happened already. We have earbuds that can translate speech in real time and your phone can do the same for text. Unless you actually plan to live in a non-English country, there's no reason to learn a language other than English. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905127) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:42 AM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905137) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:42 AM Author: internet g0y This doesn't sound right at all.
People on DuoLingo and other language learners are not learning a language because they have to, its because they want to. Its not just a practical thing of "I have to communicate information to someone". They want the satisfaction and achievement of learning a foreign language. Auto-translators don't do that. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:43 AM Author: Rodeo Lewis Not true. I quickly download it whenever I need to communicate someone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905145) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:38 PM Author: potluck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905571) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:05 PM Yeah and people used to use Ham Radio a lot to communicate across continents, then it got internetfucked. A few weirdos will still study languages because every quirky thing has its hobbyists, but there's no longer a practical reason to learn language and a lot of their business was people prepping for a vacation or relocating. Ironically their best customers are now going to be """refugees""" at least trying to learn the language of the place they're now occupying, who are terrible leads because they have no money. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905237) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:16 PM Author: jevv Sure, but you're not a SuperStudy Azn that does things only because there is some monetary use for it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905691) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:37 PM Author: Jonald J. Trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905936) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:39 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) no one has been able to answer a simple question...how do you monetize this and keep the economy "growing"? US economy is built on a tremendously stupid and short-sighted model of perpetual growth. so what happens when you shirk almost the entire workforce in favor of a few executives and top-level employees, and all profits are hoarded by them? who is going to buy shit? who is going to pay for Compute and energy required to sustain ever-increasing LLM resources? what will the Shareholders say? think of the goddamned Shareholders ffs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905131) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:43 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe ubi, influencers etc. Look what happened with that trashy woman on the playground. Made a million bucks from dropping the n-bomb. It's an economy of peasants entertaining each other with nonsense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905143) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:44 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) UBI will never happen in the US, and the latter state of affairs...I guess so, haha. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905148) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:18 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface Wrong. It's a when, not an if (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905295) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:20 PM We already have opt-in UBI, we just call it disability. Anybody can get on the dole with "my back hurts" and enough patience. A lot of people became """""""disabled""""""" after welfare was reformed in the 90's and that level of """""""""disability"""""""""" persists to this day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905300) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:34 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Welfare more broadly. Andrew Yang did a thing on this where he demonstrated that UBI won't even cost that much given how we already pay out so much welfare. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905350) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:56 PM That requires some heroic assumptions. Like, the reason SNAP can only (legally) be used for food is because proles will spend any cash you give them on drugs and beer. If you give parents UBI and they use the money on beer, are you going to let their children starve? If so, then great, this still costs more. If not, then you're handing proles cash while also still paying them welfare. Most of our public policy problems are caused by a bottom quintile that's too retarded to take care of themselves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905437) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:42 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., you pee sitting down and fart cum from your asshole when you aren't talking out of it, which you are right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905958) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:46 AM Author: internet g0y there are huge shortages in some industries esp blue collar work. why cant people do that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905155) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:48 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) like what industries? there are an infinite amount of Scumbags in any given exurban/rural area with Jerbs afaik. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905171) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:57 AM Author: internet g0y idk Mike Rowe says there are huge shortages in all these different industries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905206) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:51 AM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) It'll raise incomes for everyone. This is the economic theory, and it's what I think will actually happen.
Obviously as we move out of the information age and knowledge workers no longer have value, white collar workers will lose out *relative to* blue collar workers (who have in-demand skills), but in truth everyone will win. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:53 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) huh? it'll raise incomes for everyone even though they don't have Jerbs? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905192) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:59 AM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Yes, but for the most part they will have jobs. Everyone will just work less. The transition is disruptive, but there's just no question whatsoever empirically (let alone as a matter of LJL economic theory) that technology improves the quality of not just life in general, but of quality/safety/enjoyment of labor.
What will continue to piss me off to no end is when I'm still paying court reporters 13 years from now because the technology continues to be such rancid garbage (with dismayingly little improvement over the past decade). |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:03 PM Author: UhOh that's never how it works. fewer people end up working more and making more than ever.
also our AI court reporter is 175. takes a little cleanup but waaaaaay cheaper. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:11 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) That's demonstrably not true and you obviously don't have any serious interest in the subject.
There's even significantly more equality of lifestyle utility. People talk about "income inequality" based on the nominal Numbers on Screens, as if that shit matters, but look around: despite having 100,000x more Numbers on Screen dollars than me, Bill gates and jeff bezos just got viciously cucked by their wives, who walked away with half their money to fuck other men, and are now dating girls uglier and older than I could pick up tonight; bill tried to nerdily flirt with a girl and got #metoo'd for it immediately because she didn't fear him, and now he's a total joke; bezos was interviewed the other day (looking bald as fuck) about how he hasn't gone on a vacation in forever and the last vacation he went on sounded lame as dogshit compared to what I do 3x/year.
Compare this to the middle ages where the local noble would fuck your wife on your wedding night and kill your entire family if he got bad vibes from them, then go home to sleep in his ritzy castle while you died painfully of untreated metastasized skin cancer which finally provides you relief from the excruciating pain of the hernia you've had for 7 years from a lifetime of backbreakingly hard physical labor. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:15 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death no offense man but there are a ton of people in western society who do still have to work tons of hours for very little pay (and who actually do Real Work), and AI is going to squeeze these people even harder because there will be downwardly mobile former while collar workers who will be squeezing them from the top while mass immigration continues to squeeze them from the bottom
your posts itt are ivory tower insanity. not everyone is a female or brown person or government employee or boomer with a fake job who does no work. there are a lot of people who are struggling in this country and who do not and will not ever have these opportunities and will get fucked over even worse by AI |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:21 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I am a died-in-the-wool TRUMP voter and absolutely love middle-American trash, but let's be realistic: there is absolutely no one out there in America who is working serf-type labor. IF you opted for that you would become wildly wealthy as a small-business owner (I know that because I know dudes who just work moderately hard, and they are wealthy from the modest effort), but no one would choose to do that, and in fact no one does.
Go to a construction site or oil rig or wherever you in your head imagine these back-breakingly hardworking serfs toiling away at sometime, and you'll see that it's all totally chill. Honestly the worst thing sometimes is the cold weather, and as a society we're working on fixing that, too. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:25 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death unbelievably insane and delusional post
please go outside and leave new york city and interact with the real world |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:31 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I'm from middle America. These are my people, and except for substance abuse, they're doing fine: happy; slimming down; MAF at libs and enjoying it; not working too hard; hoarding guns. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905341) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:30 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
Lmao this is the dumbest and most insane flame I've seen in a long time, bravo. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 5:04 PM Author: Gay Grandpa Good to see you back. Roughnecks have it rough (I have been one) in many circumstances, especially when a boom is going bust and you're out of work. Mechanics (I have been one) are universally miserable and broken people. That's just the things I have personal experience in. So what the fuck is he talking about. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:17 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Your AI court reporter is not 175; I follow this issue obsessively closely. The highest I have *ever* gotten on a deposition was of a records custodian late last year who annunciated like a robot and talked super-slowly; I was excited to feed it through the 3 services we continually experiment with (I still use this audio as a high-water-mark reference point), but it still only comes out to just under 94% accuracy, which is still completely worthless. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905290) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:07 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death you don't, it's going to completely fuck up the western world
people who think that AI is somehow going to "raise overall labor compensation" or "result in everyone working less (LOL)" are totally clueless
there are going to be many benefits resulting from AI but it's absolutely going to completely fuck over a ton of people |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:09 PM Author: caitlin clark (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905255) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:16 PM Author: Diaper Diogenes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905286) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:16 PM Author: peeface the people it will fuck first will be the Indians and other third worlders doing really bad information handling work.
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:50 PM Author: physical computer comparing it to historical labor market shifts seems to miss the point. while disruptive, prior changes ultimately benefited society at large by freeing up brainpower/man-hours for sequentially higher levels of labor abstraction, corresponding to higher levels of productivity and efficiency. hunter/gatherer->subsistence farmer->artisan->industrial cog->knowledge worker (or something along those lines, at least). what’s different this time is there is no higher tier to which the obviated labor can now be directed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905405) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:03 PM Not yet, but when we invented the printing press, we didn't immediately know what the bros who illuminated manuscripts for a living were going to do next. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905465) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:08 PM Author: physical computer that’s a fair point, and obviously betting on everything inventable having been invented has been a loser historically. but i think it’s arguable that delegating all thinking/decision-making could represent a *conceptual* ceiling that’s fundamentally different from what we’ve seen before. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905481) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:06 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death bingoš«”
there is nowhere for the displaced people to go but down. that is the difference.
the proper counter-argument to this is: we will tax the AI companies and re-distribute that money to the populace, to try to even things out. but this is just not going to work in the current political environment in the west |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:27 PM Author: theranchman it's disturbing that not everyone realizes were in a race to the top thunderdome right now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905531) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:33 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe "the proper counter-argument to this is: we will tax the AI companies and re-distribute that money to the populace, to try to even things out."
If shit hits the fan I think it will happen. The idea of UBI has already been tossed about now and unemployment is like 2%. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:42 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death agreed, see my poast below
it won't work though. it will be a total disaster and make things much worse |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:48 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., you are a foreign fag who talks out of his asshole constantly. also you pee sitting down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905622) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:08 PM Author: Louis Poasteur You are a 95 IQ failure who tries to ruin every thread and shut down discussion on a discussion forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905666) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:31 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
You're a completely insane and utterly worthless Jewish faggot who posts dumb shit on the internet and you should kill yourself for the sake of humanity, XOXO HTH! |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 4:32 PM Author: Louis Poasteur Get away from me you pathetic retard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906115) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 4:41 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
No.
OK, glad we had that discussion. Now what? You gonna stay MAF that you have absolutely no power over me and I can call you a dumb pathetic faggot as much as I want, kike? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:45 PM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., thut down dithcuthion! fuck off upset jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905973) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 4:41 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906158) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:30 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905905) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:14 PM Author: peeface sex with men, for money.
you think Peter Thiel hasn't thought this through? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:13 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. there are lots of people who own stock. if you can create a human level worker for the price of a GPU, companies will be able to significantly increase production and distribute those profits to shareholders that will buy products. equity returns would likely be extremely high in an AGI scenario if property rights are respected. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905680) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:05 PM Author: physical computer ”companies will be able to significantly increase production…” nobody itt is arguing there aren’t huge theoretical production efficiency gains to be had. the point is there will be nobody (or at least much, much fewer) to whom they’ll be able to sell. what percentage of the population do you think holds significant enough ai tech equity that they’ll be able to live off the returns? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:07 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I guess they'll just continue to produce and produce but then throw the product in the ocean. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905861) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:09 PM Author: physical computer now you’re thinking like an elite! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905864) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:10 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death they would have to nationalize the AI companies and distribute equity to the populace in some structured way. this is a possible solution on paper and one that people have talked about
but again, it won't actually work in practice because of the political realities of the west. this could work in china. it will not work in a polity that is at civil war with itself between blocs of existential enemies |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:14 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. it's not just AI tech equity that would be positively impacted. any company that could replace employees with AIs will see an increase in productivity. if workers can be completely replaced, the only constraint on GDP is energy, which could conceivably be scaled by orders of magnitude. you wouldn't need to own much stock to be rich in a scenario in which the equivalent of trillions of human workers are created. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905880) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:18 PM Author: physical computer just do scale up energy production by orders of magnitude! why didn’t anyone ever think of that before? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905883) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:21 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. we are talking about the creation of AGI, which would likely be significantly smarter than any human organization. do you think it would be challenging for such a system to solve fusion or mass produce solar panels in space to capture a large fraction of the sunlight? there is no shortage of energy around, but people are dumb and can't be replicated at scale to capture it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905887) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:23 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow lol the answer to all the questions about AI is that AI will do it. It's an hilarious cycle that has that guy who won a noble prize embarrassing himself in front of the world by saying all medical problems will be solved by AI in 10 years. This is a fad and a cult. It's literally beanie babies for computers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905890) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:34 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. the only plausible scenario in which a very large fraction of people are unemployed is if AGI is created. this argument is separate from saying that is likely to happen soon.
the capabilities of AGI are somewhat unclear, but it's likely to vastly exceed human capabilities. it would be significantly faster, could be trained on significantly more data than a human could experience in a lifetime, it could use more parameters than a human brain, there would be more architectural flexibility than human brains, etc. biological brains are trash. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:36 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow you're just talking in circles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905929) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:40 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. not really. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905951) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:43 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) It's the midwit version of southern evangelicals talking about God returning and the rapture. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905965) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:30 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death AGI is not arriving anytime soon
this kind of hand-waving "AGI will magically solve everything" is not useful or realistic and even if AGI does happen at some point down the road, there will be a significant interim during which the problems being discussed will need to be addressed and solved |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:39 PM Author: .,.,,..,..,.,..:,,:,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. this view seems bizarre to me. what's the scenario in which 1) mass unemployment occurs and 2) there are still many domains in which these systems fail and prevents them from being truly general? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905947) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:44 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow holy shit stfu lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905972) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:47 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death the one that's about to happen right now. we're basically already there. the only reason why AI hasn't already replaced tens of millions of white collar jobs is because there is a lag time between capability and implementation. AI is already powerful enough to do this, the system just needs time to adjust and integrate it
people are caught up on "AGI" but "AGI" is a sort of red herring in the discussion. it's not even clear what "AGI" will/would be. we already know what current AI is capable of doing, right now, and it is going to cause serious problems that right now we have no capacity to solve in our current political reality |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 11:55 AM Author: Covid was a Hoax good. next up is robocop working at mcdonalds. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905198) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:24 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death the truth is that we can't fully anticipate or predict what exactly AI is going to do to the economy and society at large
it's way more complex and unpredictable than any other new technology ever created. it's very possible that there will be such widespread panic, inflamed by the media and political interests, that the government will feel forced to institute government monopoly protection measures for many human jobs, or even UBI (both of these would be total disasters)
we just don't know what's going to happen. but it is NOT going to result in a net more economically desirable outcome for white westerners. there will be many benefits from AI, but this will not be one of them |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:29 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) This is economically and historically illiterate. AI will absolutely improve life outcomes all around, although the distribution of who improves most remains to be seen.
Literally the ONLY possibility of it not improving outcomes is if it becomes a malign force (or more generally, negative *direct* effects not related to displacement of human employment), which is not the conversation we're having. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:35 PM Author: Covid was a Hoax well it obviously wont improve life outcomes for college employees but thats a good thing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905355) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:50 PM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) this sort of delusional optimism can only portend Very Bad Things ime. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905409) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 1:02 PM Author: curb stomp dave portnoy to death agreed. he has essentially religious beliefs about Economics and so do most policymakers. not good, folks
"hey, uh, can you explain how it will be economically Good for middle-class people for AI and mass immigration to relentlessly squeeze them out of the job market from all directions?"
"you're Historically Illiterate and AI will Make Everyone Rich because the Steam Engine did good stuff 300 years ago" |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:49 PM Author: Louis Poasteur He didn't say anything about mass immigration. The jobs that AI will make obsolete are mainly computer jobs that have only existed for 40 years or less so they aren't some sort of treasured historical legacy, frankly most of them are soul crushing and demoralizing. AI can free people up from boring office work to do more interesting and creative work, with more personal interface. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905803) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:13 PM Author: Diamond Dallas Trump "AI can free people up from boring office work to do more interesting and creative work"
Who is going to pay people to do interesting and creative work? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:26 PM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) AI will solve that!!1 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905893) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:33 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
CR and you're a "historically illiterate retard" if you doubt or question this. Trust me, I know these things! Did I mention that I've read a LOT of books and I am VERY smart? |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 4:25 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Guess we'll all be destitute and in pain then. Weird that so much multibillion-dollar investment and multidecade effort would be put into this enterprise of increasing human misery. Oh well! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906086) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:48 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow It's wrong all the time and you can get it to say whatever you want. It's a cheap card trick (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905399) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:50 PM Author: ,.,.,.,........,....,,,.. If you are smart then it is way more than a cheap card trick. If you are dumb you can come across like a retard real quick by using it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905407) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:52 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow It's the opposite. You're being fooled by a silly smoke and mirrors show (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905417) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 2:59 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Aspects of it are really impressive, and have gotten noticeably better over the past 5 years, albeit disappointingly slowly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905832) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 12:48 PM Author: ,.,.,.,........,....,,,.. Right now I don’t think anyone is getting laid off because of it, but basically whenever a junior leaves we just don’t hire again because I can get more out of ChatGPT than dealing with a junior. The future for young professionals is bleak right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48905396) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 3:00 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) It really is true that young TTT grads are in trouble over this.
It's probably the 2nd most consequential thing to happen to the labor market (after the internet) in my lifetime. |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 5:11 PM Author: ....,,....,,... Law students are completely fucked (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906256) |
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Date: May 5th, 2025 5:11 PM Author: metaphysics is fallow The professions will simply not allow AI to do the work for many years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5720598&forum_id=2E#48906258) |