The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| rebellious hospital | 12/10/15 |
| multi-colored fluffy karate chapel | 12/12/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/02/17 |
| Copper goyim | 01/06/16 |
| Light Gaped Center | 01/06/16 |
| Light Gaped Center | 06/05/16 |
| Dashing Office Son Of Senegal | 03/26/16 |
| Jet double fault | 01/02/17 |
| Swollen Station | 10/25/18 |
| Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck | 12/10/15 |
| Dun deep athletic conference | 12/10/15 |
| drab jap sneaky criminal | 12/10/15 |
| apoplectic exhilarant marketing idea | 12/10/15 |
| Anal national security agency hell | 12/15/15 |
| beady-eyed flushed forum old irish cottage | 12/10/15 |
| Vibrant area | 12/10/15 |
| nofapping hairy legs | 12/10/15 |
| Curious Indigo Idea He Suggested State | 12/11/15 |
| big turdskin | 12/12/15 |
| odious dilemma | 12/16/15 |
| alcoholic drunken kitty cat messiness | 01/04/16 |
| pink boyish cuckoldry internal respiration | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/11/15 |
| Glittery private investor | 12/11/15 |
| Flirting Useless Field | 12/11/15 |
| Curious Indigo Idea He Suggested State | 12/11/15 |
| razzle-dazzle medicated yarmulke | 12/12/15 |
| razzle rigor | 01/25/16 |
| Mahogany church building haunted graveyard | 11/10/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/12/15 |
| Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena | 12/12/15 |
| chestnut mischievous background story | 12/12/15 |
| heady opaque shrine | 12/12/15 |
| Carmine Hall | 12/15/15 |
| Passionate Lodge | 12/21/15 |
| shimmering fiercely-loyal institution | 12/12/15 |
| Crusty bateful stock car | 12/12/15 |
| Out-of-control wrinkle business firm | 12/12/15 |
| titillating ultramarine pit | 12/12/15 |
| Costumed insecure electric furnace | 12/12/15 |
| Beta stead immigrant | 12/12/15 |
| Vibrant area | 12/15/15 |
| Vibrant area | 12/16/15 |
| Stirring Silver Home | 12/15/15 |
| jade wonderful dingle berry | 12/15/15 |
| Scarlet plaza death wish | 12/15/15 |
| Sickened Boiling Water | 12/15/15 |
| Submissive Mental Disorder | 12/15/15 |
| topaz trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/15/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/15/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/15/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/15/15 |
| rebellious hospital | 12/15/15 |
| primrose cocky set mad-dog skullcap | 01/05/16 |
| razzle rigor | 01/25/16 |
| crystalline violent sex offender | 12/17/16 |
| appetizing angry generalized bond | 05/18/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 08/12/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| spectacular dead resort | 11/09/16 |
| Lime piazza | 11/09/16 |
| irate tank locale | 10/22/20 |
| Internet-worthy Den Dysfunction | 12/15/15 |
| Aphrodisiac sound barrier | 12/16/15 |
| Fragrant famous landscape painting milk | 12/16/15 |
| 180 frisky french chef | 12/16/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/16/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/17/15 |
| rusted potus | 12/18/15 |
| Copper goyim | 01/06/16 |
| Well-lubricated Elastic Band Incel | 12/18/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/21/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/21/15 |
| Passionate Lodge | 12/21/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/30/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 12/30/15 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/04/16 |
| alcoholic drunken kitty cat messiness | 01/04/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/05/16 |
| razzle rigor | 01/25/16 |
| rusted potus | 01/05/16 |
| Contagious Becky | 01/05/16 |
| Provocative Cuckold Hominid | 01/05/16 |
| Electric library pozpig | 01/05/16 |
| Fighting self-centered property | 01/05/16 |
| Electric library pozpig | 01/05/16 |
| Copper goyim | 01/06/16 |
| Electric library pozpig | 01/06/16 |
| Fighting self-centered property | 01/05/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 01/06/16 |
| Passionate Lodge | 01/07/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/08/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 01/08/16 |
| Passionate Lodge | 01/08/16 |
| rusted potus | 01/09/16 |
| Passionate Lodge | 01/10/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/18/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/19/16 |
| rusted potus | 01/21/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/25/16 |
| Vengeful citrine coffee pot | 01/25/16 |
| razzle rigor | 01/25/16 |
| Vengeful citrine coffee pot | 02/09/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 09/06/16 |
| Copper goyim | 11/05/18 |
| awkward tanning salon | 01/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 02/01/16 |
| exciting puce cumskin meetinghouse | 02/01/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 02/01/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 02/07/16 |
| Contagious Becky | 02/09/16 |
| Marvelous house-broken house | 02/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 02/20/16 |
| Hyperventilating Carnelian Associate Quadroon | 02/20/16 |
| appetizing angry generalized bond | 02/24/16 |
| mildly autistic stubborn sweet tailpipe garrison | 02/24/16 |
| violet slimy skinny woman | 02/27/16 |
| Stirring Silver Home | 03/09/16 |
| Chartreuse Histrionic Voyeur Halford | 03/15/16 |
| drab jap sneaky criminal | 03/15/16 |
| jade wonderful dingle berry | 03/16/16 |
| chrome gaping | 02/24/16 |
| Coral Diverse Brunch Legal Warrant | 02/24/16 |
| jade wonderful dingle berry | 07/21/16 |
| Startling Factory Reset Button Theater | 02/24/16 |
| drab jap sneaky criminal | 02/27/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/02/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/04/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/09/16 |
| Contagious Becky | 03/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/15/16 |
| appetizing angry generalized bond | 03/15/16 |
| Lake masturbator | 03/15/16 |
| pontificating racy temple | 03/15/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/16/16 |
| Vibrant area | 03/16/16 |
| spectacular dead resort | 03/23/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/23/16 |
| Out-of-control wrinkle business firm | 03/26/16 |
| Unholy Maniacal Lay | 03/26/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/26/16 |
| primrose cocky set mad-dog skullcap | 03/28/16 |
| spectacular dead resort | 03/28/16 |
| Dun deep athletic conference | 03/28/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 08/12/16 |
| Copper goyim | 11/05/18 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/28/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/29/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 03/29/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 03/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/01/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/04/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 04/15/16 |
| Concupiscible abode brethren | 04/15/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/19/16 |
| Henna Lascivious Menage | 04/20/16 |
| very tactful transparent faggot firefighter mad cow disease | 04/20/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/24/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/25/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/26/16 |
| Bipolar indian lodge | 04/26/16 |
| bespoke school cafeteria ape | 04/30/16 |
| arrogant gold degenerate | 05/01/16 |
| arrogant gold degenerate | 11/07/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/02/16 |
| spectacular dead resort | 05/02/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/03/16 |
| ocher step-uncle's house | 05/03/16 |
| Poppy depressive | 05/03/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/04/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 05/04/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/05/16 |
| titillating ultramarine pit | 05/05/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 05/05/16 |
| Coral Diverse Brunch Legal Warrant | 05/05/16 |
| Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena | 05/18/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/18/16 |
| appetizing angry generalized bond | 05/18/16 |
| Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena | 05/18/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 05/29/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 06/20/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 06/29/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/14/16 |
| emerald public bath tattoo | 07/15/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 07/15/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/17/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 07/17/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/21/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/22/16 |
| Up-to-no-good adventurous church regret | 07/22/16 |
| Razzmatazz base useless brakes | 07/23/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/24/16 |
| charismatic flesh trailer park chad | 07/25/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 07/25/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 07/27/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 08/05/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 08/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 08/12/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 08/12/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 08/12/16 |
| arousing seedy gay wizard space | 08/12/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 08/30/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 08/30/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 09/06/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 09/13/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 09/14/16 |
| shimmering fiercely-loyal institution | 09/14/16 |
| blathering cruise ship | 09/15/16 |
| azure pungent nowag | 09/15/16 |
| Light Gaped Center | 09/15/16 |
| thriller vermilion school | 09/15/16 |
| mauve cerebral ceo point | 09/15/16 |
| underhanded locus kitty | 09/19/16 |
| underhanded locus kitty | 09/19/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 09/27/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 09/24/16 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 09/27/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 09/27/16 |
| Vibrant area | 09/27/16 |
| bright laughsome main people | 10/08/16 |
| Judgmental Chocolate Dog Poop | 07/29/24 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 09/28/16 |
| shimmering fiercely-loyal institution | 09/28/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 09/28/16 |
| very tactful transparent faggot firefighter mad cow disease | 09/28/16 |
| Concupiscible abode brethren | 09/28/16 |
| hairraiser market | 10/08/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 10/09/16 |
| Pearly soul-stirring friendly grandma theater stage | 10/09/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 10/09/16 |
| Big-titted theatre | 10/09/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 10/10/16 |
| charismatic flesh trailer park chad | 10/30/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 11/01/16 |
| thriller vermilion school | 11/01/16 |
| aromatic cruel-hearted blood rage corner | 11/02/16 |
| Sickened Boiling Water | 11/02/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 11/07/16 |
| Aquamarine Cracking Digit Ratio | 11/08/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 11/08/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/08/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 11/08/16 |
| talented duck-like travel guidebook senate | 11/08/16 |
| Hideous ruddy sanctuary | 11/08/16 |
| exciting puce cumskin meetinghouse | 11/08/16 |
| underhanded locus kitty | 11/08/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/08/16 |
| filthy native hunting ground | 11/09/16 |
| blathering cruise ship | 11/09/16 |
| Floppy philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| thriller vermilion school | 11/09/16 |
| filthy native hunting ground | 11/09/16 |
| charismatic flesh trailer park chad | 11/09/16 |
| titillating ultramarine pit | 11/09/16 |
| hot giraffe | 12/03/16 |
| Mahogany church building haunted graveyard | 12/07/16 |
| crystalline violent sex offender | 12/17/16 |
| Trip Bawdyhouse | 10/11/24 |
| Translucent Nibblets | 11/09/16 |
| excitant frum toilet seat orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| Elite gaming laptop range | 11/09/16 |
| Stimulating unhinged principal's office | 11/09/16 |
| hot giraffe | 11/09/16 |
| Know-it-all Spot Persian | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena | 11/09/16 |
| bronze lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| fuchsia ratface | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| galvanic mother location | 11/09/16 |
| pea-brained fat ankles site | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| apoplectic exhilarant marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| Well-lubricated Elastic Band Incel | 11/10/16 |
| Vengeful citrine coffee pot | 11/10/16 |
| Light Gaped Center | 11/10/16 |
| bearded supple crackhouse | 11/10/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/10/16 |
| vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency | 11/10/16 |
| Hyperventilating Carnelian Associate Quadroon | 11/10/16 |
| underhanded locus kitty | 11/14/16 |
| Motley orange national stain | 11/14/16 |
| vigorous outnumbered gas station | 12/04/16 |
| crystalline violent sex offender | 12/17/16 |
| Trip Bawdyhouse | 10/11/24 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/25/16 |
| comical high-end parlour | 12/03/16 |
| Big-titted theatre | 12/04/16 |
| French Painfully Honest Stag Film | 12/07/16 |
| Light Gaped Center | 12/07/16 |
| comical high-end parlour | 12/07/16 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/02/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/02/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/02/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/02/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 03/03/20 |
| Light Gaped Center | 01/02/17 |
| spectacular dead resort | 01/16/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/20/17 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/20/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/23/17 |
| hairraiser market | 01/23/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/23/17 |
| Magenta telephone | 01/23/17 |
| hairraiser market | 01/23/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/23/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/25/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 01/26/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 02/06/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 02/13/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 02/27/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 05/03/17 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/03/17 |
| doobsian round eye mood | 09/21/17 |
| drab jap sneaky criminal | 01/23/17 |
| thriller vermilion school | 02/27/17 |
| Copper goyim | 03/22/17 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 04/17/17 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/08/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 06/20/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 08/10/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 10/15/17 |
| spectacular dead resort | 10/15/17 |
| Idiotic heaven | 10/15/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/06/17 |
| yapping ruby rehab genital piercing | 11/06/17 |
| Fear-inspiring clown | 11/08/17 |
| tantric box office corn cake | 11/08/17 |
| Bat-shit-crazy stage | 11/13/17 |
| spectacular dead resort | 12/18/17 |
| bronze lettuce | 12/18/17 |
| spectacular dead resort | 12/18/17 |
| rebellious hospital | 01/30/18 |
| Light Gaped Center | 06/01/18 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/18/18 |
| spectacular dead resort | 07/19/18 |
| mauve cerebral ceo point | 09/20/18 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 09/25/18 |
| Dun deep athletic conference | 10/06/18 |
| rebellious hospital | 10/06/18 |
| Light Gaped Center | 10/25/18 |
| azure pungent nowag | 10/25/18 |
| razzle rigor | 11/05/18 |
| Light Gaped Center | 11/05/18 |
| Copper goyim | 11/05/18 |
| Light Gaped Center | 11/05/18 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 01/08/19 |
| twinkling uncleanness whorehouse | 02/23/19 |
| rebellious hospital | 03/13/19 |
| razzle rigor | 06/24/19 |
| Rose people who are hurt | 06/24/19 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 11/18/19 |
| thriller vermilion school | 02/12/20 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 02/12/20 |
| rebellious hospital | 03/24/20 |
| Bull headed love of her life faggotry | 03/24/20 |
| emerald public bath tattoo | 04/04/20 |
| rebellious hospital | 04/26/20 |
| rebellious hospital | 05/13/20 |
| emerald public bath tattoo | 06/05/20 |
| jet-lagged stage jew | 06/05/20 |
| emerald public bath tattoo | 09/09/20 |
| thriller vermilion school | 09/09/20 |
| Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck | 09/09/20 |
| slate headpube kitchen | 09/12/20 |
| shivering ladyboy therapy | 09/24/20 |
| Rose people who are hurt | 10/09/20 |
| spectacular dead resort | 10/10/20 |
| address feces | 10/22/20 |
| hot giraffe | 10/22/20 |
| irate tank locale | 10/22/20 |
| irate tank locale | 10/22/20 |
| Harsh frozen selfie roast beef | 03/23/22 |
| rebellious hospital | 10/27/20 |
| Copper goyim | 10/27/20 |
| Rose people who are hurt | 10/30/20 |
| spectacular dead resort | 11/03/20 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/22/22 |
| laser beams casino | 03/23/22 |
| Cyan rambunctious nursing home | 03/23/22 |
| Honey-headed university | 03/23/22 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 07/25/22 |
| Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck | 07/25/22 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 10/23/22 |
| rebellious hospital | 11/16/22 |
| rebellious hospital | 04/25/23 |
| Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena | 04/25/23 |
| shivering ladyboy therapy | 04/29/23 |
| Judgmental Chocolate Dog Poop | 05/28/23 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 02/22/24 |
| shivering ladyboy therapy | 02/23/24 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 05/23/24 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 08/26/24 |
| shivering ladyboy therapy | 09/13/24 |
| Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck | 09/13/24 |
| shivering ladyboy therapy | 10/18/24 |
| Trip Bawdyhouse | 10/11/24 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 11/06/24 |
| titillating ultramarine pit | 03/04/25 |
| titillating ultramarine pit | 03/04/25 |
| mauve cerebral ceo point | 03/04/25 |
| Trip Bawdyhouse | 03/04/25 |
| canary filthpig | 03/04/25 |
| Infuriating | 03/05/25 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/07/25 |
| 03/07/25 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/08/25 |
| At-the-ready | 03/08/25 |
| Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy | 03/08/25 |
| drab jap sneaky criminal | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: rebellious hospital December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: multi-colored fluffy karate chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Light Gaped Center another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Dashing Office Son Of Senegal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Jet double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Swollen Station "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Dun deep athletic conference 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: drab jap sneaky criminal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: apoplectic exhilarant marketing idea Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Anal national security agency hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: beady-eyed flushed forum old irish cottage FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Vibrant area Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: nofapping hairy legs Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Curious Indigo Idea He Suggested State (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: big turdskin Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: odious dilemma Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: alcoholic drunken kitty cat messiness Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: pink boyish cuckoldry internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Glittery private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Flirting Useless Field 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Curious Indigo Idea He Suggested State November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: razzle-dazzle medicated yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: razzle rigor Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Mahogany church building haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: chestnut mischievous background story lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: heady opaque shrine March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Carmine Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Passionate Lodge 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: shimmering fiercely-loyal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Crusty bateful stock car lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Out-of-control wrinkle business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: titillating ultramarine pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Costumed insecure electric furnace Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Beta stead immigrant Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Vibrant area OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Vibrant area And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Stirring Silver Home 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: jade wonderful dingle berry fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Scarlet plaza death wish I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Sickened Boiling Water 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Submissive Mental Disorder February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: topaz trump supporter You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: rebellious hospital Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: rebellious hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: rebellious hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: rebellious hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: rebellious hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: primrose cocky set mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: razzle rigor Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: crystalline violent sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: appetizing angry generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: rebellious hospital http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Lime piazza Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: irate tank locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Internet-worthy Den Dysfunction This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Aphrodisiac sound barrier 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Fragrant famous landscape painting milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: 180 frisky french chef Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: rusted potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Well-lubricated Elastic Band Incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Passionate Lodge 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: alcoholic drunken kitty cat messiness flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: rebellious hospital ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: razzle rigor Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: rusted potus From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Contagious Becky 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Provocative Cuckold Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Electric library pozpig An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Fighting self-centered property 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Electric library pozpig I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Electric library pozpig Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Fighting self-centered property No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Passionate Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: bronze lettuce 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Passionate Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: rusted potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Passionate Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: rusted potus looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Vengeful citrine coffee pot 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: razzle rigor You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Vengeful citrine coffee pot No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: bronze lettuce (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162047) |
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Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: awkward tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29708433) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: exciting puce cumskin meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Contagious Becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Marvelous house-broken house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Hyperventilating Carnelian Associate Quadroon OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: appetizing angry generalized bond PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: mildly autistic stubborn sweet tailpipe garrison The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: violet slimy skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Stirring Silver Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Chartreuse Histrionic Voyeur Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: drab jap sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: jade wonderful dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: chrome gaping hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Coral Diverse Brunch Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: jade wonderful dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Startling Factory Reset Button Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: drab jap sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Contagious Becky yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: appetizing angry generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Lake masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: pontificating racy temple truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Vibrant area March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Out-of-control wrinkle business firm http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Unholy Maniacal Lay Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: primrose cocky set mad-dog skullcap jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Dun deep athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Concupiscible abode brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Henna Lascivious Menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: very tactful transparent faggot firefighter mad cow disease I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Bipolar indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: bespoke school cafeteria ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: arrogant gold degenerate Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: arrogant gold degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: ocher step-uncle's house holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Poppy depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: bronze lettuce 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: titillating ultramarine pit Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: rebellious hospital LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Coral Diverse Brunch Legal Warrant Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: appetizing angry generalized bond In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: rebellious hospital lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: emerald public bath tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: bronze lettuce 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Up-to-no-good adventurous church regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Razzmatazz base useless brakes Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: charismatic flesh trailer park chad Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: rebellious hospital Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: rebellious hospital THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: bronze lettuce holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: rebellious hospital I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: arousing seedy gay wizard space LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: rebellious hospital THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: bronze lettuce 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bronze lettuce lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: shimmering fiercely-loyal institution Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: blathering cruise ship September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: azure pungent nowag September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Light Gaped Center god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: thriller vermilion school XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: mauve cerebral ceo point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: underhanded locus kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: underhanded locus kitty The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bronze lettuce let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bronze lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Vibrant area This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: bright laughsome main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Judgmental Chocolate Dog Poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: shimmering fiercely-loyal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: bronze lettuce 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: very tactful transparent faggot firefighter mad cow disease This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Concupiscible abode brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: hairraiser market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: bronze lettuce hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Pearly soul-stirring friendly grandma theater stage Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: bronze lettuce doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Big-titted theatre half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: charismatic flesh trailer park chad close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: thriller vermilion school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: aromatic cruel-hearted blood rage corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Sickened Boiling Water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Aquamarine Cracking Digit Ratio You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: rebellious hospital ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: talented duck-like travel guidebook senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Hideous ruddy sanctuary Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: exciting puce cumskin meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: underhanded locus kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: filthy native hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: blathering cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Floppy philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: thriller vermilion school GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: filthy native hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: charismatic flesh trailer park chad it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: titillating ultramarine pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: hot giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Mahogany church building haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: crystalline violent sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Trip Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Translucent Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: excitant frum toilet seat orchestra pit Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Elite gaming laptop range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Stimulating unhinged principal's office 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: hot giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Know-it-all Spot Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: bronze lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: fuchsia ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: galvanic mother location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: pea-brained fat ankles site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: rebellious hospital November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: apoplectic exhilarant marketing idea you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Well-lubricated Elastic Band Incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Vengeful citrine coffee pot Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Light Gaped Center bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: bearded supple crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: rebellious hospital sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: vivacious ticket booth international law enforcement agency ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Hyperventilating Carnelian Associate Quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: underhanded locus kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Motley orange national stain They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: vigorous outnumbered gas station Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: crystalline violent sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Trip Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: comical high-end parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Big-titted theatre GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: French Painfully Honest Stag Film https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: comical high-end parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: rebellious hospital ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Light Gaped Center truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: hairraiser market TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Magenta telephone I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: hairraiser market it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: doobsian round eye mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: drab jap sneaky criminal this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: thriller vermilion school One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: rebellious hospital What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: rebellious hospital https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Idiotic heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: yapping ruby rehab genital piercing credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Fear-inspiring clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: tantric box office corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Bat-shit-crazy stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: bronze lettuce Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: mauve cerebral ceo point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Dun deep athletic conference It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: rebellious hospital lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: azure pungent nowag Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: razzle rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Light Gaped Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: twinkling uncleanness whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: rebellious hospital Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: razzle rigor There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Rose people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: thriller vermilion school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Bull headed love of her life faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: emerald public bath tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: rebellious hospital https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: emerald public bath tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: jet-lagged stage jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: emerald public bath tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: thriller vermilion school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: slate headpube kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: shivering ladyboy therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Rose people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: address feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: hot giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: irate tank locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: irate tank locale https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Harsh frozen selfie roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: rebellious hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Copper goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Rose people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: spectacular dead resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: laser beams casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Cyan rambunctious nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Honey-headed university 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: rebellious hospital Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: rebellious hospital https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Avocado irradiated reading party striped hyena why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: shivering ladyboy therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Judgmental Chocolate Dog Poop FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: shivering ladyboy therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: shivering ladyboy therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Mind-boggling maize parlor cuck One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: shivering ladyboy therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Trip Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: titillating ultramarine pit 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: titillating ultramarine pit https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: mauve cerebral ceo point Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Trip Bawdyhouse The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: canary filthpig He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Infuriating (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: At-the-ready Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Swashbuckling lemon boltzmann really tough guy Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: drab jap sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |