The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/10/15 |
| Yapping set | 12/12/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/02/17 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 01/06/16 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 01/06/16 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 06/05/16 |
| Provocative anal locus jewess | 03/26/16 |
| lascivious coral heaven | 01/02/17 |
| Exciting Hunting Ground | 10/25/18 |
| Buck-toothed theater | 12/10/15 |
| Light boistinker | 12/10/15 |
| silver wonderful gay wizard | 12/10/15 |
| honey-headed laughsome parlour | 12/10/15 |
| Diverse gunner | 12/15/15 |
| sapphire meetinghouse | 12/10/15 |
| Excitant zippy senate | 12/10/15 |
| thriller carnelian fat ankles | 12/10/15 |
| costumed corn cake menage | 12/11/15 |
| drunken impertinent shrine codepig | 12/12/15 |
| spectacular coiffed corner | 12/16/15 |
| bistre adventurous garrison | 01/04/16 |
| Dashing rose orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/11/15 |
| submissive arrogant telephone | 12/11/15 |
| Sexy big-titted cuck nibblets | 12/11/15 |
| costumed corn cake menage | 12/11/15 |
| aquamarine razzle factory reset button | 12/12/15 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 01/25/16 |
| Crusty misanthropic point dopamine | 11/10/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/12/15 |
| Jade electric piazza private investor | 12/12/15 |
| Dead Contagious Useless Brakes | 12/12/15 |
| chestnut center | 12/12/15 |
| Supple twinkling legend | 12/15/15 |
| Arousing pocket flask | 12/21/15 |
| Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat | 12/12/15 |
| bisexual hominid | 12/12/15 |
| curious dark trump supporter stage | 12/12/15 |
| Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator | 12/12/15 |
| Balding degenerate | 12/12/15 |
| motley iridescent hospital roommate | 12/12/15 |
| Excitant zippy senate | 12/15/15 |
| Excitant zippy senate | 12/16/15 |
| 180 bronze voyeur | 12/15/15 |
| Crimson Wagecucks | 12/15/15 |
| sooty vengeful stead turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| Cracking umber church building | 12/15/15 |
| Maniacal idiot address | 12/15/15 |
| Cowardly ladyboy school cafeteria | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| Vivacious gaping | 01/05/16 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 01/25/16 |
| Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef | 12/17/16 |
| Vigorous temple personal credit line | 05/18/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 08/12/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Boyish sick area | 11/09/16 |
| razzmatazz sex offender | 11/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Location | 10/22/20 |
| Confused chapel jew | 12/15/15 |
| Onyx alpha depressive | 12/16/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle spot mother | 12/16/15 |
| Burgundy regret | 12/16/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/16/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/17/15 |
| misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse | 12/18/15 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 01/06/16 |
| talented office tank | 12/18/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/21/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/21/15 |
| Arousing pocket flask | 12/21/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/30/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 12/30/15 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/04/16 |
| bistre adventurous garrison | 01/04/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/05/16 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 01/25/16 |
| misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse | 01/05/16 |
| violent startled forum pozpig | 01/05/16 |
| galvanic whorehouse karate | 01/05/16 |
| Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma | 01/05/16 |
| titillating low-t blood rage | 01/05/16 |
| Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma | 01/05/16 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 01/06/16 |
| Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma | 01/06/16 |
| titillating low-t blood rage | 01/05/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 01/06/16 |
| Arousing pocket flask | 01/07/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/08/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 01/08/16 |
| Arousing pocket flask | 01/08/16 |
| misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse | 01/09/16 |
| Arousing pocket flask | 01/10/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/18/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/19/16 |
| misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse | 01/21/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/25/16 |
| blue aphrodisiac boltzmann | 01/25/16 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 01/25/16 |
| blue aphrodisiac boltzmann | 02/09/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 09/06/16 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 11/05/18 |
| lime passionate background story | 01/29/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 02/01/16 |
| Flatulent sweet tailpipe | 02/01/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 02/01/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 02/07/16 |
| violent startled forum pozpig | 02/09/16 |
| racy institution multi-billionaire | 02/09/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 02/20/16 |
| Fighting Pale Gas Station | 02/20/16 |
| Vigorous temple personal credit line | 02/24/16 |
| Glittery Travel Guidebook | 02/24/16 |
| fishy beady-eyed new version azn | 02/27/16 |
| 180 bronze voyeur | 03/09/16 |
| Erotic ruby chad | 03/15/16 |
| silver wonderful gay wizard | 03/15/16 |
| Crimson Wagecucks | 03/16/16 |
| Topaz tanning salon | 02/24/16 |
| Violent navy mexican double fault | 02/24/16 |
| Crimson Wagecucks | 07/21/16 |
| Stirring theatre kitty cat | 02/24/16 |
| silver wonderful gay wizard | 02/27/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/02/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/04/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/09/16 |
| violent startled forum pozpig | 03/09/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/15/16 |
| Vigorous temple personal credit line | 03/15/16 |
| avocado irradiated space knife | 03/15/16 |
| marvelous generalized bond nursing home | 03/15/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/16/16 |
| Excitant zippy senate | 03/16/16 |
| Boyish sick area | 03/23/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/23/16 |
| curious dark trump supporter stage | 03/26/16 |
| Heady therapy | 03/26/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/26/16 |
| Vivacious gaping | 03/28/16 |
| Boyish sick area | 03/28/16 |
| Light boistinker | 03/28/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 08/12/16 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 11/05/18 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/28/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/29/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 03/29/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 03/29/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/29/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/29/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/01/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/04/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 04/15/16 |
| bull headed cruise ship mental disorder | 04/15/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/19/16 |
| Vermilion Exhilarant Pervert | 04/20/16 |
| Sienna Mind-boggling Headpube | 04/20/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/24/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/25/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/26/16 |
| brilliant stain coffee pot | 04/26/16 |
| Brindle Lodge Legal Warrant | 04/30/16 |
| multi-colored bespoke milk | 05/01/16 |
| multi-colored bespoke milk | 11/07/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/02/16 |
| Boyish sick area | 05/02/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/03/16 |
| Big effete partner | 05/03/16 |
| Swollen Bateful Bawdyhouse Party Of The First Part | 05/03/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/04/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 05/04/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/05/16 |
| Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator | 05/05/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 05/05/16 |
| Violent navy mexican double fault | 05/05/16 |
| Jade electric piazza private investor | 05/18/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/18/16 |
| Vigorous temple personal credit line | 05/18/16 |
| Jade electric piazza private investor | 05/18/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 05/29/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 06/20/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 06/29/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/14/16 |
| Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm | 07/15/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 07/15/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/17/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 07/17/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/21/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/22/16 |
| Up-to-no-good resort | 07/22/16 |
| Salmon People Who Are Hurt Fanboi | 07/23/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/24/16 |
| cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo | 07/25/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 07/25/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 07/27/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 08/05/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 08/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 08/12/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 08/12/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 08/12/16 |
| Trip hateful deer antler brethren | 08/12/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 08/30/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 08/30/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 09/06/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 09/13/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 09/14/16 |
| Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat | 09/14/16 |
| Painfully Honest Frisky Windowlicker | 09/15/16 |
| Disturbing Market Twinkling Uncleanness | 09/15/16 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 09/15/16 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 09/15/16 |
| Flickering cerise base | 09/15/16 |
| saffron liquid oxygen selfie | 09/19/16 |
| saffron liquid oxygen selfie | 09/19/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 09/27/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 09/24/16 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 09/27/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 09/27/16 |
| Excitant zippy senate | 09/27/16 |
| soul-stirring disrespectful rigpig church | 10/08/16 |
| Aromatic Ruddy Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency | 07/29/24 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 09/28/16 |
| Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat | 09/28/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 09/28/16 |
| Sienna Mind-boggling Headpube | 09/28/16 |
| bull headed cruise ship mental disorder | 09/28/16 |
| Slap-happy library messiness | 10/08/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 10/09/16 |
| Nofapping locale becky | 10/09/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 10/09/16 |
| seedy cobalt ticket booth main people | 10/09/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 10/10/16 |
| cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo | 10/30/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 11/01/16 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 11/01/16 |
| copper internet-worthy old irish cottage sanctuary | 11/02/16 |
| Cracking umber church building | 11/02/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 11/07/16 |
| Beta circlehead | 11/08/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 11/08/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/08/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 11/08/16 |
| appetizing range | 11/08/16 |
| comical sickened business firm philosopher-king | 11/08/16 |
| Flatulent sweet tailpipe | 11/08/16 |
| saffron liquid oxygen selfie | 11/08/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/08/16 |
| fear-inspiring histrionic incel | 11/09/16 |
| Painfully Honest Frisky Windowlicker | 11/09/16 |
| cerebral mahogany site | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 11/09/16 |
| fear-inspiring histrionic incel | 11/09/16 |
| cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic filthpig | 12/03/16 |
| Crusty misanthropic point dopamine | 12/07/16 |
| Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef | 12/17/16 |
| blathering marketing idea school | 10/11/24 |
| indigo immigrant athletic conference | 11/09/16 |
| claret bbw | 11/09/16 |
| Unhinged psychic volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| Jet-lagged Hell Toaster | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic filthpig | 11/09/16 |
| floppy cheese-eating place of business | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Jade electric piazza private investor | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| Kink-friendly abode gaming laptop | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| narrow-minded station | 11/09/16 |
| Scarlet plaza haunted graveyard | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| honey-headed laughsome parlour | 11/09/16 |
| talented office tank | 11/10/16 |
| blue aphrodisiac boltzmann | 11/10/16 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 11/10/16 |
| Red Pit | 11/10/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/10/16 |
| Cordovan judgmental elastic band den | 11/10/16 |
| Fighting Pale Gas Station | 11/10/16 |
| saffron liquid oxygen selfie | 11/14/16 |
| brunch roast beef | 11/14/16 |
| Shivering giraffe faggot firefighter | 12/04/16 |
| Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef | 12/17/16 |
| blathering marketing idea school | 10/11/24 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/25/16 |
| carmine dog poop puppy | 12/03/16 |
| seedy cobalt ticket booth main people | 12/04/16 |
| Lake field | 12/07/16 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 12/07/16 |
| carmine dog poop puppy | 12/07/16 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/02/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/02/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/02/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/02/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 03/03/20 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 01/02/17 |
| Boyish sick area | 01/16/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/20/17 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/20/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/23/17 |
| Slap-happy library messiness | 01/23/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/23/17 |
| Buff lay hairy legs | 01/23/17 |
| Slap-happy library messiness | 01/23/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/23/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/25/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 01/26/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 02/06/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 02/13/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 02/27/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 05/03/17 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/03/17 |
| Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration | 09/21/17 |
| silver wonderful gay wizard | 01/23/17 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 02/27/17 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 03/22/17 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 04/17/17 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/08/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 06/20/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 08/10/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 10/15/17 |
| Boyish sick area | 10/15/17 |
| spruce kitchen juggernaut | 10/15/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/06/17 |
| splenetic yarmulke | 11/06/17 |
| metal national electric furnace | 11/08/17 |
| Rusted box office sneaky criminal | 11/08/17 |
| Twisted Cream House | 11/13/17 |
| Boyish sick area | 12/18/17 |
| Fuchsia water buffalo | 12/18/17 |
| Boyish sick area | 12/18/17 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 01/30/18 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 06/01/18 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/18/18 |
| Boyish sick area | 07/19/18 |
| Flickering cerise base | 09/20/18 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 09/25/18 |
| Light boistinker | 10/06/18 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 10/06/18 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 10/25/18 |
| Disturbing Market Twinkling Uncleanness | 10/25/18 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 11/05/18 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 11/05/18 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 11/05/18 |
| Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease | 11/05/18 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 01/08/19 |
| Magenta Insane Home Love Of Her Life | 02/23/19 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 03/13/19 |
| Ebony dysfunction | 06/24/19 |
| Shaky puce trust fund | 06/24/19 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 11/18/19 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 02/12/20 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 02/12/20 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 03/24/20 |
| mauve weed whacker | 03/24/20 |
| Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm | 04/04/20 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 04/26/20 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 05/13/20 |
| Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm | 06/05/20 |
| casino | 06/05/20 |
| Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm | 09/09/20 |
| Hairraiser Hall | 09/09/20 |
| Buck-toothed theater | 09/09/20 |
| gold pungent scourge upon the earth | 09/12/20 |
| charcoal state | 09/24/20 |
| Shaky puce trust fund | 10/09/20 |
| Boyish sick area | 10/10/20 |
| flesh coldplay fan | 10/22/20 |
| Charismatic filthpig | 10/22/20 |
| Swashbuckling Location | 10/22/20 |
| Swashbuckling Location | 10/22/20 |
| Clear clown rehab | 03/23/22 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 10/27/20 |
| Azure sadistic police squad | 10/27/20 |
| Shaky puce trust fund | 10/30/20 |
| Boyish sick area | 11/03/20 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/22/22 |
| ivory public bath | 03/23/22 |
| queen of the night ratface | 03/23/22 |
| overrated son of senegal | 03/23/22 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 07/25/22 |
| Buck-toothed theater | 07/25/22 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 10/23/22 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 11/16/22 |
| vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge | 04/25/23 |
| Jade electric piazza private investor | 04/25/23 |
| charcoal state | 04/29/23 |
| Aromatic Ruddy Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency | 05/28/23 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 02/22/24 |
| charcoal state | 02/23/24 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 05/23/24 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 08/26/24 |
| charcoal state | 09/13/24 |
| Buck-toothed theater | 09/13/24 |
| charcoal state | 10/18/24 |
| blathering marketing idea school | 10/11/24 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 11/06/24 |
| Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator | 03/04/25 |
| Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator | 03/04/25 |
| Flickering cerise base | 03/04/25 |
| blathering marketing idea school | 03/04/25 |
| Know-it-all Fiercely-loyal Quadroon Feces | 03/04/25 |
| olive principal's office pistol | 03/05/25 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/07/25 |
| lavender kitty dingle berry | 03/07/25 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/08/25 |
| Aqua stag film stock car | 03/08/25 |
| adulterous parlor community account | 03/08/25 |
| silver wonderful gay wizard | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
| ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Yapping set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Provocative anal locus jewess 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: lascivious coral heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Exciting Hunting Ground "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Buck-toothed theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Light boistinker 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: silver wonderful gay wizard 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: honey-headed laughsome parlour Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Diverse gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: sapphire meetinghouse FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Excitant zippy senate Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: thriller carnelian fat ankles Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: costumed corn cake menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: drunken impertinent shrine codepig Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: spectacular coiffed corner Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: bistre adventurous garrison Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Dashing rose orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: submissive arrogant telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Sexy big-titted cuck nibblets 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: costumed corn cake menage November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: aquamarine razzle factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Ebony dysfunction Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Crusty misanthropic point dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Jade electric piazza private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Dead Contagious Useless Brakes lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: chestnut center March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Supple twinkling legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Arousing pocket flask 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: bisexual hominid lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: curious dark trump supporter stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Balding degenerate Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: motley iridescent hospital roommate Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Excitant zippy senate OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Excitant zippy senate And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: 180 bronze voyeur 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Crimson Wagecucks fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: sooty vengeful stead turdskin I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Cracking umber church building 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Maniacal idiot address February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Cowardly ladyboy school cafeteria You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Vivacious gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Ebony dysfunction Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Vigorous temple personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: razzmatazz sex offender Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Swashbuckling Location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Confused chapel jew This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Onyx alpha depressive 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle spot mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Burgundy regret Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: talented office tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Arousing pocket flask 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: bistre adventurous garrison flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Ebony dysfunction Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: violent startled forum pozpig 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: galvanic whorehouse karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: titillating low-t blood rage 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Odious Mewling Sound Barrier Friendly Grandma Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: titillating low-t blood rage No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Arousing pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Arousing pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Arousing pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: misunderstood chartreuse ape crackhouse looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: blue aphrodisiac boltzmann 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Ebony dysfunction You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: blue aphrodisiac boltzmann No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: lime passionate background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Flatulent sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: violent startled forum pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: racy institution multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Fighting Pale Gas Station OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Vigorous temple personal credit line PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Glittery Travel Guidebook The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: fishy beady-eyed new version azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: 180 bronze voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Erotic ruby chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: silver wonderful gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Crimson Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Topaz tanning salon hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Violent navy mexican double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Crimson Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Stirring theatre kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: silver wonderful gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: violent startled forum pozpig yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Vigorous temple personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: avocado irradiated space knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: marvelous generalized bond nursing home truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Excitant zippy senate March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: curious dark trump supporter stage http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Heady therapy Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Vivacious gaping jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Light boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: bull headed cruise ship mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Vermilion Exhilarant Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Sienna Mind-boggling Headpube I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: brilliant stain coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Brindle Lodge Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: multi-colored bespoke milk Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: multi-colored bespoke milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Big effete partner holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Swollen Bateful Bawdyhouse Party Of The First Part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Violent navy mexican double fault Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Jade electric piazza private investor This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Vigorous temple personal credit line In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Jade electric piazza private investor cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Up-to-no-good resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Salmon People Who Are Hurt Fanboi Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Trip hateful deer antler brethren LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Painfully Honest Frisky Windowlicker September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Disturbing Market Twinkling Uncleanness September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Hairraiser Hall XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Flickering cerise base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: saffron liquid oxygen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: saffron liquid oxygen selfie The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Excitant zippy senate This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: soul-stirring disrespectful rigpig church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Aromatic Ruddy Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Sable Stimulating University Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Sienna Mind-boggling Headpube This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: bull headed cruise ship mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Slap-happy library messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Nofapping locale becky Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: seedy cobalt ticket booth main people half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Hairraiser Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: copper internet-worthy old irish cottage sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Cracking umber church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Beta circlehead You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: appetizing range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: comical sickened business firm philosopher-king Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Flatulent sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: saffron liquid oxygen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: fear-inspiring histrionic incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Painfully Honest Frisky Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: cerebral mahogany site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Hairraiser Hall GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: fear-inspiring histrionic incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: cruel-hearted flushed theater stage tattoo it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Charismatic filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Crusty misanthropic point dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: blathering marketing idea school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: indigo immigrant athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: claret bbw Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Unhinged psychic volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Jet-lagged Hell Toaster 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Charismatic filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: floppy cheese-eating place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Jade electric piazza private investor this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Kink-friendly abode gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: narrow-minded station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Scarlet plaza haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: honey-headed laughsome parlour you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: talented office tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: blue aphrodisiac boltzmann Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Red Pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Cordovan judgmental elastic band den ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Fighting Pale Gas Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: saffron liquid oxygen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: brunch roast beef They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Shivering giraffe faggot firefighter Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Fragrant Drab Trailer Park French Chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: blathering marketing idea school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: carmine dog poop puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: seedy cobalt ticket booth main people GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lake field https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: carmine dog poop puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Slap-happy library messiness TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Buff lay hairy legs I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Slap-happy library messiness it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Zombie-like step-uncle's house internal respiration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: silver wonderful gay wizard this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Hairraiser Hall One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: spruce kitchen juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: splenetic yarmulke credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: metal national electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Rusted box office sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Twisted Cream House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Fuchsia water buffalo Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Flickering cerise base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Light boistinker It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Disturbing Market Twinkling Uncleanness Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Ebony dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Insecure Newt Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Magenta Insane Home Love Of Her Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Ebony dysfunction There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Shaky puce trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Hairraiser Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: mauve weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Opaque Frozen Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Hairraiser Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Buck-toothed theater Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: gold pungent scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: charcoal state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Shaky puce trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: flesh coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Charismatic filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Swashbuckling Location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Swashbuckling Location https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Clear clown rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Azure sadistic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Shaky puce trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Boyish sick area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: ivory public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: queen of the night ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: overrated son of senegal 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Buck-toothed theater A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: vibrant talking mad-dog skullcap indian lodge https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Jade electric piazza private investor why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: charcoal state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Aromatic Ruddy Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: charcoal state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: charcoal state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Buck-toothed theater One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: charcoal state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: blathering marketing idea school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Turquoise concupiscible stage masturbator https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Flickering cerise base Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: blathering marketing idea school The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Know-it-all Fiercely-loyal Quadroon Feces He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: olive principal's office pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: lavender kitty dingle berry 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: adulterous parlor community account "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Aqua stag film stock car Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: adulterous parlor community account Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: silver wonderful gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Reputation#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
|
Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |