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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction | 01/07/26 |
| Purple internal respiration school cafeteria | 01/06/26 |
| marvelous gunner range | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| bat-shit-crazy exciting pisswyrm | 01/06/26 |
| Domesticated idiotic hominid toilet seat | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| bisexual idea he suggested dog poop | 01/06/26 |
| Up-to-no-good odious sandwich | 01/07/26 |
| Electric casino | 01/06/26 |
| Vivacious sound barrier son of senegal | 01/06/26 |
| arousing hospital trust fund | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| arousing hospital trust fund | 01/06/26 |
| Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks | 01/06/26 |
| Henna histrionic patrolman | 01/07/26 |
| Racy bearded really tough guy legend | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge | 01/06/26 |
| swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| Purple internal respiration school cafeteria | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/06/26 |
| shimmering famous landscape painting idiot | 01/06/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/06/26 |
| Razzle startled stag film | 01/06/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 01/06/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 01/06/26 |
| infuriating big temple | 01/06/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 01/07/26 |
| pink filthy point volcanic crater | 01/07/26 |
| Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks | 01/07/26 |
| Comical Underhanded Parlour | 01/07/26 |
| Vivacious sound barrier son of senegal | 01/07/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 01/07/26 |
| Purple internal respiration school cafeteria | 01/07/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 01/10/26 |
| Onyx field philosopher-king | 03/05/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146
https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46 |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM Author: Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction get a life you fucking dork (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567289) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater get off this bort you closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567303) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567306) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater you are literally a closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567363) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM Author: Stubborn Low-t Dysfunction you literally are jewishly projecting yet again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568632) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM Author: Purple internal respiration school cafeteria i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567168) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM Author: marvelous gunner range LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567271) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour It's fraud they need to pay out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567336) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567449) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful
You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy" |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567477) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567484) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.
Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567497) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567492) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM Author: Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567286) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater (Peter Thiel) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567304) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy exciting pisswyrm yes its not like orange man said we run it now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567305) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: Domesticated idiotic hominid toilet seat I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567316) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567341) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567356) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567479) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM Author: bisexual idea he suggested dog poop cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567713) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM Author: Up-to-no-good odious sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568504) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM Author: Electric casino IRL Topicality moment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567307) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: Vivacious sound barrier son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567330) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: arousing hospital trust fund companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567334) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567348) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM Author: arousing hospital trust fund (guy who no longer has $1,600) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567360) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM Author: Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567396) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM Author: Henna histrionic patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568389) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Racy bearded really tough guy legend It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567517) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567526) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567542) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness Obvious yes
But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?
The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."
Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks cr, not a close call imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567451) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567465) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Carmine metal mad cow disease indian lodge The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)
The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: swashbuckling peach state twinkling uncleanness Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567493) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567498) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM Author: Purple internal respiration school cafeteria this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.
the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567514) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567489) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM Author: shimmering famous landscape painting idiot are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567539) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567682) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: Razzle startled stag film If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.
The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king His house was invaded (briefly) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567813) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49567795) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: infuriating big temple I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
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Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568381) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM Author: pink filthy point volcanic crater Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game
https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46 |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM Author: Crawly Ruby Filthpig Wagecucks now this is just a straight up scam (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568452) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM Author: Comical Underhanded Parlour Is Polymarket still fucking over its users? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568453) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM Author: Vivacious sound barrier son of senegal Just made 60,000 dollars (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568707) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568727) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: Purple internal respiration school cafeteria i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49568730) |
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Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49579920) |
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Date: March 5th, 2026 1:46 PM Author: Onyx field philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2id.#49718047) |