The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Seems obvious the S&P500 & DJIA will trim 10-15% some time in the next 12 months
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:18 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Is it shrewd to just move money completely out of equities now? And put it where? USTs? I have a hard time believing that there much more room to run with this scammy phase where 90+% of the gains are based on these imaginary future data centers that would crash the grid if they actually all got built. It’s a shame crypto got so bastardized and tied to this scam cycle, since a major part of the point of it once upon a time was to be a refuge in this kind of situation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331480) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:22 AM Author: UhOh if you think this is the play, put it into BIL or SGOV and sit back and wait. but people have been doing this for a year or two now and crying themselves to sleep at night. also when the 10% dip comes you're going to chicken out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331483) |
 |
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:27 AM Author: richard clock (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331593) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:59 AM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331664) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:11 PM Author: Mark Sanchez /thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331700) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:23 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; People like you thought this last year too. And the year before.
Eventually you’ll be right, after missing out on 50% gains.
I remember a prominent poaster loudly proclaiming he was going all cash after the first few months of the Trump run first term.
He retired a couple of years later. The S&P is up 3x since. |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:40 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; A year ago it was clear the AI hype cycle had just ramped up. There are many more indicators that it’s maturing now. The main pillar of this thesis is that we’re timing the pullback of that specific cycle. It’s certain that it’s sooner than 30 months out and the over/under would be set at around 9 months. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331509) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:51 AM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection nigga, if ther eis going to be an AI bubble it wont be for years cause Ai shit is just starting nigga no one knows how it will play out nigga
ps im retarded and gay |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:17 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; Hindsight fallacy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331570) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:17 AM Author: Nazca Redlines Ran here, toting bags of inflated paper gains (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331571) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:25 AM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection ive been selling so that means market will moon another 10-20% easily
|
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:33 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331496) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:28 AM Author: ;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;.....;;;. the money printers will continue. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331494) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:33 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) Until one day they won't. But I'm sure we'll all be fine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331499) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:34 AM Author: UhOh i can't predict the future, but i can guarun-fucking-tee you the money printers will never stop. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331500) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:21 AM Author: excellent subthread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331579) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:27 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) (japanesebusinessdood) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331591) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:37 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; The limiting factor is that we’re now selling too much debt and we’re running out of buyers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331506) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:02 AM Author: Mud If consensus was 10% drop then the market would drop 10% now.
I think the current gains aren’t sustainable. But that might just mean a decade of slow gains.
I am diversifying. Was 99% VOO for the past ten years. But I’m adding some BND and SGOV for diversification. If the market tanks 10% I’ll move back to full VOO. |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:06 AM Author: Darnell trying to time this is stupid. over the last 12 years, you could identify 2-3 times a year when equities looked way too high and a pullback was "certain."
just keep DCAing into the market. forever |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:14 AM Author: Paralegal Amos don't listen to these idiots. sell now and then buy back in when prices are 15% below today's prices. guaranteed profit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331565) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:19 AM Author: excellent subthread Market timing trading is one of the biggest low IQ tells in the known universe. You will not get it right, don't bother trying. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331575) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:28 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; But we KNEW it would keep going up last year!!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331595) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:43 AM Author: AI_concubine Ok so when should I sell guys?? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331635) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:02 PM Author: wait till biggus dickus hears of this You never sell. Just buy forever and then pass the holdings to ur heirs for DAT step up basis (they can also never sell btw) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331674) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:30 PM Their heirs? Believe it or not they can also never sell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331753) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 2:54 PM Author: peeface when
(a) you need the money or (b) clearly have somewhere better to put it (eg exuent is pushing $8 SOL)
|
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:16 PM Author: Darnell basically it's a lesson every young investor or trader learns in their first couple years. i'm always amazed when i hear 50-somethings talk about shit like this. you've had 30+ years in the market and you think you're going to time it right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331715) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:26 AM Author: Barry Stanton 55x (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331588) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:29 AM Author: ,.,,,. I'm holding strc but plan to sell on October 15th after I get my dividends with long term cap gains. I think right now can try to sell bullish outs of Amazon. If market drops you get it about 10% off current price. Otherwise just get 1%/month gain. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331603) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:28 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection wtf is a bullish puts nigga? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331738) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:01 PM Number one go up, FRIEND (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331667) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:02 PM Author: ,.,,,. Fuck I should've sold this am. This was the top. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331675) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:32 PM Author: click here to Learn More (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331759) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 2:56 PM Author: UhOh for every top there's a bottom (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49332145) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:31 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection this thread is so retarded, literally every 12m period u have a 10% drawdown u stupid nigga, did u really think u wld go anotehr year without 10% down ever nigga (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331758) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:35 PM Author: seek christ ((zurich is stained)) timing the market is very dangerous. just DCA and let do.
i've always been a big believer in the S&P or total stock market index funds, but i have put like $250k into individual stocks - TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, HOOD, RKLB (thanks poaster). i think these companies are all strong long-term HODLS. i could be wrong, who knows. |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 2:58 PM Author: animeboi (.) TSLA is absolutely trash and never made any profit if you exclude subsidies. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49332151) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 4:16 PM Author: seek christ ((zurich is stained)) as a car company, yes. they are going to own the robotaxi and home robot markets. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49332357) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 12:43 PM Author: All American protestor waving Mexican flag tp Use all your money to short the market and make a fortune. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49331793) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 3:02 PM Author: charles XII Why would 10% be enough to get you to do this? Seems dumb. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2id.#49332158) |
|
Date: October 7th, 2025 3:12 PM Author: .,,,.,.,.,.,.,,,,..,,..,.,.,., the premise of this is that AI is hype, when we are still seeing reasonable sized gains on most AI benchmarks every 1-2 months. Opus 4.1 and Sonnet 2.5 were released two months apart and saw a small but meaningful performance boost. the current training runs likely only used a maximum of around 10x the training compute of the first version of GPT-4, and the new clusters will support 100x training runs. in all likelihood, the models 2 years from now are likely to be significantly more powerful and generally useful and could plausibly justify even more crazy datacenter building.
energy is likely to only be a major obstacle by around 2030, when training runs are likely to be capped at 10,000x GPT-4 scale. |