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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| drunken organic girlfriend | 12/10/15 |
| excitant bossy national security agency | 12/12/15 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| beta stage | 01/06/16 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 01/06/16 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 06/05/16 |
| swashbuckling lavender dog poop pit | 03/26/16 |
| Deep Amber Mad-dog Skullcap Dysfunction | 01/02/17 |
| bright bisexual chapel | 10/25/18 |
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| Comical Principal's Office | 12/11/15 |
| indecent territorial crotch | 12/12/15 |
| vengeful stage depressive | 12/16/15 |
| Razzmatazz violet hall stain | 01/04/16 |
| elite grizzly theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 12/11/15 |
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| Ruby Tantric Shitlib | 12/11/15 |
| Comical Principal's Office | 12/11/15 |
| Internet-worthy pervert | 12/12/15 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 01/25/16 |
| bronze menage stock car | 11/10/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 12/12/15 |
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| purple twisted meetinghouse ape | 01/05/16 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 01/25/16 |
| Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder | 12/17/16 |
| blathering spectacular pozpig | 05/18/16 |
| fiercely-loyal green regret abode | 08/12/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
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| Passionate heaven | 10/22/20 |
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| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 12/30/15 |
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| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 01/04/16 |
| Razzmatazz violet hall stain | 01/04/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/05/16 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 01/25/16 |
| Metal sanctuary mad cow disease | 01/05/16 |
| Wonderful Police Squad | 01/05/16 |
| Razzle genital piercing | 01/05/16 |
| concupiscible narrow-minded locus | 01/05/16 |
| Bearded 180 den | 01/05/16 |
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| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 01/18/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 01/19/16 |
| Metal sanctuary mad cow disease | 01/21/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/25/16 |
| razzle-dazzle pearly hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 01/25/16 |
| razzle-dazzle pearly hominid | 02/09/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 09/06/16 |
| beta stage | 11/05/18 |
| iridescent greedy spot | 01/29/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 02/01/16 |
| Slippery site toaster | 02/01/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 02/01/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 02/07/16 |
| Wonderful Police Squad | 02/09/16 |
| Walnut vivacious hospital | 02/09/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 02/20/16 |
| Massive property | 02/20/16 |
| blathering spectacular pozpig | 02/24/16 |
| Trip jew | 02/24/16 |
| Startled Disturbing Jewess | 02/27/16 |
| talented degenerate | 03/09/16 |
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| sick set | 03/15/16 |
| arousing love of her life foreskin | 03/16/16 |
| clear party of the first part | 02/24/16 |
| Rough-skinned brunch | 02/24/16 |
| arousing love of her life foreskin | 07/21/16 |
| Maize hell macaca | 02/24/16 |
| sick set | 02/27/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/02/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/04/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/09/16 |
| Wonderful Police Squad | 03/09/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/15/16 |
| blathering spectacular pozpig | 03/15/16 |
| Aromatic plaza | 03/15/16 |
| House-broken electric coldplay fan | 03/15/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/16/16 |
| motley primrose dilemma | 03/16/16 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 03/23/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/23/16 |
| ungodly space mood | 03/26/16 |
| Red Insecure Center | 03/26/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/26/16 |
| purple twisted meetinghouse ape | 03/28/16 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 03/28/16 |
| arrogant burgundy theater | 03/28/16 |
| fiercely-loyal green regret abode | 08/12/16 |
| beta stage | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/28/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/29/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 03/29/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 03/29/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/29/16 |
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| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/01/16 |
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| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 04/15/16 |
| Boyish Wine Yarmulke | 04/15/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/19/16 |
| Floppy circlehead | 04/20/16 |
| Plum French Chef Resort | 04/20/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/24/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/25/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/26/16 |
| low-t crawly parlor | 04/26/16 |
| Light Out-of-control Ticket Booth | 04/30/16 |
| self-centered background story range | 05/01/16 |
| self-centered background story range | 11/07/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/02/16 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 05/02/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/03/16 |
| Erotic mustard locale | 05/03/16 |
| Bespoke half-breed orchestra pit | 05/03/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/04/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 05/04/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/05/16 |
| odious nudist school | 05/05/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 05/05/16 |
| Rough-skinned brunch | 05/05/16 |
| mildly autistic gas station voyeur | 05/18/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/18/16 |
| blathering spectacular pozpig | 05/18/16 |
| mildly autistic gas station voyeur | 05/18/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 05/29/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 06/20/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 06/29/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/14/16 |
| Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting | 07/15/16 |
| fiercely-loyal green regret abode | 07/15/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/17/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 07/17/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/21/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/22/16 |
| Glittery sepia institution | 07/22/16 |
| Cordovan Box Office Electric Furnace | 07/23/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/24/16 |
| exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug | 07/25/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 07/25/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 07/27/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 08/05/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 08/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 08/12/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 08/12/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 08/12/16 |
| lascivious underhanded bawdyhouse ceo | 08/12/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 08/30/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 08/30/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 09/06/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 09/13/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 09/14/16 |
| histrionic brindle lodge goyim | 09/14/16 |
| soul-stirring slimy nowag useless brakes | 09/15/16 |
| Ruddy Step-uncle's House | 09/15/16 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 09/15/16 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 09/15/16 |
| Diverse stag film faggot firefighter | 09/15/16 |
| Sinister rehab | 09/19/16 |
| Sinister rehab | 09/19/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 09/27/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 09/24/16 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 09/27/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 09/27/16 |
| motley primrose dilemma | 09/27/16 |
| chocolate fat ankles | 10/08/16 |
| domesticated dun school cafeteria fanboi | 07/29/24 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 09/28/16 |
| histrionic brindle lodge goyim | 09/28/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 09/28/16 |
| Plum French Chef Resort | 09/28/16 |
| Boyish Wine Yarmulke | 09/28/16 |
| coiffed insanely creepy address cuckold | 10/08/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 10/09/16 |
| irradiated cyan university feces | 10/09/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 10/09/16 |
| Sable library idea he suggested | 10/09/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 10/10/16 |
| exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug | 10/30/16 |
| fiercely-loyal green regret abode | 11/01/16 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 11/01/16 |
| Maroon Marvelous Sneaky Criminal | 11/02/16 |
| Autistic violent church | 11/02/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 11/07/16 |
| offensive knife | 11/08/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 11/08/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 11/08/16 |
| canary hairy legs ladyboy | 11/08/16 |
| Silver Prole | 11/08/16 |
| Slippery site toaster | 11/08/16 |
| Sinister rehab | 11/08/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| Duck-like Trailer Park | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring slimy nowag useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| thriller nursing home hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 11/09/16 |
| Duck-like Trailer Park | 11/09/16 |
| exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| odious nudist school | 11/09/16 |
| Stubborn lime weed whacker | 12/03/16 |
| bronze menage stock car | 12/07/16 |
| Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder | 12/17/16 |
| Cruel-hearted state | 10/11/24 |
| Laughsome shrine gunner | 11/09/16 |
| Chartreuse very tactful corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| Irate rebellious karate blood rage | 11/09/16 |
| Spruce garrison | 11/09/16 |
| Stubborn lime weed whacker | 11/09/16 |
| fiercely-loyal green regret abode | 11/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| mildly autistic gas station voyeur | 11/09/16 |
| Supple dragon home | 11/09/16 |
| galvanic crackhouse jap | 11/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| nubile mother becky | 11/09/16 |
| hairraiser fishy sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| gaped trump supporter water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| magical casino volcanic crater | 11/10/16 |
| razzle-dazzle pearly hominid | 11/10/16 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 11/10/16 |
| beady-eyed area roommate | 11/10/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/10/16 |
| carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth | 11/10/16 |
| Massive property | 11/10/16 |
| Sinister rehab | 11/14/16 |
| Frozen Roast Beef Mediation | 11/14/16 |
| Crusty contagious giraffe tattoo | 12/04/16 |
| Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder | 12/17/16 |
| Cruel-hearted state | 10/11/24 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/25/16 |
| Pearl appetizing forum | 12/03/16 |
| Sable library idea he suggested | 12/04/16 |
| dull fortuitous meteor | 12/07/16 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 12/07/16 |
| Pearl appetizing forum | 12/07/16 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/02/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/02/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 03/03/20 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 01/02/17 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 01/16/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/20/17 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 01/20/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/23/17 |
| coiffed insanely creepy address cuckold | 01/23/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/23/17 |
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| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/23/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/25/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 01/26/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 02/06/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 02/13/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 02/27/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 05/03/17 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/03/17 |
| free-loading costumed station old irish cottage | 09/21/17 |
| sick set | 01/23/17 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 02/27/17 |
| beta stage | 03/22/17 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 04/17/17 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/08/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 06/20/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 08/10/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 10/15/17 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 10/15/17 |
| lake titillating clown haunted graveyard | 10/15/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/06/17 |
| vermilion bateful stead idiot | 11/06/17 |
| white pea-brained persian | 11/08/17 |
| Dead Flickering Travel Guidebook Cuckoldry | 11/08/17 |
| splenetic native multi-billionaire | 11/13/17 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 12/18/17 |
| Supple dragon home | 12/18/17 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 12/18/17 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 01/30/18 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 06/01/18 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/18/18 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 07/19/18 |
| Diverse stag film faggot firefighter | 09/20/18 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 09/25/18 |
| arrogant burgundy theater | 10/06/18 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 10/06/18 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 10/25/18 |
| Ruddy Step-uncle's House | 10/25/18 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 11/05/18 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 11/05/18 |
| beta stage | 11/05/18 |
| Mind-boggling Lettuce | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 01/08/19 |
| dashing parlour rigpig | 02/23/19 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 03/13/19 |
| Charcoal stirring church building | 06/24/19 |
| mentally impaired rusted temple kitty | 06/24/19 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 11/18/19 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 02/12/20 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 02/12/20 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 03/24/20 |
| multi-colored outnumbered filthpig keepsake machete | 03/24/20 |
| Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting | 04/04/20 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 04/26/20 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 05/13/20 |
| Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting | 06/05/20 |
| aphrodisiac soggy field hunting ground | 06/05/20 |
| Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting | 09/09/20 |
| geriatric digit ratio | 09/09/20 |
| Vigorous international law enforcement agency point | 09/09/20 |
| awkward impressive corner candlestick maker | 09/12/20 |
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| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 10/10/20 |
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| drunken organic girlfriend | 10/27/20 |
| beta stage | 10/27/20 |
| mentally impaired rusted temple kitty | 10/30/20 |
| jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market | 11/03/20 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/22/22 |
| mischievous racy | 03/23/22 |
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| copper deer antler | 03/23/22 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 07/25/22 |
| Vigorous international law enforcement agency point | 07/25/22 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 10/23/22 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 11/16/22 |
| drunken organic girlfriend | 04/25/23 |
| mildly autistic gas station voyeur | 04/25/23 |
| Big Pistol Piazza | 04/29/23 |
| domesticated dun school cafeteria fanboi | 05/28/23 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 02/22/24 |
| Big Pistol Piazza | 02/23/24 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 05/23/24 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 08/26/24 |
| Big Pistol Piazza | 09/13/24 |
| Vigorous international law enforcement agency point | 09/13/24 |
| Big Pistol Piazza | 10/18/24 |
| Cruel-hearted state | 10/11/24 |
| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 11/06/24 |
| odious nudist school | 03/04/25 |
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| Diverse stag film faggot firefighter | 03/04/25 |
| Cruel-hearted state | 03/04/25 |
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| alcoholic internal respiration newt | 03/07/25 |
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| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: excitant bossy national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: swashbuckling lavender dog poop pit 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Deep Amber Mad-dog Skullcap Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: bright bisexual chapel "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Vigorous international law enforcement agency point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: arrogant burgundy theater 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: sick set 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: gaped trump supporter water buffalo Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: mewling bipolar cumskin business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: crystalline immigrant legend FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: motley primrose dilemma Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Tan Boistinker Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Comical Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: indecent territorial crotch Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: vengeful stage depressive Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Razzmatazz violet hall stain Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: elite grizzly theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: cerebral azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Ruby Tantric Shitlib 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Comical Principal's Office November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Internet-worthy pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Charcoal stirring church building Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: bronze menage stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: bearded puce nibblets boiling water lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Overrated slate kitchen wrinkle March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Shimmering startling senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: sapphire exciting gay wizard national 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: histrionic brindle lodge goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: zombie-like provocative location masturbator lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: ungodly space mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: odious nudist school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Maniacal Mint Office Boltzmann Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: big-titted hot base rigor Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: motley primrose dilemma OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: motley primrose dilemma And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: talented degenerate 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: arousing love of her life foreskin fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: scarlet public bath I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Autistic violent church 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: stimulating indian lodge sandwich February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: hilarious house sound barrier You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: purple twisted meetinghouse ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Charcoal stirring church building Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: blathering spectacular pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: vibrant community account Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Passionate heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: insane fantasy-prone athletic conference people who are hurt This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: fragrant mauve cruise ship 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Cream cuck whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: crimson adventurous theatre Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Metal sanctuary mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: magical casino volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: sapphire exciting gay wizard national 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Razzmatazz violet hall stain flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Charcoal stirring church building Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Metal sanctuary mad cow disease From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Wonderful Police Squad 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Razzle genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: concupiscible narrow-minded locus An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Bearded 180 den 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: concupiscible narrow-minded locus I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: concupiscible narrow-minded locus Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Bearded 180 den No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: sapphire exciting gay wizard national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Supple dragon home 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: sapphire exciting gay wizard national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Metal sanctuary mad cow disease http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: sapphire exciting gay wizard national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Metal sanctuary mad cow disease looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: razzle-dazzle pearly hominid 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Charcoal stirring church building You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: razzle-dazzle pearly hominid No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Supple dragon home (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31345881) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Massive property OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Rough-skinned brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29904083) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Wonderful Police Squad yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30065629) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: motley primrose dilemma March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30070601) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: ungodly space mood http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: purple twisted meetinghouse ape jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: arrogant burgundy theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Boyish Wine Yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Floppy circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Plum French Chef Resort I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30353572) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Light Out-of-control Ticket Booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: self-centered background story range Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: self-centered background story range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: odious nudist school Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Rough-skinned brunch Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30412994) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30583536) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Supple dragon home 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Glittery sepia institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Cordovan Box Office Electric Furnace Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Supple dragon home holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: lascivious underhanded bawdyhouse ceo LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Supple dragon home 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Supple dragon home lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: histrionic brindle lodge goyim Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: soul-stirring slimy nowag useless brakes September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Ruddy Step-uncle's House September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: geriatric digit ratio XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Diverse stag film faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Sinister rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Sinister rehab The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Supple dragon home let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Supple dragon home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: motley primrose dilemma This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: chocolate fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: domesticated dun school cafeteria fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: histrionic brindle lodge goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Supple dragon home 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Plum French Chef Resort This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Boyish Wine Yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: coiffed insanely creepy address cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Supple dragon home hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: irradiated cyan university feces Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Supple dragon home doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Sable library idea he suggested half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: geriatric digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Maroon Marvelous Sneaky Criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Autistic violent church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: offensive knife You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: canary hairy legs ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Silver Prole Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Slippery site toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Sinister rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Duck-like Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: soul-stirring slimy nowag useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: thriller nursing home hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: geriatric digit ratio GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Duck-like Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: exhilarant orchid antidepressant drug it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: odious nudist school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Stubborn lime weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: bronze menage stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Cruel-hearted state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Laughsome shrine gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Chartreuse very tactful corn cake Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Irate rebellious karate blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Spruce garrison 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Stubborn lime weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: fiercely-loyal green regret abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: mildly autistic gas station voyeur this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Supple dragon home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: galvanic crackhouse jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: nubile mother becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: hairraiser fishy sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: gaped trump supporter water buffalo you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: magical casino volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: razzle-dazzle pearly hominid Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: beady-eyed area roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: carnelian heady tanning salon scourge upon the earth ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Massive property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Sinister rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Frozen Roast Beef Mediation They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Crusty contagious giraffe tattoo Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Impertinent slap-happy death wish mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Cruel-hearted state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Pearl appetizing forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Sable library idea he suggested GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: dull fortuitous meteor https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Pearl appetizing forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: coiffed insanely creepy address cuckold TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: opaque charismatic lay I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: coiffed insanely creepy address cuckold it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: free-loading costumed station old irish cottage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: sick set this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: geriatric digit ratio One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: lake titillating clown haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: vermilion bateful stead idiot credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: white pea-brained persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Dead Flickering Travel Guidebook Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: splenetic native multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Supple dragon home Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Diverse stag film faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: arrogant burgundy theater It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Ruddy Step-uncle's House Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Charcoal stirring church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Mind-boggling Lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: dashing parlour rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Charcoal stirring church building There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: mentally impaired rusted temple kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: geriatric digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: multi-colored outnumbered filthpig keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: aphrodisiac soggy field hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Hideous Sooty Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: geriatric digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Vigorous international law enforcement agency point Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: awkward impressive corner candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Big Pistol Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: mentally impaired rusted temple kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Fear-inspiring (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Stubborn lime weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Passionate heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Passionate heaven https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Obsidian hateful chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: beta stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: mentally impaired rusted temple kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: jet-lagged cowardly pocket flask market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: mischievous racy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Self-absorbed toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: copper deer antler 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Vigorous international law enforcement agency point A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: drunken organic girlfriend Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: drunken organic girlfriend https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: mildly autistic gas station voyeur why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Big Pistol Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: domesticated dun school cafeteria fanboi FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Big Pistol Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Big Pistol Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Vigorous international law enforcement agency point One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Big Pistol Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Cruel-hearted state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: odious nudist school 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: odious nudist school https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Diverse stag film faggot firefighter Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Cruel-hearted state The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: confused peach He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Cracking Gaming Laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: sticky avocado indirect expression associate 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: alcoholic internal respiration newt Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: sick set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2id.#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |