scholars only: itt predict how badly SC will gape AA, VRA, SSM
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Date: March 3rd, 2013 1:03 PM Author: Jet-lagged Lemon Range
AA-Kennedy rules against Texas but uses vague language that allows schools to keep using AA.
VRA-It won't be overturned
SSM-DOMA will almost certainly be struck down, greater than even odds that Kennedy or Roberts imposes SSM on conservative states. People forge that Roberts worked on Romer vs Evans pro bono in his younger days.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2197078&forum_id=2#22746390) |
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Date: March 3rd, 2013 1:13 PM Author: Jet-lagged Lemon Range
5 justices will vote to keep things the way they are, duh.
It's hard to predict exactly how Kennedy will rule but I think that there is a 0% he completely gapes AA.
Kennedy has always been pro-gay, and he loves being on the "right" side of history. I think that he would love to be remembered as the justice who wrote the gay version of Loving vs Virginia, and that alone might be enough to put him in the liberal camp. Roberts is a smart guy and I think he supports state's rights to a reasonable degree; I don't think he believes that Alabama should be able to ban interracial marriages or disenfranchise minorities. I think it's reasonable to assume that he might feel the same way about gays.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2197078&forum_id=2#22746428) |
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Date: March 3rd, 2013 1:19 PM Author: smoky slap-happy goal in life indian lodge
Entirely true, i should say i also think 5 justices would rather defer on this (especially Roberts). I mean it's also very hard to show particular, concrete injury--I mean what would that even be in this case? This is like the prototypical case to defer to the political process because all those who oppose SSM have entirely the same injury.
OTOH, i dont think the court likes ceding its power of judicial review; I don't know that it feels comfortable dismissing the case knowing the Cal Supreme Ct. can rule on it and that the SCT wont have the power to review that constitutional decision
I don't give a shit about gay marriage, but i am pretty excited to see how the Court comes out on the standing issue in this case.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2197078&forum_id=2#22746445) |
Date: March 3rd, 2013 1:39 PM Author: judgmental box office
AA: strike down UT plan, vague language permits AA in some forms. Challengers didn't ask Court to overturn AA entirely, so the Court talks about how they shouldn't decide constitutional questions not presented, but gives enough reason to think an all-out challenge might prevail in the near future (assuming the 5 votes stay intact).
VRA: Coverage formula of Section 5 almost certainly gone, and 50% chance Section 5 is struck down entirely.
SSM: I think Kennedy sees SSM as different from the right to have gay sex so I don't think he's a sure vote to be "on the right side of history." It's looking more and more likely that one of the compromise solutions will win out even though they're somewhat incoherent -- a California only rule or an 8 state rule would basically fault states that have been solicitous to gays in all ways except giving them the title "marriage." I think 50% chance it will be a compromise result, 25% chance they strike down Prop 8 and declare a right to SSM that would apply to all states, 15% chance it's upheld in its entirety, 10% chance it's dismissed for lack of standing.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2197078&forum_id=2#22746509) |
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