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Spent 1 hour on RCP and couldn't come up with a realistic scenario for Trump win
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:06 PM Author: purple curious kitchen Look at this map. Which is VERY generous to Trump. He's basically starting a hand with AK suited and the only way to win is a royal flush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
The loss of VA/CO/NM has basically pwned the GOP. |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:09 PM Author: crawly sienna doctorate http://www.270towin.com/#linkjump
Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa are all critical. |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:11 PM Author: Hideous Burgundy Principal's Office Cuck cr and he isn't winning ohio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000571) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:15 PM Author: marvelous wagecucks windowlicker what makes you say that? i think ohio is more likely than Florida (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000603) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:29 PM Author: Hideous Burgundy Principal's Office Cuck there is no way he wins Ohio and loses Florida, but he probably loses both. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001787) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:36 PM Author: razzmatazz lettuce how come? Very different states. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001838) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:15 PM Author: Apoplectic Dun Haunted Graveyard Police Squad ? he's more likely to win ohio than fl or va (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000606) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:16 PM Author: purple curious kitchen CR. Which is the problem. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000609) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:21 PM Author: Gold Circlehead ohio way more likely than va (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000651) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:14 PM Author: purple curious kitchen He has to win all 3 of Ohio/Penn/Florida. If Hillary wins 1 plus VA, she wins. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000596) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:20 PM Author: Titillating Slimy Skinny Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000638) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:11 PM Author: vivacious university he can win if he starts debating jill stein (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000564) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:20 PM Author: Titillating Slimy Skinny Woman That's a brilliant point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000646) |
Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:12 PM Author: arousing translucent stead regret Michigan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000581) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:14 PM Author: purple curious kitchen Trump can Win Michigan, Ohio, and PA, but if he loses Florida, he still loses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000599) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:14 PM Author: nighttime hateful sandwich shrine oh, my god! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000595) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:17 PM Author: purple curious kitchen Just looking at the Bush/Gore map, you see how screwed he is.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2000/president/2000_elections_electoral_college_map.html
CO/VA/NV are forever lost. |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:19 PM Author: flesh tripping hospital dopamine This poker analogy is awful. Anyway, the map is challenging, but if he can make inroads into a rust belt dem state like PA then he could do it. I think oh and fl actually look ok for him. Odds are against him but he has a shot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000635) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:20 PM Author: purple curious kitchen He can win Florida/Ohio/PA but if he loses VA and NC, he still loses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000648) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:22 PM Author: flesh tripping hospital dopamine He won't lose nc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000660) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:24 PM Author: purple curious kitchen He has as much a chance of losing NC as he does of winning PA/Michigan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000671) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:44 PM Author: Contagious business firm NC doesn't really matter. There's no scenario in which he's winning FL/OH/PA but losing NC. If Hillary is winning NC, it's already a landslide. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001903) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:22 PM Author: purple curious kitchen He can win Michigan/OH/PA/NC and still lose if Hillary carries Florida and VA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000658) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:28 PM Author: Glittery corner If he can pick up Iowa and NH it's a squeeker
http://www.270towin.com/maps/w11gP
I think it is more likely to lose MI and win FL tho |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:27 PM Author: purple curious kitchen Good map. Probably the most likely map if he wins. But I can't see him sweeping the midwest and Florida. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001777) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:45 PM Author: Contagious business firm Yeah, almost no scenario in which he wins MI but loses FL. He would be over 300 EVs by the time he won MI. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001918) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 1:27 PM Author: offensive internal respiration It does look insurmountable for Trump. However, there is the theory that the swing states tend to "swing" together so that there really isn't a "blue wall". Nate Silver argued this last year. Unless you have something like the 2000 election (popular vote difference of less than .5%) the winner of the popular vote will also win enough of the swing states to get to 270. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31000688) |
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Date: November 17th, 2016 12:30 PM Author: Aromatic Selfie Tanning Salon lol, so close until the very wrong last sentence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31932492) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:32 PM Author: razzmatazz lettuce FL plus 4 of 5 between NC OH PA VA or AZ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001807) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:34 PM Author: Bateful Orchestra Pit Mexican He has a real shot at taking Jersey and NY and maybe PA (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001823) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:42 PM Author: purple curious kitchen (xo2015) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31001895) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 3:41 PM Author: Contagious business firm FL, OH, and IA would be givens for Trump if the election were close enough to favor him.
Then he would just need to win one of PA or VA, or both NV and NH. Very doable. |
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Date: November 17th, 2016 12:26 PM Author: umber private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3296524&forum_id=2#31932464) |
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