The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Trump +6.4% in LA Times
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:29 AM Author: sapphire idea he suggested http://www.latimes.com/politics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419748) |
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:31 AM Author: Odious nubile university LOL at that poll (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419750) |
 |
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:32 AM Author: sapphire idea he suggested , he lisped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419751) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:33 AM Author: Odious nubile university someone's dancing in November. I'm guessing it won't be you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419755) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:39 AM Author: godawful background story friendly grandma whats wrong with that poll? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419764) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:40 AM Author: Odious nubile university Tracking methodology. It doesn't consider electoral issues. Polling fatigue, etc. etc. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419765) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:45 AM Author: godawful background story friendly grandma there is nothing "wrong" with this poll. its a tracking poll and you can get very useful information especially trend lines. every poll has its strengths and weaknesses
i actually like this poll a lot because it asks ppl to estimate probability of voting instead of binary yes or no |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:48 AM Author: Odious nubile university I don't think you understand what polling fatigue is. I was a strategic planner for a big ad agency in a previous life. Just don't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419771) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:53 AM Author: godawful background story friendly grandma explain. i am not a polling expert by any means
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/ |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:56 AM Author: Odious nubile university Polling fatigue is asking the same question and tracking the same ~2,000 people over time. This isn't a representative sample in any sense.
The people that continually answer these tracking studies tend to be more conservative and follow through with answers over time. It's what they do.
These are the rule followers and will answer out of some duty they feel compelled by. |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:31 AM Author: primrose bossy karate space The other noted problem with LAT poll is that they ask respondents who they voted for in last elecftion and then use that to do some statistical change to the poll based on voter ID, prob is that ppl tend to lie abt who they voted for (more will say they voted for obama cause he won), result is that it benefits reptiles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419895) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 8:15 AM Author: Charismatic silver immigrant location UNSKEW! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31420019) |
|
Date: February 25th, 2018 6:01 PM Author: arousing degenerate athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#35485646) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2018 12:34 PM Author: sapphire idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#35498560) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:32 AM Author: Umber Nursing Home Rigor 19.5 percent of black vote (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419753) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:35 AM Author: snowy boiling water yuuuuuuuuge lead among young voters, wow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419757) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:24 AM Author: Cerise Metal Corner Goal In Life This and 20% of blacks are both completely realistic things that could totally happen on election day, right trumpmos? After correcting for their obvious sample problems, this poll paints basically a tied race like all the others. It's now 100% what happens in the debates, and given where things were a month ago trumpmos should be delighted they have made it that far back. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419877) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:24 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge debates have proven to be flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419878) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 1:24 PM Author: Slippery vermilion home all the old rules are out.
debates will be the deciding factor, barring a wild october surprise |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 1:31 PM Author: dull antidepressant drug faggotry This was before they featured a yuge media personality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31422143) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:17 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge Why is this poll consistently an outlier in one direction? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419874) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:25 AM Author: Beady-eyed bawdyhouse dysfunction it polls the same group every time. it could very well be that the original sample group was skewed towards trump. or, and perhaps its wishful thinking, it could be that this poll is the one that's actually right. tune in in november to find out! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419880) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:28 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge Interesting you would think someone that has to vote for Trump weekly would be more ashamed and it would skew in the other direction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419884) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:29 AM Author: Odious nubile university It's a fucking tracking poll. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419887) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:29 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge ? I'm dumb. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419888) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:32 AM Author: Odious nubile university People that continually are tracked and answer the questions over time tend to be conservative. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419897) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:32 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge He's leading 18-34 yos in this poll by 9 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419899) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:35 AM Author: Comical sable brethren twinkling uncleanness LOL, okay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419901) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: primrose bossy karate space they only polled stormfront members and XO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419903) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419904) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 8:20 AM Author: Charismatic silver immigrant location Lmao because people that obey are reptiles? LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31420031) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: primrose bossy karate space http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419902) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:39 AM Author: primrose bossy karate space All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.
The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.
The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.
If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day. |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:42 AM Author: Peach razzle lodge I think Trump can win with merely a 5.4 national lead. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419912) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:43 AM Author: primrose bossy karate space read the entire article, they basically admit their pol is total shit and unlike any other polls, im sure trump is ggetting 19% of black vote and up 9% with youngs, lol
i dont even know why the media pays attention to the poll given its in its first year and has been an insane outlier |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 7:45 AM Author: Comical sable brethren twinkling uncleanness It's a retarded methodology as well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419923) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 1:09 PM Author: sapphire idea he suggested is this TT? surprisingly level headed poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31421965) |
|
Date: September 16th, 2016 1:21 PM Author: Sienna messiness church building lol you idiot it's copy/paste from right here: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html
TT is fully brain damaged and unhinged. |