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Trump +6.4% in LA Times
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:29 AM Author: Supple Temple http://www.latimes.com/politics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419748) |
Date: September 16th, 2016 4:31 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe LOL at that poll (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419750) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:32 AM Author: Supple Temple , he lisped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419751) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:33 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe someone's dancing in November. I'm guessing it won't be you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419755) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:39 AM Author: Flickering point pocket flask whats wrong with that poll? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419764) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:40 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe Tracking methodology. It doesn't consider electoral issues. Polling fatigue, etc. etc. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419765) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:45 AM Author: Flickering point pocket flask there is nothing "wrong" with this poll. its a tracking poll and you can get very useful information especially trend lines. every poll has its strengths and weaknesses
i actually like this poll a lot because it asks ppl to estimate probability of voting instead of binary yes or no |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:48 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe I don't think you understand what polling fatigue is. I was a strategic planner for a big ad agency in a previous life. Just don't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419771) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:53 AM Author: Flickering point pocket flask explain. i am not a polling expert by any means
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/ |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:56 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe Polling fatigue is asking the same question and tracking the same ~2,000 people over time. This isn't a representative sample in any sense.
The people that continually answer these tracking studies tend to be more conservative and follow through with answers over time. It's what they do.
These are the rule followers and will answer out of some duty they feel compelled by. |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:31 AM Author: lilac parlor The other noted problem with LAT poll is that they ask respondents who they voted for in last elecftion and then use that to do some statistical change to the poll based on voter ID, prob is that ppl tend to lie abt who they voted for (more will say they voted for obama cause he won), result is that it benefits reptiles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419895) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 8:15 AM Author: Onyx menage striped hyena UNSKEW! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31420019) |
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Date: February 25th, 2018 6:01 PM Author: Blue histrionic trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#35485646) |
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Date: February 27th, 2018 12:34 PM Author: Supple Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#35498560) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:32 AM Author: zippy partner 19.5 percent of black vote (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419753) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 4:35 AM Author: garnet university yuuuuuuuuge lead among young voters, wow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419757) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:24 AM Author: Aquamarine federal private investor This and 20% of blacks are both completely realistic things that could totally happen on election day, right trumpmos? After correcting for their obvious sample problems, this poll paints basically a tied race like all the others. It's now 100% what happens in the debates, and given where things were a month ago trumpmos should be delighted they have made it that far back. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419877) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:24 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution debates have proven to be flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419878) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 1:24 PM Author: fear-inspiring immigrant nursing home all the old rules are out.
debates will be the deciding factor, barring a wild october surprise |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 1:31 PM Author: domesticated library jap This was before they featured a yuge media personality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31422143) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:17 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution Why is this poll consistently an outlier in one direction? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419874) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:25 AM Author: Pontificating Indian Lodge Ceo it polls the same group every time. it could very well be that the original sample group was skewed towards trump. or, and perhaps its wishful thinking, it could be that this poll is the one that's actually right. tune in in november to find out! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419880) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:28 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution Interesting you would think someone that has to vote for Trump weekly would be more ashamed and it would skew in the other direction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419884) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:29 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe It's a fucking tracking poll. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419887) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:29 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution ? I'm dumb. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419888) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:32 AM Author: Cheese-eating Faggotry Sweet Tailpipe People that continually are tracked and answer the questions over time tend to be conservative. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419897) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:32 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution He's leading 18-34 yos in this poll by 9 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419899) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:35 AM Author: Dull 180 Whorehouse LOL, okay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419901) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: lilac parlor they only polled stormfront members and XO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419903) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419904) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 8:20 AM Author: Onyx menage striped hyena Lmao because people that obey are reptiles? LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31420031) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:36 AM Author: lilac parlor http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419902) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:39 AM Author: lilac parlor All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.
The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.
The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.
If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day. |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:42 AM Author: Burgundy Boltzmann Institution I think Trump can win with merely a 5.4 national lead. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419912) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:43 AM Author: lilac parlor read the entire article, they basically admit their pol is total shit and unlike any other polls, im sure trump is ggetting 19% of black vote and up 9% with youngs, lol
i dont even know why the media pays attention to the poll given its in its first year and has been an insane outlier |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 7:45 AM Author: Dull 180 Whorehouse It's a retarded methodology as well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31419923) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 1:09 PM Author: Supple Temple is this TT? surprisingly level headed poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3353229&forum_id=2#31421965) |
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Date: September 16th, 2016 1:21 PM Author: galvanic gunner puppy lol you idiot it's copy/paste from right here: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html
TT is fully brain damaged and unhinged. |