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Buddy wants me to invest in a MFH brewpub
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:21 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Thoughts?
They'd brew onsite and sell to people in the taproom along with bar food. They'd try to self distribute on site and via local delivery
I'm skeptical |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:14 AM Author: razzle preventive strike location Dumb dumb dumb dumb investment. Never invest and bars and restaurants. Period. Case closed. No discussion. |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:16 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Yeah i'm probably shaking out this way
I get a 1x1 meeting to try the beer and ask questions though so why not |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:39 AM Author: appetizing aqua stage private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888288) |
Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:22 AM Author: smoky filthy native travel guidebook http://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=3553170&mc=49&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887750) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:23 AM Author: Impertinent galvanic stage I think LA County has more room for growth but OC and SD are saturated (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887756) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:23 AM Author: Flatulent goyim they say owning a restaurant is like standing in a kitchen tearing up $100 bills
I suspect this would probably be the same |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:24 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs I tend to agree
These things are also restaurants first beer second |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:24 AM Author: Chocolate Concupiscible Space Roast Beef literally no chance this works in MFH
you'd need to start in queens or LIC and prove your concept first |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:25 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Explain
Rent costs just too high?
I am smart on technology and financial cos. I know literally nothing about these types of companies other than restauarants are awful investments |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:28 AM Author: pearly bearded pit toilet seat How many brew pubs that brew beer on-site are there in MFH now?
Hint: it is a nice, round number. |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:29 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Paulaner Brauhaus on Bowery off the top of my head (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887791) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:45 AM Author: Chocolate Concupiscible Space Roast Beef For MFH you are competing against other restaurants that have no problem losing money, and you need to have a big following almost immediately (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887865) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:44 PM Author: duck-like arrogant weed whacker property That's a good place but remember that's a pretty big brand it's attached to--probably more resources to support something like that than a couple of well off bros (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906584) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:28 AM Author: pearly bearded pit toilet seat Really dumb fucking use of space unless they can build it on the roof or someplace where you can't be putting asses in seats. (Or if this is in gentrified Harlem or something.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887778) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:28 AM Author: multi-colored dun library What about my submarine brunch restaurant idea? I could use some cash. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887781) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:30 AM Author: Adventurous Flushed Nibblets Place Of Business I know guys who are basically the first to do it in the center of Kiev and unless they have a complete year of fnancial runway, they will certainly fail.
after 12 months there's a 60-70% chance they fail
think about how many beers you need to sell in a month to pay the rent and salaries. it's probably crazy high |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:32 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Yeah I have no knowledge about the margins on this type of business and the required turnover necessary to generate any type of returns
They want me to sign an NDA for an investment memorandum, maybe I'll do that and at least see what their biz model and assumptions look like |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:44 AM Author: Flatulent goyim sensible, take a look, but be VERY skeptical
everything about this "run fast, run far" |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:33 AM Author: Diverse legend You need way too much space to brew beer in mfh. Rent would be insane. Consider that brewpubs are barely viable in cities like Denver and Seattle, where you might stay in business but no one is making actual $
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:42 AM Author: Ivory bateful filthpig couple issues:
does your buddy have experience brewing? if not you'll have to find a master brewer with beer recipes or pay someone to develop beer recipes
running brewery and restaurant is more or less running two completely different businesses in the same building. if buddy does not have experience running either fucked.
the reason there are not many brew pubs in MFH is you have to pay for all the square footage for the fermentation tanks, grain and hop storage etc. My recollection is that the way to go on that is have some brewed on site but contract brew for the rest and then ship it in to cut down on square footage. I think that is what heartland (think that's the name the brewery in midtown) does.
Check out brewing business with tim Nichols podcast to get an idea of running a brewery and a brew pub. might help you get a better feel for what you'd be getting into
Edit:
Also check out book by the founders of Brooklyn brewing. They have a big chapter on distribution in MFH and what a cluster it is |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:06 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Thx
Let's say rent of $70K per month (figure i've been given). $840K per annum Supply of 3000 bbl a year (another figure I've been given). Each bbl = 250 or so pints. Total. of 750K pints.
Assuming demand fully takes down your supply, at $8 a pint you'd generate $6M of revenue. Gross margins of probably 80% or so. So $4.8M gross profit. Rent takes 840K so call it $4M pre salaries and other opex.
I mean that rough math doesn't seem too nuts but that's me spitballing
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:13 AM Author: Clear gas station affirmative action you're going to lose a good chunk of those pints to theft, spillage, and cleaning your lines. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888058) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:15 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Fair
Also assumes full demand which is still tbd
Have to advertise etc as well |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:17 AM Author: Mauve office yarmulke i dont think the margins are what you think they are. distributor margins are far lower than selling to public
you think they can generate demand for, and physically sell, 750k pints, to people who drop into the store? figure out how many they would have to sell per hour or whatever, how much capacity the place would have, and how often people would need to order beer (at all hours) to make it happen. highly unrealistic |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:50 AM Author: Mauve office yarmulke There is a reason breweries are all in shitty areas of ton, you need a lot of room and rents in nice area are way to high to sustain the relatively low margin of selling beer on site and the bsolutely razorthin margin of selling to distributors (who take a cut before selling to stores)
Sounds like he wants to open a restaurant that is also a brewery which is a terrible idea. If he wanted to do a brewery properly he would find thr cheapest shitty real estate posible, focus on making good beer and winning the market, then open up a public drinking area on the side. Focusing on restaurant first and brewing second is a recipe for getting squish like gtape |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 10:55 AM Author: thriller indian lodge this is a very novel concept that no one else has thought of. I'm sure it will do very well. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887936) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:13 AM Author: violet volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888059) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:01 AM Author: bossy station regret Is your buddy licensed? I know a guy who wants to run a brewery and he seemed to indicate that the steps required to run your own are a shitshow. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32887981) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:08 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs "Farm brewer license" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888014) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:39 AM Author: bossy station regret So costs are also going to be higher due to local ingredient requirements? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888283) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:39 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Yeah sounds like a nonstarter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888291) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:16 AM Author: transparent vigorous cruise ship these businesses are doing well if they have 8% margins (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888088) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:40 AM Author: appetizing aqua stage private investor https://www.google.com/amp/www.newyorker.com/business/currency/the-thrill-of-losing-money-by-investing-in-a-manhattan-restaurant/amp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888295) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:56 AM Author: Adventurous Flushed Nibblets Place Of Business "My status as a one-forty-second owner of a seventy-seven-seat restaurant has not been a complete disaster. The restaurant survived seven years on a competitive stretch of NoHo, in Manhattan, and it looks as if I’ll lose only a third to half of my investment. The two decent young men who opened the restaurant remained decent throughout, if numbed by how hard it has been to support their families with a business that has grossed, consistently, two million dollars per year."
jfc.. |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 11:45 AM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube I cosign everything said above. Also, aren't liquor licenses a massive shitshow to get unless you have pull with the city council or whatever authority is in charge of dispensing them?
A brewpub could work in a developing/gentrifying area, like Astoria (quite possibly a bad example because of the Astoria Beergarden) or Inwood/Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights (which is technically MFH) or Rockaway Beach. Places with a captive audience. In most of MFH you're competing against all the other bar/restaurant options.
Then there's the issue of promotion. If you don't have a big name that helps to give this brewpub buzz, you're going to need one hell of a marketing campaign to get people in the door.
Does this buddy of yours have experience in food and bev? |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 12:12 PM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Nah. Former finance guy flameout partnering with a brewmaster
I'm going to meet the brewmaster with him, try a few beers, and give my regrets
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 1:58 PM Author: Ivory bateful filthpig if still considering even a bit try and get as much info as you can about brewmaster as well. where else has he worked? has he only homebrewed? does he have experience at a brew pub as opposed to a production brewing? is he going to be pissed if he is cranking out just IPAs pale ales and stouts instead of a experimental barrel aging sour program (which would be wholly undueable in MFH)? what stake would brewmaster in business?
some brewmasters can think they are unique snowflakes creating art rather than running an actual business and can be hard to reconcile them to that fact |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 12:19 PM Author: thriller indian lodge they'd really be better off trying this somewhere other than the NYC area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888606) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 12:21 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube Absolutely, but a lot of smaller cities are getting "cool" based on the presence of a lot of these craft beer brewpubs.
This may even work better in, say, Jersey City. |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 12:28 PM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs His whole pitch is there aren't any in MFH and thus this will make him unique and all the hipster fucks that go to Radegast, Alewerks, etc in williamsburg will go to this place (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32888689) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 2:00 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube I just did a quick Yelp and there seem to be several brewpubs in MFH, and even more craft beer places like George Keeley's or Pony Bar that have a ton of random craftbrews on tap that are displayed on some type of screen on top of the bar, as well as places like Ginger Man or that beergarden by Grand Central.
Something like this could work in an up-and-coming neighborhood where people don't have that many local options quite yet. Think captive audience.
What are you defining as a "brewpub"? A place that brews its own beer and sells it? |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 2:01 PM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Brews own beer on premise and sells to patrons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32889502) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 2:06 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube OK. Everything I said above still stands. I'm sure the bar will sell beer other than its own brews, so this place is basically competing with the Williamsburg places as well as Pony Bar-style places and Ginger Man-style places as well as any of those beergarden-style places that already exist in MFH or MFH-adjacent parts of outer boroughs (LIC, Williamsburg).
Put a place like this on 99th and 2nd or in certain parts of Harlem by the 125th Street subway and it could work well. Again, think of a neighborhood with a captive audience who would rather not schlep 30 minutes to get to a place like this, and can use this place as their "local". |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 2:38 PM Author: Slippery amber dragon As a huge beer fan I see little appeal in visiting this type of brewpub, as opposed to a craft beer bar that simply sells a wide variety of beers from various brewers. Of which there are many in MFH.
Why would you want to go to what is basically a restaurant in which your drink choices will be confined to untested brews from a largely unknown brand? Brewery tours are cool but they're largely a one-off thing and not something you seem to be contemplating here.
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 2:15 PM Author: cowardly supple mental disorder university Please name it MFH Brewing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32889629) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:42 AM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Ljl I just got financial projections. This guy thinks he can make 40% operating margins with a brewery in manhattan
Spending next to nothing on sales and marketing
JFC now I know why he flamed out in finance |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:44 AM Author: lime self-centered electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906148) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:46 AM Author: appetizing aqua stage private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906165) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:07 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube Someone once told me that unless you have legit celebs with hundreds of thousands of Instagram followers promoting your lifestyle business (restaurant, fashion line, vodka, whatever), you need to invest at least 4-5x on sales and marketing as you do on R&D. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906311) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 2:23 PM Author: thriller indian lodge should have went MBB instead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32907458) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:42 AM Author: Laughsome rigor doctorate This idea sounds TTT as fuck, but I am down to invest in an XO Dive Bar with some MFHmos. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906134) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:43 AM Author: lime self-centered electric furnace Bar-a-Lago? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906139) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:43 AM Author: Laughsome rigor doctorate sounds 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906144) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:46 AM Author: appetizing aqua stage private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906168) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 11:45 AM Author: bonkers slimy roommate I have a piece of a couple restaurants, it's been a good investment so far (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906162) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:37 PM Author: Boyish cuckoldry market I have a hard time understanding the appeal of brewpubs now that microbrews have proliferated to such an extent that a wide selection of just about any type of beer imaginable is easily accessible to everyone. First, beer produced by prewbubs is almost never as good as commercially available alternatives. Second, I don't want to drink new beers while I am eating. Third, it is very difficult for brewpubs to retain competent brewmasters. If the brewpub's brewmaster is good, he will get hired away by a microbrewery, who will be able to pay him much more than what he can earn at a brewpub.
If your buddies want to launch a beer-centric concept, it should involve having a wide selection of microbrews on tap. There have been a couple of these types of establishments open up in my city, and while they have been a less than perfect implementation of the concept, they appear to be very successful. |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:40 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube "If your buddies want to launch a beer-centric concept, it should involve having a wide selection of microbrews on tap. There have been a couple of these types of establishments open up in my city, and while they have been a less than perfect implementation of the concept, they appear to be very successful."
You don't live in MFH, do you?
I think this place (a microbrew/craft beer bar) could succeed in certain parts of MFH that are gentrifying and subway-inconvenient (certain parts of the UES and Harlem, for example). They kind of did this with ABV, a pretty solid wine bar that's in the upper 90s which succeeds because it's the only place of its kind up there. No one from outside the neighborhood will travel to that neighborhood to check it out, but the captive audience keeps that place in business. |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:43 PM Author: bossy station regret This isn't a microbrew/craft beer bar. The concept of taking advantage of a captive audience doesn't align with the idea of an overly heavy overhead spot where they're brewing their own beer, therefore wasting space. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906574) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:45 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube I was referring to that dood's assertion that a "beer-centric establishment" like a microbrew/craft beer bar could work in MFH based on the fact that a few of those types of places work in his city (which I strongly suspect is not MFH).
I agree 100% with your last sentence re: brewpubs. |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 2:12 PM Author: Boyish cuckoldry market To clarify, I didn't claim that a beer-centric concept would be good for MFH, only that it would be better than a brewpub. Both concepts would likely be SPS for MFH, but the microbrew beer bar would be less SPS. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32907380) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:41 PM Author: bossy station regret Right, nobody's going to elect to go to some place with only beer they've never heard of. You're gaining nothing by brewing on site. Unless you have some sort of insane gimmick like calorie free beer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906559) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:56 PM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Correct. I can go to Ginger man and get 200 objectively excellent craft beers or I can go to this place and 2 of the 8 they are serving are good and the rest are shit.
Outside of the novelty factor of brewing onsite this is a non starter. |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:57 PM Author: lime self-centered electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32907237) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:57 PM Author: lime self-centered electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32907239) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 12:50 PM Author: motley zippy house french chef I have a wine version of this as a client. Its a no go. And they are in a lower end market. Rents will destroy everything. Labor is a shitshow. Product loss and costs of goods sold make no sense.
Just no. Trust me. |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:19 PM Author: Mentally impaired marketing idea hairy legs Yeah I took a look at the pitch and struggled not to laugh. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3560611&forum_id=2#32906881) |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:21 PM Author: Contagious brunch wrinkle how does your buddy completely flame out of finance and decide this is the next step?
is there not a chill corp gig or something to move onto?
this scares me about finance, you just randomly get pwned at 30 |
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Date: March 24th, 2017 1:30 PM Author: ebony fantasy-prone locus headpube Some people want nothing more to do with anything GC-related after 10 or so years working for BIGBANK. I know a few finance flameouts who now are yoga / Soulcycle instructors or who are founders of some mini fashion line that does just OK.
I do suspect that a lot of these people who start lifestyle businesses like this have family money (including a spouse who still sucks off the teat of GC) or investors with a lot of family money. |