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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
Titillating Lime Space
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
Magenta native boistinker
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
Pearl haunting lodge
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
Magenta native boistinker
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
Pearl haunting lodge
  11/16/17
Thank
electric trump supporter
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
Titillating Lime Space
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
Magenta native boistinker
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
Exhilarant brethren
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
Spruce flatulent skinny woman
  11/21/17
same
nighttime state
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
heady area
  11/21/17
same
gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
vermilion hell associate
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
vermilion hell associate
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
Exhilarant brethren
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
Plum generalized bond corner
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
balding windowlicker athletic conference
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
Spruce flatulent skinny woman
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
Pearl haunting lodge
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
heady area
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
Titillating Lime Space
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
heady area
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
irradiated striped hyena
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
heady area
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
irradiated striped hyena
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
heady area
  11/21/17
...
irradiated striped hyena
  11/24/17
welp
heady area
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
Titillating Lime Space
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
irradiated striped hyena
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
Titillating Lime Space
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
Titillating Lime Space
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
heady area
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
Titillating Lime Space
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
Pearl haunting lodge
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
Titillating Lime Space
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
nighttime state
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
Titillating Lime Space
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
nighttime state
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
Titillating Lime Space
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
nighttime state
  02/20/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  02/20/18
...
nighttime state
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
Titillating Lime Space
  02/20/18
What happens now
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
Titillating Lime Space
  02/21/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  06/12/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  02/20/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
heady area
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
Titillating Lime Space
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
heady area
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
Titillating Lime Space
  03/15/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  03/19/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
Insecure stirring persian spot
  03/19/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
Pearl haunting lodge
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
Titillating Lime Space
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
heady area
  03/19/18
when moon
nighttime state
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
Titillating Lime Space
  03/20/18
ty
nighttime state
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
Dashing chocolate newt
  03/24/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
Titillating Lime Space
  03/23/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/11/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/17/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/26/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/26/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/26/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
Titillating Lime Space
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
nighttime state
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
Pearl haunting lodge
  04/26/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
Pearl haunting lodge
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  05/09/18
:(
Spruce flatulent skinny woman
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
Sepia dog poop
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
Spruce flatulent skinny woman
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
nighttime state
  06/11/18
We maed it.
Spruce flatulent skinny woman
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
nighttime state
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
Fuchsia Hideous Site
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
charcoal stead double fault
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
Hilarious theater
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
Titillating Lime Space
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
bespoke idea he suggested lettuce
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
Hilarious theater
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
nighttime state
  06/13/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
Titillating Lime Space
  06/13/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
nighttime state
  06/13/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
nighttime state
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
Titillating Lime Space
  06/13/18
...
Orange keepsake machete incel
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
Titillating Lime Space
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Magenta native boistinker

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: Magenta native boistinker

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: electric trump supporter

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Magenta native boistinker

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: Exhilarant brethren

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Spruce flatulent skinny woman

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: nighttime state

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: heady area

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: gaped bawdyhouse personal credit line

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: vermilion hell associate

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: vermilion hell associate

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: Exhilarant brethren

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: Plum generalized bond corner

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: balding windowlicker athletic conference

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: Spruce flatulent skinny woman

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: heady area

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: heady area

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: irradiated striped hyena

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: heady area

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: irradiated striped hyena

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: heady area

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: irradiated striped hyena



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: heady area

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: irradiated striped hyena

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: heady area

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: nighttime state

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: nighttime state

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: nighttime state

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: nighttime state



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: heady area

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: heady area

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: Insecure stirring persian spot

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: heady area

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: nighttime state

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: nighttime state

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



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Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: Dashing chocolate newt

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: nighttime state

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: Pearl haunting lodge

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: Spruce flatulent skinny woman

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: Sepia dog poop

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: Spruce flatulent skinny woman

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: nighttime state

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: Spruce flatulent skinny woman

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: nighttime state

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Fuchsia Hideous Site

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: charcoal stead double fault

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Hilarious theater

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: bespoke idea he suggested lettuce

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Hilarious theater

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: nighttime state

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: nighttime state

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: nighttime state

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: Charismatic tantric box office mad-dog skullcap

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: Orange keepsake machete incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: Titillating Lime Space

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)