How worried should we be about China?
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 15th, 2017 3:41 PM Author: Mind-boggling sepia station
100%, but USA is fucked, so no point to worry anyway
USA has no chance
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34694241) |
Date: November 15th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Provocative angry milk
They also culturally have far less concern with things like ethics from top to bottom -- they're playing a different game and winning.
Their mean IQ is also materially higher (105 v 98) and the trend is increasingly divergent.
Pepper your angus to live in a larger version of the UK by the time you're in retirement.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34694265) |
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Date: November 15th, 2017 4:31 PM Author: Crimson twinkling uncleanness set
Ljl at using nominal figures and its associated accounting wizardry
PPP GDP of China is already signifcantly higher than the USA. China produces 23 trillion dollars vs America's 19 trillion. And that gap is widening.
The US (and western aligned) nations derive much of it's currency strength by being the center of the financial world. When the day comes when the US cannot longer secure its interest - or the financial system is undermined when hackers regularly sabatoge our financial systems and the world moves closer to the yuan - we are fucked. America will become much, much poorer.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34694672) |
Date: November 15th, 2017 4:25 PM Author: Alcoholic honey-headed space
We're fucked.
If the Jews had not completely destroyed the United States then we might have had a chance to compete with the chinks.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34694610) |
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Date: November 15th, 2017 4:49 PM Author: multi-colored roommate locus
it's a religion.
"hey, maybe importing the entire third-world into america isn't a great ide-"
"BIGOT! STUDIES SAY THAT IMMIGRANTS HAVE LOWER CRIME AND BOOST THE ECONOMY!!!"
"those 'studies' are global capitalist propaganda, and there is no such group as 'immigrants;' you need to break that down by specific population grou-"
"FUCK YOU, BIGOT! WE PUNCH NAZIS, NOT DEBATE THEM!!!"
that's pretty much their level of "discourse" on this issue.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34694796) |
Date: November 16th, 2017 3:06 AM Author: Ivory nursing home azn
Jesus, I know this bort has always been racist, but I like to think it hasn't always been this stupid. How the hell does China threaten the U.S.? Militarily, they have one aircraft carrier. And it's a Soviet-era piece of shit that barely floats. In a direct military conflict between the two nations, China would be absolutely obliterated. At the moment China isn't even trying to develop the capability to win a war with the U.S. Instead they are focusing almost exclusively on deterring the U.S. from meddling in what China sees as their sphere of influence (much less mainland China itself). Absolute worst-case scenario is that the Chinese military may get to the point where we couldn't protect Taiwan from invasion or counter China's claims in the South China Sea. Right now, however, if the U.S. were to invade North Korea and keep going, China wouldn't be able to stop us from driving straight to downtown Beijing unless they were willing to use nukes.
And economically China poses no credible threat, either. Almost all the truly innovative technology in the world originates in the U.S. Companies like Tesla and Apple set up shop in the U.S. because of stable institutions, protection of property rights, and far and away the best university system in the world. There is a reason that thousands of Chinese students come to study in American universities every year (and the vast majority of them try to remain in the U.S. after graduation). We are literally stealing all of China's best and brightest and somehow they are going to destroy our economy? Lol!
China's economy at the moment consists almost entirely of making cheap knockoffs of American innovations. That was a viable strategy when China was a 3rd World shithole where factory workers were willing to work for poverty-level wages. Now China has a growing middle class that isn't willing to work for peanuts any more. Chinese manufacturing growth has already slowed dramatically. Manufacturers are looking for cheaper labor in other parts of Asia (or returning to the U.S.). The model of making cheap knockoffs won't work for much longer.
And then there are Chinese demographic problems. The one child policy has left China with very few young workers and a shit of olds. Pretty soon pensions are going to be bankrupting the country. Meanwhile the U.S.'s liberal immigration laws mean that we have a far younger population than any other industrialized nation. Yes, Social Security will be a problem in the U.S., but our pension problems will be minor compared to anywhere in the industrialized world (much less China).
People also don't seem to remember that when the Chinese become wealthy, they suddenly want to buy iPhone's and Xboxes and Chevrolet's and things like that. A huge Chinese middle class will be an enormous boon to American exporters. I welcome the rise of China. It's potentially one of the best growth opportunities for American companies in the next several decades.
So no, there is very little to fear from China. China will almost certainly surpass the U.S. in terms of GDP within the next decade or two. (They have already passed the U.S. in terms of GDP at PPP.) But that's a meaningless dick measuring contest. GDP per capita won't approach Western levels within our lifetime, and China is unlikely to seriously challenge the West in terms of hard or soft power within that time, either. And it will be a huge new market for Western exporters. The fact that your wife is batshit crazy is a cause for concern. China is not.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34698528) |
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Date: November 16th, 2017 3:52 AM Author: multi-colored roommate locus
"Right now, however, if the U.S. were to invade North Korea and keep going, China wouldn't be able to stop us from driving straight to downtown Beijing"
this is the kind of illusory boomerific thinking that has fucked us over so much. multiple things would stop us:
-the expense. we're at 100% of debt/GDP. taking on more debt for a major war is only workable if we had strong national will,
-WHICH WE DON'T. the casualties from that sort of war would be substantial and would create massive domestic discord. china would engage in 4th-generation warfare within the US to amplify these problems using various tools - industrial/power sabotage, attacks by loyalists against US-based targets like officials/soldiers and their families, attacks on the financial system itself, etc.
-the combined effects of the price to wage the war and the price inflicted by the consequences of the war would create instability serious enough to potentially pull the country apart, and certainly to oust the political leadership in DC en masse if democracy is even functioning after that.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34698618)
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Date: November 16th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: copper bawdyhouse
Historically there has always been a tendency to overstate our external threats. From the Soviet Union’s supposed military and technology supremacy and OPEC’s control of the global oil market in the 1970’s to Japanese industry in the 1980’s and outsourcing to India in the last decade – there has always been overhyped external threats. China’s one-child policy will likely create a demographic disaster, they are overly reliant on infrastructure stimulus and have exploding debt, haven’t shown a true capability to innovate and suffer from rampant corruption. China very well could be a paper tiger. We don’t know yet. But, there are very concerning differences between China and some of these past threats.
Your references to Apple and Tesla are true, but this is probably what American businessmen said about Japan until everyone started wanting Toyotas and Sony electronics. Chinese technology is improving at a rapid pace. There are also technology considerations that have no historical precedent – like genetically engineering a smarter population and developing hyper-advanced AI and autonomous systems.
“Chinese companies are now competitive with industry leaders like Samsung and Apple. The Chinese market is hyper-competitive: small innovative startups (Oppo, OnePlus, etc.) compete with medium sized entities (e.g., Xiaomi, only recently a small startup itself) and giants like Huawei and Lenovo (Motorola).”
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/11/pocket-ai-from-beijing.html
“While China still lags the US badly in some areas, and its exported weapons have had reliability issues, signs abound that its military hardware is either catching up or becoming good enough to pose a real challenge in a potential conflict. A military modernization program pushed by Chinese president Xi Jinping is spurring things along.”
https://qz.com/975497/chinas-military-tech-is-becoming-less-of-a-joke-and-more-of-a-threat/
“Under an ambitious plan unveiled two years ago called Made in China 2025, Beijing has designs to dominate cutting-edge technologies like advanced microchips, artificial intelligence and electric cars, among many others, in a decade. And China is enlisting some of the world’s biggest technology players in its push.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/business/made-in-china-technology-trade.html
The fact that China is such a big market and they are being so strategic in trying to use every lever of power they can to dominate the world is a cause for concern. Maybe I am an idiot, but a lot of other people are seeing this too that are in a position to know. Our biggest advantages are our legal system/rule of law and ability to assimilate high-skilled workers. The best thing we could do as a country would be to actively recruit the smartest people in the world to live and work here and stop the third-world invasion that is currently happening. The influx of European scientists/engineers like Werner von Braun and John von Neuman in the post-war era was one of the best things to ever happen to us. We should be replicating that on a mass-scale because our native high-IQ population is barely reproducing while you have squat mayans pumping out 5 kids a piece.
“There is one challenge on the current scene that is substantially more difficult than those faced in the past, and that is China,” Lighthizer said. “The sheer scale of their coordinated effort to develop their economy, to subsidize, to create national champions, to force technology transfers, and to distort markets in China and throughout the world is a threat to the world trading system that is unprecedented.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/trump-s-top-trade-negotiator-calls-china-an-unprecedented-threat
"If I look out to 2025, and I look at the demographics and the economic situation, I think China probably poses the greatest threat to our nation by about 2025," he said. Dunford also told the committee that "China is focused on limiting our ability to project power and weakening our alliances in the Pacific."
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/26/politics/dunford-us-china-greatest-threat/index.html
“The One Belt, One Road initiative appears to be a combination of geopolitical, economic, and military strategy put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping to achieve multiple Chinese aims. Xi’s speech at the Belt and Road Forum offers clear historical analogies hearken back to a time when China saw itself as the “Middle Kingdom” – literally at the center of the world.”
https://www.americansecurityproject.org/chinas-one-belt-one-road-an-ambitious-strategy-challenging-the-u-s/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34700428)
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Date: November 16th, 2017 1:11 PM Author: copper bawdyhouse
They are literally going to be engineering a smarter, healthier population while we dither.
"The Chinese word for eugenics, yousheng, is used explicitly as a positive in almost all conversations about PGD."
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/08/embryo-selection-in-china-nature.html
They are really going to overtake us quickly and build the world's largest and best scientific/technological workforce and infrastructure. And whoever possesses this workforce/infrastructure will rule the world.
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/06/everything-under-sun-and-chinas.html
"These guys are not very quantitative, so let me clarify a part of their discussion that was left rather ambiguous. It is true that demographic trends are working against China, which has a rapidly aging population. French and Schell talk about a 10-15 year window during which China has to grow rich before it grows old (a well-traveled meme). From the standpoint of geopolitics this is probably not the correct or relevant analysis. China's population is ~4x that of the US. If, say, demographic trends limit this to only an effective 3x or 3.5x advantage in working age individuals, China still only has to reach ~1/3 of US per capita income in order to have a larger overall economy. It seems unlikely that there is any hard cutoff preventing China from reaching, say, 1/2 the US per capita GDP in a few decades. (Obviously a lot of this growth is still "catch-up" growth.) At that point its economy would be the largest in the world by far, and its scientific-technological workforce and infrastructure would be far larger than that of any other country."
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34701150)
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Date: November 16th, 2017 1:46 PM Author: salmon double fault
The worst thing that ever happened to America was the fact that literally every other first world country was blown to shit in WWII. It really made our egos go stratospheric and our entire national identity morph into "USA USA #1!". Even in the interwar period (really starting in the late 1800s), when America was very likely the most powerful country, our identity was more about our internal culture and values rather than roflstomping the rest of the world.
America isn't going to suddenly turn into a banana republic. So we turn into a UK that's 7x more powerful and China is 2x more powerful than us? Your kid isn't going to be starving, he's going to be living in an advanced first world country. If you really just want to be around more white people it's not like it's very hard for an American to immigrate anyway (you just won't make as much glocapbux).
America's biggest problem isn't China, or its own economic future (in the 70s people basically thought we were going down the tubes as well), it's our own fucking ego and how corrupted our values have become. Once we saw ourselves as the masters of the planet eventually everyone became obsessed perfecting their place in the American bubblesphere, because when your identity is the center of the universe you lose any other definition of what you are.
As I said, even in the ideal scenario plays out for China, we would still be the most powerful country that isn't ran by a (certainly extremely efficient) leadership cult. I think China's rise is actually America's best hope: we're really only at our best when we're either the kooky outsiders or there is a massive threat to our ideology. Even the 90s version of America, while great to live in, still had the spirit of a morally bankrupt Glocap Uber Alles state; surface-level patriotism was high just because the GlocapBuxxx were flowing. The question is if we even care enough about what used to be our reason for being and philosophy as a country for this to take hold and make people care, or has being the World POATUS since roughly the Nixon era (when the USSR really started to decline) just made us incorrigibly lazy and self-obsessed?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798324&forum_id=2#34701537) |
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