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Ted Cruz had exactly 0.00% chance against Hillary in the general election

if he had won the Republican primary. 0.0000%.
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
Demonstrably false
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
its true.
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
math doesn't work like that brother. hyperbole aside, my ...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
cruz had enormous unlikeability, the cucks would've been onl...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
sure, but he would've been running a against Hillary Clinton...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
the anti-hillary vote was going to vote no matter who the R ...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
yeah, he REALLY would have energized the Trump base
Outnumbered swashbuckling forum mother
  11/23/17
0% really? I understand this is a board of lawyers but come ...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/26/17
50% actually
Fragrant house karate
  11/22/17
the "either he wins or he loses" is inapplicable h...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
where did that weird faggot even come from? wtf? he's a Can...
citrine curious degenerate headpube
  11/22/17
he suffered from horrendous unlikeability. it would've been...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
his own daughter had ZERO respect for him. that was hilariou...
citrine curious degenerate headpube
  11/22/17
...
big cruise ship prole
  11/22/17
lol yeah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gplpSfaouP8
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
lmao what a fucking cuck
insane rehab ladyboy
  11/22/17
ok that's hilarious. what a little shit.
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
The kid, or Ted?
Hyperventilating Corner Rigor
  11/23/17
...
big cruise ship prole
  11/22/17
did you see Trump's favorability ratings leading up to the e...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
cruz would have been worse. people are palpably appalled by...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
grab them by the pussy was very, very bad though. a lot of p...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
net gain of "real men" votes, little breh
Autistic parlour
  11/22/17
the national enquirer article about cruz alleging multiple m...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
"alleged" affairs in the national enquire is nothi...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
Grabbing by pussy is somewhat within the realm of normal hum...
insane rehab ladyboy
  11/22/17
...
talking domesticated address mediation
  11/22/17
this is the one time Consuela makes perfect sense (pains me ...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
do you think minority voter turnout would've been higher if ...
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
no. Hillary did not inspire minority turnout at all. But m...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
you seem smart about this stuff
twisted aquamarine goyim
  11/22/17
ty
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
Cruz would not have done better among minorities. Trump duck...
ivory cumskin regret
  11/22/17
...
crawly bronze mad cow disease
  11/22/17
he's just really unlikeable.
aphrodisiac stage
  11/22/17
Also, to my last point. Both parties are essentially 50/50....
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
I agree with all the analysis you've posted here except for ...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
I generally agree with you that democrats have an edge in te...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
The problem is that minorities (including Hispanics) will al...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
To your first point. I am not sure hispanics are unwinnable...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
The best that a Republican has done with Hispanics, as far a...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
For 1) Yes, you are right, GWB was the best in recent memory...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
For #1, isn't toning down the white identity politics basica...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
I am not going to lie to you, I think the demographics is de...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/23/17
I appreciate the response, and I agree with you on almost ev...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/23/17
I enjoyed this dialogue, and possibly it will continue, but ...
seedy queen of the night
  11/22/17
I stand corrected, ty.
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/22/17
probably true. he's such an unlikable faggot.
mewling nursing home
  11/22/17
honestly, that's a huge factor too. I don't even understand...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
they think he's smart
mewling nursing home
  11/22/17
Probably right. I guess some combination of seeming smart +...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
TX is filled with some truly dumb shits. its still 180 thoug...
mewling nursing home
  11/22/17
I heard their property taxes were ridiculous, but isn't that...
shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting
  11/22/17
...
Dashing Codepig Love Of Her Life
  11/22/17
hello
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/23/17
Did Ted Cruz fuck your girl or something, you have a weird v...
adventurous native
  11/23/17
Some people on XO look to him as a true national Republican ...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/23/17
"some people" is literally just JJC
brilliant sweet tailpipe personal credit line
  11/23/17
...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/23/17
...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/24/17
This is obviously correct. He would not have flipped the rus...
rebellious ebony elastic band
  11/24/17
...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/25/17
Pretty dumb argument. Aside from the fact that this is a poi...
Orange bearded hospital incel
  11/24/17
(Guy who didn't read the rest of the thread)
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/26/17
...
translucent disrespectful sandwich
  11/27/17
...
Dashing Codepig Love Of Her Life
  05/30/19


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Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:19 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

if he had won the Republican primary. 0.0000%.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753212)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:20 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

Demonstrably false

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753214)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:20 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

its true.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753215)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:21 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

math doesn't work like that brother.

hyperbole aside, my grandmother's yorkshire terrier could've beaten HER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753220)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:22 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

cruz had enormous unlikeability, the cucks would've been only slightly warmer toward him than they were toward trump, cruz couldn't have won the midwest states that trump won, cruz is a shit closer, i could go on and on.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753226)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:25 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

sure, but he would've been running a against Hillary Clinton.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753237)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:01 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

the anti-hillary vote was going to vote no matter who the R was... that probably wouldn't have been enough to win in the dynamics of that election (and indeed it wasn't even enough to win the popular vote with Trump on the ballot). Trump won because he inspired just enough of a working class wave in the states that mattered.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753419)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:48 AM
Author: Outnumbered swashbuckling forum mother

yeah, he REALLY would have energized the Trump base

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754073)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 26th, 2017 11:05 AM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

0% really? I understand this is a board of lawyers but come on

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34774003)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:20 PM
Author: Fragrant house karate

50% actually

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753216)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:20 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

the "either he wins or he loses" is inapplicable here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753217)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:22 PM
Author: citrine curious degenerate headpube

where did that weird faggot even come from? wtf?

he's a Canadian fucking Mexican? and he wants to be president? what is this shit?

go away, faggot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753224)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:23 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

he suffered from horrendous unlikeability. it would've been a blowout.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:23 PM
Author: citrine curious degenerate headpube

his own daughter had ZERO respect for him. that was hilarious.

at least Trump keeps his kids in line.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753230)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:24 PM
Author: big cruise ship prole



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753233)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:24 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

lol yeah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gplpSfaouP8

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753236)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:26 PM
Author: insane rehab ladyboy

lmao what a fucking cuck

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753242)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:27 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

ok that's hilarious. what a little shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753247)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:48 AM
Author: Hyperventilating Corner Rigor

The kid, or Ted?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754068)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:32 PM
Author: big cruise ship prole



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753271)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:26 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

did you see Trump's favorability ratings leading up to the election?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:27 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

cruz would have been worse. people are palpably appalled by cruz's presence.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753246)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:29 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

grab them by the pussy was very, very bad though. a lot of people were appalled by that. it didn't matter because who he was running against

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753249)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:31 PM
Author: Autistic parlour

net gain of "real men" votes, little breh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753260)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:31 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

the national enquirer article about cruz alleging multiple mistresses was planted by trump, but i really wouldn't be surprised if cruz has had affairs, which the dems would definitely have sprung.

grab them by the pussy didn't matter though, and neither did any other damning event against trump (of which there were a dozen that would've killed anyone else's campaign) because trump won. trump is a winner, and cruz is a loser.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753262)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:36 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

"alleged" affairs in the national enquire is nothing compared to a recording bragging about sexual assault

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753295)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:47 PM
Author: insane rehab ladyboy

Grabbing by pussy is somewhat within the realm of normal human weirdness. Nothing Cruz has ever done has fallen within the realm of human. he's as aspie as Zuckercuck but slicker and mexican

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753351)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:39 PM
Author: talking domesticated address mediation



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753306)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:31 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

this is the one time Consuela makes perfect sense (pains me to say that).

No way Cruz would have won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

He would have done better in some traditional Republican areas but that would not have flipped any Clinton states back to him. In fact, he probably would have also lost North Carolina.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753263)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:34 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

do you think minority voter turnout would've been higher if Cruz ran?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753285)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:37 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

no. Hillary did not inspire minority turnout at all. But minority turnout was decent because Trump was racially polarizing. If Cruz ran it would have been a more typical D vs. R election. Hillary would have done better among whites and Cruz would have done a little bit better among minorities. I suspect a lot of Trump's increased margin among whites was young rural white disaffected people who almost never vote... like a reverse Obama affect.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753301)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:48 PM
Author: twisted aquamarine goyim

you seem smart about this stuff

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753352)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:56 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753390)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:50 PM
Author: ivory cumskin regret

Cruz would not have done better among minorities. Trump ducking killed among minorities

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753797)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:37 PM
Author: crawly bronze mad cow disease



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753300)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:38 PM
Author: aphrodisiac stage

he's just really unlikeable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753302)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:41 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

Also, to my last point. Both parties are essentially 50/50. So the better candidate is always the one who can bring out non-traditional voters to change that 50/50 dynamic.

Obama brought out a huge surge in African American turnout in 2008 and 2012. In a stable environment like 2012, this was enough to push him over the edge in states that are typically close where the black vote is a very large share of the total vote (e.g., PA, VA, MI, FL).

Trump brought out a huge surge in (young) working class white voters that don't typically come out in big numbers. 2016 was a fairly stable environment as well, and this was enough to push him over the edge in close or trending states that have a very big white working class vote (e.g., PA, NC, MI, WI, IA, OH).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753317)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:46 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

I agree with all the analysis you've posted here except for the 50/50 dynamic. Democrats have a demographic edge which is only growing over time and will be even better for the Democrats in 2020. Hillary, despite being a historically poor candidate, still won the popular vote by millions.

They won't forget to campaign in the Midwest states next time either.

What do you hate about my other poasts?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753345)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 10:56 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

I generally agree with you that democrats have an edge in terms of demographics. However, I was more referencing the electoral college, where I believe it is currently fairly even. The two parties know well enough to adjust their positions to stay in that 50/50 range. Over time Republicans will have to adjust (a lot) to stay competitive, but they haven't had to yet because they are still in that 50/50 range with respect to the electoral college vote. Now, popular votewise - yes, Democrats have a sizable edge and it will grow considerably. But getting hundreds of thousands of more votes in California and Texas didn't help them much in winning, as we saw in 2016.

Re your other poasts: your overly aggressive posting style and willingness to blanket attack various groups. I realize other people do it, but they are mostly just trash posters that pop in every now and then. Other board trumpmos aren't quite as demeaning of entire groups they disagree with... even libs...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753388)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:02 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

The problem is that minorities (including Hispanics) will always vote more for Democrats, the party of handouts, racial grievances and open borders -- so the more Republicans pander to Hispanics with open borders, the worse and worse they will do in the mid to long term as the country is flooded with more Democrats. "Adjusting" Republican positions is a dead end. Even Texas is becoming more blue...

You're right re: my strident style, it comes from frustration at my powerlessness at seeing the worsening direction of the country and my general ineffectiveness at convincing people. I'd be more effective with a more even-keeled style, though, so it's something I'm thinking about adjusting.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753424)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:10 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

To your first point. I am not sure hispanics are unwinnable for the GOP but you have to remember that a clan like mentality is literally coded into human DNA. Humans are naturally more trusting of people that look similar to them. There is a biological reason for this.. self preservation..

So basically, what is harming the GOP is not so much policy... a lot of upper middle class hispanics vote Democrat because GOP politicians (most notably Trump himself) make derogatory comments about hispanics in general. This brings up the clan mentality discussed above.

This was Trump's strategy all along. Look how he did in the primary. He won all of the states where there was the deepest racial polarization (deep south, mid-atlantic, some east coast states) while generally doing much worse in western states and states that were uniformly white and there was no racial polarization (Iowa caucus)... So basically Trump has pushed this demographic polarization into overdrive.

To your second point, the strident style (like Trump's) is not helping your own interests though. For instance, lets say you truly believe that your party will never ever win minorities. Then you will have to convince people who you perceive as sharing your interests to move to your side. But you spend a lot of time bashing white libs rather than trying to convince them of your position. This might just be your xo thing, which is fine. But I have noticed the general Republican strategy lately is to attack the very voters they will probably need to convince to vote for them in 10 years to stay relevant (when as you say, demographics will fuck the GOP) - typically urban and suburban white libs/moderates. If you guys don't start doing better with socially left of center whites, the GOP is probably permanently fucked.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753497)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:20 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

The best that a Republican has done with Hispanics, as far as I know, is GWB in 2004 with 44% of the vote, where he ran on a "compassionate conservatism" platform (basically fully embraced hispanics, promised more immigration, easy home purchases, ran hard on his "Texas rancher" background, etc). How do you see other Republicans doing better with Hispanics than he did?

Re: #2, you can see on XO a huge shift in white voter preference since 2008 and 2012 -- a lot (the majority?) of XO voted for Obama not once but twice. My "lib bashing" strategy is an attempt to decrease the left of center liberal's status further, thereby forcing a crisis of identity leading them to search for an alternative ideology -- the only one which exists being nationalism. Perhaps that's a failing strategy, though? It certainly feels like I'm swimming against the current.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753566)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:30 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

For 1) Yes, you are right, GWB was the best in recent memory. However, that is because these elections have become very racially polarizing lately. Before, hispanics were voting Democrat for fiscal reasons. Now they are voting Democrat because of identity politics. Take Cubans as an example of this. 20 years ago they were solidly Republican, particularly because they tend to be well-educated, anti-communist, upper-income. Now the vote is split or leans Democrat. This did not happen because of handouts. This happened because of social issues and identity politics. Part of the problem is the misconception that hispanics are naturally conservative. However, this never made sense to me as abortion has been legal in many latin american countries for decades and many latin american countries legalized gay marriage even before the U.S. did. Toning down the evangelical rhetoric and white identity politics would probably help win back a sizable share of hispanics. It's ok to be for closed borders, but probably not push it too far (e.g., deporting dreamers or other mean things).

For 2, I don't think that will be effective. Pushing people to the edge does not usually lead to an identity crisis but rather makes them double down in their thinking. There are actually studies on this. Even if you argue with people and push hard and show them convincing evidence that they are wrong, it most often pushes them even deeper into their way of thinking. I think a better strategy would be to actually listen to people's concerns who you think are convincible to push slightly in your direction. Part of the problem I see now is that Congressional Republicans have a -15 point approval rating and are focused on passing a tax bill as if that will save them, rather than focusing on why they have a -15 point approval rating. That is not all just anti-Trump stuff.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753635)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:39 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

For #1, isn't toning down the white identity politics basically the Jeb and Marco Rubio approach? At least based on the 2016 primaries, that approach significantly depressed the white working class vote and base enthusiasm for them. It didn't help Mitt Romney either. I agree with you that Hispanics are being driven into Democrat hands due to identity politics to an extent, but it goes back to how do you see Republicans doing better than GWB with them and getting more than 44% of their vote, especially while retaining the white working class vote?

For #2, you are probably right on how to convince people. The patient, inch by inch convincing approach just seems painfully slow when I see the demographic dangers right on our doorstep, but there is probably no other way. Why do you think Congressional Republicans have a -15 point approval rating?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753701)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:13 AM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

I am not going to lie to you, I think the demographics is destiny thing is true largely and I think it is highly likely (80%+ chance) that Democrats are the dominant party from say 2024-2044 with little hope for change in that timespan.

But for point 1. I do agree that Jeb or Marco would have lost to Hillary because of depressed white working class turnout. However, putting your chips all in the white working class basket, while working in 2016 because it tips MI, WI, PA, NC by a point or two, is not a good long term strategy. The Jeb/Marco approach would have essentially been better, i.e., the GWB strategy but tone down the cultural conservatism (i.e., less religious) and war-mongering. Essentially do what right of center political parties in Europe now do. The reason this is a better strategy is because the white working class vote shrinks about 2-3% every Presidential election cycle due to a) more minorities, obviously, and b) Millennials and post-Millenials entering the voter pool and being better educated. So even just among whites themselves, the working class vote is shrinking. That strategy would have made a dynamic whereby Democrats still largely win the cities and scattered poor rural counties, but Republicans overall win rural areas, exurbs, and hold their own in the suburbs. Instead, the way Trump pushed the party (it was already headed in that direction) is essentially into a dynamic where Democrats win the cities, Republicans win the rural areas, and basically the closer you get to a big city, the more likely you are to vote Democrat. Demographically speaking, this is suicide for the GOP because rural areas are stagnant and in many cases shrinking in population. Cities are increasing in population, and near-in suburbs are essentially where the bulk of the U.S. population already lives. Sure, Republicans will win rural areas by a larger margin, but they will lose the suburbs. Then they will essentially face the problem Democrats now, particularly in the house... where they win a minority of districts by enormous margins but lose everything else. This is already starting to happen if you look at the Virginia House of Delegate election a couple weeks ago. Republicans stayed competitive in the total vote because they won rural areas big time. But a ton of districts flipped to democrats because they won the suburbs by 10 points here and there. In short, banking on a declining white rural population is not a good strategy even if it pays small dividends in the electoral college. It's only a matter of time until states with booming city and minority populations flip to the other side - TX, AZ, GA, NC - being by far the most likely.

for 2 - the slow game is the only approach, it's essentially what libs have done for progressive causes like gay marriage and it's worked well. I think Congressional Republicans have a low approval rating because a) Trump is unpopular, but also b) because they appear to be completely out of touch. The fact that even the reasonable ones like John McCain are really old white guys doesn't help. The fact that they are trying to publicly investigate Hillary (who's not even a public official anymore) makes them also look out of touch. They appear too culturally conservative as well. Basically the problem I see is that everyone knows that most people don't want Republicans controlling Congress right now and they are kind of stuck with them. This was partially inevitable based on the laws of politics after Trump's election. But the better strategy would have been for them to be like, ok, how can we work with the other side - or at least appear to be doing so. Instead they've brazenly been like "fuck you, we are in power" - that's fine but they won't be in power long because it reminds people why they didn't want them in power and why they naturally want a check on Trump/a republican presidency.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753901)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:35 AM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

I appreciate the response, and I agree with you on almost everything you said in the first and second paragraphs. Most of the Trump supporters here really don't appreciate how dire the Republican demographic predicament is -- it's glossed over by them regularly. But do you really think the European right of center parties are the right approach, given the massive influx of Muslims there, the clampdown on freedom of speech, and the continued leftward progression in those countries? They only seem to slow the leftward momentum, not stop or reverse it. It seems like the countries having the best success at countering leftism in Europe are the explicitly nationalist countries -- Orban in Hungary (he's running an incredible anti-Soros campaign now), Poland, and the Czech Republic...which would mean a strategy in the U.S. of increased nationalism (and more radical policy prescriptions), not less.

Re: the third paragraph, do you think that the Democrats obstructing Republicans across the board has had a negative effect on them? Democrats have refused to cross the aisle to work with Republicans on anything of note so far. I agree with you on the inevitable laws of politics -- the party opposite the president usually wins the midterms. From what I see, people are angry at Congress for the gridlock, inability to get anything accomplished, and the corruption and pork more than anything else, which applies to both parties...

Lastly, do you think the left and the right have the same strategies to attain power? It seems to me that the left agitates to move society further leftward slowly over time, and the right -- if it's attaining real power -- seizes it all at once. Like El Sisi seizing power in Egypt, or Franco in Spain...can you think of any examples of the right attaining real power slowly over time?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754014)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:46 PM
Author: seedy queen of the night

I enjoyed this dialogue, and possibly it will continue, but had to say that I did not vote for Obama twice. That's fake news.

I voted for him in 2008, but realized he was full of shit by 2012. Hated Romney so I voted third party.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753765)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:48 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

I stand corrected, ty.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753778)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:00 PM
Author: mewling nursing home

probably true. he's such an unlikable faggot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753409)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:11 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

honestly, that's a huge factor too. I don't even understand how he won in Texas to begin with. He doesn't fit the voter base at all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753502)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:11 PM
Author: mewling nursing home

they think he's smart

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753506)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:15 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

Probably right. I guess some combination of seeming smart + credentials + sharing your positions (even if it's fake) is good enough for most voters.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753520)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:22 PM
Author: mewling nursing home

TX is filled with some truly dumb shits. its still 180 though. except for skyhigh property taxes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753585)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:30 PM
Author: shivering spectacular internal respiration famous landscape painting

I heard their property taxes were ridiculous, but isn't that just a product of having no income tax? seems like a good place to do BIGLAW and just buy a very cheap little bungalow... stash away the cash...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753644)



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Date: November 22nd, 2017 11:33 PM
Author: Dashing Codepig Love Of Her Life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34753652)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:37 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

hello

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34756149)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:44 AM
Author: adventurous native

Did Ted Cruz fuck your girl or something, you have a weird vendetta against him

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754044)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:46 AM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

Some people on XO look to him as a true national Republican contender, a principled evangelical, and he's not one.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754053)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 12:47 AM
Author: brilliant sweet tailpipe personal credit line

"some people" is literally just JJC

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34754063)



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Date: November 23rd, 2017 10:44 AM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34755491)



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Date: November 24th, 2017 8:25 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34764640)



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Date: November 24th, 2017 8:29 PM
Author: rebellious ebony elastic band

This is obviously correct. He would not have flipped the rust belt states.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34764658)



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Date: November 25th, 2017 6:59 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34770533)



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Date: November 24th, 2017 8:38 PM
Author: Orange bearded hospital incel

Pretty dumb argument. Aside from the fact that this is a pointless hypothetical to talk about, Hillary lost the election because her numbers compared to Obama collapsed, not because Trump converted a bunch of new voters. For instance, Trump got fewer votes in WI than Romney did and fewer votes in OH and MI than Bush 04.

Hillary was uniquely unlikable and uninspiring. The 2016 fundamentals favored the Democrats slightly; no doubt that Biden for instance would have crushed Trump and beaten most Republicans. Against Hillary, most Republicans would have won.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34764701)



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Date: November 26th, 2017 10:48 AM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich

(Guy who didn't read the rest of the thread)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34773962)



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Date: November 27th, 2017 7:39 PM
Author: translucent disrespectful sandwich



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#34784766)



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Date: May 30th, 2019 9:57 PM
Author: Dashing Codepig Love Of Her Life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3806428&forum_id=2#38316698)