and also see that article I poasted below. savers will get fucked again if there's a bank run

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35303984)

This time, I remember a lot of dudes doing the debt shit like CDO's and securitizations and what not - they all shifted their schemes to equity markets in low rate periods.

So you had dudes issuing equity or preferreds or units that are really bad investments and then they're getting rich off of it.

Bag holders this time are people who are in indexes or ETFs I think - also the coastal areas and the coastal banks. Pension funds as well.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35304013)

Could even be a paper recession / coastal recession

If you really think about it - a lot of the heartland is being helped by legislation and deregulation.

A lot of the coastal areas are getting hurt from tax policies.

For example in California I spoke to a boomer friend of mine saying that if he needs to ReFi his house to get more money out of it now (A TON of boomers do this), because of the rate increase its gonna cost him another $1,200 a month - which is a pretty big hit versus two years ago.

This kind of stuff is where you see rate increases creep in - suddenly cash flow on property becomes more important. For most areas in the center of the US this has always been the case.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35304077)

why not just get a HELOC? those are still pretty low rates

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35304230)

This other dude I know who is DEEP into the mortgage/MBS game especially non-conforming stuff said that in the West coast it is all about monthly payments when it comes to housing prices.

Very interesting to see what will happen in a few years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35304239)

If I lose my money in those banks then NK will have nuked us or something and we'll have bigger problems.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35303852)

But see: http://www.signatureassociations.com/blog/2017/8/11/fdic-solvency-and-association-reserves-are-your-communitys-funds-at-risk-1

tl;dr:

1) FDIC has enough cash to cover 1.18% of all insurable deposits nationwide

2) if banks go bust and get bailed out, current regulations after the last bail-out have a "bail-in" mechanism whereby the bank cannibalizes your FDIC-insured cash and your status is converted to that of an unsecured creditor, which renders the FDIC insurance worthless

3) the largest banks in the world are filled to the brim with off-balance sheet exotic products again, and those products have statutory superpriority in a reorganization. you, dear former saver and current unsecured creditor, are the LOWEST priority.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35303946)

We will probably hang out here till midterms and then there could be some insane shit going on

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35328972)

This is nothing like that. Nasdaq went from 1900 in 1997 and more than tripled in 3 years. Today, it's about 40% higher than 3 years ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35666594)

how far do you think we will crash

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869423&forum_id=2#35708621)