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NXPI: risk-free oafish 3% spread

...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/07/18
Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal
obsidian jewess
  03/07/18
LJL why is Mofcom blocking this deal. You think they're goin...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/07/18
Maybe for CFIUS blocking every deal with the Chinese I'm ...
obsidian jewess
  03/07/18
Yes because arbs are paranoid queers who are already choked ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/07/18
2014 Blocked Seagate/Samsung in 2011 Western Digital / Hit...
obsidian jewess
  03/07/18
There is a 0% chance QCOM steps away even if they lose the p...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/07/18
...
obsidian jewess
  07/25/18
Just lol at faggot arbs continuing to puke this thing. This ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/09/18
...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/20/18
Approaching 6% now lmao Even if China plays hardball I do...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/22/18
LJL holy shit this is such a massive buy
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  03/28/18
time to buy is rn if you are going to imho
pale party of the first part
  03/28/18
This is probably the best stock you could possibly buy right...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/04/18
...
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/04/18
Explain how it's "much more likely" to close Ne...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/04/18
...
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
Okay now let's compate Marvell and Qualcomm. Qualcomm lit...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
What’s your point
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
That Qualcomm will ultimately accede to Mofcom's ask (whatev...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
...
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
"shareholders on both sides are lukewarm about the comb...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
Please do
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
The biggest NXPI shareholders such as Elliott have signed ir...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
...
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
When you say "most" you're talking about Elliott a...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
We’ll see. Good luck man I agree it’s a good buy at $115
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/11/18
We'll see what unfolds
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
LJL this is fucking absurd. Arbs are full so no one can buy ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/04/18
Friendly reminder that this spread is fucking enormous and C...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
I'm going to continue pounding the table on this btw
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
Much like the POUNDING my asshold has received from when I m...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
Update: $11.50 or almost a 10% gross spread. Arb faggots are...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
brother unless you have inside info here you are literally j...
Gay stirring jap plaza
  04/11/18
I 100% have no inside info, but in a sense all stock market ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
im just questioning your 90% certainty man, there's a big di...
Gay stirring jap plaza
  04/11/18
That was a hypothetical example. IDK what the exact %s are b...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
godspeed brother i'm rooting for you
Gay stirring jap plaza
  04/11/18
ty friend
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/11/18
Daily reminder this is a massive fucking buy
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/12/18
Buying stock below $114 is a gift btw
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/12/18
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-delays-deal-reviews-as-u-...
obsidian jewess
  04/13/18
This headline reads much worse than the reality; if you saw ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/13/18
I don't want to be an asshole but on March 7 when you initia...
obsidian jewess
  04/16/18
Oh absolutely, I got anally ravaged from my initial OP. That...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/17/18
Most merger arb shops run incredibly levered Picking up p...
obsidian jewess
  04/17/18
10x is high, and would only be done for something with a fir...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/17/18
i can tell you'll blow yourself up (or have already done so)...
White very tactful personal credit line
  04/17/18
Do please explain to me all the new information that doesn't...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/17/18
it seems like the only new information is that people are fl...
Gay stirring jap plaza
  04/17/18
Right, which is another of way of spouting efficient market ...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/17/18
...
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/19/18
?
trip talking senate boltzmann
  04/19/18
I don't understand why you bumped this so much and then took...
obsidian jewess
  04/19/18
This is down again today. Is this a major buy tomorrow?
Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House
  04/19/18
Any thoughts? Thinking about putting a substantial amoun...
Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House
  04/19/18
Bought a position just now around 105.70. If buyout goes...
Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House
  04/20/18
15x P/E on $7 of EPS seems like a reasonable value. Will ge...
obsidian jewess
  04/20/18
When your doing arbs - the liquidations and the take private...
Federal cobalt chapel
  04/20/18
And is it, in this case?
Multi-colored round eye indian lodge
  04/20/18
This is extremely painful, believe me. But if you have an...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/20/18
Nobody is working there anymore. They've all left or are on...
obsidian jewess
  05/03/18
OAFISH 25%
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/24/18
It's enormous. I'd recommend owning this.
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/24/18
I am not allowed to otherwise I would
diverse soggy depressive azn
  04/24/18
...
Glittery nighttime pocket flask space
  04/24/18
There is still effectively no reason for China to block this...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/24/18
Finally going up today jfc There is still a fucking absur...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  04/26/18
bump for 8.5% "risk-free" drop today
dun abusive half-breed trailer park
  05/03/18
lol dumbass
White very tactful personal credit line
  05/03/18
$91
vigorous tank
  05/03/18
38% spread and no buyers except OP
diverse soggy depressive azn
  05/03/18
A good buy now? It probably is at some point right?
Multi-colored round eye indian lodge
  05/03/18
Yes
diverse soggy depressive azn
  05/03/18
Lots of HFers are going to lose their jobs over this
diverse soggy depressive azn
  05/03/18
Guys at Elliott having a no bueno time
obsidian jewess
  05/03/18
Looking better today faggots!
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/14/18
ATTN: FAGGOTS Mofcom just approved their second deal this...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/17/18
Beijing official says NXPI/QCOM looking more optimistic. Wav...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/18/18
Seriously u gotta buy this thing if u haven't yet. Big sprea...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/18/18
fgts
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/18/18
...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/18/18
Okay you faggots I hope some of you were buying this because...
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/22/18
still an ok spread though
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/22/18
JFC you fags didn't buy a single share did you
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  05/25/18
I can see it in your eyes, you don't have a single share
fear-inspiring state
  06/14/18
Suck my dick faggots!!!!
free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead
  06/14/18
So it only took you six months and you made a sweet 3%? Cool
slate dashing philosopher-king double fault
  07/10/18
edit: oops looked at wrong year OP made an ok swing on t...
Gay stirring jap plaza
  07/10/18
Do you even MOFCOM?
aqua hideous school cafeteria
  07/10/18
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/qualcomm-is-preparing-to-giv...
mint international law enforcement agency
  07/25/18
lol
Gay stirring jap plaza
  07/25/18
Op owned?
disrespectful indirect expression
  07/25/18
Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM Author: DrakeMallard (Daring ...
obsidian jewess
  07/25/18
lol op is pwned
White very tactful personal credit line
  07/25/18
March 7 stock was at $124. Closed today at $92.81 That's ...
obsidian jewess
  07/26/18
lol so u were short NKE at $80 and its at $85 and ur long NX...
Spectacular sanctuary
  09/28/18
OP we need an update. There is free money at stake.
aqua hideous school cafeteria
  08/29/18
Guys should I buy at $85?
Cerise pit
  09/28/18
...
Cerise pit
  09/28/18
...
Aromatic flatulent parlor old irish cottage
  10/09/18
??
White very tactful personal credit line
  12/08/18
Only down like 35% YTD - better or worse investment than cry...
impressive goyim scourge upon the earth
  12/08/18
worse. im up like 10x from the start of the year in crypto. ...
White very tactful personal credit line
  12/08/18
...
Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan
  03/23/20
...
Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan
  04/21/20
...
Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan
  12/13/21
Looking at almost a double here. N2B
Federal cobalt chapel
  12/13/21


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 2:56 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35554784)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555491)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:36 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

LJL why is Mofcom blocking this deal. You think they're going to use this as a lever to retaliate over tariffs?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555571)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:38 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

Maybe for CFIUS blocking every deal with the Chinese

I'm saying there is a spread for a reason

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555588)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:39 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Yes because arbs are paranoid queers who are already choked to the gills on NXPI. People always freak out over mofcom because it's a black box, but when is the last time they blocked a deal?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555600)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 5:00 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

2014

Blocked Seagate/Samsung in 2011

Western Digital / Hitachi in 2012

Blocked a shipping co merger in 2014

You could make the same argument for CFIUS - its doing unprecedented shit with Broadcom / Qualcomm

The other reason there is a spread is if Broadcom wins the proxy fight for QCOM then steps away from NXPI bid

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555776)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 5:16 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

There is a 0% chance QCOM steps away even if they lose the proxy fight. Check the docs, they're locked in here, and this is the classic arb queer paranoia I'm talking about.

In theory mofcom could block, but after like 12 other regulatory agencies approved it, the chances are pretty remote.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555891)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:25 PM
Author: obsidian jewess



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495255)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2018 11:10 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Just lol at faggot arbs continuing to puke this thing. This is actual free money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35568910)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 10:09 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35644202)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 22nd, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Approaching 6% now lmao

Even if China plays hardball I don't see them fighting a trade war via mofcom. Arbs are literal faggots always and forever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35660984)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2018 12:14 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

LJL holy shit this is such a massive buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35709018)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2018 12:18 PM
Author: pale party of the first part

time to buy is rn if you are going to imho

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35709052)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

This is probably the best stock you could possibly buy right now

If deal goes through (it almost certainly will): you make 10% in <1 month

If deal gets blocked by China (it almost certainly won't): stock trades down initially and then rips higher when the big boys snap it up from the faggot arbs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760885)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:08 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760924)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:10 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Explain how it's "much more likely" to close

Needs CFIUS and Mofcom vs. just Mofcom

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760936)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:50 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815338)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:52 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Okay now let's compate Marvell and Qualcomm.

Qualcomm literally does 2/3rds of its revs in China and is considered a model corporate citizen there. Sure their management team is full of dumb stubborn faggots but ultimately they will do whatever China asks to get this deal done. Because they have to.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815353)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:55 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

What’s your point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815393)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

That Qualcomm will ultimately accede to Mofcom's ask (whatever it ends up being) because

1) Qualcomm does so much business in China and has to remain in their good graces

2) Qualcomm is a dead dog without NXPI and they know it (despite being dumb stupid stubborn faggots)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815422)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:16 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815553)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:20 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

"shareholders on both sides are lukewarm about the combo" this is 100% wrong, and I can elaborate if need be

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815575)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:21 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

Please do

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815584)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:26 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

The biggest NXPI shareholders such as Elliott have signed irrevocable tenders for their shares - they are 100% locked into the $127.50 deal price (though if the deal breaks they won't be too upset since they think the stock is worth more on a standalone basis). NXPI holders want this done so they can take their money and move on - at this point the shareholder base is mostly arbs who are choking on it.

Qualcomm shareholders are fed up with management because they have no grand strategy moving forward. The NXPI acquisition is massively accretive and immediately so. Without NXPI, Qualcomm is only mobile phones and lawsuits - their "backup plan" is a stock buyback. Shareholders want this deal done so they can actually have a viable business going forward.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815616)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:56 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815888)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:59 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

When you say "most" you're talking about Elliott and other big funds who ran a very public campaign that NXPI was worth more than the $110/share Qualcomm was offering. Then Qualcomm bumped it up to $127.50 and those big funds signed an irrevocable tender, meaning they are locked into the deal. On the NXPI side, the deal is done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815909)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:17 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

We’ll see. Good luck man I agree it’s a good buy at $115

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35816030)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:19 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

We'll see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35816049)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 3:31 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

LJL this is fucking absurd. Arbs are full so no one can buy it. Take advantage!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35763326)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Friendly reminder that this spread is fucking enormous and China will approve the deal because they're not retards.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35814628)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:16 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

I'm going to continue pounding the table on this btw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815040)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:32 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Much like the POUNDING my asshold has received from when I made this OP

Still a great trade though!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815156)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:40 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Update: $11.50 or almost a 10% gross spread. Arb faggots are "freaking out" over "China" "approval."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815250)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:23 AM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

brother unless you have inside info here you are literally just gambling. and that's fine, 50/50 you could be right, i love to gamble myself, but why are you settling for 10% return on gambling? if you are going to gamble go big and shoot for 10x returns, not fucking 9%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815593)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:27 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

I 100% have no inside info, but in a sense all stock market investing is "gambling."

Put it this way: if the market is pricing in a 10% chance of a deal getting done, and you think there's a 90% chance of the deal getting done, is that a gamble you'd want to take?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815628)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

im just questioning your 90% certainty man, there's a big diference between there being an actual 90% chance of deal getting done and you thinking it/betting that a china regulatory agency you have no insight into will not quash it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815654)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:36 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

That was a hypothetical example. IDK what the exact %s are but it's actually not too much different from what I stated.

But you can look at history, other worldwide approvals, and just plain logic to see that there is an overwhelming probability China approves this. Not only that, even if the deal did break, it's very likely the stock would trade higher from here after an initial shakeout. The only reason it's as low as it is is that arbs took way too much risk in this name and are feeling the pain. It's a market structure issue.

Another way of putting this is the efficient market theory is horseshit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815694)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:57 AM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

godspeed brother i'm rooting for you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815894)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:00 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

ty friend

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815913)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 12th, 2018 9:57 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Daily reminder this is a massive fucking buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35823065)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 12th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Buying stock below $114 is a gift btw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35824674)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 13th, 2018 11:37 AM
Author: obsidian jewess

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-delays-deal-reviews-as-u-s-trade-frictions-build-1523628379

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35832556)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 13th, 2018 12:10 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

This headline reads much worse than the reality; if you saw Faber on CNBC this morning and/or saw recent stories on M&A blogs, this is a timing issue rather than a regulatory issue.

The deal's still getting done and the stock is still a screaming buy here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35832801)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 16th, 2018 11:56 AM
Author: obsidian jewess

I don't want to be an asshole but on March 7 when you initially wrote your OP, the stock was trading at $124, for a risk free oafish spread of 3%

It is now sub 113, for an 11% spread. You've lost 8% in a risk free trade that would have gotten you 3% in gains

Now obviously the calculus for new money is different at $113. You're looking at a risk free oafish spread of 11%. That seems interesting as the downside from here seems limited for NXPI on a standalone basis as at $113 it trades at sub 14x P/E

I'm not a merger arb guy but my friends in the space tell me it is all about entry combined with risk/reward. A 3% reward wasn't sufficient, even with signficant leverage boosting returns

Imagine being 10:1 levered trying to squeeze out a 30% return on that 3% spread. The move down would have blown you up. At 10:1 leverage on that 11% spread would get you a 110% return - that sounds a lot sexier

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35851000)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 11:44 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Oh absolutely, I got anally ravaged from my initial OP. That said, the risk/reward has only gotten more attractive here, and anyone with free capital should be buying. Also, if you're levering up these trades 10:1, you pretty much deserve whatever you get.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35858900)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

Most merger arb shops run incredibly levered

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller IMO but I guess its a living

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859433)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 12:58 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

10x is high, and would only be done for something with a firm closing date on it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859557)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 12:45 PM
Author: White very tactful personal credit line

i can tell you'll blow yourself up (or have already done so) because you're really bad at adjusting your views based on new information

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859450)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 12:57 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Do please explain to me all the new information that doesn't make this a huge buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859542)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 1:00 PM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

it seems like the only new information is that people are fleeing the deal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859568)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 1:02 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Right, which is another of way of spouting efficient market theory horseshit. When the thesis hasn't changed yet the risk/reward has improved markedly is exactly when you should be loading up

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859585)



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Date: April 19th, 2018 9:00 AM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35872985)



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Date: April 19th, 2018 1:04 PM
Author: trip talking senate boltzmann

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35874724)



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Date: April 19th, 2018 7:14 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

I don't understand why you bumped this so much and then took none of the advice or other viewpoints offered

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35877256)



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Date: April 19th, 2018 7:24 PM
Author: Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House

This is down again today. Is this a major buy tomorrow?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35877304)



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Date: April 19th, 2018 10:34 PM
Author: Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House

Any thoughts?

Thinking about putting a substantial amount down on this tomorrow morning. Putting aside the buyout (which would be a quick ~20% gain), I like this stock. So even if it fell through, it’s not the end of the world.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35878356)



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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:01 AM
Author: Floppy Snowy Windowlicker House

Bought a position just now around 105.70.

If buyout goes through looks like it will be about 20% gain by July.

If not, I like th stock anyways. And they will be owed 2b I believe.

Seems like a calculated, sensible risk here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881173)



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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:28 AM
Author: obsidian jewess

15x P/E on $7 of EPS seems like a reasonable value. Will get you a $105 stock on the fundamentals

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881367)



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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:30 AM
Author: Federal cobalt chapel

When your doing arbs - the liquidations and the take privates are the lowest risk - reg agency stuff like MOFCOM or local Utility Comissions or Antitrust can get crazy -

UNLESS OF COURSE the company as a stand alone is a high quality asset worth owning

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881378)



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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:57 AM
Author: Multi-colored round eye indian lodge

And is it, in this case?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881566)



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Date: April 20th, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

This is extremely painful, believe me.

But if you have any kind of balance sheet here, this is a great spot to buy the stock. Because it is, in fact, a great stand-alone asset.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881585)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:55 AM
Author: obsidian jewess

Nobody is working there anymore. They've all left or are on vacation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972537)



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Date: April 24th, 2018 3:00 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

OAFISH 25%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910098)



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Date: April 24th, 2018 3:34 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

It's enormous. I'd recommend owning this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910448)



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Date: April 24th, 2018 3:39 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

I am not allowed to otherwise I would

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910496)



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Date: April 24th, 2018 3:36 PM
Author: Glittery nighttime pocket flask space



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910462)



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Date: April 24th, 2018 3:37 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

There is still effectively no reason for China to block this deal. Arbs got way too big in this and have puked it all over their shoes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910478)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 10:38 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Finally going up today jfc

There is still a fucking absurd spread in this that is totally unjustified by the fundamentals

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35923849)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: dun abusive half-breed trailer park

bump for 8.5% "risk-free" drop today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972408)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: White very tactful personal credit line

lol dumbass

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972418)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 10:51 AM
Author: vigorous tank

$91

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972927)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 12:04 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

38% spread and no buyers except OP

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35973443)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 12:46 PM
Author: Multi-colored round eye indian lodge

A good buy now? It probably is at some point right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35973749)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 2:11 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

Yes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974354)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 3:25 PM
Author: diverse soggy depressive azn

Lots of HFers are going to lose their jobs over this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974932)



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Date: May 3rd, 2018 3:27 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

Guys at Elliott having a no bueno time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974950)



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Date: May 14th, 2018 12:39 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Looking better today faggots!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36047475)



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Date: May 17th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

ATTN: FAGGOTS

Mofcom just approved their second deal this week. They're speeding things along again. There's still a lot of money left in this oafish spread!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36067746)



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Date: May 18th, 2018 10:49 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Beijing official says NXPI/QCOM looking more optimistic. Wave this cocksucker in! Buy Buy Buy!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076563)



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Date: May 18th, 2018 10:53 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Seriously u gotta buy this thing if u haven't yet. Big spread!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076604)



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Date: May 18th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

fgts

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076678)



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Date: May 18th, 2018 11:22 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076828)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 8:04 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Okay you faggots I hope some of you were buying this because I was trying to make you money on that absurd move lower

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36103033)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:32 AM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

still an ok spread though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36103743)



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Date: May 25th, 2018 1:30 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

JFC you fags didn't buy a single share did you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36126517)



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Date: June 14th, 2018 7:02 PM
Author: fear-inspiring state

I can see it in your eyes, you don't have a single share

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36247353)



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Date: June 14th, 2018 7:01 PM
Author: free-loading fiercely-loyal circlehead

Suck my dick faggots!!!!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36247345)



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Date: July 10th, 2018 11:50 PM
Author: slate dashing philosopher-king double fault

So it only took you six months and you made a sweet 3%? Cool

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402680)



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Date: July 10th, 2018 11:53 PM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

edit: oops looked at wrong year

OP made an ok swing on top of a pretty big risk, meh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402699)



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Date: July 10th, 2018 11:31 PM
Author: aqua hideous school cafeteria

Do you even MOFCOM?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402537)



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Date: July 25th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: mint international law enforcement agency

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/qualcomm-is-preparing-to-give-up-on-nxp.html

Qualcomm will terminate deal to buy NXP at end of day

Qualcomm is planning to move forward with share buybacks instead of buying NXP.

Qualcomm isn't counting on Chinese regulators to rule in favor of its NXP deal.

Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf will address his company's share buyback plans during today's conference call.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495185)



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Date: July 25th, 2018 4:16 PM
Author: Gay stirring jap plaza

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495196)



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Date: July 25th, 2018 4:16 PM
Author: disrespectful indirect expression

Op owned?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495198)



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Date: July 25th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM

Author: DrakeMallard (Daring Duck of Mystery, Champion of Right)

Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495200)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 5:41 PM
Author: White very tactful personal credit line

lol op is pwned

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495757)



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Date: July 26th, 2018 4:23 PM
Author: obsidian jewess

March 7 stock was at $124. Closed today at $92.81

That's a 25% loss in 4.5 months. Friends don't let friends do merger arbitrage

For what it's worth, I just nibbled on it at $92.50

I think they do $8 of EPS in 2019. 15x that is a $120 stock.

Downside they'll do $7 and get 12x so $84

30% upside / 10% downside for a 3:1 risk/reward

Clear catalysts upcoming: $5B in buybacks funded in part by the QCOM breakup fee + an analyst day. Activist investors could also come in given management has been on the beach for the past 2 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36502603)



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Date: September 28th, 2018 12:38 PM
Author: Spectacular sanctuary

lol so u were short NKE at $80 and its at $85 and ur long NXPI at $92.81 and it's at $85.

what else you got? i want more -8% ideas.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914106)



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Date: August 29th, 2018 2:27 PM
Author: aqua hideous school cafeteria

OP we need an update. There is free money at stake.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36709580)



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Date: September 28th, 2018 12:37 PM
Author: Cerise pit

Guys should I buy at $85?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914096)



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Date: September 28th, 2018 1:39 PM
Author: Cerise pit



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914656)



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Date: October 9th, 2018 8:15 PM
Author: Aromatic flatulent parlor old irish cottage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36993812)



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Date: December 8th, 2018 1:09 PM
Author: White very tactful personal credit line

??

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372446)



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Date: December 8th, 2018 1:15 PM
Author: impressive goyim scourge upon the earth

Only down like 35% YTD - better or worse investment than crypto?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372467)



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Date: December 8th, 2018 1:27 PM
Author: White very tactful personal credit line

worse. im up like 10x from the start of the year in crypto.

edit: actually more like 4x

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372526)



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Date: March 23rd, 2020 4:02 PM
Author: Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#39844253)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 21st, 2020 1:13 PM
Author: Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#40062347)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 13th, 2021 12:51 PM
Author: Ultramarine Bespoke Coldplay Fan



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#43601692)



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Date: December 13th, 2021 1:01 PM
Author: Federal cobalt chapel

Looking at almost a double here. N2B

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#43601778)