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AEI Analysis: Index Funds Beat 95% Of Active Money Managers Over 15 Year Period

http://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-that-its-very-h...
gay bonkers home
  03/20/18
why won't you serve in the IDF
awkward wonderful base mother
  03/20/18
...
Lascivious scarlet location international law enforcement agency
  03/20/18
In the next 15 years that 5% will be part of the 95% of lose...
Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone
  03/20/18
...
gay bonkers home
  03/20/18
Active managers can get you outsized return years That ye...
Olive painfully honest nowag
  03/20/18
You're flailing here.
chestnut national idiot
  03/20/18
I agree active management is generally a scam, I'm just stat...
Olive painfully honest nowag
  03/20/18
sounds like a lottery ticket for rich people* *someone el...
Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone
  03/20/18
lol have you really bought into this garbage or are you tryi...
vigorous puce forum associate
  03/20/18
this was me
Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone
  04/26/22
Just do rentech medallion
Provocative orange center mental disorder
  03/20/18
FCNTX and POAGRX have beat the S&P since 2009.
Smoky well-lubricated elastic band
  03/20/18
LJL at starting in 2009
Sable diverse mad cow disease roast beef
  03/20/18
That actually makes it more impressive. And they both lost l...
Smoky well-lubricated elastic band
  03/20/18
had my biggest client in POAGX w 20% of his portfolio since ...
Contagious gaming laptop
  03/20/18
Should I buy Splunk and AAL? all the primecap funds seem to ...
Smoky well-lubricated elastic band
  03/20/18
no idea. not an expert in security selection. you should ...
Contagious gaming laptop
  03/20/18
Ty. What do you think of a portfolio split 50/50 POGRX and a...
Smoky well-lubricated elastic band
  03/20/18
it's probably underdiversified. i'm also not as bullish on p...
Contagious gaming laptop
  03/20/18
this is a comparison of the market versus MUTUAL funds. ...
Pink talking stag film
  03/20/18
mutual funds can and often do put more than 2% into a single...
Contagious gaming laptop
  03/20/18
What percentage of the advantage for index funds is that ove...
seedy pearly theatre personal credit line
  03/20/18
very little. active funds as a whole mirror the market but a...
Contagious gaming laptop
  03/20/18
*Refunktp smirking at the bottom 95% of money managers*
mauve talented heaven tank
  03/20/18
...
Rose wrinkle theater stage
  04/26/22
Do non-US equity funds have a better record?
Slap-happy Lavender Chad Old Irish Cottage
  04/26/22


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 2:52 PM
Author: gay bonkers home

http://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-that-its-very-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-financial-professionals-cant-do-it/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646085)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:19 PM
Author: awkward wonderful base mother

why won't you serve in the IDF

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646284)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 2:54 PM
Author: Lascivious scarlet location international law enforcement agency



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646104)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:11 PM
Author: Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone

In the next 15 years that 5% will be part of the 95% of losers and new "winners" will emerge as the new 5%. So poo poo to that idea.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646204)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:15 PM
Author: gay bonkers home



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646246)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:25 PM
Author: Olive painfully honest nowag

Active managers can get you outsized return years

That year Paulson made $15B for investors on a $1B capital base. Those peak Ackman years when he blew up, etc. Not sustainable over a long period of time, but all you need is a grand slam and you're pretty fucking happy

Active mutual funds should die

Anything hedged / running less than 100% net you should be comparing risk adjusted returns

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646330)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:36 PM
Author: chestnut national idiot

You're flailing here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646414)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 7:39 PM
Author: Olive painfully honest nowag

I agree active management is generally a scam, I'm just stating a couple things LPs take into account

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648311)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:41 PM
Author: Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone

sounds like a lottery ticket for rich people*

*someone else on xo came up with that phrase or referenced an article that did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646472)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:44 PM
Author: vigorous puce forum associate

lol have you really bought into this garbage or are you trying to swindle us too?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646499)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2022 2:35 PM
Author: Bat shit crazy cordovan telephone

this was me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407370)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:52 PM
Author: Provocative orange center mental disorder

Just do rentech medallion

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646551)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:18 PM
Author: Smoky well-lubricated elastic band

FCNTX and POAGRX have beat the S&P since 2009.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646274)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:21 PM
Author: Sable diverse mad cow disease roast beef

LJL at starting in 2009

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646299)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 3:23 PM
Author: Smoky well-lubricated elastic band

That actually makes it more impressive. And they both lost less in 2008 than SPY did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646316)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 7:44 PM
Author: Contagious gaming laptop

had my biggest client in POAGX w 20% of his portfolio since i started my business.

guy who's successfully chosen active funds here sup

btw fidelity funds are usually garbage. they let their hot funds get way way way too big. you should expect a fidelity fund with a good long term track record to start fading as they tend to become closet indexers. as a general rule you should avoid any actively managed fund that advertises. that includes fidelity, t rowe price, american funds, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648334)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:05 PM
Author: Smoky well-lubricated elastic band

Should I buy Splunk and AAL? all the primecap funds seem to be overweight on those two.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648444)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:10 PM
Author: Contagious gaming laptop

no idea. not an expert in security selection.

you should be very careful in sourcing ideas from the primecap funds.

1) primecap's outperformance is driven by a handful of massive winners, particularly in biotech. james marchetti was promoted to a pm a few years ago and he's behind them. more recently poagx and pogrx made a ton of money on nektar therapeutics.

2) primecap funds are allocated and managed as independent sleeves by the pms and senior analysts. you have no idea whose picks you're following.

3) just own the primecap funds bro. it's a lot easier.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648469)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:15 PM
Author: Smoky well-lubricated elastic band

Ty. What do you think of a portfolio split 50/50 POGRX and assorted dividend stocks (RDS, MO and XOM?)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648523)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:21 PM
Author: Contagious gaming laptop

it's probably underdiversified. i'm also not as bullish on primecap's ability to outperform now that poagx and pogrx are growing fucking huge.

you should not pick stocks unless you are doing it for fun OR you have really, really strong reasons to believe you can beat the market. you're basically asking if you should invest 50% of your money in one of the best actively managed stock funds and 50% in a de facto fund run by some guy who picks stocks part time for fun. you're better off just going 100% pogrx (but i wouldn't recommend that).

something like 50% pogrx, 50% schd is a reasonably diversified, low cost strategy for a us equity allocation. you can run a fun-money stock selection sleeve on the side and see how your performance stacks up over 3-5 years. if your returns are good, you can size up your personal stock selection sleeve.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648569)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 7:45 PM
Author: Pink talking stag film

this is a comparison of the market versus MUTUAL funds.

everyone knows MUTUAL funds are complete scams, they basically track the market as they can't put more than 2% into any idea, thus they own hundreds of stocks which is the same as owning the market.

add in the 5% load and 1-3% fees and of course they underperform. They get 0 carry and have no incentive to win either, they just want to get paid the fee.

gov't is at fault since tax-free 401k's make it so these fail funds have to exist. still worth it if u get to save on taxes and ur firm matches 100% of the first 6%. just make sure to convert to IRA and buy your own ETFs later.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648340)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 7:47 PM
Author: Contagious gaming laptop

mutual funds can and often do put more than 2% into a single security. wtf are you talking about.

most 401ks at major companies have a wide variety of index fund options.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648347)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 7:48 PM
Author: seedy pearly theatre personal credit line

What percentage of the advantage for index funds is that over the past 15 years massive amounts of money flowed into index funds?

Two identical companies, one on an index, one not, the one on an index has a materially higher valuation. On the order of 10-15%.

What percentage is the cost differential?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648349)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:02 PM
Author: Contagious gaming laptop

very little. active funds as a whole mirror the market but at higher cost (after all, for one active fund to be over or underweight a position, other funds must take the other sides of those bets) so transferring money from active to passive funds should not result in the outperformance of passive funds as a whole. it is possible that if a certain style of active manager is redeemed at far higher rates and that money is invested into index funds where you could see passive flows distort relative valuations but the effect is not nearly as big as looking at passive flows as a whole would imply.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648429)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 8:24 PM
Author: mauve talented heaven tank

*Refunktp smirking at the bottom 95% of money managers*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648594)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2022 2:32 PM
Author: Rose wrinkle theater stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407348)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2022 2:40 PM
Author: Slap-happy Lavender Chad Old Irish Cottage

Do non-US equity funds have a better record?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407415)