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AEI Analysis: Index Funds Beat 95% Of Active Money Managers Over 15 Year Period
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Date: March 20th, 2018 2:52 PM Author: Nighttime den sound barrier http://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-that-its-very-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-financial-professionals-cant-do-it/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646085) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:19 PM Author: vibrant arrogant garrison why won't you serve in the IDF (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646284) |
Date: March 20th, 2018 2:54 PM Author: Outnumbered Field Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646104) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:11 PM Author: Wonderful striped hyena In the next 15 years that 5% will be part of the 95% of losers and new "winners" will emerge as the new 5%. So poo poo to that idea. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646204) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:15 PM Author: Nighttime den sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646246) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:25 PM Author: 180 Giraffe Active managers can get you outsized return years
That year Paulson made $15B for investors on a $1B capital base. Those peak Ackman years when he blew up, etc. Not sustainable over a long period of time, but all you need is a grand slam and you're pretty fucking happy
Active mutual funds should die Anything hedged / running less than 100% net you should be comparing risk adjusted returns |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:36 PM Author: house-broken purple regret You're flailing here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646414) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 7:39 PM Author: 180 Giraffe I agree active management is generally a scam, I'm just stating a couple things LPs take into account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648311) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:41 PM Author: Wonderful striped hyena sounds like a lottery ticket for rich people*
*someone else on xo came up with that phrase or referenced an article that did |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:44 PM Author: Medicated up-to-no-good toilet seat lol have you really bought into this garbage or are you trying to swindle us too? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646499) |
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Date: April 26th, 2022 2:35 PM Author: Wonderful striped hyena this was me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407370) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:52 PM Author: Doobsian place of business base Just do rentech medallion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646551) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:18 PM Author: zippy death wish FCNTX and POAGRX have beat the S&P since 2009. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646274) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:21 PM Author: Fluffy karate LJL at starting in 2009 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646299) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 3:23 PM Author: zippy death wish That actually makes it more impressive. And they both lost less in 2008 than SPY did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35646316) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 7:44 PM Author: drab gas station had my biggest client in POAGX w 20% of his portfolio since i started my business.
guy who's successfully chosen active funds here sup
btw fidelity funds are usually garbage. they let their hot funds get way way way too big. you should expect a fidelity fund with a good long term track record to start fading as they tend to become closet indexers. as a general rule you should avoid any actively managed fund that advertises. that includes fidelity, t rowe price, american funds, etc. |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:05 PM Author: zippy death wish Should I buy Splunk and AAL? all the primecap funds seem to be overweight on those two. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648444) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:10 PM Author: drab gas station no idea. not an expert in security selection.
you should be very careful in sourcing ideas from the primecap funds.
1) primecap's outperformance is driven by a handful of massive winners, particularly in biotech. james marchetti was promoted to a pm a few years ago and he's behind them. more recently poagx and pogrx made a ton of money on nektar therapeutics.
2) primecap funds are allocated and managed as independent sleeves by the pms and senior analysts. you have no idea whose picks you're following.
3) just own the primecap funds bro. it's a lot easier. |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:15 PM Author: zippy death wish Ty. What do you think of a portfolio split 50/50 POGRX and assorted dividend stocks (RDS, MO and XOM?) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648523) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:21 PM Author: drab gas station it's probably underdiversified. i'm also not as bullish on primecap's ability to outperform now that poagx and pogrx are growing fucking huge.
you should not pick stocks unless you are doing it for fun OR you have really, really strong reasons to believe you can beat the market. you're basically asking if you should invest 50% of your money in one of the best actively managed stock funds and 50% in a de facto fund run by some guy who picks stocks part time for fun. you're better off just going 100% pogrx (but i wouldn't recommend that).
something like 50% pogrx, 50% schd is a reasonably diversified, low cost strategy for a us equity allocation. you can run a fun-money stock selection sleeve on the side and see how your performance stacks up over 3-5 years. if your returns are good, you can size up your personal stock selection sleeve. |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 7:45 PM Author: Violet Seedy National Gaming Laptop this is a comparison of the market versus MUTUAL funds.
everyone knows MUTUAL funds are complete scams, they basically track the market as they can't put more than 2% into any idea, thus they own hundreds of stocks which is the same as owning the market.
add in the 5% load and 1-3% fees and of course they underperform. They get 0 carry and have no incentive to win either, they just want to get paid the fee.
gov't is at fault since tax-free 401k's make it so these fail funds have to exist. still worth it if u get to save on taxes and ur firm matches 100% of the first 6%. just make sure to convert to IRA and buy your own ETFs later. |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 7:47 PM Author: drab gas station mutual funds can and often do put more than 2% into a single security. wtf are you talking about.
most 401ks at major companies have a wide variety of index fund options. |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 7:48 PM Author: Comical cordovan sex offender What percentage of the advantage for index funds is that over the past 15 years massive amounts of money flowed into index funds?
Two identical companies, one on an index, one not, the one on an index has a materially higher valuation. On the order of 10-15%.
What percentage is the cost differential? |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:02 PM Author: drab gas station very little. active funds as a whole mirror the market but at higher cost (after all, for one active fund to be over or underweight a position, other funds must take the other sides of those bets) so transferring money from active to passive funds should not result in the outperformance of passive funds as a whole. it is possible that if a certain style of active manager is redeemed at far higher rates and that money is invested into index funds where you could see passive flows distort relative valuations but the effect is not nearly as big as looking at passive flows as a whole would imply. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648429) |
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Date: March 20th, 2018 8:24 PM Author: painfully honest bistre hominid *Refunktp smirking at the bottom 95% of money managers* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#35648594) |
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Date: April 26th, 2022 2:32 PM Author: Translucent exhilarant partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407348) |
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Date: April 26th, 2022 2:40 PM Author: Ungodly bipolar tanning salon mother Do non-US equity funds have a better record? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3923785&forum_id=2#44407415) |