Facebook guys reject $750 million bid-want $2 billion
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 3rd, 2006 11:52 AM Author: Hairraiser Overrated Nursing Home Athletic Conference
Did these guys hire an investment bank to value the company?
They could call me, I'd do an offering memorandum for these guys and model the company out for them...
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5500871) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 6:31 PM Author: exhilarant brindle tank
You must be joking.
The Facebook guys have some of the most well-connected Silicon Valley VC firms invested in them.
I doubt they deal with Betas.
DEAL.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5503923) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 1:02 PM Author: Canary cowardly stage
this guy is such an idiot
and a tool in social situations to boot
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501267) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 1:06 PM Author: Irradiated Crackhouse Persian
You're probably just jealous that he's a multi-millionaire and you're not.
Yes, he was an idiot not to sell, though.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501287) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 1:35 PM Author: Canary cowardly stage
yep
edit: i just ordered graduation announcements....creepy
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501489) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 1:38 PM Author: self-absorbed newt
MySpace has more members, and the more lucrative younger market. Hence, Facebook HS, and its subsequent failure.
MySpace sold for less than $750 million, they should have taken the money.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501511) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 6:34 PM Author: exhilarant brindle tank
MySpace was also a bargain for NewsCorp.
If MySpace had stuck it out, they would've pocketed double what they got.
Facebook's value is not in the quantity of its members, but in its 85% market share of college students.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5503961) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 2:08 PM Author: Submissive 180 Set Dragon
Its the 18-25 crowd that almost every company sans Goldbon or Depends absolutely drools over.
Having a registry of 95% of college students in America (including their current interests and attitudes) is certainly worth more to businesses than MySpace. $1.5 billion more, I can't say. But people who say these dudes are idiots for not selling need a freakin clue.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501699) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 2:37 PM Author: Filthy nubile jew
I once read an article on this guy in the New York Times or some similar publication. He sounded like a complete ass.
Who honestly cares about Facebook a month after making an account? Sure, there may be a check every now and then, but the novelty quickly wears off. I have confidence that the Facebook bubble will burst within a few years.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501934) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 2:45 PM Author: Canary cowardly stage
exactly
which is why they should sell now
they are doing a shitty job of making it better anyway
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5501989) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:44 PM Author: dead lodge associate
I think it is the case, though. Not on as short of a timeline as he proposed, but certainly there is a window over which interest steadily declines to zero. Aspeople move on to full-time jobs and don't spend as much social time on the web, it definitely falls off. If facebook can somehow expand their site to be more attractive to alums, maybe they'll hold on to this market better, but they haven't done that so far.
The truth is, if facebook had huge growth potential as it currently stands, I don't think they'd sell out.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502432) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:21 PM Author: Filthy nubile jew
The timeline that I proposed was exaggerated, obviously. However, it was completely true for me. I have almost no interest in Facebook. I used it relatively often initially, which declined to almost never after a month or two. It's boring and a completely lame, unoriginal concept (not to mention a growing one). The success of Myspace and Facebook is a complete fluke. There are a million of these sites appealing to everyone's bizarre voyeuristic tendencies and desperation for hundreds of random assholes to tell them that they want to be their "friend". If people eventually gain higher standards for entertainment and communication, Facebook will fade away.
Unfortunately, I think that you're right. With each new bored member comes 100 new freshman. Not to mention, I'm sure next to no one cancels their account. There's continuous growth.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502781) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 2:48 PM Author: Lime Comical Preventive Strike
*Why* would a company want to buy facebook? What kind of services does facebook offer that renders it valuable? It isn't a search engine, and it is completely free and doesn't charge registration fees, and other than possible advertising (which 99% of students ignore anyway), there's not much one can do with facebook to make money to justify such a high sales price of $750 million.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502025) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:28 PM Author: lascivious filthpig foreskin
hmm. they already have "pulse" and that can be viewed by anyone with a fb account....
consumer research comps will want to know that kind of info, but i don't know how that would happen.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502284) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:41 PM Author: dead lodge associate
I don't think the Pulse is worth much other than as a way to increase the number of page hits visitors go through on the site and to give advertisers a sense of the general audience.
I guess you could make decent money provided really really targeted advertisement (and charging people a ton for it), but I don't think that type of thing would be appreciated by the audience of the site.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502395) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:38 PM Author: dead lodge associate
I don't think I ever said XO had a business plan, much less a better one.
I definitely sneered at Facebook and sort of continue to. They've ridden this fad particularly well, and I hadn't anticipated that in the slightest. Apparently, the prestige of being on the same service as Harvard carries a lot more weight than I'd assumed.
I didn't and still don't think the business behind their site is quite as potent as you seem to think (college students aren't "customers," for example). When they release revenue numbers, maybe I'll be surprised, but I don't think they make more than $200 million a year, and even at that rate they need to be around for ten more years to break revenue of $2 billion.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502379) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 6:51 PM Author: dead lodge associate
Do you understand how this whole money thing works?
10% profit on a $2 billion investment would be awesome. I just said that facebook probably makes less than that in *revenue* per year. If you actually think facebook will be around the 20-50 years it'll take to make that much yearly profit (minus the $2 billion input) even at triple their current size, you're weong.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5504151) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 7:44 PM Author: Titillating bronze messiness turdskin Subject: I have a pretty good idea how the *money thing* works
My point was not to suggest that facebook is worth 2 billion (or even $750 million) And I have no idea how long they will be around, I was merely attempting to illustrate how equities are valued. It is all about perceived future earnings.
If in fact they earned anywhere near $200 mill then a $750 mil price would prolly not be so hot, assuming one believed that they would be around. I assume you do not, therefore, I would not recommend you buy into their IPO, unless of course you wished to play the *bigger fool* gamble.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5504619) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:08 PM Author: dead lodge associate
I'm saying that both offers are ridiculous, regardless of potential plans. Obviously, if you can get $2 billion you should take it.
Or maybe they're making a lot more than I could fathom.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502659) |
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Date: April 4th, 2006 1:43 AM Author: vivacious hospital famous landscape painting
"Or maybe they're making a lot more than I could fathom."
They aren't making anything from what I've heard.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5508216) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:42 PM Author: Bisexual khaki crotch indian lodge Subject: HS facebook
Even more important than the marketing data on Facebook College is Facebook Highschool, the only group that is more fickle than college students.
Kind of interesting idea (am sure I will be mocked for philosophizing). But these social networking sites measure social worth like consumer goods (favorite movies, favorite books, etc), and now their commodifiable value is exactly the same. People were already commodifying themselves like an object on a shelf, and now they will be sold.
Ah well. Facebook made the right choice in not selling. Demos have a high bid price.
Phil
http://www.directorofadmissions.com
http://www.pooruniversity.com
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502412) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:49 PM Author: dead lodge associate
Facebook is pretty behind when it comes to HS stuff. MySpace and Sconex are pretty much the leaders there.
Even so, I don't know how much money any social networking site can make.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502481) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:51 PM Author: Twinkling bbw
i think its doable.
facebook has been tryig hard to make itself one-stop shop for college social networking needs - integrating photo, and new and new features all the time. Information is expensive - and when people voluntary put it up on your servers, you're definitely in luck.
Facebook isn't "going away" anytime soon.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502501) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 3:52 PM Author: Bisexual khaki crotch indian lodge Subject: Indirect
It's not the site that makes the money. It's the indirect way that they do it. The TOS for Facebook say that they can do anything with your info, which is frquently very extensive.
Facebook and Facebook HS manage this info in a better and more orderly fashion than other sites. Naturally, if Facebook implemented ads a little better, that would help them turn a profit. But it's the sale of your information that is the real benefit.
I don't think they realized it when they started either. To indulge in a little hyperbole, it's like the discovery of penicillin or something- accidental but genious.
Phil
http://www.directorofadmissions.com
http://www.pooruniversity.com
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502507)
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:09 PM Author: Bisexual khaki crotch indian lodge Subject: Not Spam
It's not Spam, it's marketing. It's the commodification of all these traits that you think "express" who you are.
EG:
Johnny hears a song on the local radio by the local band "UnKemPt", a neo grunge outfit that, poignantly, phrases exactly all the feelings he has about his ex-girlfriend. He posts them as his favorite Facebook group, as do a hundred other Johnny's, sensitive to the emotional arcs of neo-grunge. Viacom, which has paid exclusive fees to sneak into the emotional lives of Facebook users, notices that in Swifthopton College, where Johnny goes to school, "UnKemPt"
is the number seven band and climbing. They tell MTV who, in turn, tells their various ad affiliates that, with special location released cable advertisements marketing "DisSheveldt", a neo grunge outfit not dissimilar to "UnKemPt", but without a doubt richer and better looking, they can grab the naive and vulnerable Swifthopton College market. Now the cable tubes of Swifthopton and vicinity are inundated with glorious images of "DisSheveldt" hitting a bass guitar on the edge of a sewer drain and Johnny has forgotten that he ever liked "UnKemPt" because hey, who are they anyway, and "DisSheveldt" so much more effectively, attractively, and conventionally evokes the emotions he has had about his ex girlfriend who, in the wave of blasted sound, he has already begun to forget.
That's why Facebook is worth 2 billion.
Phil
http://www.directorofadmissions.com
http://www.pooruniversity.com
Phil
http://www.directorofadmissions.com
http://www.pooruniversity.com
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502669)
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Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:18 PM Author: dead lodge associate
Feel free to use the individual post Reply button.
You didn't actually, you know, lay out an argument there as to how facebook's network has a valuation in anything higher than the hundred millions (if that).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502751) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:16 PM Author: dead lodge associate
Turns out Sconex.com was acquired for $6.1 million last week. The guy who runs it is at MIT, and is a semi-acquaintance. Unless facebook does 100 times the business of this (huge) site, that valuation looks a bit weird.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502725) |
Date: April 3rd, 2006 4:35 PM Author: Multi-colored temple travel guidebook
It could have been us!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#5502906) |
Date: October 5th, 2007 1:14 PM Author: Submissive 180 Set Dragon
$15 billion bump.
The self-pwnage in this thread makes for good mid-afternoon humor.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8730580) |
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Date: October 5th, 2007 1:24 PM Author: lake new version round eye
"The company, the world's biggest software maker, is in talks to purchase as much as 5 percent of Facebook for $300 million to $500 million, the Wall Street Journal reported Sept. 24, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. That would value Palo Alto, California-based Facebook at as much as $10 billion."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.ZFte3bGgAw&refer=home
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8730633) |
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Date: October 5th, 2007 1:28 PM Author: Submissive 180 Set Dragon
"One sticky issue: A Microsoft investment could ultimately give Facebook ammunition to fuel its own rival technology and advertising platforms. Facebook has aspirations of competing with Google and Microsoft on its own, and has indicated that it might hold out for a higher valuation than Microsoft is willing to agree on -- as much as $15 billion, the people said."
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119065193646437586.html?mod=blog
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8730644) |
Date: October 6th, 2007 10:45 AM Author: silver flirting theater stage antidepressant drug
Deleting my Facebook was the best thing I ever did.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8733883) |
Date: October 6th, 2007 6:58 PM Author: Mahogany national
1.5bil is TCR.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8735649) |
Date: October 7th, 2007 1:59 PM Author: dead lodge associate
The covnentional wisdom is that buying a small stake of Facebook at an absurd valuation would be mostly a move to block the sale of the company to anyone. I don't think anyone really believes anyone else would be willing to pay $10 billion to own Facebook.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8738991) |
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Date: October 8th, 2007 1:03 PM Author: lake new version round eye
Facebook has certainly positioned itself to be extremely valuable to a company like google, who may be able to use the massave amount of (arguably) valid informaion about its users to target advertising.
I have serious doubts as to how well google's algorithms could match advertisers with customers as it is, but as this technology progresses, facebook's information could be worth 2, 3, 4 thousand dollars per person.
P.S. What're you up to these days? (I know that you have no clue who I am, but we used to do math problems on PR together.)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8743034) |
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Date: October 13th, 2007 1:12 AM Author: dead lodge associate
I need to come back to this board more often. I'm coding for OkCupid.com right now.
So as not prolong this argument, I'll keep it short: selling ads for search is *nothing* like selling ads for a casual social network, no matter your targetting technology (and trust me, Google's is better than anyone's will ever be anyway). Here's someone who agrees with me: http://valleywag.com/tech/jason-calacanis/why-facebook-isnt-google-in-100-words-309958.php
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8761642) |
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Date: October 19th, 2007 9:40 AM Author: lake new version round eye
There's no need to come back to this board. I only come around looking for schaddenfreude opportunities with these assholes who took the HYP debate annoyingly far and consequently killed the board.
I agree with the problems in advertising on social networks. (The WSJ had this today: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119273558149563775.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one ). But it still feels like there's tons of potential in owning facebook's database of user information.
Good luck with okcupid and all. I'm looking for you to do big things.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8787106) |
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Date: October 19th, 2007 10:22 PM Author: Yellow insanely creepy church building french chef
Facebook is important because it means that, even though it's 10 years on, Harvard still "gets" that whole, you know, computer thing.
We're rootin for ya H!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8789970) |
Date: October 19th, 2007 10:20 PM Author: Yellow insanely creepy church building french chef Subject: how to beat facebook?
iphone sdk is about to come out...hint hint. this should be interesting.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=392900&forum_id=1#8789962) |
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