YOU HEARD IT HERE 1ST: HOUSING CRASH INCOMING
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 17th, 2018 12:19 PM Author: Slate Territorial Liquid Oxygen
he's right but mostly in coastal cities.
overbuilding + mortgage rates spiking = housing prices down.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36069322) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 3:27 PM Author: Glittery confused kitchen
Norcal - between SF and PA. The sellers in my highly desirable neighborhood really stretched their asking prices to the limit, IMO. Seeing some slight reductions, like ~$100-200k and certain homes not selling.
I don't think there will be a crash or a drop, but I don't think the prices will continue to rise at the 5-10% clip they've been; at least in our neighborhood which is established and where people strive to live.
That said, our rental property is a 3/2 in south san jose that is, per zillow and redfin, now worth more than $1mm. That shit I could easily see coming down, homes around that one back in ~2008-10 dropped to the low $400's. I have a hard time believing it's doubled in value in 8-10 years.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201794) |
Date: May 17th, 2018 2:57 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
Prices are at record highs and incomes are not keeping pace with the rising housing prices.
There is low inventory with high demand.
People are buying at the outer credit limits, making offers above asking price, leaving themselves with zero disposable income.
Something will happen that will cause all of these people who can *barely* afford their mortgages to default. What will it be?
It will be something that no one is predicting now, but that will lead to sudden unemployment.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070478) |
Date: May 17th, 2018 3:56 PM Author: Shimmering heady organic girlfriend
Not in the good areas.
If prices dropped 5% in any major metro areas, properties would be scooped up quick and the "crash" would be over.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070903) |
Date: May 17th, 2018 3:59 PM Author: very tactful salmon gunner sanctuary
(guy who will bump this thread three years later and declare himself winner)
You heard it here first folks, we saw it coming YEARS ago.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070917) |
Date: May 17th, 2018 4:25 PM Author: Magenta Beady-eyed Lodge
100% concur with the retarded spic OP
literally hundreds of houses put on redfin and zillow in my area in just the last week not flame
Landlord i found out is putting my property on the market also through a backdoor channel I have locally and he lied to all the tenants faces.
This one is gonna be big, saddle up seabiscuits
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36071154) |
Date: May 21st, 2018 2:12 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
Check out this graph of the San Diego Home Valuation Index through 2016.
http://karabrem.com/files/2018/03/housing_update_jun_17-1.png
One, it shows we are due for a crash.
Two, look at how the last crash was preceded by two perfect ten-year cycles. Wondering if those cycles were manipulated.
Anyways, that red line has kept climbing since 2016.
I just put the brakes on our home buying plans. We are now officially waiting for the crash.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36097539) |
Date: June 7th, 2018 1:52 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
It is starting. The company I work for originates mortgage loans then sells them on the secondary market.
Before we sell them off we will only service the first mortgage payment for the borrowers. The loan is sold before the second payment is due.
Got an email yesterday from accounting. Four borrowers have defaulted on their first payments for April and May. Three in April and one in May.
Accounting was wondering what to do because the borrowers are not returning her calls.
I asked my general manager whether this has happened before and he said no.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201158) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 2:21 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
The entire mortgage industry right now is a house of cards. Borrowers are stretched incredibly thin.
Home prices keep spiraling up but incomes are not matching it. Proles are putting themselves into homes/mortgages where they have zero disposable income left after their mortgage payment.
What happens when the water heater breaks? When there is a medical emergency?
The second the economy takes a bad turn the house of cards will come tumbling down and that is when my black fiance and I will scoop something up.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201384) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 2:45 PM Author: Vibrant spot
I don't disagree, especially with regards to incomes not climbing fast enough (especially among young households) to meet the higher prices. The counterargument might be that there are a lot more buyers with all cash or mostly-cash in the market now. That, combined with healthy population growth, lack of construction, and a much smaller shit-loan market, especially in metro areas, makes it a lot less likely that there will be an epic '08 style meltdown.
The loan delinquency rate is still ticking down and the median down-payment is near its highest rate. I think the next crash is going to come from somewhere else (maybe political-sovereign debt crisis).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201524) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 2:55 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
I don't think that there is going to be an '08 style meltdown again.
The housing market is cyclical and we are long overdue for a correction.
People are panic-buying worried that prices will never come down.
They will come down and I believe they will come down soon.
I know, there is Low Inventory. Got it. But *something* is going to happen and the vast majority of people are not going to predict what that something is.
There are one or two guys out there screaming bloody murder right now and after the crash or correction these dudes will be saying, "Ha! I was right I told you so," while me and my black fiance will be moving into our new single family home that we bought at foreclosure.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201582) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 3:22 PM Author: Magenta Beady-eyed Lodge
this coming crash won't be as singular on real estate as '08
but may be larger considering student debt, fiat USD instability vs China, Social/Security insolvency, pension state issues etc
I think the sum of what is to come could potentially be as bad if not worse - i expect mass defaults on several frontlines, millennials are already not paying back credit cards, if the masses start moving whats left of their money into crypto and not paying things back ljl
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201752) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 3:49 PM Author: Lascivious jew
"something will happen that will cause the market to crash"
Wow... You're like a Cassandra
I love listening to this reddit tier talk as if it's insightful in any way
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201953) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 4:13 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
I'm just broke and know that I can't afford *anything* in this market while I make double the AGI for this area.
I don't pretend to know when the crash is coming exactly or what is going to cause it.
But a crash is coming, it is coming *soon*, and now is NOT the time to buy.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202073) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 5:53 PM Author: laughsome sandwich electric furnace
This is especially the case with lenders that do government backed FHA loans, which basically require zero down. By definition FHA borrowers are typically way less credit worthy than normal people that put 20% down on a conventional loan. Most of the big banks left the FHA lending space after the 2008 meltdown because Obama's DOJ kept coming after them with the False Claims Act. They are starting to come back, but in the mean time, little mortgage companies like Chilmata's have filled the FHA void.
I am a little shocked to see Chilmata talking about one month defaults being caused by rising home prices. If the loan is properly underwritten, the appraised home price is compared to the borrower's incoome, to make sure that they can actually afford the mortgage. It makes no sense that one month defaults within a single company would be tied to the larger rise in home prices.
Chilmata: pro tip, if you are suddenly having these problems one month out, start looking into things. The loans sold to investors 2-6 months ago (and/or the GSAs) are likely shit too, and you may have some buybacks or indemnity claims coming your way.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202656) |
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Date: June 7th, 2018 6:03 PM Author: Spruce Travel Guidebook Hell
I am personally pre-approved for a $375,000 mortgage through my company which would be FHA.
I should be qualified for $300K tops. Even at $300K when you factor in HOA fees and Mortgage Insurance, I would be stretched incredibly thin. I would have nothing left over at the end of the month.
I have no idea how lending me $375K for a condo would be considered a QM, but it is, somehow, and that is what I see being the root of the problem.
In 2008, the issue was with ARMs. When rates went up, the monthly mortgage payments went well above what the borrowers could afford and they defaulted en masse.
Today, we are putting all these people into mortgages that have fixed rates, but they are at their absolute max spending limit.
Any little thing could cause any one homeowner to default because they are almost all on super shaky ground.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202701)
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Date: June 7th, 2018 3:55 PM Author: dun death wish
Only in certain cities like Denver, Phoenix, Vegas, etc. Older more established cities like LA, NYC, Chicago, DC, Philly, Boston, etc typically don't have volatile housing markets.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201978) |
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