overbuilding + mortgage rates spiking = housing prices down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36069322)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-is-getting-in-on-the-house-flipping-game-1526227200

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36069922)

I don't think there will be a crash or a drop, but I don't think the prices will continue to rise at the 5-10% clip they've been; at least in our neighborhood which is established and where people strive to live.

That said, our rental property is a 3/2 in south san jose that is, per zillow and redfin, now worth more than $1mm. That shit I could easily see coming down, homes around that one back in ~2008-10 dropped to the low $400's. I have a hard time believing it's doubled in value in 8-10 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201794)

There is low inventory with high demand.

People are buying at the outer credit limits, making offers above asking price, leaving themselves with zero disposable income.

Something will happen that will cause all of these people who can *barely* afford their mortgages to default. What will it be?

It will be something that no one is predicting now, but that will lead to sudden unemployment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070478)

If prices dropped 5% in any major metro areas, properties would be scooped up quick and the "crash" would be over.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070903)

Because so many people will feel confident about their paychecks with the housing market slumping?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36071171)

You heard it here first folks, we saw it coming YEARS ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36070917)

This month: https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/us-housing-market-crash/

2017: https://nypost.com/2017/09/02/are-we-headed-for-another-housing-collapse/

2016: https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/2016-05-12/are-we-heading-for-another-housing-crisis

2015: http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/04/real_estate/real-estate-housing-bubble/index.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36071142)

literally hundreds of houses put on redfin and zillow in my area in just the last week not flame

Landlord i found out is putting my property on the market also through a backdoor channel I have locally and he lied to all the tenants faces.

This one is gonna be big, saddle up seabiscuits

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36071154)

http://karabrem.com/files/2018/03/housing_update_jun_17-1.png

One, it shows we are due for a crash.

Two, look at how the last crash was preceded by two perfect ten-year cycles. Wondering if those cycles were manipulated.

Anyways, that red line has kept climbing since 2016.

I just put the brakes on our home buying plans. We are now officially waiting for the crash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36097539)

Before we sell them off we will only service the first mortgage payment for the borrowers. The loan is sold before the second payment is due.

Got an email yesterday from accounting. Four borrowers have defaulted on their first payments for April and May. Three in April and one in May.

Accounting was wondering what to do because the borrowers are not returning her calls.

I asked my general manager whether this has happened before and he said no.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201158)

Home prices keep spiraling up but incomes are not matching it. Proles are putting themselves into homes/mortgages where they have zero disposable income left after their mortgage payment.

What happens when the water heater breaks? When there is a medical emergency?

The second the economy takes a bad turn the house of cards will come tumbling down and that is when my black fiance and I will scoop something up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201384)

The loan delinquency rate is still ticking down and the median down-payment is near its highest rate. I think the next crash is going to come from somewhere else (maybe political-sovereign debt crisis).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201524)

The housing market is cyclical and we are long overdue for a correction.

People are panic-buying worried that prices will never come down.

They will come down and I believe they will come down soon.

I know, there is Low Inventory. Got it. But *something* is going to happen and the vast majority of people are not going to predict what that something is.

There are one or two guys out there screaming bloody murder right now and after the crash or correction these dudes will be saying, "Ha! I was right I told you so," while me and my black fiance will be moving into our new single family home that we bought at foreclosure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201582)

but may be larger considering student debt, fiat USD instability vs China, Social/Security insolvency, pension state issues etc

I think the sum of what is to come could potentially be as bad if not worse - i expect mass defaults on several frontlines, millennials are already not paying back credit cards, if the masses start moving whats left of their money into crypto and not paying things back ljl

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201752)

Wow... You're like a Cassandra

I love listening to this reddit tier talk as if it's insightful in any way

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201953)

If you're so certain of an imminent crash, put your money where your mouth is and buy a massive put spread on the indexes and VIX calls. You won't because you're a giant pussy with no skin in the game.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202017)

I don't pretend to know when the crash is coming exactly or what is going to cause it.

But a crash is coming, it is coming *soon*, and now is NOT the time to buy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202073)

I am a little shocked to see Chilmata talking about one month defaults being caused by rising home prices. If the loan is properly underwritten, the appraised home price is compared to the borrower's incoome, to make sure that they can actually afford the mortgage. It makes no sense that one month defaults within a single company would be tied to the larger rise in home prices.

Chilmata: pro tip, if you are suddenly having these problems one month out, start looking into things. The loans sold to investors 2-6 months ago (and/or the GSAs) are likely shit too, and you may have some buybacks or indemnity claims coming your way.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202656)

I should be qualified for $300K tops. Even at $300K when you factor in HOA fees and Mortgage Insurance, I would be stretched incredibly thin. I would have nothing left over at the end of the month.

I have no idea how lending me $375K for a condo would be considered a QM, but it is, somehow, and that is what I see being the root of the problem.

In 2008, the issue was with ARMs. When rates went up, the monthly mortgage payments went well above what the borrowers could afford and they defaulted en masse.

Today, we are putting all these people into mortgages that have fixed rates, but they are at their absolute max spending limit.

Any little thing could cause any one homeowner to default because they are almost all on super shaky ground.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202701)

Toronto crashing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201651)

"I want my money back. Did you hear me Michael? Motherf*cker!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36201832)

Orange County also got hammered and OC has a more stable housing market than LA.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3979192&forum_id=2#36202042)