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justify will win triple crown (june 9)?
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Date: May 21st, 2018 11:50 AM Author: Transparent Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096271) |
Date: May 21st, 2018 11:56 AM Author: lilac ceo public bath Barely won last race. Someone will catch and pass him on Belmont's longer track . Same thing happened to smarty jones (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096339) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:02 PM Author: jet national his achilles heel is that he isn't bred particularly well for a mile and a half.
he also is coming off a really tough race where he was challenged hard the whole way, plus he's run a ton in recent weeks after being very lightly raced previously.
his preakness time was slow. not his best race, though kudos to him for battling off good magic.
he certainly has a chance to win the belmont, but watch out for tenfold, who has great distance breeding; mendelsohn, who will be fresh after taking off the preakness; bravazo, who had a great late burst in the preakness; and other derby horses who will be fresher. |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:03 PM Author: Transparent Point my belmont pick is mendelsohn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096416) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:08 PM Author: jet national me too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096443) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 10:31 PM Author: Stimulating Stage Corn Cake This horse has been pulled from competing in the race. Besides, it was a paper tiger with an inflated speed rating, a very weak prep season (weak as fuck fields). He never once ate a speck of mud, never has had his heart put to the test or had to run from anywhere but in the head. On top of this, the track where this horse turned heads is so fast it sees it's own track record being broken like twice a month. And it has sent, I think it's been, fourteen or so horses to the Belmont in the seven years since it (the track where Mendelshon awed) has been open, but the best any of these horse did was fourth in the Belmont. "But but, look at those fractions, see how blazing fast they are." Forget it. It's a notoriously bad prepper for north American dirt. Hofman always was liklier to pick off Justify, anyway, with loads of real distance in Hofman's pedigree. |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 10:44 PM Author: jet national i think you're being overly harsh on mendelssohn.
he was the most expensive yearling of his auction year at $3M and has tremendous bloodlines (very low dosage, also, indicating he should handle the distance).
he's a big horse who kept getting stronger and improving.
he won the breeders' cup juvenile.
he had a shitty draw and trip in the derby and seemed thrown off by the number of horses and traffic.
you can write off his 18 1/2 length win in the UAE Derby due to weak competition, but if you were looking for a horse other than justify, you could do worse than take a roll of the dice on him.
anyway, doesn't matter now since he's not running.
i took tenfold in the preakness as a non-justify longshot (actually was the longest on the board) because he was very lightly raced and has curlin and tapit in his bloodlines (arguably the two best modern sires). it ended up being a good pick. he ran a good race and finished in the money. he could be even more dangerous in the belmont, because he's bred to run all day. distance shouldn't be an issue.
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:02 PM Author: Concupiscible slap-happy hall xo meetup at the belmont? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096409) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:03 PM Author: jet national i've been to several belmont stakes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096414) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:09 PM Author: Vibrant saffron locale *belmonts stake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096454) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:09 PM Author: dead rusted plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096458) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 12:09 PM Author: Transparent Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36096464) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 5:47 PM Author: jet national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36099243) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 8:22 PM Author: anal mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36161682) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 9:25 PM Author: light impertinent doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36161976) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 8:22 PM Author: anal mad-dog skullcap belmont is 180. clusterfuck getting out of there on the lirr tho (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36161684) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 8:24 PM Author: jet national absolutely brutal. one of the times i went it was like 102 degrees and there were 120k people there. now that was an awful exit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36161691) |
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Date: May 31st, 2018 9:21 PM Author: anal mad-dog skullcap ouch. it's waaaayyy the fuck worse than leaving yankee stadium or arthur ashe / shea. i guess less people and everyone isnt leaving at the exact same time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36161952) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 6:28 PM Author: Transparent Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36099597) |
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Date: May 21st, 2018 6:31 PM Author: Overrated bateful sweet tailpipe foreskin he can only run in slop and belmont is much longer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36099623) |
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Date: May 22nd, 2018 8:47 PM Author: Stimulating Stage Corn Cake That he crushes in slop is a sign of his overall surefootedness. Horses have something in their legs and especially their feet akin to proprioceptivity, with some seeming "all thumbs" even on level ground, while others seem always well connected to what's under their feet whether they're hunting a fox across slopes or measuring their approach steps to some jump in a ring. A horse who handles slop well (and can carry great speed long distances, as Justify does) usually handles itself well on dry track too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982790&forum_id=2#36108015) |