Reminder: the Republican Party is still on the verge of total collapse nationall
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: June 22nd, 2018 10:54 AM Author: stirring deranged messiness step-uncle's house
For example, California used to be a republican state before massive illegal immigration turned it permanently blue. Doesn't matter the issue or the person (sorry Arnold), people are generally voting tribally and the state is blue no matter what. That process is happening throughout the southwest now - Arizona and Nevada and New Mexico are all teetering - and is in the process of turning Texas purple. And these cynical libs know how close it is to resulting in a permanent Democrat leadership in national elections : trump lost the national vote by millions to Hillary , so did McCain and Romney in their elections. The electoral college and in-state gerrymandering that republicans use to their benefit only work to a certain extent.
Republicans control the presidency and have a majority in congress, and I've never thought they were closer to total collapse than they are now. That's not to say trump won't win 2020 and republicans in congress won't win 2018, they might, but the demographic trends and voting patterns are extremely clear
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290060) |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:52 AM Author: Maize candlestick maker death wish
Trump lost the popular vote ONLY because of California, not if you look at the rest of the country. By that same metric Obama had gaped Romney in 2012.
Trump's loss in NV was pretty narrow and NM has been almost completely blue since the 90s, though if you parse out the vote for Gary Johnson, Trump came fairly close there as well.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290487) |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:07 PM Author: self-centered sneaky criminal degenerate
for example, california....
*stops reading*
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290596) |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:43 PM Author: unholy roast beef
California was trending blue because of the post-Cold War military reduction and with the decline of the aerospace industry. Republicans threw gasoline on the fire with their race-baiting prop 187. It worked in the short-term for Pete Wilson but fucked them for at least a generation there.
If only there was some modern parallel ...
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290870) |
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Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:55 PM Author: unholy roast beef
The data cannot be denied. It does not matter who says it.
Y'all are living on a 2-year coke binge. When the party is over and the lights come on, you're fucked. Hope it was fun.
Nice wall faggots.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293584) |
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Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:24 PM Author: Swollen alcoholic kitchen
Of course it can be denied. Nowrasteh isn't that smart and there are a ton of holes in his argument.
-He simply assumes the massive growth in California's Hispanic vote from 1994 through the early 2000s was entirely due to the "activation" of Hispanics by 187, and they subsequently voted Democratic because of that. He offers no serious evidence for this.
-He assumes a massive stickiness to California Hispanics' behavior after a single referendum, without explaining why exactly we should do so.
-His Texas/California comparison is weak as shit. In 1994, Bush runs on a pro-immigration message and does badly with Hispanics. In 1998 he runs on the same thing but does way better. Maybe he was just a more popular candidate! And of course, if you actually check the electoral results, it's clear that Bush was just more popular across the board in 1998. The same can easily be said for California's 1998 election, where the Hispanic vote was way more Democratic in part because the ENTIRE vote was way more Democratic.
-In Figure 5, he tries to blame Prop 187 for greater Democratic presidential success in California, but a non-retard looking at the chart would immediately notice the Democratic surge came in 1992, before Prop 187.
-In Figure 6, he alleges that Hispanics became more Democratic because of Wilson's anti-immigration rhetoric...yet Hispanics simply lurched up in Democratic affiliation at the exact same time as white people. Also, there isn't a big increase in Democratic affiliation in 1994, even though that was the year the GOP supposedly "lost" California through Prop 187. Wouldn't there be a more noticeable shift then, rather than a very gradual rise that might, say, reflect a transformation of the voter pool?
More on this, if you want to pay for it:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-017-9400-1
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293754) |
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Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:48 PM Author: unholy roast beef
Nice piggyback. Remind me again, when is the IG report that matters? The next one or the one after that?
As to his points collectively, his argument is that a sudden and dramatic change happened in 1992 and continued and had nothing to do with race, a proxy for prop 187. A dumb point obviously.
Why then was there not swing back in in 2004, a GOP year?
Bottom line: W knew what he was doing and Texas is still GOP because of it while Wilson threw gas on an existing fire nd got fucked. Trump will do for Texas what Wilson did for California. Enjoy Senator Beto.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293897) |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:02 PM Author: smoky gay wizard
(guy who doesn’t realize that the Democrat and Republican parties are being permanently realigned)
Latinos don’t give a fuck about immigrants once they are in the door. Trumpism/the new GOP will appeal to them because we are now the only ones advocating for the interests of the working class.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294470) |
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